Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

So here is the setup. Was just in the PS $5.50 Turbo rebuy for the WSOP $160 Double Shootout.

Top 17 make it, next 4 get small payouts.

22 Left in tourney, running Hand for Hand

I am the absolute Big Stack in the tourney at this point. No question I can fold my way in. Blinds are 4K-8K, about to go up to 8K-12K. I have close to 90K. There are many short stacks.

Folded to me in the SB. Hero has 23os. BB to my left is a short stack. He has 5K after posting. If he folds, and the blinds go up, he will be all-in next hand. I am not looking to help him (or hurt myself). Do I push with 23os? and likely feed him chips? or do I fold and definetely feed him chips - folding gets his stack to about 19k before posting the next hand's SB. If I fold the guy makes it. I make it either way.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (7 handed) converter

CO (t11340)
Button (t32325)
Hero (t88240)
BB (t13520)
UTG (t29245)
MP1 (t33290)
MP2 (t8941)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">

So what do you do?

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

fold, you said yourself you get in either way.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Build a time machine, go back in time 5 minutes before this hand, put yourself on 'post and fold', grab a beer and fix yourself a sandwich.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Does your answer change if I have AA, or at this point should I just not interfere, and let the small stacks fight it out?

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold, you said yourself you get in either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may have a big stack, but I think you have zero fold equity with someone in desperation mode.

If BB knows that blinds are going up next hand, he will blinded out as SB anyways. He might as well make his stand now and hope to double up to survive another orbit.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

FOLD. You don't need to be the table Cop and bust the table out. BB knows he can't fold to the seat and if he has 2 cards he should call which beat 3 high.

You already said it- you can fold to the seat and I assume that is the goal. You must keep the goal in mind.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Post and fold until you win your seat, and it's not even close. You're in. Just win.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

If you had built the time machine, you would have altered the space time continuum and the hands you got would be different, so, no.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Assume he calls you with no matter what he has (since he will be allin on the next hand anyway). You win 32% of the time, so your chip equity is:

-13520 * .68 + 13520 * .32 = -9193.6 + 4326.4 = -4867.2.

If you fold, your chip equity is -4000. So if he always calls, fold.

Now, assume he calls x% of the time (not dependant on his cards as much as on whether you think he will try to fold into the seat). Your chip equity is thus (-4867.2) * x + 8000 * (1-x) = 8000 - 12876.2x &gt; -4000 or x &lt; 93.26%. So if you think he will fold 7% of the time then you should push.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

well of course if you have AA's that is different and you you have a chance to actually eliminate a player without risking a big part of your stack with a hand that is a huge favorite to win.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
Build a time machine, go back in time 5 minutes before this hand, put yourself on 'post and fold', grab a beer and fix yourself a sandwich.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter? Even if he pushes here and loses he still gets his seat.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Right. Therefore, the sandwich and beer are +EV.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
-13520 * .68 + 13520 * .32 = -9193.6 + 4326.4 = -4867.2.

If you fold, your chip equity is -4000. So if he always calls, fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Without being quick with the math, I was trying to figure out where I was better off. My gut told me Chip EV was - with a push, even with the overlay.

But I also was thinking:

I don't care if I lose the hand! If I win the hand it is over (or nearly so), but if lose the hand, I still win.

I know you can't do that type of negative ev calling indefinetly, but I could not imagine the 5K of chips affecting my chances at all.

That is obnoxious logic.

I pushed, and my luckbox was not empty yet. He called, and was momentarily pleased when He flipped up A5 vs 23, but then there is that nasty 3 on the flop and he doesn't improve.

3 people went out that hand (two at other tables), one more hand at our new table and it was over. I felt a little bad for the guy, but he would have been happy if his hand held up...

I need to go to a good deed and get some more positive Karma. Be back later.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
-13520 * .68 + 13520 * .32 = -9193.6 + 4326.4 = -4867.2.

If you fold, your chip equity is -4000. So if he always calls, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at your math a bit closer, I don't think you took into account that I am in the SB, and there was about 1-2K in antes, so assuming he calls, I am getting about 3:1 or more for my 5K bet.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

I did take into account that you are the SB, that's why I compared the -4800 or whatever to -4000 instead of 0. However, I did not take into account the antes; with 1000 in antes you should always push. And then get yourself a beer and a sandwich.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
well of course if you have AA's that is different and you you have a chance to actually eliminate a player without risking a big part of your stack with a hand that is a huge favorite to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is wrong too. AA is still a fold, because of the crap everyone else is playing. Nothing to gain everything to lose if you are sure you can fold into a seat. This is a situation where it is now correct to stall on every decision. And like Augie said it really isn't close.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is wrong too. AA is still a fold, because of the crap everyone else is playing. Nothing to gain everything to lose if you are sure you can fold into a seat. This is a situation where it is now correct to stall on every decision. And like Augie said it really isn't close

[/ QUOTE ]

Is risking less that 10% of your stack considered everything to lose here as a huge favorite with a chance to knock someone out?

If BB had a bigger stack I would fold AA's here but not for what is essentially 10% of your chips where even if I lose I still 5 orbits to see 5 players eliminated.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

This comes down to whether you put a price on time. I'm in no hurry to see the tourney end. I've already qualified and I'm not taking any sort of risk of doubling anyone up (no matter how small it may be). Let the short stacks fight over it.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold, you said yourself you get in either way.

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If he gets in either way, what's the rationale for preferring a fold over a push?

If we want to analyze this theoretically, first let's acknowledge that it isn't really a 100% chance of winning the seat by folding, it's closer to 99.999%. If we push with our 3-2, does this probability increase to 99.9991%, or does it decrease to 99.9989%?

I don't know the answer, and for practical purposes it doesn't really matter; just do whatever you feel like.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

I think MBE hit this one. If it doesn't make a difference, then it doesn't make a difference.

don\'t be stupid
 

just fold your way into it.. why are you even thinking about this?