I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

Button is a loose-passive type, bit of a slowplayer as many loose-passives are, also a big time calling station.

I had just made a big bluff a couple hands earlier, figured it was time to slow down . . . on the other hand, I think I was just throwing money away by not betting the turn or raising his turn bet. I guess I was afraid he'd call down with A-high. How often do you bet here? How often do you checkraise? I think both are +EV if done `1/3rd of the time.

It was 5-handed, loose-passive button open-limped, SB completed, I checked in the BB with T7o.

Flop comes something like 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] . I make my first mistake and check after the SB checks, the button checks as well.

The turn is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB checks, I check, Button bets, SB folds, and I fail to value-raise with my T-high and wuss out.

Now, I can't make a move here EVERY time, but I think it's +EV to do so some of the time.

So, a question for all you out there. In a situation where a loose-passive open-limps, schmoe SB completes, and you have utter trash:

1) What % of the time do you bet this flop?
2) IF the flop is checked through, what % of the time do you bet the turn after it pairs? What % of the time do you try to checkraise the almost-inevitable button bet instead?

I think the proper %s should be something like 30%, and then given flop is checked through, something like bet the turn 30% of the time and checkraise the turn 20% of the time. Maybe lean towards the checkraise if you think the button might call a turn and river bet with A-high at this point.

Yes, it's a small pot, but NOBODY seems interested in it . . .

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I bet this turn almost 100% of the time.

-Mike

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn almost 100% of the time.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure that's closer to correct than 30%. I probably bet here more than 30% of the time, come to think of it.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Button is a loose-passive type, bit of a slowplayer as many loose-passives are, also a big time calling station.

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r your T high would be pretty awful given that read

I bet the flop 90% of the time, and the turn maybe 30%

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I bet the turn nearly 100% too. Flop is more situational, but I still bet it at least 50% I'd guess.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I probably bet the flop 60-70% of the time, and bet the turn about 90% if the flop is checked through. I've been playing small stakes weak-tight crap games on full tilt recently though.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I would bet the flop rarely. Less then 20%. A loose passive is going to call most of time he probably has overs. So he calls now what.
The turn I am betting almost every time. So easy to take the pot down. Looks like a check raise gone bad
very unlikely improvement for anyone. Small pot little invested, LP's are giving this pot up most of the time and you are getting 3-2 on your money. I think you take this pot down well over 50% of the time.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I think the proper %s should be something like 30%, and then given flop is checked through, something like bet the turn 30% of the time and checkraise the turn 20% of the time.

Grisgra,

How are you arriving at these numbers? Is this just a pure feel thing, or is there some analysis involved?

thanks,
gm

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

do you fold if you get raised on the turn by a tricky player? (when you get something 'decent' like A-high)

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the proper %s should be something like 30%, and then given flop is checked through, something like bet the turn 30% of the time and checkraise the turn 20% of the time.

Grisgra,

How are you arriving at these numbers? Is this just a pure feel thing, or is there some analysis involved?

thanks,
gm

[/ QUOTE ]

Pure feel -- basically just mixing up the game. Seems that if I bet at these ragged flops every single time, people will respect my bets less and less -- if I roll over and let these ragged flops go by me some of the time, then the times I bet, I must have something, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I probably bet the flop about 30% of the time, but regret not doing it more. On the other hand, I bet the turn about 90% of the time.

But do you really think a check/raise on the turn is a value move? I understand making the move as a bluff (though I'd think that's hard to pull off), but value?

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

Joking about the raising-for-value thing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But I think it might make more money than betting the turn, as even a loose-passive will almost always take a shot from the button after the flop AND turn have been checked through.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn almost 100% of the time.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. I would also bet if the turn had been a small blank.

Krishan

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Button is a loose-passive type, bit of a slowplayer as many loose-passives are, also a big time calling station.

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r your T high would be pretty awful given that read

I bet the flop 90% of the time, and the turn maybe 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give more details on your thinking? About both the flop bet (which I make maybe 25% of the time) and the turn bet which I think is super easy given noone seems interested and the top card paired.

Krishan

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

Doh, I should have gotten the joke. Just goes to show you how little confidence I have in my ability to figure short-handed tables out right now.

So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't done it often to know, but unless the button has a weak ace, I can't see him calling the turn, and he might not call the river either. With a weak ace, he might call the turn and the river anyway. So basically I see no holding on his part where he folds to my turn bet but not to my turn raise. Obviously I invest more money with the turn raise, but I earn another bet in there as well -- I guess the turn raise is best if it'll work 50%+ of the time. Whether it will, I dunno!

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Doh, I should have gotten the joke. Just goes to show you how little confidence I have in my ability to figure short-handed tables out right now.

So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thinking is correct. Betting out is vastly superior to check-raise bluffing.

Krishan

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

"So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV."

He is loose passive- he open limped on the button- ie he stinks and is not a thinking player. When he gets check raised on the turn he thinks- oh crap i just got caught stealing. And folds. He doesn't think "what could the BB have that he check check/r with here?".
It also puts one more BB in the pot (though it risks two to win it so it has to work a good % of the time).

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

So assuming LP button calls your turn bet, what % of the time is it correct EV to bet the river when a brick hits?

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

are you asking when you bet out and get called, or when your c/r gets called?

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
"So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV."

He is loose passive- he open limped on the button- ie he stinks and is not a thinking player. When he gets check raised on the turn he thinks- oh crap i just got caught stealing. And folds. He doesn't think "what could the BB have that he check check/r with here?".
It also puts one more BB in the pot (though it risks two to win it so it has to work a good % of the time).

[/ QUOTE ]

Tolbiny,

Do you ever do this? I can't imagine making cr bluff moves against loose passives is better than just leading the turn. Admittedly this is a perfect spot but still. Thanks,

Krishan

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I have done this- but not a lot. This situation is basically perfect since the turn card could not have helped his opponent.
its def not standard, and runs into problems when th ebutton is the type of guy to limp with A6o and then call this c/r. Now your in trouble on the river.
What i do like about this line is that a loose passive will start checking this turn around what ever percentage of the time you don't bet. Letting you hit your 6 outer more oftenthan you should.

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

I agree with leading out on the turn close to 100% of the time. Assuming you do, and are called by the button, what % of the time is correct to bet at the river when another brick hits?

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with leading out on the turn close to 100% of the time. Assuming you do, and are called by the button, what % of the time is correct to bet at the river when another brick hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

near 0 for me.

Krishan

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

Krishan,

Could you give me some explanation on your answer?

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Krishan,

Could you give me some explanation on your answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is 4 BB. I got called on the turn. I don't think I'll get a fold better than 25%. I almost always check fold.

People make the mistake of following through on plans that go awry all the time. My bet on the turn is profitable. It get's all of it's profit from folding your opponent or getting called and spiking a pair. Once you get to the river with nothing, think fondly of the Slansky bucks you make and check fold. You can't squeeze EV out of a -EV situation which is what the river is after a turn bluff in a small pot.

Krishan

Re: I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.
 

Ok thank you, I was viewing the 4bb pot and feeling like a bluff 25% of the time was the right play. However, I see your point about it being a -EV situation therefore is a losing play to bet the river.

Thnx again.