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-   -   For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=242419)

Rick Diesel 04-29-2005 04:46 PM

For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
I have been seriously considering quitting the regular job to become a full-time poker pro. I have been charting my play over the last 6 months, but this is still a ridiculously small sample to work with. I have been playing exclusively SNGs on Stars, ranging from the $55 to the $109.

Here are my stats over the last 6 months.

1,000 SNGs
23.7% ROI (variance between $55 and $109 is immaterially small, but I actually do slightly better at the 109s)
3 tables at a time
Average a little less than 1 hour per SNG

So I did some math, and found out that if I maintain my current ROI, playing 3 tables at a time, for 9 hours a day, 5 days a week, 45 weeks per year, playing an even mixture of $55 and $109s, I would make approximately $115,000 in a year.

Now my question is:
Is a 23.7% ROI sustainable while playing 3 tables at a time, 45 hours a week, for 45 weeks?

Additional results: In case this helps in any way, in the 1,000 SNGs, i have the following places...
1st - 160
2nd - 142
3rd - 138

Thank you for any comments.

Reef 04-29-2005 04:52 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
45 hrs a week is the perfect recipe for burnout. I'd try your figures again with 20-30 hrs/week.

edit: I'm in college and don't play for a living

k000k 04-29-2005 04:53 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
23.7% is very sustainable, you might even be able to improve it.. I dont know 1st hand, but from what I understand, very good players can be at 35-40% ROI.. In the smaller 10+1 and 20+2's that I play anyway..

Rick Diesel 04-29-2005 05:00 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
23.7% is very sustainable, you might even be able to improve it.. I dont know 1st hand, but from what I understand, very good players can be at 35-40% ROI.. In the smaller 10+1 and 20+2's that I play anyway..

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely think that I can improve on this, as these figures are based on my moving up from the $33s and I was looking for a very conservative figure.

Rick Diesel 04-29-2005 05:01 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
45 hrs a week is the perfect recipe for burnout. I'd try your figures again with 20-30 hrs/week.

edit: I'm in college and don't play for a living

[/ QUOTE ]

I just figured that since I currently average about 55-60 hours per week at my job, that 40-45 hours per week would be relatively easy.

That being said, this is precisely the feedback that I am looking for. Thank you for your opinion.

Mr_J 04-29-2005 05:01 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
This is the wrong forum for this topic.

"but I actually do slightly better at the 109s"

Highly doubt you will longterm.

"3 tables at a time
Average a little less than 1 hour per SNG"

Learn to play more than 3. A little less than 1hr/sng is slow.

"So I did some math, and found out that if I maintain my current ROI, playing 3 tables at a time, for 9 hours a day, 5 days a week, 45 weeks per year, playing an even mixture of $55 and $109s, I would make approximately $115,000 in a year."

I could make just as much with less hours and a slightly higher ROI at the $22s.

"s a 23.7% ROI sustainable while playing 3 tables at a time, 45 hours a week, for 45 weeks?"

23% not at the $109s. 45hrs a week is a alot. 45 weeks a year is alot too. The hours might be sustainable, the ROI won't be.

"but this is still a ridiculously small sample to work with"

1000 isn't that small. Jump back to the $22s or $33s and learn to 6-8 table. Then jump back up. $100k+ will still be attainable with significantly less ROI and hours.

SoftcoreRevolt 04-29-2005 05:05 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
I know a few people who have burned out trying to play 45 hours a week. It is tough. It is super tedious, sometimes frustrating, etc. If you want to play that much, just make sure you have ample distractions for much needed breaks. With SNGs this is actually probably more doable than grinding ring games, since you can start 3, and an hour later finish up and play some NBA Jam for a quick break, then get back to 3 more SnGs.

Rick Diesel 04-29-2005 05:07 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
What is the right forum then? 1-table tourneys? General?

I actually looked through the forums to decide which one to post to and went with this one.

Also, how do you 6-8 table? Do you have two monitors? If possible, is there a link that you can hook me up to that would show me how to hook up two monitors on one computer.

Mr_J 04-29-2005 05:08 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
"23.7% is very sustainable, you might even be able to improve it.. I dont know 1st hand, but from what I understand, very good players can be at 35-40% ROI.. In the smaller 10+1 and 20+2's that I play anyway.."

"and I was looking for a very conservative figure."

That's an unrealistic figure, not conservative. Conservative would be low teens at the $55s and 8-9% at the $109s for a decent player. Solid players will hit high teens low 20s for the $55s and mid-high teens at the $109s. This is 4+tabling.

crosse91 04-29-2005 05:10 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
how do you have 1000 posts and not know where to post [censored]?

Rick Diesel 04-29-2005 05:10 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
Right now, I probably average between 10-15 hours per week. I just figure that if I get rid of the 50-60 hour work week that I have at my real job, I could easily play poker for 30-35 hours of that time, and still have MUCH more free time than I had previously.

Obviously I would install breaks into my play time, as I would be home with my dogs all day, and would spend a lot of time playing with them.

Rick Diesel 04-29-2005 05:11 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
how do you have 1000 posts and not know where to post [censored]?

[/ QUOTE ]

good answer

lorinda 04-29-2005 05:12 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
Your figures for $109s are unrealistic.

See 1-table tournament forum for details.

Lori

Mr_J 04-29-2005 05:13 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
"What is the right forum then?"

Yep the 1table forum. That's the SNG forum.

"Also, how do you 6-8 table? Do you have two monitors?"

You could do it on one, it all depends on the specs of your monitor. Most people 8 table with 2 1600x1200 resolution monitors. Your video card is what decides whether you can use 2 monitors.

Right click on your desktop. Then click 'properties'. The click the 'settings' tab. Under where it says display, check what other options you have. I'm no techie but this should show you whether you can run 2 monitors or not.

Iplayragstoo 04-29-2005 05:59 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
You ned two video cards for that, its a super simple install.

NateDog 04-29-2005 06:12 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You ned two video cards for that

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You only need one, but it has to have dual or multi monitor support.

Uglyowl 04-29-2005 06:29 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
how do you have 1000 posts and not know where to post [censored]?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who the hell are you?

Freudian 04-29-2005 06:34 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
Your avatar scared me. It moved perfectly in sync with the music I was playing in winamp. I had to turn the music off to see it wasn't an infernal hacking trick.

Non_Comformist 04-29-2005 07:24 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
Hey Rick,

The accounting world losses anothter one huh?

I left a little over a year ago. I spotted two things in your post right away.

#1, Playing for than 25-30 hours a week is extremely difficult. I too came from a firm where I was putting in 55hrs a week. The thing you have to remember about online multitable poker is unlike other jobs, when you are playing you are fully engaged just about at all times. So while a person from a normal job may work 40hours, his/her time actually performing work is much less when you subtract the times people pause for a minute or two to think. 40hrs of poker would be an actual 40hours of playing poker.

Additionally I think the biggest benefit of playing poker for a living is not having to work a full 40hours. Trust me the game gets old quickly once you go beyond the part time mode.


Second, Your winrates right now are based on you playing when you want to, with little pressure, and for the most part at a few optimal hours. You will not have any of these luxuries when you go fulltime. I am not saying you can't maintain them, but it is something to think about.

Feel free to PM if want to discuss this futher.

Jeremy

Orpheus 04-29-2005 11:41 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
Okay... first off, don't mistake my direct declaratives for bossiness or "knowitall-ism", nor my illustrations as anything more than a pencil sketch. I'm a moron and I know it. I just know this post could turn into "War and Peace", and I'd like to keep it down to "Atlas Shrugged" length.

If you're going top do this professionally, I'd also allow for 10-20 hours a week of "professional development" [books, drills, session review]. You can count a fraction of this against your "breaks" but not much more than an hour a day: it's still "thinking poker". What's your upgrade path, so you don't stagnate?

There are other parasitic time losses, too, like time to prepare/center for each session [though perhaps this isn't as big a factor in SNGs. In my limited experiene, they start off slow. Unlike ring sessions, you don't have to hit the ground running because you can discard the first few hands with little penalty] Will you be online only, or will you also be playing live?

If you're doing this for a living, your schedule will run *you*, at least until you're quite successful and have a financial cushion. What will you do when you hit a nasty psychological or statistical downturn? It's harder to take an unplanned week or two off unless you've planned for it (You might want to sock away a vacation fund, put the kennel and a "last minute discount travel" agency on the speed dial, etc.) How many disaster tales involved a player continuing to playi when they suspected they shouldn't?

You've already run across some fiscal costs of proper equipment: you'll proably want 2 or more monitors, and a complete backup computer. Right now, you can afford to have the shop fiddle and diddle with your computer for a week or more, as they jack up your bill, or wait for a back-ordered part. Your Landlord may not be so accomodating.

None of the professional expenses may terribly large, but it could be a huge mistake to leave them out of your business plan. A few hundred dollars at Dell, Office Max and other non-poker sites (check the hot deals forums at Fatwallet and similar sites) could *easily* save you thousands later.

Also: Invest in yourself--and budget that investment (but don't kid yourself and splurge on luxuries)

I'm sure you get the idea. I can't play poker as well as you apparently can (and being a poker pro wouldn't be very personally satisfying to me), but I've started businesses and been a "professional" (i.e. jobs requiring grad school, postgrad training and/or licensure] in several fields.

It's pretty commonsense. As a rule of thumb, the professions I entered required as much time/resources for "professional activities" and infrastructure as actual work. Even tacking a couple of hours a day onto your playing time can boost your total weekly hours to 50+, and you'll be giving up the bennies, perks and, yes, "respectability" of a steady job. You may not care, your Significant Other may not care. But your bank officer might, and you'll be taking a hit to your resume, if you ever give it up and have to explain the year you spent attempting a "recreation industry startup".

I'm not trying to rain on your parade, just give you ideas. You sound bright enough to take it from there, if you keep your eyes open. Imagine you're a doctor or lawyer setting up a new practice (vs. buying an established one). Think journals and equipment and nonbillable hours. (Fortunately, the sites will provide you with "patients" to "operate on".) Always overestimate costs/burdens, with one thought: "Will I be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong" (vs. overestimating in ways that are destructive or paralyzing)

It's a business. Pick your accounting and other record software. Remember the IRS. Look into a health plana. These are not luxuries. They are things that you are giving up by making the switch.

Don't try to live by a business plan doodled on a single page. Get a fat looseleaf notebook and a package of separator tabs. Over the next several weeks, when something occurs to you, jot it down, file it and research it as a project--e.g. while upgrading your computer set-up isn't exactly rocket science, and you can find prepackaged answers here, creating the best solution *for you* could be a project all by itself. The same goes for your tax situation, insurance, etc.

And don't forget the psychological side: your support network, etc. Most of us don't worry about that for hobbies, but your hobby is about to go mission critical.

Benholio 04-29-2005 11:46 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
45 hrs a week is the perfect recipe for burnout. I'd try your figures again with 20-30 hrs/week.

edit: I'm in college and don't play for a living

[/ QUOTE ]

I just figured that since I currently average about 55-60 hours per week at my job, that 40-45 hours per week would be relatively easy.

That being said, this is precisely the feedback that I am looking for. Thank you for your opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want to second what others said, as I had the same outlook. I worked 45-50 hours/week at my last 'real job', and now If I get 120 hours for a month I feel like giving myself a trohpy. 25-30 hours/week is the most realistic total.

In your previous job, did you work balls to the wall for the entire 50 hours a week? How much of that time was spent working hard? In most jobs you only spend a couple hours a day worth of high-stress hard work, but if you are only counting hours that you sat at tables for poker, then it is ALL high-stress hard work.

Considering the hours spent reading the strategy forums, posting hands, etc, 25-30 hours of table-time a week is pretty equivalent to a full-time 40 hr/week job.

Kevin K. 04-30-2005 12:36 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
45 hrs a week is the perfect recipe for burnout. I'd try your figures again with 20-30 hrs/week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't take the time to figure out how many hours a week the OP has been playing. I think it takes a certain type of person to handle 45 hrs a week of multitabling online for many weeks in a row, however.

I can't imagine myself going through 45 hrs a week of online play for very long while I am sure I could play 60-70 hours a week of B&M for months on end before needing a break. Depends on the person, I guess. To me, online play is really draining.

*edit* I just read your post about playing 10-15 hours a week and I completely understand your train of thought with trading in more hours at work for less hours playing poker. You never know until you get there, I guess. Maybe put in 8-10 hrs playing on a few of your days off from work to get a feel?

Losing all 04-30-2005 02:09 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
I agree with others that you should have posted this in STT. Smaller group, less noise.

Also, you seem to have mastered the mid-level games on stars (although I'm not sure those roi's are sustainable) You still might find more profit, even with a lower roi on the quicker party sng's.

TStoneMBD 04-30-2005 03:13 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
rick, i play poker full time and am starting to burn out. i havent played any poker this week and am considering taking a 2 month break from it. however, since my monthly expenses are $2500 and i have no other form of income, a break from poker will be quite costly.

ive i averaged 40hrs/wk for this year ill make 100k also, but i just dont think its going to happen.

mcozzy1 04-30-2005 03:31 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd also allow for 10-20 hours a week of "professional development"

[/ QUOTE ]

20 hours of professional development? Are you serious? The guy can obviously play and should be spending the bulk of his poker time doing just that....playing. I can't imagine any professional player devoting 20 hours a week to "practicing".

JoeC 04-30-2005 04:04 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
I sort of disagree. I've heard of guys putting in 35-40 hours consistently. However, I've never done this, so I can't tell you this definitively

tech 04-30-2005 04:11 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
9 hours a day, 5 days a week

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck. Sounds like a "real" job. If I couldn't make a living in 1/2 to 2/3 of that time, I wouldn't do it.

Blarg 04-30-2005 04:46 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
Yeah, this one should be in the one table tourney forum, but I'm surprised at the number of quality responses I've seen so far.

I will echo from my short time spent reading the SNG forum that the overwhelming consensus there is that the ROI figures you have are unsustainable in the 109's, though some people seem to claim ROI's in the 55's that aren't much different from what I see claimed in the 11's. I'd take the latter with a grain of salt, though.

xLukex 04-30-2005 10:25 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
WHAT'S UP PITTSBURGH?

Timer 04-30-2005 10:45 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]


I could make just as much with less hours and a slightly higher ROI at the $22s.

I seriously doubt this.




1000 isn't that small. Jump back to the $22s or $33s and learn to 6-8 table. Then jump back up. $100k+ will still be attainable with significantly less ROI and hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

100K is a pipe dream. Do you have any idea how few people make this kind of money playing poker--especially online?

I don't make anywhere near that, and I've probably got more experience than 99% of the posters on this forum. Online poker is a different animal. I make a lot more money playing in a casino.

But if you can make 100K then I bow down to you, but in my opinion it's damn near impossible--to keep up anyway.

La Brujita 04-30-2005 10:50 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
I don't think 100k is a pipe dream, I think a good bunch can make it playing 20 or so hours a week.

Perhaps I should rephrase, when I say a good bunch I mean a decent number of players on these boards who are absolutely excellent players and play at high enough limits.

I think one thing to consider is the higher you play the easier it is to play without burning out (less hours).

That being said I think its unlikely it can be done at the 50 and 100 sit and go level. 200 no problem.

Rudbaeck 04-30-2005 11:20 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
100K is a pipe dream. Do you have any idea how few people make this kind of money playing poker--especially online?

I don't make anywhere near that, and I've probably got more experience than 99% of the posters on this forum. Online poker is a different animal. I make a lot more money playing in a casino.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good 3/6 multitabler makes $100/hour. Getting in 1000 hours a year can't be all that hard.

gila 04-30-2005 11:29 AM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
A good 3/6 multitabler makes $100/hour. Getting in 1000 hours a year can't be all that hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

??
Playing how many tables, 10?

Rudbaeck 04-30-2005 03:18 PM

Re: For those that play online for a living, how realistic is this?
 
[ QUOTE ]
A good 3/6 multitabler makes $100/hour. Getting in 1000 hours a year can't be all that hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

??
Playing how many tables, 10?

[/ QUOTE ]

8. 2.5BB/100 is $75, the rest is rakeback from 8 tables.


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