|
Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
I have been playing online poker for several years now. After starting out a loser I began to make money decent money for about three years. I studied the books from Two Plus Two esp. Hold Em for Advanced Players and Theory of Poker. I discovered Pokerstat and then more recently Pokertracker and used them to monitor and improve my play. My bankroll grew and I wound up playing 15/30 and 30/60 everyday on a well known poker site, making a six figure income.
However in January of this year the "party" stopped. I found that the games which I once dominated seemed almost unbeatable. Luckily I had been loading all my hand histories into Pokertracker so I was able to confirm that I was still playing about the same way I had while I was winning. It seemed that at the higher limits there were a few players who were able to play as if they knew what cards were coming. They would draw to the worst hands at times, but ONLY when they were going to hit. I began to watch carefully and record as many hand histories as I could. In the end the only logical conclusion I could come up with is that some players have discovered a way to predict or control the cards that will be dealt. Someone suggested that a player may have been able to see my cards by using some type of spyware program. Although this is entirely possible, I do not believe it to be the case in my situation. If they could ONLY see my cards why call against my aces, kings ect all the way, without any pot odds, to hit a running straight, running flush or two pair on the river, yet play a tight game the rest of the time. Just to be totally clear, I am not talking about the times when someone tries to make a bluff, but then proceeds to get lucky by catching cards. I fully understand the semi bluff and it implications in middle to high limit play. What I am talking about is people who play well 90% of the time, but at times make the worst calls only to hit thier hands perfectly. You would expect someone who draws to just a running straight or flush in a small pot to be chasing cards all the time. But these players ONLY do it when they hit. Also it seems that if they call the turn they will win the pot about 95% of the time. I am assuming the other 5% is just for show, or with hands that would just look too suspicious to support if they found out you folded. For example if you flopped the 2nd nut flush and folded to a player who had flopped the nut flush it would be too obivious that something was wrong. Anyway sorry for ranting a bit. All I want to know is has anyone else had a similar experence beginning in late 2004/early 2005? If so please post so I will know I am not the only one. I only saw one other post of this nature online and most of the responses were more akin to insults. I have been getting beaten lately and I admit that. If calling someone a loser somehow makes you feel better about yourself then go ahead, no one can stop you. However I would really appreciate it if only people with something of value to add would reply to this post. Thanks you all who participate!!! Ralphie. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
No they aren't, because computers need a programmed algorithm to make the hands 'random', ironically.
To answer your question in a more serious manner: ONLINE POKER IS RIGGED |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
What do you mean when you say "rigged"?
We all know that some forms of cheating are possible, such as collusion. But when you say its "rigged" are you implying that the sites themselves are cheating players? For larger sites it really would seem that they have too much to lose should it be discovered. However a small group of rouge employees who discover a way to cheat is not beyond reason. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
Ralphie, you are clearly a genius. I highly doubt that you will be completely satisfied with a response from anyone below your level of intelligence.
Therefore, I suggest that you do a search under "rigged". PM a few of those OP's and I'm certain that you will find the answers you are looking for. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
I am not really sure what you are trying to say in your post. Basically I am just telling people my experence and wondering if anyone else has seen the same thing, or has anything they would like to add. If you think I'm crazy you should be aware that it has happened before. There was a flaw in the shuffle initially used by planet poker which allowed a player to know the exact position of all cards once they saw the flop. There was another problem at one site where the hand history server was hacked and this was used to determine players hole cards in real time.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
It was irony. Basically what you're saying is that some players at some poker sites knows or has figured out what cards are going to fall.
My response to you is: no, this is not possible. It's random, and the poker sites have nothing to gain by rewarding some players. My brother calculated that partypoker makes roughly $7-8 million a day in rakes and transaction fees (might not be accurate, but it gives you an idea of why they don't need to be rigged). They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by doing this. This will probably be the only half-serious anwser you will get to this question. These kind of posts come by every other week. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
I don't know if online shuffles are truly random by the mathmatical definition, but I do know that online shuffles are more random than B&M shuffles.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
You must be playing those PokerBots that all the sites use.
If you ever play video games like Madden NFL, most of the time the CPU seems to know exactly what play you picked. This just must be one of those instances where the site has used a pokerbot that knows all the cards that will come and when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. I seriously doubt this is the same player over and over again doing the same thing. That might be cause for alarm, but if it's just some random opponents doing it to you then it's just some random events combining in a way to really piss you off. But in all honesty let's try some actual reasons for this... You've been winning for a long time, perhaps it's just time for you to lose a bit as well. You can't and won't win 'em all. I don't see many posts of people complaining about hitting their last 15 flush draws in a row, or hitting a set with their last 10 pocket pairs. When's the last time someone came to this board to say Online Poker is rigged because they haven't lost a pot at showdown in two weeks? You can't win 'em all, get over it and keep playing your winning ways. There's this little thing called variance that can work for/against you. Or, The games got tougher to beat because the other players got better or you are playing against some tougher opponents. Are you playing in the exact same game day in and day out and suddenly started losing? People can become better poker players and new players that enter your games can be good players too. Maybe you need to fine tune your table selection a little bit. So you made a six figure income last year but get off to a slow start this year and have to complain about it? That's why you have to keep a good chunk of change in reserve if you plan to do this for a living. I remember a number like 6mos worth of living expenses in savings to account for any long downswings such as you are experiencing. Oh and in case you haven't heard, Poker is gambling, so there is always a chance you will lose. And since every hand is random and independent of each other, a suck out on the previous hand does not affect the chances of a suck out on the next hand... |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if online shuffles are truly random by the mathmatical definition, but I do know that online shuffles are more random than B&M shuffles. [/ QUOTE ] Right on. It is impossible for computers to generate truly "random" numbers. They do the best they can with pseudorandom generators, adding as much entropy into the seeding as possible. Take a look at Paradise's shuffling info page for a good read. Given their algorithm (as audited by PWC), the decks would be far more random than any hand shuffle. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
"My bankroll grew and I wound up playing 15/30 and 30/60 everyday on a well known poker site, making a six figure income."
In my experience, when someone tries to illustrate a point by starting out they make 6 figures online poker without giving their alias or the pokersite, they are full of BS. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
Old news.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
People whine about every single server. They complain about the dice on every backgammon server and the cards on every poker server.
I don't claim that all servers are fair. I don't know that. However, it is ridiculous to claim at every single server is unfair. It's just not that hard to make a random number generator that is good enough. That means that on some servers, the cards are fair, and people whine anyway. Anecdotal evidence of unfair cards is not credible. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
It's just not that hard to make a random number generator that is good enough. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it is quite difficult to implement a proper pseudorandom sequence that both covers the entire space of shuffled decks and is not susceptible to various exploits. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
"Actually, it is quite difficult to implement a proper pseudorandom sequence that both covers the entire space of shuffled decks and is not susceptible to various exploits."
Yes this is what my research has led me to believe. Please don't get me wrong people, I'm not saying that every online poker site is fixed or that the cards are predictable. However it is a known fact that at certain times in the past people were able to predict the cards to be dealt, as well as players hole cards, either due to poor shuffles or from hacking things like hand history servers. Therefore I think it is somewhat naive to just assume the shuffles cannot be predicted/reproduced by smart groups of people, at least some of the time, at some of the sites. I have been playing poker both live and online for some time and have had a solid winning record in the past few years. When I suddenly cannot win, and seem to be getting bad beats from players who seem to play as if they know what cards are coming, I wonder if something could be wrong. Anyway in an attempt to get this thread back on track let me say the following: Starting late last year/early this year I suddenly found my self unable to win at the biggest online site, at the top two limits. I am just wondering if other people with winning track records have had a similar experence at a similar time. If so please post about it here, so we could compair notes and try to determine if something is really wrong. Maybe someone out there who knows something we don't will see this posts and reply. Ralphie |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
My bankroll grew and I wound up playing 15/30 and 30/60 everyday on a well known poker site, making a six figure income. [/ QUOTE ] Being completely serious, if you are that wary of online poker and its possible pitfalls well, take your bankroll and your skills to the B&M game where all if not most of your worries will be a thing of the past. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
Notice the lack of many long standing posters. This is due to the fact that they dont believe online poker is rigged and wont bother commenting on an issue that is heard 100 times a day. If you really think its rigged then get the hell out now before you lose all your money.
Obviously the rest of the 2+2 posters have either decided that the sites are not rigged or else they have figured out how to beat any rigged site. If the latter is the case then the "rigging" sucks. Stop whinning about downswings and unfounded conspiracies against the poker sites. If you saw every hand that was played in a day on the entire site and then saw a trend i might believe you. Since your sample is limited to your own experience it really has no weight at all. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's just not that hard to make a random number generator that is good enough. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it is quite difficult to implement a proper pseudorandom sequence that both covers the entire space of shuffled decks and is not susceptible to various exploits. [/ QUOTE ] That doesn't contradict what I said. You don't need to make your RNG capable of generating all possible shuffles and immune to "various exploits" for it to be good enough. No one should be able to tell by eye whether your rivers are dealt by computer or by hand. Even if you make mistakes that would allow hackers to predict the cards, or only allow 2^100 deals rather than 2^225, casual players shouldn't notice. However, you'll hear people claim on every site that the cards are totally unbelievable. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
Let me try again to keep this tread on track.
1. I am not, and have never, claimed the sites are "rigged". 2. We do know that in the past people have figured out ways to predict the hole cards or cards yet to be dealt. 3. Given the amount of money at stake it is reasonable to to condiser the possibiliy that this will happen again. I had very poor results in January and Feburary of this year. The players I lost to seemed as if they knew what cards were going to be dealt. I would like to hear from anyone else who had a similar experence at or about the same time. Thanks to anyone who wants to contribute. Ralph. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
How many hands have you played in these last several years? Several years doesn't mean anything if you've only played 20,000 hands in that time. Over how many hands have you been a winning player?
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
just play NL, and you can find out for sure if anyone is rigging the site. Maybe they only rig the limit games. If you still have poor results just stop playing for a couple months. Hard to do, but will do alot of good in the long run.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
I have no idea to what degree online poker is rigged...
But... The arguement that poker sites would not cheat... Because "too much is at stake"... Or "make too much money to risk scandal"... Is hopelessly naive. Just look at 2 MAXIMUM REGULATED worlds. The securities business... Gave us Enron... The recent mutual fund skimming scandal... Endless insider trading. I'm a US broker-dealer. I make 100 trades on the NYSE every day... And I get cheated 5-10 times every day... By the specialists... And there's not a damn thing that I can do. It's the cost of doing business. Greed knows no bounds. Or Vegas... Do you really believe that bringing in a mechanic... To bust an unwelcome player... Is a total myth? Here is a hypothesis: As competition... For online poker market share heats up... The best way to maximize rake... Is to protect the average player from the sharks. If you give a top player... Just ONE bad beat every 100 hands... His profit margin disappers... And he goes away... So the happy fish can keep playing... Without being quickly tapped out... By the rake and the pros. This would be super simple to program. I guarentee you that the software hooks... Or bots... Or whatever... Is in place... And eventually... The pros will be systematically "discouraged"... From abusing the fish. That's how you maximize the rake. Protect the fish. Offshore = Unregulated = Anything Goes This kind of thing would be going on... Even if the SEC and the NASD... Were regulating the poker sites. Tell me that I'm wrong... But in a fierce battle for market share... But don't give me the ridiculous arguement... That poker sites... "Are making too much money to cheat". rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
1. I am not, and have never, claimed the sites are "rigged". [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I had very poor results in January and Feburary of this year. The players I lost to seemed as if they knew what cards were going to be dealt. [/ QUOTE ] If this isn't suggesting it's rigged, I don't know what is. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
I'm not sure what type of program they are using to randomize the cards but I suppose it does the job. It does seem peculiar those times that I get dealt a 83 off suit 7 times in a row....so I'm not sure....
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what type of program they are using to randomize the cards but I suppose it does the job. It does seem peculiar those times that I get dealt a 83 off suit 7 times in a row....so I'm not sure.... [/ QUOTE ] How about those times you are multitabling and you get the exact same hand at two of them at the same time? It's never an awesome hand like AA or KK it's always some crappy 73o BS. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm not sure what type of program they are using to randomize the cards but I suppose it does the job. It does seem peculiar those times that I get dealt a 83 off suit 7 times in a row....so I'm not sure.... [/ QUOTE ] How about those times you are multitabling and you get the exact same hand at two of them at the same time? It's never an awesome hand like AA or KK it's always some crappy 73o BS. [/ QUOTE ] When I two table, if I take my hole cards on one and use them on the other I always have an awsome hand. Its like I can predict the future [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Greg |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
How about those times you are multitabling and you get the exact same hand at two of them at the same time? It's never an awesome hand like AA or KK it's always some crappy 73o BS. [/ QUOTE ] Actually yesteday I hit a $50 down swing at 1/2 and was getting very frustrated. At two tables I simultaneously got dealt AA at one table, had my 63o flop a straight at my second table, and then got dealt AA right after that straight. It must be rigged! Ultimatebet loves me! |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
Ralpie...
I have heard of what you have suggested before. However, I have been told that the card(s) that hit on the next street are different depending on which players are in the hand. In other words, say for example you fold a gutshot on the turn and the river is your money card, had you stayed in this would have been a different card. This would make sence to keep people from being able to tell what would fall next. Of course I do not know if this is the true way of where the next card comes from. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
You probably just suck at poker.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1. I am not, and have never, claimed the sites are "rigged". [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I had very poor results in January and Feburary of this year. The players I lost to seemed as if they knew what cards were going to be dealt. [/ QUOTE ] If this isn't suggesting it's rigged, I don't know what is. [/ QUOTE ] He is not saying the sites are rigged, he is asking if about some players knowing the cards that are coming. Many sites do not use a fixed deck, the cards are generated as needed, so this would be impossible on those sites (UB does this from what I understand from their RNG page). |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
Is this shuffle really random online? [/ QUOTE ] Do you see what most dealers do in live games? A few riffles and a cut. Is that "random"? But if they shuffled more - lower rake AND more complaining about how sloooooooooooooooooow live play is. Barron Vangor Toth www.BarronVangorToth.com |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
Do you believe the shuffle is really random online??? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Do you believe the shuffle is really random online??? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. [/ QUOTE ] Start by defining random. Then give me examples of ANYTHING that is random. Should you define random as something beyond your power to predict, then the Poker sites hold up to that test. Beyond the power of ANYONE to predict, they do there best to guarantee that. You will have to mine your data for patterns and give statistical evidence to non-random patterns. Do that and we will take you a little more seriously. Computers are machines it is rather hard to get "random" output from them. Hence the terms "psuedo-random" and the like. I however believe in the fairness of the deal. Otherwise I would not play. If you do not believe you should only be playing with the goal to gather enough data to get proof. Pokertracker has the data, run some real analysis and show us the proof. -- tjh |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
** You guys are all missing the point **
Ralphie thinks that he may be being cheated. If true... It would have ** absolutely nothing ** to do... With Party's RNG... which I'm sure is just fine. If he's being cheated... It's because the RNG is turned OFF for one hand... And a pre-progammed sequence of cards is dealt... Designed to give a bad beat to a target player. Ralphie will be dealt QQ... flop QKK. Wow... An near absolute nut full house on the flop. Raise and re-raise. But... A calling station will be dealt AK... And an Ace will be the 7th card. It only makes sense to target winning players... With one bad beat per 100 hands. Highly regulated casinos have a long history... Of cheating unwelcome players. Once growth peaks... (And booms end and suddenly as they start)... And the real battle for market share begins... Offshore and unregulated. Pros that tap out the average players... Will become UNWELCOME... And will be run off. But Roy Cooke will be in every magazine... Swearing on his mother's grave... That guys like him... Keep online poker squeaky clean. Yesterday I got AA in the hole... Twice in 3 hands. Am I happy? Not really... it's too unnatural. rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
Well over 200,000 hands, possibly approaching 300,000.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
If you read the posts above that one you will probably see what I meant when I said I was not claiming the sites were rigged. What I meant to say (perhaps it was unclear) is that I do not beleive that the sites themselves are cheating people, but rathter that outsiders may have figured out ways to predict the hole cards or cards to be dealt.
|
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
If you read the posts above that one you will probably see what I meant when I said I was not claiming the sites were rigged. What I meant to say (perhaps it was unclear) is that I do not beleive that the sites themselves are cheating people, but rathter that outsiders may have figured out ways to predict the hole cards or cards to be dealt. [/ QUOTE ] From the Party Poker security page: [ QUOTE ] We use 128-bit encryption, through Thawte Security, to ensure the highest level of security and privacy of your data, and all your information is kept confidential and is not shared or sold to third parties. [/ QUOTE ] Now, I'm not an encryption know-it-all, but I have read that it would take the fastest computer in the world several million years to crack 128-bit encryption, if not longer. |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you read the posts above that one you will probably see what I meant when I said I was not claiming the sites were rigged. What I meant to say (perhaps it was unclear) is that I do not beleive that the sites themselves are cheating people, but rathter that outsiders may have figured out ways to predict the hole cards or cards to be dealt. [/ QUOTE ] Now, I'm not an encryption know-it-all, but I have read that it would take the fastest computer in the world several million years to crack 128-bit encryption, if not longer. [/ QUOTE ] Splashpot is right. Cracking the standard encryption used today... Would take too much computer power to be feasible. Remember... You have only seconds to act. "Outsiders predicting cards"... Happened once in one well publicized instance... But that was years ago. That's why it's impossible today. The only cheating with cards... Can come from the poker site side... Where they shut down the Random Numer Generator for one hand... And deal a pre-programmed hand... Just the way Vegas casinos would bring in a mechanic. There would be no evidence... Because Party has 100% of the evidence... And no one would talk... Since only those actually involved would know. And even if there were caught red-handed... 1,000,000 poker site apologists would step forward... And screeeeeeeeam, "Just another loser complaining". If you guys only knew... How much cheating goes on at the New York Stock Exchange. Since I've been coming to 2+2... I've been ** shocked ** at the BLIND FAITH... Regular players have in unregulated poker sites. I must be a powerful form of denial... And beyond rational control. Hell... Ed Miller recommends avoiding Party... In This 2+2 Post Is Miller joking? Clueless? rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
[ QUOTE ]
If you read the posts above that one you will probably see what I meant when I said I was not claiming the sites were rigged. What I meant to say (perhaps it was unclear) is that I do not beleive that the sites themselves are cheating people, but rathter that outsiders may have figured out ways to predict the hole cards or cards to be dealt. [/ QUOTE ] The sites are NOT rigged. People do NOT know what cards are coming next. As an earlier poster mentioned, what you are experiencing is VARIANCE. People are going to chase their draws and often times they are going to get there. Learn to deal with it and realize that these players make the game profitable. Amid aka Groo aka Denim |
Re: Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???
If you're trying to be hilarious, you're succeeding. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
If you're serious, you're silly. |
| All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:29 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.