AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

<font color="green">SB is running about 53/12 w/ AF's of 1.3/1.7/1.5 (F/T/R).</font>

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

<font color="purple">Is this standard?</font>

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

Hmmm interesting river. At first I wrote yeah it's an autoraise. But theres no hand opponent could really have except KQ where that card helps you and not him. I probably just call if I thought about it. In the heat of the moment I probably say TWO PAIR! RAIIIISE!

-Mike

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I like just calling down after the flop here with the king on board (betting if checked to). Anyone agree or disagree?

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I like just calling down after the flop here with the king on board (betting if checked to). Anyone agree or disagree?

Agree.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

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I like just calling down after the flop here with the king on board (betting if checked to). Anyone agree or disagree?

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I think this is a little on the weak tight side this is a blind stealing/blind defense situation with a loose somewhat aggressive villan. I think not raising the river is criminal as a K will definitely pay you off, I don't like the river 3 bet but dem are the breaks. FWIW I play the hand the exact same way.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

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I think not raising the river is criminal as a K will definitely pay you off, I don't like the river 3 bet but dem are the breaks. FWIW I play the hand the exact same way.

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Same

Krishan

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
think this is a little on the weak tight side this is a blind stealing/blind defense situation with a loose somewhat aggressive villan

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The thing is that this is a scary board for the villain as well and you may make him keep bluffing at you if you just call down whereas if you raise, better hands are all going to 3-bet you and worse hands that he was LAGging it up with might fold where they would have bet into you as a bluff.

I meant call down without improvement, I'd raise the river after calling the flop and turn when rivering two pair.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

You need to raise at some point, you have a strong hand with 2nd pair top kicker in a headsup blind battle. I would either raise the flop or call the flop raise the turn here. I think you are underestimating the range of hands that a lag is holding here and will pay you off if you're ahead, which is a large majority of the time.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

Yeah when I first replied I didn't notice he opened from SB. I favour a turn raise here, I hate getting 3-bet so much though.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

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I favour a turn raise here, I hate getting 3-bet so much though.

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I really don't like a turn raise here. I'd much rather cap the flop and play from there.

Krishan

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

TMFS9:

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I think this is a little on the weak tight side this is a blind stealing/blind defense situation with a loose somewhat aggressive villan

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You are probably right....but the villain did cap this preflop, out of position, and he isn't that aggressive. So I would be more likely to give him credit for a real hand here and probably played this with the call call call line(would raise the river hitting my 2-pair--which is probably inconsistent)

If there was some history or if he was particularly aggressive HU or in steal situations, then that is another thing...

--Rico

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

Am I the only one that thinks this river raise is bad. The only hand a reasonable player could have is KQ or maybe KJ that you beat and that will pay it off, and you have to be ahead &gt;2/3 of the time when called for it to be profitable as all hands that beat you will likely threebet. You are probibly ahead at most 50% of the time given the way the action has gone to this point.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I've seen some pretty marginal hands capped preflop in these blind stealing situations from less than maniacal opponents. If you were villan would you cap call down TT,99,AJs, all hands for a reasonable opponent to cap preflop with much less a person with 50 something vpip. Now after the flop 3 bet I would start giving him credit for a decent hand.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I agree too, that being said, I'd still raise that river.

Agree or disagree?

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

Most players, don't make the proper adjustments to "blind battles" when he caps preflop, I think he more likely than not has something serious.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I agree that most people don't adjust well to blind v. blind hands, but I don't think it's on the passive side. There are plenty of people that get fucktardedly aggressive with J4s kinda hands.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I just don't see that as the norm. I see people open completing in sb, or open limping on the button b/c they don't even know about stealing. But sure, there are fucktards..

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I play it the same.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

This hand happened during a sweat hour with JoeTall.

Joe said that this should have been just called... I debated w/ him a little and raised anyway. He referred to it as a "win 1, lose 2" situation. One of the biggest streets I seem to have issues with is the river. I either don't value bet it, or I value bet in the wrong situations. Sometimes, I do get it right. It's about learning.

Ok... Let's look at the villain here. He's LA-A. With his aggression, he could have anything. Capping pf.. I dunno... he could be doing this with garbage in order to steal later in the hand. I know I've done it w/ hands like KTo.

I'm behind to a lot of hands here.... AA (1 combination), KK (3 combinations), AK (6 combinations), QQ (1 combination), JT (16 combinations), 88 (3 combinations), 99 (3 combinations)... (any 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s).

I would eliminate hands like KK, QQ, and 88. I figure hands like this would more likely be played by the villain harder on the turn than the flop.

I would eliminate any 2 clubs edit due to the flop action.

So, I'm roughly behind to about 26 hands. What can he be playing that I beat?

KQ (6 combinations), JJ (6 combinations), A8s (3 combinations), KTs (2 combinations), KTo (eh... maybe... 9 combinations), KJs (2 combinations), KJo (9 combinations), TT (6 combinations)

Add in that he's not too bright... maybe more... maybe less.

So, maybe 43-50 combinations.

I raised based on the idea that this was a battle of the blinds and he would call a raise with any piece of the board, or a PP. And based on his stats, I felt he overplayed a lot of hands and I was ahead more than 50% of the time here.

The 3-bet on the flop is scary. But wouldn't he do that with many of the hands above that I beat on the river?

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

On this one, given the flop action, I just call the river. His flop 3-bet is pretty effin' strong.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I think the problem is that you cant eliminate QQ or KK, and once he theebets the flop the conditional probibility that he has JJ is much lower then AK so you have to weight some of those hands in the second group accordingly and I would guess that it puts you ahead of only roughly half the hands your behind. I think that with a 10pfr this is unlikely to be +ev I would need a very strong lag read to make this river raise. You cant eliminate clubs either any more then you can eliminate TT.
As well I think the key to this is he will usually raise any hand you beat, and may fold some of the hands you are ahead of like TT. Even if you give a small P value to him folding those hands it makes this raise very -EV. You basically have to assume he will always overplay his hand to give yourself a 70% chance to be ahead which only makes this play 0 EV. Actually even with your assumptions it would be slightly -EV and you have to discount JJ relative to AK so I actually dont think that it is close here.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

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As well I think the key to this is he will usually raise any hand you beat, and may fold some of the hands you are ahead of like TT. Even if you give a small P value to him folding those hands it makes this raise very -EV. You basically have to assume he will always overplay his hand to give yourself a 70% chance to be ahead which only makes this play 0 EV. Actually even with your assumptions it would be slightly -EV and you have to discount JJ relative to AK so I actually dont think that it is close here.

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Excellent.