Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

In this hand I think most people see the flop but maybe I'm wrong--we'll see. It gets a little dicey after that. Same as before. What would you do and why?

No reads on anyone here so assume an average Party table.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero ??

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

I think this call is better than your last one. As long as I'm in the business of feeling dirty but making more money, I think this is a call.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

getting ~6:1, I think it's close.

I think I would want more limper to play that hand OOP. I think a lot of people will tell you it's a call, however.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

This is a really easy call if BB is loose, and a relatively easy call otherwise. 6:1 is plenty for me to call here.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

5-1 to call is cutting it close, but I think you can call this here. I suppose the flop tells all...

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
5-1 to call is cutting it close, but I think you can call this here. I suppose the flop tells all...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not 5:1. It's 9.5:1.5 if BB doesn't call and 10.5:1.5 if he does (the other donks aren't folding here often enough for it to be much of a consideration, though a slight discount for the 1-3% of LRR's you see is worthwhile).

Rob

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

I fold here but I've been told my VP$IP is too low.

The reason I fold is because I really don't want to play 10-8 soooted out of position especially when it's been raised pre-flop.

If there's no raise, I will always complete from the SB with at least one limper. If it's folded to me in the SB, I fold and unckeck the "Auto-Post Blinds" button and leave after the next orbit.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

Obviously I called preflop or this would be pretty boring. Here's the flop.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero ??

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

Calls.

13:1 on a gutshot + BDFD = good enough.

Edited for typo.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

If I accidentally called pre-flop I'd have to call here too getting 13-1.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

Easy call; I give you ~5 outs between discounting the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and noting the BD flush draw.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

Okay I'll be honest and admit I would have folded this preflop. I would not pay 1 SB to play T8s UTG, so I'm not real eager to pay 1.5 SBs to play that same hand from even worse position.

Given that I'm still in the hand, this looks like an easy call on the flop, even with the two flush out there.

Knowing how marginal hands #1 and #2 have gone, I'm predicting that the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls on the turn and the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits on the river, with both streets capped.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I called preflop or this would be pretty boring. Here's the flop.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]
Easy call pre-flop for me. The flop is tough, though. We have a GSD, but not worth a full 4 outs. The 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would be scary, and AK is a possibility for CO. We have a BDF worth about 1.5 outs usually, but again that should be discounted because we're not drawing to the nut flush.

I think maybe 3 outs is generous, giving us 15:1 to improve by the turn. A call here is very borderline with 13:1 currently, but possibly a couple calls following. I fold because I can't be too aggressive if my draw hits since I'm not confident I'm best. (So implied odds here are negligible IMO.)

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I accidentally called pre-flop I'd have to call here too getting 13-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you the same guy that accidently called with the T8s in that other thread? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

[ QUOTE ]

Knowing how marginal hands #1 and #2 have gone, I'm predicting that the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls on the turn and the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits on the river, with both streets capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not this time Carnac. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

I haven't made one misclick since I bought monitors with 1600x1200 resolution. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I remember making some doozies when I was 4-tabling with 800x600 resolution though.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

I thought the flop was an easy call but I don't always think things through as far as I should. You'll probably see that here on the turn.
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero ??

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would not pay 1 SB to play T8s UTG, so I'm not real eager to pay 1.5 SBs to play that same hand from even worse position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your implied odds have gone up, and your relative position rocks, for an investment of only .5 more SB. It's worth it.

Rob

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought the flop was an easy call but I don't always think things through as far as I should. You'll probably see that here on the turn.
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold, given that you've got around a 4 outer now, and none of your "outs," save maybe a ten, make me particularly happy.

Rob

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would not pay 1 SB to play T8s UTG, so I'm not real eager to pay 1.5 SBs to play that same hand from even worse position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your implied odds have gone up, and your relative position rocks, for an investment of only .5 more SB. It's worth it.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I'm trying to loosen up against pfrs out of the blinds. I'm getting there . . . [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I know this is somewhat read-dependent, but how many limpers would make this a borderline decision?

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

Fold. That 10 didn't really help me. (Actually it weakened my hand as my straight outs are all now much weaker than before).

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

With that card, it's hard to feel good about hitting your draw at all. If the pot was giant, I might stick around, but this looks like a fold.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

I also would have folded preflop (I'd need at least 1 more caller to loosen up my sb enough to call that in an online game; in a real-life game I'd be more likely to call it if I could get a good read on my fellow players). If I called pf (for instance, in a live game), I would have called the flop bet, but I definitely would fold on the turn. That card dirties your outs way too much for my taste. With other players still potentially drawing to higher straights, to flushes and with the Q out there, I wouldn't pay to see another card.

-jake.
"Just my thoughts. Just what I was feeling at the time."

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

[ QUOTE ]
With that card, it's hard to feel good about hitting your draw at all. If the pot was giant, I might stick around, but this looks like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I figured that probably no one here would call this turn. When even I have to think twice about it it's probably a bad call.

Here's what I was thinking. If CO has AK I'm dead but he could have AQ or AJ or many other hands just as well. MP3 probably has a Qx or Jx or a flush draw so I'm not that worried about him unless the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits.

I've got 3 different cards that potentially give me a winner. Those being a T, 9, or 8. I realize they're all dirty but added together with a probable 11 or 12BB pot it seemed like a worthwhile bet to me.

I'll admit I don't take the time to analyze down to the .5 outs level but I'm playing a lot of hands on 4 tables so I'm not sure I could do that even if I wanted to.

I have no problem in everyone disagreeing with this call though.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

(Challenge Post - So take advice with grain of salt)

Well, typical PP table, so UTG+1 and MP3 will call (90% of the time). CO has position, so his raise may be with a questionable hand. Regardless. 5 people seeing the flop, hero seeing it for a slight discount. I'm calling, might as well take a look.

Then if the flop misses, I'm out.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

unraised, its an easy complete. raised, with 1 caller and 2 limpers likely to call, yeah, I put in my discounted call.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (flop)
 

I give you 5 outs-the 4 nines to a gutshot and maybe 1 out for the bd3nfd. Your hand is vulnerable to redraws, though, a a K or T puts you on the wrong end of a straight, and a club may give someone else a flush. You are getting 13-1 to call, probably better, since 2-3 of the limpers probably call.....so....call.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (turn)
 

yuck-this is whan I would be kicking myself for calling pf (even though it was the right play). At this point, you are likely down to like 2 outs. (the 2 tens might be worth 1/2 out-if co has AA or KK you can thank the river gods if a Ten comes) The 3 non club nines now might be worth 1.5. This is where I would spew chips, cuz I would probably stay in this big pot for 1 bet.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (river)
 

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero ??

So I lucked out and helped my hand. What do I do here?

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (river)
 

hero raises, MP3 folds, CO calls and shows AQ

edit: not really that serious, I'd just call and hope CO doesnt have AK or a 9

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (river)
 

since we didn't fold the turn

I'm just calling the river, hoping MP3 comes along .. its the safer approach, raising here will get you 3bet by hands that beat you, and often won't get paidoff by hands you beat .. plus it drive mp3out

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (result)
 

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. </font>

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (result)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. </font>

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure where you're getting the 8 outs from. He had a King, so hitting a nine on the river would have only cost you money. You had at most two outs to the ten and three outs to the 8. However, there's a chance that MP3 was on a flush draw and so two of those outs would have been dead also, and would have cost you more money on the river. Anyways, on the turn you had between 3 and 5 outs, let's say 4 on average, so you weren't quite justified calling the turn bet unless you knew that MP3 was going to call as well (note that he could have check raised here).

The implied odds aren't too significant on the turn because none of your outs give you much confidence, so regardless of whether you hit a 9, 10 or an 8 you can't really raise the river to get a lot of value for making your hand. Expecting to earn one extra BB from an opponent on the river is reasonable, but it has to be counterbalanced with the times you will make a second best hand on the river and still call an additional bet. So you might be overestimating the implied odds on the turn when drawing to a marginal hand.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (result)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where you're getting the 8 outs from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I KNEW I worded that poorly and someone would misunderstand. What I meant was my outs if an 8 hit were actually good (although there was no way to know that in advance).

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (result)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

What implied odds? When you "hit" your hand, all you got was a measley 1 BB out of Villian. That sucks.

If anything, what you've illustrated is a "reverse implied odds" situation. You hit your hand on the river, but you still weren't in a position to bet it aggressively and collect extra bets from your opponent. That's the opposite of what people mean when they add in implied odds to justify an earlier call.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

I'd fold this one. CO could be trying to steal the blinds but you really don't know, and you haven't gt a very good hand.

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (result)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. </font>

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your call was profitable by the thinnest of margins -- you had a 5 outer getting 8.5:1 with the possibility of it being raised behind you. You got a bit lucky this time.

In the future, I'd say your weighted outs put this closer to a 3 outer, given that you'll frequently be drawing dead, occasionally be drawing to 9ish outs, and often be drawing to 4 outs. Even if we were to bump the estimates up and give you 4 outs on the whole, the fact that you aren't closing the action on this turn with bottom pair and a gutshot makes it a good time to fold.

I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.

Rob

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

This is a very easy pre-flop fold. If you are in the Big Blind u can call

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very easy pre-flop fold. If you are in the Big Blind u can call

[/ QUOTE ]

This is far from an easy fold at these limits, against these opponents, especially in a 1/2 structure. Getting somewhere between 6-7:1 on the preflop call with good relative position and some donks in between, it's ok.

Rob

Re: Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? (result)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, like I said at the beginning I realize this was probably a bad call on the turn. I made a snap judgement and decided to call. Like I said earlier, I play a lot of hands on 4 tables so I'm usually not going to figure out exact clean and dirty outs. If you're off by 1 out (which is a guesstimate anyways because you don't KNOW what the other player has) then I don't think that would be a "serious" leak--at least not at this level.