50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Semigood 10-handed 50/100 online. No read on player A in CO-2, Hero is CO-1, player B in CO is very passive.

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [Ah As]
donk1: folds
donk2: folds
donk3: folds
Player A: raises $100
Hero: raises $150
Player B: calls $150
donk4: folds
donk5: folds
donk6: folds
Player A: calls $50

----- FLOP ----- [4s 7d 9d]

Player A: checks
Hero: bets $50
Player B: calls $50
Player A: raises $100
Hero: raises $100
Player B: calls $100
Player A: calls $50

----- TURN ----- [4s 7d 9d][Js]

Player A: checks
Hero: bets $100
Player B: calls $100
Player A: raises $200
Hero: calls $100
Player B: calls $100

----- RIVER ----- [4s 7d 9d Js][Qd]

Player A: bets $100
Hero: folds

Comments?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

You don't think you have 17:1 odds to call?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I pay this off...you do have TWO ACES !!!!

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

If you're calling the turn, I don't see why you're folding the river in this huge pot. What has changed between the two streets? If you're going to fold anywhere, it's the turn...the guy has checkraised you twice so he has a set most likely. But I think he has a big pair or getting out of line with AK enough to make it profitable to call. Did you fold the end b/c you now lose to pocket jacks and queens and only beat kings? I still call...outside chance he has the other aces also.

Jeff

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Well one thing has changed.. the diamond flush got there, even if it's unlikely he has that particular hand.

I'd pay it off .. the pot is large.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Whoops...missed that, but I doubt he checkraises the flop and turn with the draw unless he has something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. But I do stand by the idea that if you are calling the turn, you should call the river. If this is the kind of opponent that will never pull a double checkraise with just an overpair or AK, you must be beat. Absent this info however, I'm paying it off everytime.

Jeff

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Don't forget there's still another player to act behind who has been taking a ton of heat also.

I would say hero is probably beat in at least one spot, but it's hard to recommend folding a good hand in a big pot to an unknown opponent for one bet on the river.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

How far off am I here? I guess you figure he can't have KK because he didn't cap pre-flop or the flop. Isn't playing KK pre-flop like that sometimes good for all those times an A won't drop and you'll auto-lead?

Wouldn't you sometimes play AK the same way to fold out the CO and hope to check through the river?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

It must be the fact you have no read you opt to call down after the turn cr, but since thats viceversa and i think you can safely assume the chance of having run into a total idiot on the 50/100 isn't that big, you're just drawing to a 1-outer. On the flop you scream "overpair", On the turn he screams "im exploiting that fact" and you can basically sum up you're drawing a 1-outer. I say call, because you don't know the guy, but still 90% of the players youll run into you got a pretty clear fold on the turn. If you call the turn, you gotta call the river

Howwweverr, i don't play anywhere near that limit so this kind of reasoning could make me just the fish the players have for breakfast [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

ps. I rule out QQ and KK because of preflop developments. Jacks...meh...maybe

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Folding the turn would be ok, folding the river is at best, horrible. Your odds are WAAAYY to good to fold after the river, it's the wrong time to lay the hand down.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Thanks for all responses.

Why are everyone so consumed with the whole "if you call turn you HAVE TO call river" idea?

If we were to put player A on a range of hands, 77, 99, T8s, JJ are distinct possibilities. But so are AJd, KJd, QJd, JTd, KTd QTd, maybe even ATd or A8d if he's frisky. In addition to the top pair + draw hands he could very well have a 2-pair variation such as J9s or 97s in which case I'm correct to peel one of with my redraw.

It's conceivable he has QQ/KK/AA, but I find that remote based on PF action, but you never know. QQ got there on river and even if he held the kings or aces, I still have 1 yahoo behind me left to act who has taken alot of heat.

ggbman: I strongly disagree with your notion that folding river is "at best horrible". I think it's good poker.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I agree there are a lot of hands you can call on hte turn and muck on the river, but this isn't one of them. If you're calling on the turn you better be calling on the river. If you muck on the turn, fine. I still like calling it down but maybe I play too loose.

I don't understand why you'd call the turn and fold the river. There are only 2 cards you want to see and he's going to bet that river like 98% of the time...or did the queen coming make you scared of one more of his possible holdings. Still, you gotta pay this one off.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

What do I beat on river?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I think this is one of those times where your opponent might think he has the best hand.

You are calling his value bet not his bluff.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do I beat on river?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you beat on the turn then?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
But so are AJd, KJd, QJd, JTd, KTd QTd, maybe even ATd or A8d if he's frisky.

[/ QUOTE ] Might add acouple more hands, KQd, AKd, AQd even if they are more remote. None the less, the six hands first hands I pointed out are definitely reasonable given his play.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all responses.

Why are everyone so consumed with the whole "if you call turn you HAVE TO call river" idea?

If we were to put player A on a range of hands, 77, 99, T8s, JJ are distinct possibilities. But so are AJd, KJd, QJd, JTd, KTd QTd, maybe even ATd or A8d if he's frisky. In addition to the top pair + draw hands he could very well have a 2-pair variation such as J9s or 97s in which case I'm correct to peel one of with my redraw.

It's conceivable he has QQ/KK/AA, but I find that remote based on PF action, but you never know. QQ got there on river and even if he held the kings or aces, I still have 1 yahoo behind me left to act who has taken alot of heat.

ggbman: I strongly disagree with your notion that folding river is "at best horrible". I think it's good poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's horrible poker. Reason folding the turn may be okay is cause you'd have to pay off 2 more bets otherwise. On the river, it's just one more bet for a HUGE pot.
But another reason why folding too easily with a hand this strong is bad is that your more observent players will now tag you as a 'folder', someone who can cap the flop and still fold on the turn or river. In the future, they'll just keep pushing their good draws on the flop (say a straight and flush draw), where mathematically they're not losing anything w/ two cards to go, and just keep betting when they miss, and will occaisionally be able to manipulate you into making a big mistake. You'd have to make a hell of a lot of good laydowns to make up for that 17 bets you just lost by failing to call the river.
If you're so concerned about saving one bet, you ought to look for it by making a couple more marginal value bets or raises, where if you're wrong, it only costs you one bet. Don't look for that extra bet in decisions where if you're wrong the cost is 17 bets.
And frankly, look at your results honestly. I simply don't think that someone who plays like you do has very good results. You may be a winner, but probably just marginal, unless the game is really good.
Also, read Jennifer Harmon's chapter in SuperSystems 2 on calling on the river. She says essentially what I've said above. And Mason Malmuth has written somewhere that the best players seem to be able/willing to fold hands early, but are willing to take a lot of pressure at the end.

As a general observation, it seems that many beginning players (especially on some poker forums) seem to have the notion that what distinguishes great players are their ability to make the "BIG laydown". Poker is way too complex to easily talk about what makes a player great, but on the subject of laydowns in limit poker, save your laydowns for the obvious ones (against very predictible opponents or w/ weak hands multi-way). When you have an iffy situation at the end of a hand, it's best to just throw your money in.
I remember S&M demostrating in an article a few years back that if you threw your money in everytime with any reasonable hand, you're not really giving up that much vs. playing perfect game theory.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Hey Nikla, I don't mind this river fold at all, I don't know if I personally would be able to make it, but I think it is reeeeeeeeeeeeeally close. Like somewhere between 15:1 and 20:1 that you are good. If I didn't have to go get wasted and watch the NCAA games, I'd elaborate further on what I think his range of hands are. Nice hand, in my opinion.
-James

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

You can argue image and metagame considerations all you like. But that is a topic not immediately accessible for analysis, and so is hard to quantify. I'm certain you will agree that winning at poker comes down to making better decisions than your opponents. You're right in assuming that no 1 decision or hand happens in a vacuum, but most of the time it is the single isolated decisions that separate the winners from the breakeven players or the losers.

[ QUOTE ]
Poker is way too complex to easily talk about what makes a player great, but on the subject of laydowns in limit poker, save your laydowns for the obvious ones (against very predictible opponents or w/ weak hands multi-way).

[/ QUOTE ] What if I told you this isn't a that tough laydown?

[ QUOTE ]
. I simply don't think that someone who plays like you do has very good results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is this coming from? I'm very interested in hearing your extensive research for making this claim. I think I do quite well as a pokerplayer. I wouldn't put myself in the expert category, but I'd certainly say I'm bordering on very good.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Ok so... Why did you post this thread? If you don't doubt your laydown, why ask.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. I simply don't think that someone who plays like you do has very good results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is this coming from? I'm very interested in hearing your extensive research for making this claim. I think I do quite well as a pokerplayer. I wouldn't put myself in the expert category, but I'd certainly say I'm bordering on very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not ass kissing at all, but this is rdiculous. From the players I've played with extensively, nickla is the last person I want at my table.

The rest of your comments are pretty good, though.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I think it's okay. I don't see how you can throw hand reading and the river card out the window and call the river bet just because you called the turn bet. It looks like you are behind on the turn but the board isn't scary enough to fold. On the river it is. I also think the 3rd player is easily overlooked on a webpage but should impact decisions.

Krishan

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I thought it was an interesting hand, which might provide the forum with an interesting discussion. Do _I_ need to be in doubt of how I think one should play it to make a handpost?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Was the hand called down? Do you know what the result was?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

"Why are everyone so consumed with the whole "if you call turn you HAVE TO call river" idea?"

Not sure if everyone is obsessed with this idea, but your general point is good one. I think especially so when an opponent shows aggression on the turn and still bets when an overcard to the board hits on the river. In my experience, that usually means a damn good hand.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Interesting coincidence, but see the current post "Interesting Hand Against a Two-Plus-Twoer" where our hero bets a scare card Ace on the river and got the KK to fold.
Now, it is much less likely that he would have bet that scare card if he hadn't pegged the "two-plus-twoer" as a "deep-thinking solid" player (or as I would characterize it, someone who is a bit too predictible and manipulable). And the two-plus-twoer's tendency to fold big hands at the end may save him a bet here or there, but will put him in many situations where he will be put to a tough decision that another player would've avoided.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Nikla,

I quickly read through most of the posts in this thread but I may have missed it - would you have called the river if it were not a diamond, and specifically the Q of diamonds?

Luke

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

i would have seen the last bet in most situatuions(depending on the players)...the pot was already large and u had put a significant amount in it

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

These hands really aren't comparable. I could point out why, but I'm sure you can figure it out yourself.
As for your general argument, tricky players are always tougher than straight forward players. But as long as I am aware of their perception of me, I can use that perception to my benefit aswell.
Furthermore, if you knew me at all you would know I'm very deliberate in taking my hands to showdown. It seems your inital asessment that I'm a "big laydown = great player" type has become the focal point of your argument. In short, you continue to argue image and metagame, I wish you didn't.
As pokerplayers, identifying situations in which you're beat is an integral part of playing well. I'm not saying you won't find situations where you should call even if you will lose the overwhelming majority of the time. This just isn't one of those situations in my opinion.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

If river blanks, I'm calling.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
And frankly, look at your results honestly. I simply don't think that someone who plays like you do has very good results. You may be a winner, but probably just marginal, unless the game is really good.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is hilarious. link

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Player A probably has AJd, KK, QQ, JJ, or maybe J9s. Looks like Player B has a decent PP (66-TT) or has a high card diamond draw that might have paired up on the turn.

If I was you, I'm probably 90-95% sure I'm beat with Player B behind me. I still call this down however. You only need to win 6% of the time and I'd pray A has KK and B has TT. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Everybody should reread what andyfox wrote and remember it.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I would say you are beat here more than 90% of the time but less than 100%. Not knowing the main villian leans me towards calling this particular time but I really don't like the other donk who has been calling along. He may have just hit the flush or straight himself.

There are a lot of situations where if you call the turn you should be calling the river but this isn't one of them. That Qd is about as bad as it gets. Maybe the King would be worse.

I don't think it's a big mistake either way.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

what site was this on?

-brad

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think especially so when an opponent shows aggression on the turn and still bets when an overcard to the board hits on the river. In my experience, that usually means a damn good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. But it wasn't just an overcard- it was a flush card that he bet into two opponents. Not that many good players wouldn't do this with a set or straight, but a lot of players would check-call with those hands (especially given Player's B actions).

So the fact that he still bet out, plus he's unknown, could increase the odds that he's on a suicide bluff mission just enough to tip the scales in favor of a call. IMHO.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
Was the hand called down? Do you know what the result was?

[/ QUOTE ] Player B in CO folded river. Player A took the pot without revealing his cards.

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so... Why did you post this thread? If you don't doubt your laydown, why ask.

[/ QUOTE ]

so that n00bs like you can learn something by reading it

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

I will weigh in against the river fold.

Couldn't our man play the hand the way he did with KK or AA (7 combos). You lose to JJ or QQ (6 combos) with which he could also play the hand the same way. That's better than even money that your hand is best.

Okay, so maybe you have to consider the possibility that he flopped a set or that he got frisky with a huge draw and got there. Let's be extremely generous and say that there is a 40% chance of that leaving you with a 10% chance of winning. Given pot odds, it's an easy call.

I also don't understand why you say that you would definitely call if the river was a blank but feel confident enough to fold on the river Qd. Are the chances of this guy having QQ or Diamonds so high as to make such a difference?

Re: 50/100 hand. Comment please
 

Don't discount the third player in the hand.