Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Just want some opinions.

My resume:

I'm a budding recreational player with about 18 mos experience now. I cash or win local weekly tourneys with some regularity and recently made two final tables in events with 200 entries at the Peppermill.

I won a seat to play in the WPT event at the Hilton last year ($5100) and managed to bust out after about 3 hours with some horrible weak-tight play. I was nervous and intimidated.

I'm debating buying in this year and taking another shot. I'm a much better player than I was this time last year, but obviously don't have much experience playing at this level. With a goal of making it through the first day with an average or above chip count, who would advise that I go for it, and who thinks its a waste of my time and money. Gaining experience at this level might be worth the buy-in??

Please spare me the "we need fish like you in the tounery" comments....

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Can you afford it?

Oh and:

[ QUOTE ]
we need fish like you in the tounery

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

I can afford it.

I guess I'm trying to get to what the EV of this play is for me. There is some analogy to a golf tournament or perhaps a #13 seed winning the NCAA tourney. I'm not sure exactly.

So we have the immediate small expectation of cashing in this tourney + the long term expectation that my game will somehow improve if I pay this $5100 lesson + the miniscule chance I would get face time on the travel channel (which of course would have all kinds of +EV from an ego standpoint)

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Aren't the side tournaments about the same in experience but a hell lot cheaper though?

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

What the hell, go for it. You only live once.

I've worked up the bankroll in about 12 months to play in a smaller buy-in WSOP NLHE event this year (Event #9, plane tickets in hand), and I'm shooting to play in the big event next year.

You gotta set goals to achieve them, baby.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

why not just play some sats?

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Well, the sats are essentially the level I've been at for the past 18 months. My learning curve is still going, but flattening a bit.

I'd like to try to get an idea of where I stand in comparison to the competition. Since I have a dayjob, if my ROI is barely positive at the level I am playing I am happy with that for now.

The question I am trying to ask is: How does one know he's ready to move up???

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

for 99% of the population the idea of "moving up" to televised big buy-in events is rediculous. the bankroll needed to play in them consistently without backing is astronomical. However, that doesn't mean you shouldn't take a shot every once in a while, play in one WSOP to get the experience and such. Of course you can get that experience a lot cheaper than for 10k by winning a satellite. Play the sats, try and win a seat, and if you do enjoy it.

If you do decide to buy-in treat it as a recreational expenditure rather than a poker one.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

There is so much short-term variance in just one tournament that it is hard to really figure out how you stack up against the competition. A bad showing may make you think you are worse than you really are (or it might be correct), and a good showing may make you think you are a lot better than you really are.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

i have considered this same scenario recently.

And i went to 2 separate big tourney events over last 6 months...1 at fox woods, and 1 at tunica.

In both cases i obvioulsy wanted to play the main events, but just couldnt bring myself to pay the full buyin.

Instead, i played the sattelites that were running there. many of them just $150 to 250 sattelites. And for the most part i did evry well in those and could hold my own.

However, once i won a couple of Act II sattelites at foxwoods, which qualifies you for a $1000 buyin Act III, where 1 big event buyin came in for every 10 participants, the story changed.

In this tourney i very quickly realized that the calibre of opposition increased dramatically. In fact, many of the pros
play in those $1000 sattelites, and many fringe players you never heard of or seen but are nonetheless very good players.

I became a bit more timid and weak tight. whever i got some playable pockets, i rarely got a chance to play them cuz someone else would routijnely come in for triple or quadruple the blinds and i'd have to fold.


Whenever i was on blind, someone would always raise them..IE almost no free looks at flop, only to see my dream flop hit with all kinds of action.

And post flop play became much more intimidating too.

I did learn alot tho, but i am very happy i did not invest into a full buyin for that lesson...those sattelites and bigger buy in sattelits

Here's an example:

I'm in BB with AJs, UTG makes it triple the bet.

All fold to me and i call.

Flop AT6 rainbow.

I think he may have AK, but i fire a bet at pot equal to 2 big blinds to see how he reacts.

He comes over the top of me for 1/3 of my stack...i think but have to fold...not many hands i can beat with him basically saying he's got my ace beat.

I talk to him next day and he tells me he had pocket 4's that hand. He said he took control of betting, and when i bet into flop he knew i had ace, but because i didnt bet strong enough he knew he could force me into fold by coming over top even though he was clearly dominated.

When people start stealing pots off you based on these superior reading and guts to pull that off, you're at a huge disadvantage. Thats what separates the contenders from pretenders.

And until u master that its better to get your practice at something less than full 10000 entry fees.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

$5k for this particular event? Could you just do 5 $1k events instead? You get quality opponents there that sound like they would be above your normal level.

This is more of an outsider looking in comment than anything else, so take it with a grain of salt.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

If you can't win your way in via cash game, tourney or satalite you probably don't belong in the WSOP.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

If you can afford it then take a shot but I think you would be better trying to get through the Satellites or Super sattelites or maybe playing a smaller event (if they have them). From the way you are talking your confidance level is such that you prob wont play your a game anyway, are you prepared to play agressive and perhaps bust out earlier, it doesnt sound like it from your post.

You need experience to get experience but if you are only planning on playing these events every now and again then does it really matter. Learn to beat the satellites regular then start using those "free" places to play at the top level.

Good luk whichever you deceide.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

That was a good post PP. There is always layers on layers playing in the big events. He thinks I play like this so...
J Hodges

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

You have to test yourself everyday.

Do it.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Paul's comments are very close to my experience in this event last year. Weak-tight doesnt work, and I would rather go down swinging than anything else.

Orange brings up another old topic: Say your goal is to get into a $5000 tourney. How many sattelite do you play before you give up? I think McEvoy says 2 or 3.

And while I agree in principle that I should be able to win my way in, I do have a dayjob, a 3 year old, etc and can't spend *all* my time in the cardroom. (See B&M forum for the poor showing at supersats at the Hilton...)

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an example:

I'm in BB with AJs, UTG makes it triple the bet.

All fold to me and i call.

Flop AT6 rainbow.

I think he may have AK, but i fire a bet at pot equal to 2 big blinds to see how he reacts.

He comes over the top of me for 1/3 of my stack...i think but have to fold...not many hands i can beat with him basically saying he's got my ace beat. [\quote]

Dude, I may be misreading your post, but it looks as though you severely underbet the flop there.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

I would recommend playing in a few $500 through $2.5k pro tournaments before spending money to buy into a $10k multi-day tournament. Playing against aggressive pros is much, much different than playing in local tournaments. Also, playing in a tournament with deeper stacks and longer rounds also takes adjustment. If there is a WPT event in your area prior to the WSOP try to play in some of the prelim events. Otherwise, either try to get into the main event through a sat. or play some preliminary NL events and if you either cash and have the money to get into the main event or if you feel confident in your chances after playing with pros then and only then would I suggest you consider buying in.

Good luck

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Hey Scoot-

Yeah the event I'm talking about isnt WSOP, its the WPT event here in Reno. I am planning on playing a couple prelims, and have a nice ROI on the single tables they are running.

Main event is $5000+$100.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can afford it.


[/ QUOTE ]


There is "afford" it (you won't be homeless if you pay for the event) and "afford" it (the 10,000 is absolutely meaningless to your life).

I would suggest if it's more of the former, than the latter, you should reconsider and instead satellite it.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com
Can afford it; can't afford it.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

I would want a bankroll of at least 100 buy ins. So when you get a $1,000,000 BR then you should enter.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

LOL Barron!

Is there any of us who couldnt use an extra $5K. (Not that it makes much of a difference, but that is the buyin I'm talking about)

Besides, I won enough to cover the buy-in at the Peppermill last month.-- I could look at that as my sattelite win.

I think I'm in the "take a shot" mode right now. Its not like I travel to go to big tourneys, and the circus is in town....

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

100 buy ins? Percentage of players in the WSOP that buy in that have $1M BR ?????

ok, how many sats would you play then?

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

100 buy-ins should be the benchmark for any tournaments you play regularly. There's nothing wrong with taking a shot at a bigger tournament occasionally, provided you don't go nuts.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Have fun!!

I think you're coming to the conclusion that whether or not it's a +ev move. If you have the money in your grouch bag and it's worth it to you for the fun/experience you'll have, then by all means go for it.

In another thread in this forum, I think I've reached the opposite conclusion personally, but hey I truly respect your decision.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
100 buy ins? Percentage of players in the WSOP that buy in that have $1M BR ?????

ok, how many sats would you play then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not many. But they are all playing outside of realistic BR requirements because they are mostly casual players who want to be on TV. And there's nothing wrong with that, it's just that this is what your BR should be if you are exclusively playing in 10,000 buy in tournaments.


I hate sats.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

At the end of the day, you have to do what you want with your money and you know you far better than I (or anyone) does.

I just personally know too many guys fronting $5,000 and $10,000 for events when that's close to ALL of the money they have in their bankroll.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

thats exactly what happened..hence his coming over the top even though he knew he was beat.

im not saying i played that hand well..even preflop i should either reraise or fold......but i was just nervous and a bit timid.....his big preflop raise UTG Ak was definitely possible, and i didnt want to throw too much out there. In normal games that messgae that i got ace usually makes others with lessor hands laydown..but not against this level on competition...

That was the point..mpre of a respect to the other guy to have the balls to come over the top confidently knowing hes got worse hand.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

If you can afford, I would say to go for it. You will learn from the experience. I got to play in the 5 Diamonds at Bellagio in December and that 8 hours of play rose my level of play by a few notches. You can also get in through satellites for less money.

Frenchie

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The question I am trying to ask is: How does one know he's ready to move up???

[/ QUOTE ]

By winning more sats?

Joe

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Sat. in man, good practice, and if you can't manage to sat in, don't bother, you're just not ready, that's way too many shots to get in cheap, hell, u, myself and 2 other 2+2's could probably get into the main event via sat. if we had the buyin to play with....

>TW<

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

I'm using the $200+25 live NL tournaments at Canterbury Park (Minnesota) as "satellites" for the WSOP regular NL events.

The past couple months I've come in 7th twice and 2nd once.

I'll be at the Rio... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Ok heres my 2 cents.

You live in Reno so Vegas is a 6-7 hour drive if my memory serves me right. If I was you I would go play a 2k event earlier during the WSOP I think theres one June 8 nl hold-em event (don't have my schedule in front of me). Take a three or four day trip down in Vegas. On that trip try 2 super Sat. My reasoning for this is that the WSOP Main event will probably have over 3 thousand players (guess). In my personal opinion 10k is way to much to shell out this early in your Poker Career. So my point even if your were the greatest player in the world with 2 to 3 thousand players you must get extremely lucky during the event(not that you must get a little luck in all events but I think you get my point)
Just my 2 cents

Gene

PS. I'll be out you there June 6 thru 14 planning on playing the 2k event. If anyone wants to get together over a drink & talk some Poker PM me.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

If you are looking for a little pep talk to get your courage up to do what you already are inclined to do here goes:

I will tell you a little story. I had never played in a NLHE tournament until I entered a daily tournament at the Mirage while in Vegas at a convention in the fall of 2003. I placed 3rd. My next tournament experience was at the WSOP main event in 2004 where I went with a small bankroll and won a 1 table satellite the day before the event. I busted out after about 12 hours but I held my own pretty well. Based on that experience I went back out to Vegas to play in a WPT event at the Mirage and won a seat at the $1,000 NLHE event through a satellite. I busted out in about 40 minutes of play. Undeterred I went to another WPT event at the Borgata in AC and played in the $1,000 NLHE event. I won having outlasted a field of 485 players. With a new confidence I entered another $1,000 NLHE event at the Taj Mahal a month later and won that event as well. I talked things over with my wife and decided it was time to take a shot at a large event against the best competition in order to gauge my skill. Am I just on a lucky streak or can I really play this game? I entered the WPT main event at Foxwoods against a field of 674 players. I pulled down 2nd place. In 66 days and three tournaments I had two firsts and a second and 1.2 million added to my bankroll.

That's your pep talk. You can't win if you don't enter. Go for it.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

placing top 2 in those 3 b2b2b events i guess you can rule out pure luck...u gotta have skill to carry u through on top of cards.

Well done.

However, how lucky did you get in your opinion..did the cards play themselves? Did you make tough laydowns....how many close decisions?

How well did you gauge your opponents hands at table, or did you mostly just play your cards?

Reason i'm asking is 1 - im curious 2 - it seems you werent sure yourself if it was luck or skill after second event.

And just how different was the level of competition between the $1000 events and the foxwoods main one?

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Those three tournaments were about 80 hours of poker. There were many "close decisions". In retrospect I would have to say that I was more not unlucky than lucky. By that I mean I did not get unlucky very often. Most of the time I had the best hand when the chips went in and I did not get outdrawn by a larger stack. That to me is not unlucky.

You cannot just play your cards because sometimes the cards don't come. You have to play your opponents as well. I always try and put them on a hand. So far my instincts have served me well.

The competition level in the $10,000 buy-in was definitely tougher. The structure allowed a lot more play as well.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

I agree with MLG - especially the last sentence. I'm playing WSOP event #2 on this basis.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event? ($5000)
 

OK, Halfway to my seat as I chopped a $540 buy in single table sat last night. All the table talk was "commerce this" "rio that" "I played the $10K in San Jose." Blah blah blah. First hand some kid goes all in with AJ. Worse, he gets called by AQ! Amazing.

Anyway, I had good cards but also made some good plays.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event? ($5000)
 

Well done - good start to your campaign.

Re: Should I buy into a Main event?
 

Play in some prelims and sat's and see how you do and how you feel. Perhaps you'll win a seat into the main event, but only you will know how you feel your play matches up against the higher caliber of player. Good luck and let us know how you do.