Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Hello everyone,

A poker friend of mine told me that if I want expert poker advice this is the place to go. This is my first time here and it looks pretty kool so far. I've been a live pro for over 6 years now and played semi-professionaly 3 years before that. I got a computer this xmas and I've been hearing so much about online I decided to give it a shot. A friend set me all up with Party Poker, rake back, poker tracker and something called game time plus. He said you guys would know all about these things.

Anyway, I got off to a decent start. After my first 11,000 hands I was doing 2.5 big bets per 100 hands. You online guys don't deal in hourly rates right?

My next 11,000 I made close to 1 big bet per 100 so I was really liking online so far and thinking I should have done this way sooner. Then I got absolutely positively destroyed in my third 11,000 hands LOSING 2.5 big bets per 100 hands!!

I broke even on my third 11,000 hands and I'm now losing about 1/2 big bet per 100 hands on this batch of 11,000 plus hands. The bottom line is I'm friggin stuck 3 dimes in 50,000 hands!! I gotta be playing bad but I have no idea where. This is the worst I've ever done in poker in my life. We get about 38 hands an hour out where I play live. This is like being stuck after 1315 hours!! I've never came close to playing that long stuck. If this ever happened to me in my live game, I'd quick poker for good.

I know there's not much anyone can say and I'll be posting some hands so you can get a feel for where the hell I'm going so friggen wrong. In the meantime, I assure you I'm no sucker at least in a live game. I told a friend of mine my results so far, and he couldn't believe it. But I think I might be the biggest fish who ever played online.

My first question is how big do you online pros swing? I'm on a +300 big bet downswing. I've never even came close to losing 300 big bets in my life and I've been playing for most of my living for over 9 years now! I'm going to post an AK hand I think I screwed up. But I'd really like to know what you pros have for a bankroll in the 15-30 game (I play 4 tables), and what number of big bets you think is reasonable to slide. Yesterday I was seconds away from taking a 5 iron and smashing this computer to smithereens. Any help or words of encouragement would be appreciated. Thanks.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

First of all,welcome to the forum!

And if my math skills aren´t off, I think that according to your story you should have won something like 50BB or so...

Anyhoo...

I don´t question your ability as a poker player, in fact I´m sure that you are a very solid and winning player if you have been a pro for as long as you say.
But there is a big difference between live poker and online poker. The fact that you have been playing live poker for so long can have a detrimental effect on your online poker. On the other hand after 50k hands you should have been able to adjust.
The aggression factor online is far greater than I have ever experienced in a B&M and more so the party 30. That combined with the fact that you are multitabling could have a negative impact on your winrate...

Huge swings like this are pretty common in highly aggressive games like the party 30 but if you can adjust to the game it´s also highly profitable...

I´m sure things will turn around for you, although you are not on a downswing... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

one tip could be to cut down on the numer of tables that you play...

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Thanks MOdoh!

I agree I'm definitely losing something to playing so many games at once. And while the live games I'm used to can get very aggressive, they are usually not so multi-way as what I've experienced on Party Poker. I suspect I'm not playing big pots well. I'm doing a lot of raising and isolating pre-flop and I'm sure my hands are gaining equity here, but if I'm not playing the hands well after that it's better for my opponents than me. By the way, when you said...

"I´m sure things will turn around for you, although you are not on a downswing... "

Does this mean you don't think I'm running bad, but playing bad? I can take the criticism. I'm sure no one thinks they play bad and I have to admit I have a hard time believing I'm not playing well enough to beat these guys. I am getting them to put in multiple big bets on the turn drawing to very few outs. Unfortunately, they keep getting there. I really do think that most of this is a terrible run of the cards. What I'd like to know from you is, how bad has it ever gotten for you? Thanks.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does this mean you don't think I'm running bad, but playing bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was referring to this...

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I got off to a decent start. After my first 11,000 hands I was doing 2.5 big bets per 100 hands. You online guys don't deal in hourly rates right?

My next 11,000 I made close to 1 big bet per 100 so I was really liking online so far and thinking I should have done this way sooner. Then I got absolutely positively destroyed in my third 11,000 hands LOSING 2.5 big bets per 100 hands!!

I broke even on my third 11,000 hands and I'm now losing about 1/2 big bet per 100 hands on this batch of 11,000 plus hands. The bottom line is I'm friggin stuck 3 dimes in 50,000 hands!!

[/ QUOTE ]

though I´m not a math wizz by any means, I get this to (+2.5+1-2.5-0.5)x110 = roughly +50 BB that isn´t a downswing to me... though you are a substantial loser over your last 22k hands...

The worst downswing I ever had is 200BB over a 20K hands playing 3-6. but that is a while ago. If you are having 200BB or more in a downswing I think it´s time to stop and evaluate your play, I know I did. A good way to start would be to start posting some hands...

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Last year I played A LOT. About 13k hands per week. I had several downswings of 250BB. Never quite made 300, but it is clearly possible. I would say if you play online long enough, it is 100% certain you will have a 200+ BB losing streak.....

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been a live pro for over 6 years now and played semi-professionaly 3 years before that

[/ QUOTE ]

Being a pro for this long and winning fairly consistantly, does not necessarily mean you have a strong grasp of poker. It could just mean your competition is very weak in relation to your abilities. That's the beauty of poker. It doesn't matter how good or bad you are, if the rest of the field is worse than you, you will win.

I would be really interested what limits you normally play live and more importantly is what cardroom.

Start posting some hands. That will give me the biggest indicator to your skill level.

Keep in mind that Party 15/30 has the most interesting mix of really bad players, aggressive players and some very solid players too. This site is by far the most frustrating site to play on because of the huge swings you will go through but it is also by far the most profitable.

My guess is you are a decent player but tilts frequently when you get shown the world's fair on here.

But what do I know, I'm just a cat.

Meow.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Start posting hands and go through lots of hands on this forum. Far as Big swings go, Party 15-30 will give you the biggest online! Toughest, Loosest, Aggresive and most importantly biggest DONKEYS on the planet play there, but it is the best place to play if you can handle it!
I am not a pro, I just supplement my income but I am a heavy player.
I lost 150 BB in 1000 hands the other day, it really suxed but I knew someday it might happen. THe games are just so wild some nights.
Ive been online since its inception and to give you an idea of (swings) bankroll requirements - I keep around 12k in party and keep 7k in paradise where I play 20-40 and some 40-80. Even though it is a bigger game at paradise I think my bankroll is much more comfortable at paradise. The swings are much smaller and I have way more winning sessions but smaller wins of coarse.
The most important thing is to keep your cool on party, don't let the donkeys put you on tilt. If you want to make less but more steady income stay out of the nuthouses!
Mike

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

If you've played 50K hands at the Party 15/30 it should be pretty apparent why big downswings are both possible and probable at that game, even for winning players.

700 BB...
 

...over some 13 k hands or something. I'm not a pro though (but winning long term). /v

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

"Being a pro for this long and winning fairly consistantly, does not necessarily mean you have a strong grasp of poker."

Can't say much on this. I'm not into bragging and you couldn't possibly know how strong or weak my grasp of poker theory is yet. Although you soon will as I start posting more hands. Let's say that it's better than average, but I don't think I'm above learning otherwise I wouldn't have signed up on here. See the AK hand I posted earlier. I do think I botched that up. What do you think and how severe were my errors?

"It doesn't matter how good or bad you are, if the rest of the field is worse than you, you will win."

Couldn't agree more with you on this. I know lots of players people view as good who I consider bread and butter. It's ALL relative. I do consider myself fortunate to have played most of my poker career against some pretty weak competition.

"I would be really interested what limits you normally play"

I log most of my hours playing 40, but sometimes have to settle for 30-60 on days when the 40 doesn't get off. I never play lower than that and will play high as 100-200. Especially when I travel and the game looks good.

"and more importantly is what cardroom."

I decided not to give that info out. I'm pretty well known where I play and even though I might not "necessarily have a strong grasp of poker", my reputation does not come from being one of the biggest fish. I can tell you that I do some traveling and follow the side games at some of the larger tournaments. I don't mean to be rude or sound like a snob, but I have my reasons for keeping my indentity confidential. At least for now.

"My guess is you are a decent player but tilts frequently.."

And I thought cats had good intuition? -lol. You couldn't be MORE wrong. I tilt less than any pro I know and I don't know too many successful pros who have problems with tilt.

Thanks for responding and I'll look forward to reading your posts. Good luck.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Thanks hogger. That's some good info. I'm starting to see that Party has a rep for major aggressiveness much like the notorious Commerce games. I know a very successful Vegas old timer who heard about the great games in Cali. He came back with his tail between his legs. This was a while ago and that's HIS story, not mine. The bottom line is adjustment. I'm sure I've got quite a few to make. I just need to figure out where. So far I'm at a loss. Thanks for responding!

Re: 700 BB...
 

Wow! Now that's sobering dude. Thanks for sharing.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I decided not to give that info out. I'm pretty well known where I play and even though I might not "necessarily have a strong grasp of poker", my reputation does not come from being one of the biggest fish. I can tell you that I do some traveling and follow the side games at some of the larger tournaments. I don't mean to be rude or sound like a snob, but I have my reasons for keeping my indentity confidential. At least for now.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's ok. By stating this, I already know that you play in one of the smaller cardrooms, where the lineup is mostly all regulars. I would venture to guess Northern California but there are other cardrooms around the country that regularly spread 40/80 where the makeup is mostly locals.
[ QUOTE ]
And I thought cats had good intuition? -lol. You couldn't be MORE wrong. I tilt less than any pro I know

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant was that you tilt frequently when you play online thus leading to your bad stats. Online poker is a different animal compared to live poker. It seems much easier to tilt when playing online and I know many live players that struggle with the transition.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know too many successful pros who have problems with tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I know a ton of successful pros that tilt. Jennifer Harman is a known steamer. I don't think being a successful pro precludes you from tilting. I remember watching all those high limit pros all playing with each other and wondering who really wins up there. Then I remember hearing about the law of least tilt. All of them are very astute in most forms of poker. Where the edge comes from is some players are better than others in a particular form of poker and the one that tilts the least that session will win.

Meow.

Re: 700 BB...
 

700 BB over 13K hands? You had to have gone on tilt, right?

- Jags

Re: 700 BB...
 

If I ever went through 700 BB's, I would put myself to sleep.

Meow.

Re: 700 BB...
 

I've played a couple of 100 k hands and never seen anything like it. I know it isn't of course but I could have sworn it was rigged. No matter what I did, I couldn't log a winning session. No good feeling to know that you're gonna loose when you start a game... But yes, somewhere along the road I lost it, starting to throw away chips too easily... .. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] /v

Re: 700 BB...
 

I'm pretty sure I'll quit playing if I ever hit 500

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

I have a buddy that beats the games for around 3BB/100 for over 500k hands. He once had a 600 BB downswing.

Edit: During that 600BB downswing they became even after 30k hands. Basically your 50k hands means nothing since you've proven over 9 years you're a winning player.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have a buddy that beats the games for around 3BB/100 for over 500k hands. He once had a 600 BB downswing.


[/ QUOTE ]

This may sound odd to some people, but this makes sense. He is obviously a good player, and is probably playing more hands than the average 2+2er (but turning them into winners). This increases both his EV and his fluctuations. I'd be curious to see what his VPIP is. I bet it is 21+.

I don't think it's possible to have a 600BB downswing with a VPIP<19ish (assuming the person is beating the game pretty well).

Anyone have thoughts on this? - Jags

Re: 700 BB...
 

never say never...

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

I have one swing of 350BB at 15/30 full, one around 250BB at 15/30 6max, and a couple of 100-150 swings after 340K of my lifetime online hands. Both big streaks have length of around 10K hands.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

<font color="red"> I don't think it's possible to have a 600BB downswing with a VPIP&lt;19ish </font>

Did you mix your signs up? You don't think it's possible to have a 600BB downswing with a vpip GREATER than 19%?

I've been reading through some past posts and I'm pretty astounded that some people on here seem to be are more opposed to playing too tightly than too loose. Why is that? I understand that if you're opponents are really bad you can and should play a few more hands, but I've never in my life heard or read anything which implies that you can't beat a game by playing too tight (before the flop! I know several live game players who can't beat a game because they are too weak/tight after the flop). I'm a very tight preflop player, but believe I play competently after the flop. My vpip is a little over 15%. Am I supposed to believe that this is my major malfuntion?

600 BB downswing from a good player with a 3/100 edge? I have a real hard time getting that to compute. Then again, I'm having a hard time getting my 300BB downswing to compute. Edge must drop like a rock online while standard deviation goes through the roof. A good live player could play his whole life without ever coming close to a 600 big bet downswing. I can tell you that I am thoroughly humbled.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Thank you for sharing. Can I ask what your standard deviation is per 100 hands? I believe mine is awfully low at around 13.5 big bets per 100. My live game standard deviation is also low at less than 9 big bets per hour. But I attribute this to my hand reading abilities. I do NOT read hands nearly as good online so I can't figure out why my SD is so low.

Re: 700 BB...
 

<font color="red"> No matter what I did, I couldn't log a winning session. No good feeling to know that you're gonna loose when you start a game. </font>

You have described my current state in a nutshell. It's not entirely foreign to me. I've had nightmare stretches in live games that I wouldn't wish on a dog. But I've never seen a stretch of such brutal beats both in their nature and sheer frequency as I am currently experiencing online. Before this, I thought I'd seen it all. But I am humbled. I honestly did this was mathematically possible.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

To assume that your winning results at live poker would carry over to online is like a champion tennis player assuming he would be great at ping-pong.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

My variance around 18.5 at 15/30 full and was around 20.5 at 15/30 6 max.

Please note that variance isn't only parameter that influences length and deep of swing. More meaningfull parameter is your bb/100. If you have variance of 13 and ev of 0.5 you can face more tremendous downstreak that i would with higher both EV and variance.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Thanks for responding. I hope I didn't give the impression that I'm some sort of snob. Even in live play, I don't take anything for granted. However, I don't quite get (read: agree), with your analogy.

While tennis and table tennis seem similar, there are different physical properties at work. So not only are there adjustments to be made from one game to the other, there is also the need to understand two distinct theories of how physics affect each game differently.

While it's plainly obvious there are many adjustments needed to go from successful live poker play to online, I don't quite get how the theory is any different. In theory, poker theory should not change just because your opponents are now online instead of live. So you have to adjust, yes. But do I also need to learn a new form of poker theory? Of course, much of this is tongue-in-cheek. I do understand what you're trying to say.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have a buddy that beats the games for around 3BB/100 for over 500k hands. He once had a 600 BB downswing.


[/ QUOTE ]

This may sound odd to some people, but this makes sense. He is obviously a good player, and is probably playing more hands than the average 2+2er (but turning them into winners). This increases both his EV and his fluctuations. I'd be curious to see what his VPIP is. I bet it is 21+.

I don't think it's possible to have a 600BB downswing with a VPIP&lt;19ish (assuming the person is beating the game pretty well).

Anyone have thoughts on this? - Jags

[/ QUOTE ]

less variance doesn't mean it won't happen. My vp is 17 - I am on a bad swing

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

As George Carlin puts it, tennis is ping pong while standing on the court.

Meow.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

I suffered a 450BB losing streak last summer, and am trying to work my way out of a 350BB losing streak now. Maybe tonight it will all turn around for me.

TSP

some math help
 

Hi

As already stated by others bad streaks happen.
If you are a winning player good streaks happen also.
Although 44000 hands with a 0.1 BB/100 winrate is too few to know what your "true winrate" is.
We can draw some conclusions.
You can download a free simple Excel spreadsheet I put together.
http://dreamer5.topcities.com/index5.html

It tells you that after 44K hands at 0.1BB/100 there is a 95% chance your winrate is between -1.39 an 1.59 BB per 100 or a 99% chance between -1.86 and 2.06 BB per 100.

Although this is very few hands to judge performance what we can say is that its highly unlikey your game will put you in the 2.5 BB/100 range that you started out winning at.
If you play with the numbers you will see the number start to converge as you play more hands.
Saying that anybody with 50K hands under their belt who wins at better than 2.5BB/100 is almost certainly not a losing/lucky player.

D.

Re: 700 BB...
 

Believe me, I feel your pain. I think it's a thin line between winning and loosing, just make a few mistakes here and there every hour and your edge is gone. And that's sure more prone to happen when your close to tilting all the time.... I quit for a while, thought it all over, looked around until I found some softer games, started out with a "clear mind" and finally it turned around and I've been doing fine after that. /v

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yesterday I was seconds away from taking a 5 iron and smashing this computer to smithereens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you look like, but somehow I pictured a guy in a tee shirt with a club in his hand and it had me laughing pretty hard. Probably because I can relate to it.

I'd offer advice, but managing the dramatic swings of online poker is possibly the thing I'm worst at in my life. Especially 4 tabling 6 max.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Hi Lestat,

Reading through this thread a few things came to mind. In one post you mention that one of the things you're good at in live play is hand reading. This is a great skill live, particularly against a regular lineup of players, as you probably face live. You might win an extra pot a session just knowing that a certain player will fold to a turn bluff raise in a certain situation. You probably win a few extra bb's per session off of thin value bets because you know your opponents well enough to know you're ahead and will be called anyways. You probably save a simliar amount making laydowns that require a high degree of certainty to be correct folds. All of these little things add up for you in live play, and could more than make up for any systematic errors in your own play.

Online is much less forgiving, especially when you're four-tabling. Four-tabling online is really just being a robot, implementing a set strategy that you know will be profitable in the long-term. Yes, you have PokerTracker to allow you to adjust to opponents and make better table selection, but for the most part you play a formulaic strategy. If you have carried over significant systematic errors from your live career to your online one, but cannot carry over the edge you gain from knowing your opponents inside and out, you will inevitably lose money.

What I'm saying here is that it's possible for you to be a long-term winner live and a long-term loser online.

If I were you I would scale back to 1 or 2 tabling and go back to the books, try to really put your technical skills under the microscope.

It is certainly possible to have a 300 bb downswing while being a winning player, as several people here have attested to. However, IT IS VERY RARE. The people here who have these downswings typically have hundreds of thousands of hands under their belt with one or two of these huge downswings. You have 50,000 hands or so. You could be a winning player on an unlikely downswing, but the more probable explanation is that you aren't a winning player, or that you are only a marginal winning player.

Assuming that you are a losing player and trying to fix your game cannot hurt you. Assuming that you are a winning player and just getting unlucky can lead to ruin.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

I am just now coming out of (keeps fingers crossed since you really do not know until you can look back historically) a 330BB downswing in the 15/30 after beating it consistently for a little over 1.5BB/100 over 30k+ hands. Just a little above breakeven after 3 months of hard work....

I have a VPIP of ~17/TA a little over 2. Since the streak, I have tightened up considerably preflop and have dropped to around 14-15 and unfortunately feel I am playing a tad weak/tight after the flop now due to the swing.

Obviously I feel like crap, but I have played for a lot of years. I just began playing full time last year and this really caused me to soul search, spend a lot of time in the books and of course on the forums. I have also gone back through my PT hands and found a few leaks that I have worked on and that has been a very good exercise.

For me, the thing that ultimately has kept me feeling OK about the game have been large MTTs. I took a first in the Paradise 50k this week for $11k so that essentially wiped out my losses from the streak and banked additional funds. Its almost as if February never happened, though the mental scars are still there lol. Right now, my next issue is to seriously look at my game and make some decisions about whether Limit play is really my strength or whether I should spend more time on NL tourney play.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Four-tabling online is really just being a robot, implementing a set strategy that you know will be profitable in the long-term.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think four-tabling is about the limit you can play AND still focus and pay attention to most of the action as long as you are using 1600x1200. I honestly don't know how these nutsos are 8+ tabling but then again, from my poll last month, most players playing that many tables are only doing it in the micro limits up to 3/6. Once you get up to 15/30 and up like me, playing any more tables than four is bankroll/flucuation suicide. But that's only cause my little cat brain can't process that much information so quickly.

Meow.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

Well obviously it depends on the person. I'm pretty slow, and play 3 tables full or 2 tables short. I don't like to have two hands in play at the same time very often, and 3 is a disaster for me.

But I hope you'd agree in general - that playing multiple tables makes you play MORE robot-like and makes you less able to make opponent-dependant decisions.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

His VPIP is between 17 and 19.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
To assume that your winning results at live poker would carry over to online is like a champion tennis player assuming he would be great at ping-pong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like and agree with almost everything you write, but this is a horrible analogy.

Re: Pros, what\'s your biggest downswing?
 

i disagree with everything he writes, but i find this analogy to be quite accurate. it may be a little dramatic, but gets the point across well.