$1k WPT sat hand
 

$1k live sat. 86 players. 3000 starting chips. Top 8 get $10k WPT seat + $500. 9 and 10 get $1000 tourney seat.

27 players left. Blinds 400-800. You are in SB w/ about 20k. You are #2 in chips at the table, guy to your right has about 25k. Both of you are among chip leaders. Nobody else at the table has over 10k. Most players in the tournament are pretty bad.

Folded to MP who goes all-in for just over 6k. You have played with him for 45 min or so, a few orbits. He pushed on the button after a limper and in the BB after 1 limper, both times no call. He pushed once from EP and was called. He showed ATs that hand and won. Other than those three hands, he has folded.

You have 99. BB is going to fold. Call or fold?

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

Based on this scenario I fold here. You are only in for 400 chips at this point. Why put more than a quarter of your stack in when it is a possible race situation? It sounds like you have a good read on your table and are in a good chip position at this point of the tournament. There are too many hands that with a little help can beat 99 here.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

Fold.

The only way to call this bet is if those 6000 chips are going to virtually guarentee you a seat at the final table and a pay day. Which I don't think they will YET.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

You already have a pretty good stack position which you have built by SKILL. Dont let this guy double his stack up with a coin flip. You really need to let this go. Keep playing you game and adding to your stack WHILE protecting your chips. Especially because an extra six k is great for him, but not that much more useful for you....I mean that in the sense that being at 26k from 20k is useful, but it is a lot worse to drop that 6k than to gain that 6k. Am i making sense here? Ive been in china for about a month and a half, so my english is getting worse and worse. If it isnt clear let me know, and I will use EV or something, cause 2+2ers apparently can only understand poker in terms of EV, and not GOOD and BAD. lol.

holla back

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

its probably pretty close EV wise, so it all depends on what tourney EV those 7k chips bring you and what they lose you.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

I muck it.
If it is a regular tourney, it is close.
But here you are not playing for first, just top 8.
So protecting chips is much more important.
Based on range of hands, I think you are a little bit of an underdog, so the sat reasoning makes it definitive in my mind.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

It's not even close. Jeopardizing your stack for 400 chips is pointless. Obviously, you are one of the better players in the tournament, continue to protect your stack until you have to build your stack further.

Classic TPfAP.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's not even close. Jeopardizing your stack for 400 chips is pointless. Obviously, you are one of the better players in the tournament, continue to protect your stack until you have to build your stack further.

Classic TPfAP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree with you, but the fact that he has 400 chips "invested" in the pot is irrelevant.
I fold here because it's a supersat, and chip position is important. In a regular tourney, I probably come closer to calling.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

Hi,

I'm going to disagree with everyone else.

I think this is a call. This is a live event, you're only going to see around 30 more hands before you have less then 10x the BB given how fast the structure moves and how slowly the players play. The avg stack when you get into the money will be 32k so a win here will put close enough you won't have to gamble like MP is doing. If you fold you are going to have to gamble shortly anyways and you will still have most of the table covered in case you get unlucky two twice.

Later,
MarkV.

Re: Sossman
 

What do you need to call here? I'd personally call with 66-AA or AJ-AK. I think it's worth it for advertisement alone, because you're the big stack and you don't want small stacks pushing your blinds.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

What do you mean by 'pretty bad'?

If you can steal your way into a 30K stack you shouldn't go anywhere near this pot, but if they're mostly calling stations I think you want this last flip.

Re: Sossman
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you need to call here? I'd personally call with 66-AA or AJ-AK. I think it's worth it for advertisement alone, because you're the big stack and you don't want small stacks pushing your blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling off a third of your stack for "advertisement alone" is probably the dumbest thing I've ever heard.


Like others said this seems very marginal either way. In the satellite I would just muck it - I don't think you're close enough to the end yet where you can guarantee yourself a seat by winning a coin flip here. Then again, it would really help for you to know about the other top stacks in the tournament right now.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

I was on the fence about calling, but then I looked at the structure. 20 min levels makes this structure super fast. Usually that would be an argument for calling, but I think it works the opposite way in this case. Everybody at the table is under 10k except for 2 players, as the blinds escalate they are going to be pushing in more and more desperate situations with less and less hand. I think even if you pick up a good hand later, even if its worse than 99, and you call an all-in (even if its for a larger percentage of your stack than this all-in is) your probably going to be in better shape against the range of all-in pushes than you are in this situation. I make you at about 55% here using a pretty large range (I used Aces through 7 and pairs through 55, KQ/KJ).

Also, you need about 12k more or so to have an average stack at 8 people. Winning 6k helps but doesnt get you to treading water territory by any means, while losing 6k here greatly dibilitates your ability to steal. Play small pots against the short stacks, gamble when they are even more desperate.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

nice post MLG. i like your analysis.

Re: Sossman
 

You've seen the guy push 3 times already preflop. One of them was AT from ep, you're certainly ahead of the range he pushes from the button. You're way way out of the money. So you call knowing your 55/45 and that people will be less likely to push against you in the blinds regardless of the outcome.

You think this is a clear fold what range do you need to call with?

Results
 

I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up.

I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
as the blinds escalate they are going to be pushing in more and more desperate situations with less and less hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a great point and this is why I edged towards thinking fold was better in this spot. In this round, I'm pushing in this spot w/ hands that are probably coinflip at best for 99. One more round, and I'm pushing here w/ hands that 99 fares much better against. So, very shortly, as you point out, this guy can take stands and be much more likely to have way the best of it.

Re: Sossman
 

Don't get me wrong, Kuro, in a regular tournament this is a very easy call. The problem, though, is that we're not playing for first. I don't want to coinflip 1/3 of my stack away to a point where I will <i> have to </i> make a big move to get a seat.

As for my range, its hard to say. I think its very borderline either way. I would very strongly consider calling with tens, definitely call with jacks or better. Also I'm calling AQ+.

Re: Results
 

I agree. It seems incredibly marginal either way.

Re: Results
 

haha great post.

I'll have to try the reverse post sometime.
His call sucked - but if he sucked, then the call was good for him.

Blackjack

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am also quite amazed to see how easily people here say it's a fold. There are certainly good arguments for folding here, but in certain conditions (even if opponents are "bad", it really depends on what kind of "bad" are they), a call here - in what seems to be a clear +CEV sitution, and in order to become the chip leader in the table, which is extremely helpful in sats even more than in normal structure (due to the nature of the bubble in sats, and the great importance that people give to survival) - looks like a reasonable option. Sorry for this long and awkward sentence.

I'd say it is still far enough from the money, and stacks are relatively short, in order for this spot to be (at least) very close. It also very much depends on the ability of the caller to play big stack vs. his ability to play medium-big stack at such events, IMO.

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

I'd probably fold because it seems likely you only have a small edge against this guy in this hand and the pain of losing 6,000 chips at this stage is going to be greater than the benefit of winning 6,000 in my opinion. 1200 extra from the blinds makes it tempting though.

Mack

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am also quite amazed to see how easily people here say it's a fold. There are certainly good arguments for folding here, but in certain conditions (even if opponents are "bad", it really depends on what kind of "bad" are they), a call here - in what seems to be a clear +CEV sitution, and in order to become the chip leader in the table, which is extremely helpful in sats even more than in normal structure (due to the nature of the bubble in sats, and the great importance that people give to survival) - looks like a reasonable option. Sorry for this long and awkward sentence.

I'd say it is still far enough from the money, and stacks are relatively short, in order for this spot to be (at least) very close. It also very much depends on the ability of the caller to play big stack vs. his ability to play medium-big stack at such events, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, but if he calls this and loses to lets say AQo in a race, would your response be the same if the guy pushed his new 12,000 stack and hero had JJ and calling would eliminate him, I think i would call with the 99 if i had 30k but probably not if i had 20k.

Mack

Re: $1k WPT sat hand
 

I think this is a fold. I'll guess his pushing requirements are 66+, TJs+, KJo+. I don't have poker stove on this computer, and I am on my first cup of coffee and don't really feel like doing the math, but I am sure you are positive ev here (I think about 52-53% pot equity + some dead money), but I still don't think in this situation it is worth it. Blind steals seem to be very viable, and the general level of competition is weak. You should be able to safely steal your way into the top 8, and I would hate to lose my huge chip advantage and double up someone who has some idea of what he is doing. You would still have 14k if you called and lost, so it would not be that bad, but I am leaning towards a fold.

In a normal tourney I call here no question.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up.

I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

How close am I on your pushing hands in that position?

Re: Results
 

Lets talk about your push with KQ for a minute...

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lets talk about your push with KQ for a minute...

[/ QUOTE ]

What's to talk about? MP with KQ folded to you with 7.5BB, who doesn't push?

Re: Results
 

I'd like to know this too, I was on the right track with taking the A's down to A7
but i didn't stop the pairs with presto 55.
Is this typical, to throw out 44-22 on range of hands below 10bb?

1 calculate the pot odds for - your hand 99
what is in the pot now 7300
2 what is the action to you 5700 pot odds 1.28
3 what hands can your opponent have probability
made hand AA-TT 30 hands 15%
draw AK-A7 x o 112 hands 54%
88-22 42 hands 15%
Kq kJx 20 hands 6%
bluff 133 hands min 10% max ?
204 real hands 100%
4 how does your hand play against each above win
made hand AA-TT 18%
draw AK-A7 x o 60%
;88-22 81%
Kq kJx 55%
bluff KTs, Q4s, 74s, K5o, JTo, 32o 80%
5 what is the win rate of each range probability win
made hand AA-TT 15% * 18% = 3%
draw AK-A7 54% * 60% = 32%
88-22 15% * 81% = 12%
Kq kJx 6% 55% 3%
bluff KTs, Q4s, 74s, K5o, JTo, 32o 10% * 80% = 8%
pot odds 1.28 win rate 59%

pot odds 5 to 4 win rate 3 to 2 call

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up.

I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

How close am I on your pushing hands in that position?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty close.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lets talk about your push with KQ for a minute...

[/ QUOTE ]

What's to talk about?