2-4 Party JJ hand
 

So, pretty much no reads except I have no respect for my opponents. I should work on this...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (18.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 20.75 BB

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

I think this is fine. Reads would help. Would you fold to a turn 3-bet?

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

I think I would raise the flop so hopefully UTG+1 3-bets the field and faces them with two cold.

A flush draw or OESD isn't going anywhere but you can fold small pairs and gutshots from outdrawing you and go from there.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

u played it alright

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Why did you call the flop and raise the turn? If you think your hand is usually best you should raise the flop, if you don't you shouldn't raise the turn. This isn't a 'wait til the turn to protect' spot.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Why isn't this a wait til the turn to protect spot? This seems just about perfect for it. Is it the fact that you would be more inclined to wait til the turn when you are much more confident you have the best hand on the flop?

Thanks,
DeathDonkey

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

You can't protect your hand on the turn in this spot -- your position to the aggressor allows everyone to call before you raise. You're trapping them, not forcing them out. I like a flop raise because you can force them out if the aggressor 3-bets. If he just calls, you can take the lead in the hand.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Your relative position makes protection impossible.

EDIT: ugh, I'm always too late.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why isn't this a wait til the turn to protect spot? This seems just about perfect for it. Is it the fact that you would be more inclined to wait til the turn when you are much more confident you have the best hand on the flop?

Thanks,
DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Waiting until the turn sucks in this hand. It mainly has to do with his range of hands that he will bet the flop with (pretty much anything) and his range of hands that he will bet the turn with (overpairs and not AK). When he bets the turn, we are almost surely drawing to just 2 outs. If we are going to raise, we need to pop the flop when it is still possible that we are good.

Brad

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Well of course, the wait til the turn to raise play isn't really about protection so much it is about value and equity. This seems like a decent spot to me except for the fact that we may not have the best hand. Had one of the others bet the flop in early position and not the PFR I think this would be a great spot to wait until the turn to raise.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

So it is the fact that we are not confident we have the best hand then, as I originally guessed? I don't see the point in raising a draw heavy flop with no way to fold out the others even if we do have the best hand. In this case wouldn't the best play be then to call on the flop and then either call or fold on the turn if we are drawing to 2 outs as you suggest?

If you are subtly advocating a call on the flop then I agree, but there isn't much point in a flop raise here.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
So it is the fact that we are not confident we have the best hand then, as I originally guessed? I don't see the point in raising a draw heavy flop with no way to fold out the others even if we do have the best hand. In this case wouldn't the best play be then to call on the flop and then either call or fold on the turn if we are drawing to 2 outs as you suggest?

If you are subtly advocating a call on the flop then I agree, but there isn't much point in a flop raise here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raise on the flop is for both value and information. If he 3-bets, then I think we can call and safely muck on the turn. If he just calls, then we likely have the best hand are therefore getting value out of it.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Seeing whether he bets a turn blank would pretty much accomplish the same thing. How many times do you see someone bet the turn with AK unimproved into 3 opponents (for example).

-DeathDonkey

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So it is the fact that we are not confident we have the best hand then, as I originally guessed? I don't see the point in raising a draw heavy flop with no way to fold out the others even if we do have the best hand. In this case wouldn't the best play be then to call on the flop and then either call or fold on the turn if we are drawing to 2 outs as you suggest?

If you are subtly advocating a call on the flop then I agree, but there isn't much point in a flop raise here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raise on the flop is for both value and information. If he 3-bets, then I think we can call and safely muck on the turn. If he just calls, then we likely have the best hand are therefore getting value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is that it might make the pot so big that you will have to call the turn. If everyone calls the 3-bet on the flop we are looking at like 19:1 on the turn. Calling the flop and then folding the turn looks like the best line to me.

Brad

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So it is the fact that we are not confident we have the best hand then, as I originally guessed? I don't see the point in raising a draw heavy flop with no way to fold out the others even if we do have the best hand. In this case wouldn't the best play be then to call on the flop and then either call or fold on the turn if we are drawing to 2 outs as you suggest?

If you are subtly advocating a call on the flop then I agree, but there isn't much point in a flop raise here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raise on the flop is for both value and information. If he 3-bets, then I think we can call and safely muck on the turn. If he just calls, then we likely have the best hand are therefore getting value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is that it might make the pot so big that you will have to call the turn. If everyone calls the 3-bet on the flop we are looking at like 19:1 on the turn. Calling the flop and then folding the turn looks like the best line to me.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Would this be different if say, only 1 of the MP called and the other folded?

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So it is the fact that we are not confident we have the best hand then, as I originally guessed? I don't see the point in raising a draw heavy flop with no way to fold out the others even if we do have the best hand. In this case wouldn't the best play be then to call on the flop and then either call or fold on the turn if we are drawing to 2 outs as you suggest?

If you are subtly advocating a call on the flop then I agree, but there isn't much point in a flop raise here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raise on the flop is for both value and information. If he 3-bets, then I think we can call and safely muck on the turn. If he just calls, then we likely have the best hand are therefore getting value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is that it might make the pot so big that you will have to call the turn. If everyone calls the 3-bet on the flop we are looking at like 19:1 on the turn. Calling the flop and then folding the turn looks like the best line to me.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't understand "Calling the flop and then folding the turn"

how can you do this when no one showed any kind of agression to the UTG+1 on the flop?... is this just bc he capped PF?... could he not have TT/JJ just as easily as he could have QQ-AA?... or how bout something retarded like AKs that he just leads until raised w/ (obviously the river lead shows he prob doesn't have that... but we're talkin bout the flop/turn here so we don't know that yet)...

i just don't see how you can fold an overpair to the board when everyone is just calling crap just cuz someone keeps leading...

and reads woulda helped a lot here too...

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]


i don't understand "Calling the flop and then folding the turn"

how can you do this when no one showed any kind of agression to the UTG+1 on the flop?\

[/ QUOTE ]

Slow down and read closer. Brad said call the flop and fold the turn IF Hero raises and UTG 3-bets the flop.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
TT/JJ just as easily as he could have QQ-AA?...

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually no. 18:7 he has QQ-AA.

[ QUOTE ]
i just don't see how you can fold an overpair to the board when everyone is just calling crap just cuz someone keeps leading...


[/ QUOTE ]

This first level thinking will get you by at micro stakes but eventually you need to go a little deeper. An unknown caps preflop from UTG and then keeps betting into you. We may have an overpair but we can't beat much that he holds.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

I don't think he said/meant to say this. I think he wanted to just call the flop and fold the turn if bet into again.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Either just call the turn or fold the river. Really, you're in real trouble on the turn. You're really praying he has AK of one of two suits.

-Michael

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

The idea behind my reasoning is that he will be betting the flop with all his hands. After he bets the turn, the odds that we are still good go way down. Let's say that the villian will only cap AA-QQ and AK in this spot. After he bets the flop, he could have any of these hands. But after he bets the turn, you can throw AK out the window and we should fold.

Brad

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Hero could have TT, AKc, AKs.

-Michael

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
But after he bets the turn, you can throw AK out the window and we should fold.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt throw out AK spades or clubs(and 1010)...

edit: Michael beat me to it...

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

Calling the turn is really dependent on what he will cap with. I have no idea what he will cap with (calling the turn makes no sense against someone who will only cap AA for example) so it is hard to say, but if you include TT you have to call all the way should the river brick out. I was trying to make the point that the turn raise makes little sense (not just in the context of this hand but in general).

Brad

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the turn is really dependent on what he will cap with. I have no idea what he will cap with (calling the turn makes no sense against someone who will only cap AA for example) so it is hard to say, but if you include TT you have to call all the way should the river brick out. I was trying to make the point that the turn raise makes little sense (not just in the context of this hand but in general).

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the reasons I raised the turn instead of the flop was the presence of the 2 players drawing between UTG+1 and myself. I basically was looking to make them pay the most to see the river. I'm not sure if this is flawed thinking though.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

The problem I have with the wait till the turn plan is that if UTG fires again on the turn, you are in trouble.

That being said, it's entirely possible you will be able to raise someone else's bet. And there is going to be a pretty big equity shift between the flop and turn if your Js are the best hand, so I don't mind this play at all. But once UTG fires into three others on the turn, I definitely just calldown.

-Michael

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, it's entirely possible you will be able to raise someone else's bet. And there is going to be a pretty big equity shift between the flop and turn if your Js are the best hand, so I don't mind this play at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my exact thinking on the flop. I think I may have misapplyed Ed's overpair example in SSHE here because of the action that went down pre-flop.


[ QUOTE ]
But once UTG fires into three others on the turn, I definitely just calldown.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

My plan was to raise the turn, and fold to a 3-bet. If only called I would take a free showdown unimproved or fold to a bet if a scare card fell. I didn't want to call the river bet, but since it was heads up in a 20 BB pot I caved. I was then shown AA.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

I just call the flop here as well mainly to see if UTG+1 leads again or checks the turn. Plus even though it seems you have no way to protect your hand if it is good right now that may change on the turn. If it is good UTG+1 will often check the turn and you may get a chance to raise a bet from one of the opponents in between.

When UTG+1 leads the turn, as has been said already, you're likely behind. Assuming AKs, AKc, or TT are the only hands you're ahead of...and for arguments sake lets say there's a 50% chance TT caps preflop...then you're behind 18 combinations of QQ-AA and ahead of 5 combinations (only counting half of the six for TT). So there's about a 20% chance you're ahead (5/23). But even this is high because there are times that UTG+2 or MP3 holds the best hand and is just afraid to raise. Plus I'd say the 20% chance alone that you have UTG+1 beat is probably on the high side. So I'd say your JJ may be good in reality 10-15% of the time here. I would guess you're looking at at least one flush draw plus a couple of overcards and maybe even one opponent with a pair so there are probably 15-20 river cards that will nulify your jacks. So say 40% of the time that you are good you'll be drawn out on anyway.

So that means you're winning this pot about 40% of 15% or 6% of the time. 4% of the time you'll catch a J as well so maybe closer to 10%. So I'd say it's enough to call down but I really can't argue with anyone saying to fold either.

The truth is I really don't mind the turn raise that much but only if it's the last bet you put in. It's obviously the correct play those times your hand is good and it only costs you 2 BB's when it's not. So I'd say the turn is pretty close between fold/call/raise. But without a read on UTG+1 I really couldn't fold this river either so I think call/call is best.

Interesting hand.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can't protect your hand on the turn in this spot -- your position to the aggressor allows everyone to call before you raise. You're trapping them, not forcing them out. I like a flop raise because you can force them out if the aggressor 3-bets. If he just calls, you can take the lead in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he 3-bets you're likely in trouble.

Re: 2-4 Party JJ hand
 

I don't see the point in raising this hand at any point post-flop and raising the turn is particularly bad IMO. At least with a flop raise if villain reraises and leads the turn you can safely fold if you haven't spiked your jack.

Against many players you can safely fold the turn if you haven't improved and villain leads out again. But against a total unknown you think he may be overplaying a hand like AKs or TT. Fine. So call it down. But you will be behind here often and you want the other players between you and villain hanging around for those (many) times that you are, in fact, drawing. There are not many hands you would like them to fold that beat the hand you are trying to make (one example would be QTo) other than ones they simply will not fold (i.e., a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw).