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-   -   never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=198940)

meanjean 02-19-2005 04:08 PM

never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (26 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Wow, I have odds to call with my 3 outs

Turn: (16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

gut shot...


River: (16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Some guy named Ed said never fold in a big pot unless you're sure your beat...so I called

Final Pot: 19 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has Jd Qd (one pair, sixes).
Hero has 5c 5h (two pair, sixes and fives).
CO has As 9d (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 19 BB. </font>

housenuts 02-19-2005 04:31 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

Nick C 02-19-2005 04:32 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
After all the limp-reraising preflop, no one seems to like their hand very much anymore.

I guess in retrospect it looks like you should have bet the turn. (If you are ahead, you benefit from driving out any unduplicated overcards that you can.) But with 5 opponents and 3 overcards on the board, it's hard to imagine you'll be ahead at this point very often. And I don't think anyone's folding a pair in a pot this big.

I like the river call. CO and UTG+1 did both slow down significantly after raising preflop, which makes it look like they both just have overcards. Getting 18:1, closing the action, I think you'll be good here often enough.

meanjean 02-19-2005 04:45 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 5's and a backdoor straight draw

about 3 outs in my opinion

BonJoviJones 02-19-2005 04:49 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
A one-card backdoor straight though. Any five will chop (although you do have an extra) but it will also be hard to extract any serious money with 4-to-a-straight on the board.

einbert 02-19-2005 04:52 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 5's and a backdoor straight draw

about 3 outs in my opinion

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the fives puts a three-flush on the board. I give you about 2 outs, still enough to make the call.

Fold PF though.

meanjean 02-19-2005 05:04 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]

Fold PF though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?...I have a shot at a set and getting the whole pot?
it's 1 in 8 right...I think there are enough people to get paid if I hit...

Nick C 02-19-2005 05:08 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
Hero is getting an immediate 14:2 on his call of the 3-bet. It could go on to get capped behind him by CO, or there could just be additional calls. (Or, as actually happened, someone could decide to limp-call-cap.)

In any event, I think Hero's preflop play is fine. Even though the preflop action does cut down on his implied odds, I don't think Hero should fold preflop for two more small bets with so many people in the pot, once he's already put money in.

Grvnhigh 02-19-2005 05:12 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
Folding preflop is disgustingly bad. You are getting an immediate 14:2 when it comes back around to you,and likely better when all is said and done. Even if you knew that the original raiser would cap it, a call here is guaranteed +EV with your implied odds.

That said, I have a hard time overcalling on the river, even closing the action. I probably would do it anyway, because when you see something that is really out of line (like this postflop action), it often indicates that somebody has a screw loose.

Ni Han

Nate tha' Great 02-19-2005 05:16 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
Bet the turn.

private joker 02-19-2005 05:17 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
I had a very similar hand the other day. The street I misplayed is the turn, where I definitely should have raised. I had such a strong read that MP1 was full of crap that I had to blow away the field and make it heads-up to ensure my victory. Luckily my mistake didn't prove fatal, and although I still failed to improve, I called for one bet in a large pot.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (18 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (17 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 19 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP1 has 5s 4h (two pair, queens and fives).
Hero has 6s 6d (two pair, queens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 19 BB. </font>

bobbyi 02-19-2005 05:18 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 5's and a backdoor straight draw

about 3 outs in my opinion

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are overly optimistic about the flop situation. There is a two flush out there that you have no part of which taints both your set and your straight possiblities. Even if no one has a flush draw (and with this many people in, someone often will), you can still hit and lose because if you catch the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (or a diamond straight card), a fifth of the time or so another diamond will come on the river. Given that it got capped preflop, there is a real chance that you are against pocket kings and only the straight is winning for you. Your odds aren't as good as they look because there is a reasonable chance that it could get raised behind you. I'm not saying you should fold this flop; the pot is so big that when you do have five outs, you are getting a very nice overlay, which will make up for all the bad things that can happen, and your implied odds if you hit are pretty nice. I would call here as well. I think the situation isn't quite as great as it might appear.

Folding preflop at any point would just be ridiculuous, btw. Your preflop play was very solid.

Cerril 02-19-2005 05:20 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
Did you have a read that this table was this bad? A9o raising, QJs three betting? With players that L-A you can probably safely bet the turn and call the river. If your read had said your opponents were more reasonable, then you might be looking at a fold instead of an overcall there.

Richie Rich 02-19-2005 05:32 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
Way to stick in there, champ. But there are two things I'd like to point outh: (1) low pocket pairs should not be played when players are typically capping btf...that's because the final pot would have to be &gt; 16BB in order to be a +EV; (2) after the flop, you only had one clean out.

bobbyi 02-19-2005 05:49 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
low pocket pairs should not be played when players are typically capping btf...that's because the final pot would have to be &gt; 16BB in order to be a +EV

[/ QUOTE ]
12 BBs went in preflop. You're honestly trying to say that on average less than 4 more are going to go into this pot postflop? Really?

me454555 02-19-2005 06:11 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
I would disagree here. The presence of the K on the board and all the callers and raisers pf makes it likely that someone has a K. Had the flop been 9 high, I'd say bet.

Then again, maybe this falls under bet to protect your hand and I'm all screwed up again.

chesspain 02-19-2005 06:32 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Folding preflop is disgustingly bad. You are getting an immediate 14:2 when it comes back around to you,and likely better when all is said and done. Even if you knew that the original raiser would cap it, a call here is guaranteed +EV with your implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yup

Nate tha' Great 02-19-2005 06:32 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I would disagree here. The presence of the K on the board and all the callers and raisers pf makes it likely that someone has a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that everyone is checking it makes it extremely unlikely that someone has a K.

DMBFan23 02-19-2005 06:49 PM

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?
 
I actually like the K here because it makes it less likely that high cards call. but I admit I never thought of a turn bet.


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