Going for the gold
 

I'm 23 and have been a successful poker player for about 4 years now. I play in the winter and run a lawn biz in the summer. I recently started trading about 4 months ago. I got tired of playing cards.. just seemed like a constant grind that I never see myself gettin rich at. I'd average about $2500 a month profit but after my morgage payment and other expenses, I wasn't making as much as I'd like. I have all the goods now.. insider purchase alerts, live newsires, and the advanced anylyzer from ameritrade. I put $3500 into the account and now have 8k. Apparently the government has restrictions on what a daytrader can do if they have less then 25k in their account (long explaniation, but they'll lock up your margin and shorting ability). Well I don't know how they say most daytraders lose, but I see ridiculous returns on stocks that i've missed. Make a long story short.. I'm going to get me a 40k home equity loan tomorrow and im going for the gold! Plannin on making 100k minimum the first year.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I recently started trading about 4 months ago. I'm going to get me a 40k home equity loan tomorrow and im going for the gold! Plannin on making 100k minimum the first year.

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Yikes! I hope you are kidding. If not, I hope you reconsider. If this is what you want to do, take some time and plan it right. But definitely give it more than four months before you mortgage the house. That is 80-85 trading days at most.

Re: Going for the gold
 

A few comments on your upcoming venture:

1. People trade way differently with FU money than with a larger bankroll that could have serious implications to your lifestyle if lost. It like playing craps and tossing a buck on a hardways bet - who cares if you lose it.

2. Now that you have all that "sophisticated" stock information at your disposal - you have 10% of the information that an average Wall Street trader has at their fingertips.

3. In general, I think day traders over-exaggerate their results (similar to poker players). Most Wall Street traders would kill for a 25% return every year.

Take your 40K and invest in some new lawn mowers or a business that you can use your skills in the winter.

Re: Going for the gold
 

So what else would a wall street trader have on top of me? I also see 25% return a year way below what is possible. With the live streaming news, there are an average of 3 decent stories a day on otcbb stocks. Out of those 3.. 2 seem to be hype, where the 3rd one moves the stock 100-200% for the day. The hype stocks average a small gain or loss up to 30%. I compare it to poker, bet 1k at 3k and you only need to win 1 in three times. The odds on the stocks are better, bet 4k and stand to win 4k-8k once and lose 1200 twice. Just a couple stocks that have run like this in the last couple weeks after the press release.. bvle went from .50 to $1.40. Alti went from something like 2.25-5.00. And today, Sfxc went from .055 to .18. All had nice volume so low volume isn't a factor.

Re: Going for the gold
 

I don't understand where you think you are getting your edge.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I'm 23 and have been a successful poker player for about 4 years now...Plannin on making 100k minimum the first year.

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I think you need to re-evaluate your poker situation if you have been playing seriously for 4 years now and cannot make 100k a year doing it.

Re: Going for the gold
 

I don't know of many people who make 100k a year playin cards, but those that do are probably puttin in a ton of hours. Poker becomes there life, and unless they win a big tourny, 100k will be the max they will average. With trading your profits seem unlimitless.. as your bankroll increases so do your possible profits. You could have 100 mil but your not going to find a 1mil-2mil limit holdem game, that will allow you to keep increasing your bankroll on an exponetial basis.

Re: Going for the gold
 

4 months? You've never seen a real down market yet then... all you've seen is stocks move higher and higher.

I hope you are kidding.

-RMJ

Re: Going for the gold
 

I've been on the sideline of the markte for a few years. The last time I was in it was back in the IPO craze where I turned 2k into 30k in a few of months. I had a few online accounts and was gettin distributed 100-300 shares of most of the ipos. I saw the dreamworld where I'd pay $12 a share and the thing would open trading at $90. Luckily I was one of the few that would sell at these prices. Then I proceeded to watch the market fall and put these companies out of business or under $1 a share. (Ebay being the only exception). So I'm not exactly new to the market. Just fairly new to having money in it again.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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The last time I was in it was back in the IPO craze where I turned 2k into 30k in a few of months. I had a few online accounts and was gettin distributed 100-300 shares of most of the ipos.

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That's interesting...

1) As a small-time investor ($30K) you were able to get IPO shares? In today's climate, where IPOs were not nearly as hot, you often need 50K to get in on uninteresting IPOs, and 100K or more to get in on better.

2) If you flipped your IPO shares, then you are much less likely to get future IPO shares...

3) In short, yes, I'm calling BS.

But, whatever, it's your money. Go and mortgage the house, and make a killing. Go for the gold. Good luck.

-RMJ

Re: Going for the gold
 

Yes you are right about how IPO's usually work, but it's not how they worked back in the IPO craze. The online trading companies were trying to get more of a customer base, so they were handing out shares on a first come first serve basis when they posted the IPO was available. This was like an incentive program to get customers. It didn't matter how much money you had.. just needed enough to buy 100 shares. Each account was restricted to 100 shares. So I signed up 2 accounts on Etrade and 2 accounts on Wit Capital. This way I could get up to 400 shares. Just used my Dads name on the 2nd account. They did say that if you flipped your shares you were less likely to get future shares but they didn't seem to apply it. I was young then, still in highschool so I didn't capitalize on it like I should have. I knew of guys that had 10+ accounts and were making BIG money gettin 1,000 shares of Ipo's. So the story is not BS I can assure you that.

Re: Going for the gold
 

Just a note on top of my previous message. The Ipo's would be posted sometime between 4 and 6pm.. if there was even one at all. You would literally have to sit on the ipo page and click refresh every 10 seconds to see if it was updated with the posting to assure you were one of the first ones in. There were so many people doing this there were a few times if you waited 20 seconds too long you wouldn't get any shares because they were already spoken for.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I don't know of many people who make 100k a year playin cards, but those that do are probably puttin in a ton of hours. Poker becomes there life, and unless they win a big tourny, 100k will be the max they will average.

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Do you play online or live? Successful online poker players make $150+ an hour. They could make $100k a year playing less than 20 hours a week.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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Do you play online or live? Successful online poker players make $150+ an hour. They could make $100k a year playing less than 20 hours a week.

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$150/hour eh? I play online and can't think of many games someone could average $150/hour at. There's some higher stakes holdem, 100-200 limit and some 10/20 nl 25/50nl.. but there seem to be very few players playin the higher games.. usually only 5 at the most which most of them are most likely pros so the make has to be figured less since there not playin fish. The majority of players seem to play 15/30 through 30/60 and I just don't find it possible to make 150/hour playing those games. So what games are the "successful" online players playin to make $150/hour?

Re: Going for the gold
 

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The majority of players seem to play 15/30 through 30/60 and I just don't find it possible to make 150/hour playing those games. So what games are the "successful" online players playin to make $150/hour?

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They play 15/30 and 30/60, but they play many tables at once.

Re: Going for the gold
 

I make my $2500 a month playin 3 tables of 15/30 at a time. There is still no way to average $150/hour. The books say you should make 1BB/hour playin casino poker. This is true. Now what most people do, is figure.. well, you only get 30 hands/hour in casino so I can multiply that by the 100 hands im getting online. You can't make as many BB's per/hand online because other players are doing the same thing, playin mutliple tables, and if there not, they are playing much tighter then they play at a casino because they get to see many more hands. Therefore your competetion is in general much better. Then when you add in your playing 3 tables, you have less reads on people then you would in a casino so you either going to pay off more losing bets and laydown more losing hands then you would in a casino. So your BB/hand goes down even farther. I think making $50/hour playing 3 tables 15/30 is about as high as anyone could average. The 30/60 games are much much tighter and anyone that plays those has a horrible game selection. Half the times, the good 15/30 games have higher avg. pots then the 30/60 games.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I make my $2500 a month playin 3 tables of 15/30 at a time. There is still no way to average $150/hour. The books say you should make 1BB/hour playin casino poker. This is true. Now what most people do, is figure.. well, you only get 30 hands/hour in casino so I can multiply that by the 100 hands im getting online. You can't make as many BB's per/hand online because other players are doing the same thing, playin mutliple tables, and if there not, they are playing much tighter then they play at a casino because they get to see many more hands. Therefore your competetion is in general much better. Then when you add in your playing 3 tables, you have less reads on people then you would in a casino so you either going to pay off more losing bets and laydown more losing hands then you would in a casino. So your BB/hand goes down even farther. I think making $50/hour playing 3 tables 15/30 is about as high as anyone could average. The 30/60 games are much much tighter and anyone that plays those has a horrible game selection. Half the times, the good 15/30 games have higher avg. pots then the 30/60 games.

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I'm not going to waste any more time arguing this point with you. You make numerous bad assumptions. First of all, playing 3 tables online you should get closer to 200 hands an hour than 100. There are many 15/30 mulitablers who average 2bb/100 hands playing 4-6 tables. So at 4 tables that is about $150 an hour. You can search the other forums on here and find about 10000 posts which back up the points I'm making here.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't get involved in trading, but I definitely think you need a reality check. Your poker career has probably not been as successful as you think, and the fact that you know so little about the kind of results good poker players are getting makes me think you aren't the kind of person who really does their homework.

Re: Going for the gold
 

Why doesn't everybody just do this then?

You don't have an information edge on anybody, and I'd be willing to bet you aren't smarter than anyone else, either. Given that you're copmletely average in everything except your delusions, I don't see how you expect to do better than the average daytrader... which is broke.

Re: Going for the gold
 

Your completely wacked to think someone can make 2BB/100hands playin 4 to 6 tables!!! YOU ARE PLAYING MAINLY ONLY YOUR OWN CARDS AT THIS POINT! If this were true anybody with a solid limit holdem game would be making 500k+ a year because if you can make $150+/hour you don't play just 20 hours a week, you play 80+ hours a week. I like how all your responses reply.. I've seen tons of posts saying they can do it(people lie.. don't believe everything).. I'd like to see some hand histories over the course of 1 year and load them into poker tracker for some proof... GURANTEED NO ONE CAN SUPPLY THEM!!!!!!

Re: Going for the gold
 

I asked myself the same question about why I think I can daytrade better then the others. I really think my experience in poker is what sets me apart. I'm sure there are some day traders that are poker players. There hasn't been an explosion in daytrading like there has in poker. So I would assume most daytraders were trading before the poker explosion, therefore meaning they were trading before they ever played poker. Therefore meaning they had no poker skillz to apply to trading. Poker teaches disciplin and a tight aggressive style. I believe that is exactly what is needed to do well in trading. Psycology is also a big part, you need to figure how people will react to certain news releases, and decipher them. For example:

One release I read was on a penny stock where the ceo claimed he was going to purchase up to 4 million shares on the open market. He said he would do it under certain conditions such as price of the shares and market conditions. Well the stock rose sharply the day he announced this. I thought to myself.... the ceo is pulling the ole act strong when weak move. Obviously if a guy wanted to buy 4 million shares at the cheapest price possible, he wouldn't announce he was going to buy them, he would just do it! SO I knew the article was a bluff and didn't buy in and sure enough the stock has been on a consistent fall and not one purchase has been made by the ceo.

I have a ways to go on deciphering news releases becuase many are pretty much the same but with different companies, so once I've seen em all I'm sure there will be a pattern on hoiw the companies react to the news. But the bottom line is I think the tight aggressive/ no-tilt is what gives a successful poker player and edge over a daytrader without poker experienece.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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Your completely wacked to think someone can make 2BB/100hands playin 4 to 6 tables!!! YOU ARE PLAYING MAINLY ONLY YOUR OWN CARDS AT THIS POINT! If this were true anybody with a solid limit holdem game would be making 500k+ a year because if you can make $150+/hour you don't play just 20 hours a week, you play 80+ hours a week. I like how all your responses reply.. I've seen tons of posts saying they can do it(people lie.. don't believe everything).. I'd like to see some hand histories over the course of 1 year and load them into poker tracker for some proof... GURANTEED NO ONE CAN SUPPLY THEM!!!!!!

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Guaranteed no one WILL supply them. Not because they don't have them, but because such a large database is worth a lot of money.

And for your $2500 a month. That's pretty sad, I make that much doing bonuses and playing $1/$2 and $2/$4 part time.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I asked myself the same question about why I think I can daytrade better then the others. I really think my experience in poker is what sets me apart. I'm sure there are some day traders that are poker players. There hasn't been an explosion in daytrading like there has in poker. So I would assume most daytraders were trading before the poker explosion, therefore meaning they were trading before they ever played poker. Therefore meaning they had no poker skillz to apply to trading.

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So, by that logic, you are going to absolutely suck at day trading. After all, you were a poker player before you traded, so you have no skills at day trading and all you can apply to trading are poker "skillz (sic)!" And saying that there hasn't been a day-trading explosion comparable to poker is ridiculous.
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Crackpot armchair-psychologist example

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Take a step back from this example and think of the event from a wider perspective. In what circumstances is it correct for a company to buy back shares? For that to be a good investment, two conditions must BOTH be met: it has to be a profitable investment, and there must be no better investments available to make.

The only reason for an investor to buy a particular stock is their belief that it will outperform the appropriate index (sort of; I know that's a very basic, deliberately simplified statement). When a company buys back its own stock, it is essentially giving up. It is saying, "We cannot invest this money in any venture which would add more value than the market expects of us at this time." Therefore, they return that capital to shareholders, so that they may reinvest it to gain at least average market returns.

Seen from this view, a company buying back shares is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they are all but admitting that they cannot beat market expectations and therefore increase share price. On the other hand, they are returning capital to shareholders, which is better than sinking that cash into ventures that return less than the index or actually destroy value.

Given this information, the changes in price in your example are not surprising, nor is an understanding of poker bluffs and reads in any way necessary or helpful to understanding them. Guess what? Thousands of investors, if they could be troubled, would analyze that situation much better than you, so I still fail to see how you expect to gain an edge on the market.

Re: Going for the gold
 

I would say, ipso facto, anyone with the handle "wickedgoodtrader" is going to have a zero balance in his Ameritrade account sometime in the next 12 months. Neither poker nor the equities market is easy. And anyone, who at anytime, begins to think that either is, is about to lose all his or her money.

But maybe it's only a 98% probability event.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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Successful online poker players make $150+ an hour. They could make $100k a year playing less than 20 hours a week.

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you're talking about the top .01% of all online players right?

I'm being incredibly generous with that figure estimate.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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Your completely wacked to think someone can make 2BB/100hands playin 4 to 6 tables!!! YOU ARE PLAYING MAINLY ONLY YOUR OWN CARDS AT THIS POINT! If this were true anybody with a solid limit holdem game would be making 500k+ a year because if you can make $150+/hour you don't play just 20 hours a week, you play 80+ hours a week. I like how all your responses reply.. I've seen tons of posts saying they can do it(people lie.. don't believe everything).. I'd like to see some hand histories over the course of 1 year and load them into poker tracker for some proof... GURANTEED NO ONE CAN SUPPLY THEM!!!!!!

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Guaranteed no one WILL supply them. Not because they don't have them, but because such a large database is worth a lot of money.

And for your $2500 a month. That's pretty sad, I make that much doing bonuses and playing $1/$2 and $2/$4 part time.

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part time: 4 hrs/day = 80 hrs/month (a generous estimate)

let's say $500 is bonuses. (2500-500)/80 = $25/hr = 6.25BB/hr @ 2/4 or 13.5BB/hr @ 1/2.

This whole thread reeks of exaggeration
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I have a pro friend who is one of the top players at party. He pulls in 2-4 $K/ week on average. $100k/year is pretty easy for him... but $150/hr longrun is asking too much.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I have a pro friend who is one of the top players at party. He pulls in 2-4 $K/ week on average. $100k/year is pretty easy for him... but $150/hr longrun is asking too much.

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Your friend is simply not one of the top players on party. Not even close.

Re: Going for the gold
 

NH, but you are way behind. Just fold.

Re: Going for the gold
 

I'm glad to see I get such a great reception here. I'm basically the only one on this forum who works professionally as a trader. I'm also pretty much the only one who plays poker at higher stakes. Every time I post something people call me a liar. Good luck, you guys are going to need it.

Re: Going for the gold
 

There's been several threads in mid-high that will tell you you're wrong and Paluka is correct.

Reading is fun!!

Re: Going for the gold
 

A lot more than $500 will come from bonuses and rakeback.

But let's say you're right.
4-tabling, ~60 hands/table/hour means 240 hands/hr.
$13.5/hr = 6.75 BB/hr.
(6.75/240)*100 = 2.81 BB/100

So now he's playing strictly 1/2 and only getting $500 in free money, and needs a 2.81BB/100 rate to make $2500 in a month. That's nowhere near unbelievable.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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There's been several threads in mid-high that will tell you you're wrong and Paluka is correct.

Reading is fun!!

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HEY I MAKE $500/HOUR PLATING CARDS!! Now that it is a thread, you believe it?

Re: Going for the gold
 

"So what else would a wall street trader have on top of me?"

Not having to worry about lawnmower repair?

Re: Going for the gold
 

Cool. Do you have a blog site or something? Or maybe you could just post daily or weekly updates here? I think it would be really helpful to a lot of aspiring traders like me to hear about your thought process and investing strategies - and some OTC stock tips would be greatly appreciated! I read a lot of stock trading forums, but most of the guys on them fall victim to the hype and I end up losing a lot of money when I go with their picks. I wouldn't be surprised if you could get people to pay up to $1000/mo just to see your picks after a while. Also, if you keep playing poker as well, it would be great to hear your thoughts on the game. Since you're already crushing the 15/30 for $50/hr, do you have plans to move to the higher stakes games soon?

Re: Going for the gold
 

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Also, if you keep playing poker as well, it would be great to hear your thoughts on the game. Since you're already crushing the 15/30

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I don't have any problems with people taking investment advice from this guy, since it's obvious he knows all there is to know about being a successful daytrader.

But a word of warning to Diablo and others. Don't let him know your Party screen-names. It puts you at risk, he could start showing up in your games and making things real tough for you. Sure, he may help you out from time to time with a tip here or there, but you're retarted if you think he's going to tell you everything he knows. He'll always know more than you and will never tell you his best moves. My advice is don't go swimming with the big sharks if you can avoid it.

Re: Going for the gold
 

I never said I was making $50/hour playing 15/30.. I was saying that was the max I think anyone could make. I'm more around the $30/hour range.

Re: Going for the gold
 

Also, about the OTC stock tips. I would love to share, and will try, but sometimes it is very difficult. I always use them as very short term investments... a day at the most. They tend to make their moves very quick if they are goign to at all.. in a matter of an hour or two. I get in the stock.. I have to keep my eye on it constantly.. therefore not really giving me the chance to make a post. Plus if it is a hype stock I get out really quick, so i wouldn't want to post on here the second I buy.. realize it's hyped, then leave you hangin and buyin in when I might have already sold. I'll see what I can do.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I never said I was making $50/hour playing 15/30.. I was saying that was the max I think anyone could make. I'm more around the $30/hour range.

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For 3 tables? Wow. You should really move up to the 5/10 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: Going for the gold
 

I don't lie about my stats.. $30/hour is solid.. I'm talkin over 100,000+ hands.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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I never said I was making $50/hour playing 15/30.. I was saying that was the max I think anyone could make. I'm more around the $30/hour range.

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Oh, OK. Yeah, you can probably do a little better than $30/hr. Still, it would be really interesting to read a blog or something from someone like you who has shown the ability to win at this kind of rate consistently, unlike most of the posters here who have good stats over some very short period.

Re: Going for the gold
 

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Also, about the OTC stock tips. I would love to share, and will try, but sometimes it is very difficult. I always use them as very short term investments... a day at the most. They tend to make their moves very quick if they are goign to at all.. in a matter of an hour or two. I get in the stock.. I have to keep my eye on it constantly.. therefore not really giving me the chance to make a post. Plus if it is a hype stock I get out really quick, so i wouldn't want to post on here the second I buy.. realize it's hyped, then leave you hangin and buyin in when I might have already sold. I'll see what I can do.

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Thanks for the great post. This is exactly the type of knowledge I think would be incredibly valuable in a blog or newsletter or something. A lot of times I buy OTC stocks from these boards but it is way too late and I just end up losing money. Maybe you can just post a blog or updates here with your general strategies and thoughts and we can ask you followup questions? As for the specific stock tips, maybe you can just email them or IM them or something to the people who pay for your newsletter? That would be a really good strategy, I think. Create a blog which describes how you figure out what you're going to do that everyone can read for free and then make people pay to get sent your stock tips (or maybe just post a couple of them a week and those who pay get the rest of them).

It would be fun to have a catchy name for your blog or newsletter. Like "wickedgoodtrader's web" or something like that. Do like a spider theme, maybe...