Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Hi all...my first post, so hope I get all the relevant info in. I've been playing the $3, $5, and $10 NL tourneys at Pokerstars and seem to just dwindle away about half way through. After reading these forums, I've been trying to play very tight until the blinds reach 25/50 or 50/100 and then start stealing and loosen up a little. Seems like the last several tournies I've gotten decent hands, gotten all my chips in, and then lost. I guess I'm trying to figure out how often do winning players actually put all their chips at risk in a tournament with 1000 to 2000 people? Only when they have the nuts? What's more important: pushing advantages or protecting chips.

Here's an example. This is from memory, but we're about 45 minutes in and the blinds are 50/100. I've recently been moved to this table but it doesn't seem an overly aggressive table. I have about 2200 in chips, about average. There are three limpers and I'm just off the button with J8 suited and I limp. I know I probably shouldn't even play this, but I decided to see the flop. The SB folds, and the BB checks. The flop is QJ8 rainbow. Checks around to the guy on my right (about 3500 in chips) who bets 300 into a 550 pot. I raise to 900, all fold, but the original bettor who goes all in. I call and he flips AQ. An Ace comes on the turn and I'm done.

Questions:

I know QJ and T9 are both distinct possibilities here. Should I be protecting my chips and try to see a cheap show down (or even fold), or should I be pushing two pair?

Go ahead and let me have it, I know I probably played this hand awful...but this brings up another question. If you knew 100% that you would have Jacks and eights against TPTK, would you put all your chips at risk this early?

Thanks much,
Jeff

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Granted, I wouldn't play that starting hand but I wouldn't say that hand was as you say "the reason you suck at Tourneys". You played that hand great. You made a "read" that you had the "best" hand and managed to get all the money in as a substantal favorite.

That's a formula for success, I would say. You just got sucked out on is all.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

You had a 72% edge. Even Phil Hellmuth couldnt pass this up.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

I am no expert, but can't see how you get away from this hand. I posted a similar hand awhile back (though I was on the BB). I'd agree that playing this hand was likely the only quesitonable move, and your post flop play looks good to me.

If you are losing in tournies, maybe you are loosing up too early.

P

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Bad decision to see the flop with this hand.
That was the only bad decision you made on that hand though.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

one key thing to keep in mind about playing mtt's with several hundred or even thousands of people is that to get to the good money you're typically going to need to get to the final table or very close to it. being so, you're going to need to stay alive for 6-8 hours or longer.

one way i look at the big mtts is simply this: avoid having bad luck by avoiding the bad beats and avoiding any and every mistake you might make.

now, for the hand you posted, you already know your first mistake was to call preflop with J8s. that hand is junk and it should be an autofold unless you have some grand plan to bluff it or some other very advanced scheme in the works. the reason why you fold that hand and a ton of other hands like it is exactly the reason that you should have folded it here: you hit the flop fairly hard with two pair and you blew all your chips on it. tournament over.

when you are dealt a hand like J8s or even KJs think of that hand as a hand that is setting you up for disaster. you want to play hands that IF you hit the flop hard, you're going to be in great shape.

your last question is an interesting one: if i had J8 and the board came QJ8 and i KNEW FOR A FACT that the other player had AQ, would i put all my chips in there? the answer to this, for me at least, depends on a lot of details such as how many players are left, whether i think the other player would make this raise without a set or 2 higher pair, what the buy in is, how my stack is in relation to the avg and how i feel my skill level compares to the other players. If i had an avg stack and we were about 1/2 way thru the tourney and the buy-in was low (i.e. under 50$), id go ahead and call with J8 and take my shot as a 72% favorite. these being roughly the circumstances you were in, i dont think necessarily your call of the all-in was bad, but like i said, you shouldnt have been involved in the hand.

hope that helps a little and welcome to the forum.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

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Should I be protecting my chips and try to see a cheap show down (or even fold), or should I be pushing two pair?

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If you're going to bother flopping two pair here, you've got to play it VERY fast. The way you played it is just fine...AQ got lucky. It happens.

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If you knew 100% that you would have Jacks and eights against TPTK, would you put all your chips at risk this early?


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Yes.



Stack size and implied odds are very important in the early stages of these low buyin tournaments. Limping with J8s in LP is a decent play, as long as the variables are right; how big are your opponent's stacks? Are they paying off? Is the table playing tight, or loose and wild? You have to respond to the table.

You should be playing very tight well into the 50 and 100 levels...only open up your game when the antes kick in. The pot isn't worth stealing without the antes.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm trying to figure out how often do winning players actually put all their chips at risk in a tournament with 1000 to 2000 people? Only when they have the nuts? What's more important: pushing advantages or protecting chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are winning players on both sides of the spectrum.
I'm partial to playing more conservatively, but you could make a strong case for either strategy early in tournaments.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

I don't think you'll find too many players that will push TPTK early, so I would fold to the all in. Typically I lose to the top 2 pr here, or the set if I call here.

If he does push with TPTK then it's doubtful he'll get into the money anyway. Just wait for a better opp.

Good luck.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

1. As others have already emphasized, folding this pre-flop is the best option. From my experiecne, these type of hands get into more trouble that they pay off. I especially wouldn't do this with a stack of only 2200 -- I would want to be well above average before I start playing these type of hands.

2. You say:
[ QUOTE ]
I know QJ and T9 are both distinct possibilities here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Its helpful to fully analyze the hand to understand all of the possibilities here.

What are the possible starting hands he would push with on the flop?
You are behind these starting hands:
QQ, JJ, QJ, T9, Q8, 88.
QQ and JJ (and maybe 88) are unlikely, because these hands would have been raised PF. So that leaves 4 possible limping hands (including 88) that you are already behind.

Other possible starting hands that he might push with, because the flop hit him (or came close) and he has additional outs (with # outs, and approximate % chance of hitting on turn or river):
AQ (5 outs, 20%), KQ (5 outs, 20%), QT (9 outs, 35%), Q9 (9 outs, 35%), KT (8 outs, 32%).

I would also include TT and 99 as possible starting hands that he might limp with (although TT, and maybe even 99, is probably a raise PF) and push on the basis that you are on a draw, and each have 6 outs to beat you.

So, that's 4 hands that your are behind, and 7 hands that you are ahead but he has outs.

As played, when he goes all in, the pot is 2650 and you have only 900 left. This is, without a doubt, a call because you are getting 3 to 1 on your money with 2 pair.

However, there is another way to play this that might have won the pot for you:

3. Instead of raising to 900 after his 300 bet, why not just go all in? With his 300 bet on the flop, the pot is 850. You have only 900 left after your raise to 900, and you are clearly committed at 3:1 if he goes all in after your 900 bet. An all-in bet by you for 1800 after his 300 bet on the flop, rather than just a raise to 900, would still give you some folding equity, since he will have to pay 1800 more to win the 2650 pot -- he's only getting 1.5 to 1 on his money. In addition, an all-in bet signals that your hand is ahead of his (which it was) because you're willing to risk your tournament life on that flop. This is how you can "play it faster" and maybe win the pot by forcing him to fold. You probably gave up any folding equity by only raising half your stack, rather than going all in (which you were bound to do anyway when he goes all in).

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

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An all-in bet by you for 1800 after his 300 bet on the flop, rather than just a raise to 900, would still give you some folding equity, since he will have to pay 1800 more to win the 2650 pot -- he's only getting 1.5 to 1 on his money. In addition, an all-in bet signals that your hand is ahead of his (which it was) because you're willing to risk your tournament life on that flop. This is how you can "play it faster" and maybe win the pot by forcing him to fold. You probably gave up any folding equity by only raising half your stack, rather than going all in (which you were bound to do anyway when he goes all in).

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If you could please, toss out some numbers to show the EV of a line that maximizes fold equity, versus the EV of the line that maximizes showdown equity.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Nah, I'll just do it myself:

You check-raise all-in, TPTK-stack-boy folds 75% of the time:
.75*850 + .25*.72*2650 - .25*.28*2100 = +968 EV

You check-raise weakly inducing him to come over the top, eliminating your fold equity:
.0*850 + 1.0*.72*2650 - 1.0*.28*2100 = +1320 EV

Do you feel its worth giving up about 350 chips to bust 7% of the time instead of 28% of the time?

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

[ QUOTE ]
your last question is an interesting one: if i had J8 and the board came QJ8 and i KNEW FOR A FACT that the other player had AQ, would i put all my chips in there? the answer to this, for me at least, depends on a lot of details such as how many players are left, whether i think the other player would make this raise without a set or 2 higher pair, what the buy in is, how my stack is in relation to the avg and how i feel my skill level compares to the other players. If i had an avg stack and we were about 1/2 way thru the tourney and the buy-in was low (i.e. under 50$), id go ahead and call with J8 and take my shot as a 72% favorite. these being roughly the circumstances you were in, i dont think necessarily your call of the all-in was bad, but like i said, you shouldnt have been involved in the hand.

hope that helps a little and welcome to the forum.

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Given what you said above, under WHAT circumstances would you NOT play if you were sure that you were a 72/28 favorite??!!

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nah, I'll just do it myself:

You check-raise all-in, TPTK-stack-boy folds 75% of the time:
.75*850 + .25*.72*2650 - .25*.28*2100 = +968 EV

You check-raise weakly inducing him to come over the top, eliminating your fold equity:
.0*850 + 1.0*.72*2650 - 1.0*.28*2100 = +1320 EV

Do you feel its worth giving up about 350 chips to bust 7% of the time instead of 28% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? The poster here acts second. How can he check-raise?

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know QJ and T9 are both distinct possibilities here. Should I be protecting my chips and try to see a cheap show down (or even fold), or should I be pushing two pair?

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If you are often 'dwindling' away as you say, in the middle of tourneys, it sounds like you are protecting your chips too much, if you know what I mean.

[ QUOTE ]

Go ahead and let me have it, I know I probably played this hand awful...but this brings up another question. If you knew 100% that you would have Jacks and eights against TPTK, would you put all your chips at risk this early?


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Two pair is a big favorite in that spot. If the other guy showed you top pair top kicker, it would be a massive, absolute catastrophe to fold.

In a large multi tournament, you cannot 'protect' your way to the final table. You need to accumulate chips and bulid up a stack. The fact that you ask this, it is easy to see why you are blinding out in the middle of tourneys. Must get the chips in when you have an edge.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Hey Homebrew, I haven't read any of the other responses to your post but heres my opinion. It is unlikely that you are against 9-10 as the better would probably smooth call your reraise in hopes of slow playing and making more chips off of you. If you are against QJ, thats just unlucky and you are going to lose all of your chips here. J 8 suited is a weak hand and this is a prime example of why most good players choose not to play it. You want to avoid these tough decisions as much as you as can. Without a pretty solid read on my opponent, I'm not laying this down here, so I think that your post flop play is fine.

And in answer to your other question: YES! always yes here. Tournaments are all about accumulating chips, and you have to take advantage of these situations as much as possible. You're well ahead of TPTK, and if have a definite read that this is what your opponent has, you should always get your money in the middle.

One possible argument for you not risking all your chips against TPTK is in a satellite, and you are one person away from making it in and you have a healthy stack. In which case, why are you in situation anyways!

Cheers Pat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Thanks for all the replies. This site is awesome. Anyway, I guess I feel a little better about the play...it's good to get some feedback. I do see some advantages to just moving all in rather than the raising to 900. During the actual hand, I really wasn't too worried about the original bettor...I figured I was ahead of him. When I threw in almost half my stack for a raise, I kept thinking that T9 would probably have checked his straight from early position (I know sometimes people limp with QQ or JJ, but with no raise, I discounted these hands). If an early position player moves all in after my raise, do you lay it down?

I have another question about the hand. Let's assume that the original bettor will lay down his hand if I move all in. What's the preferable play in a long MTT like this? Try to get a lot of money in the pot (i.e. double up) with 28% chance of being eliminated, or win the 800 or so with 0% risk of being eliminated. Even if he calls the all in 10% of the time, maybe I should have just moved in. The only bad thing about moving in rather than raising is that I have no chance to get away if an early player checked a monster. I'm not sure I could have laid it down anyway...I probably should, just not sure I could!

Thanks,
Jeff

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your last question is an interesting one: if i had J8 and the board came QJ8 and i KNEW FOR A FACT that the other player had AQ, would i put all my chips in there? the answer to this, for me at least, depends on a lot of details such as how many players are left, whether i think the other player would make this raise without a set or 2 higher pair, what the buy in is, how my stack is in relation to the avg and how i feel my skill level compares to the other players. If i had an avg stack and we were about 1/2 way thru the tourney and the buy-in was low (i.e. under 50$), id go ahead and call with J8 and take my shot as a 72% favorite. these being roughly the circumstances you were in, i dont think necessarily your call of the all-in was bad, but like i said, you shouldnt have been involved in the hand.

hope that helps a little and welcome to the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given what you said above, under WHAT circumstances would you NOT play if you were sure that you were a 72/28 favorite??!!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my first thought as well reading this post.

Re: Is this hand indicitive of why I\'m terrible at tournaments?
 

Well played. The limp was marginal, but not awful as long as you think it is quite unlikely that the 3 remaining players to act will take a shot at all those chips in the pot. Getting your chips in on the flop when you flop 2 pair is great. You got in as a favorite and lost. Keep doing it.

PS you owe me a dollar.