AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This hand came up today, thought it was pretty interesting, and I'm unsure as to how to play it. I think it may relate to HEFAP p.170 for those interested.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero...


Essentially, by betting here, any K/J is going to call, and is getting odds to do so. Is the proper play here to check the flop, and then bet/raise the turn, providing no K/J falls?

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

You have to bet. Yes, any K/J has odds to continue, but by not betting, you are giving these hands infinite odds.

EDIT: Even if the straight it completed, you still have 4 outs to a boat. Bet, bet, bet. Charge the draws.

EDIT EDIT: This is covered very well in ToP; if you haven't read it, I suggest you do so right away. A few chapters will blow your mind.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

Bet. Why would you want to wait? So what if any K or J will call here. So will any Ax, Qx, Tx, etc.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
Essentially, by betting here, any K/J is going to call, and is getting odds to do so. Is the proper play here to check the flop, and then bet/raise the turn, providing no K/J falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

They have odds to call, but by giving them a free card you give them infinite odds. Bet. Charge the draws. Just because they are correct to call does not mean that you are incorrect to bet. You have the best hand. Bet for value. Look at it this way, any K/J has 4 outs, but you have the LEAD with top 2 pair, PLUS 4 outs to fill up. BetBetBet.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Why would you want to wait? So what if any K or J will call here. So will any Ax, Qx, Tx, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

The consensus seems to be to bet the flop. Could anyone with a copy of HEFAP on them tell me what the fundamental difference between this situation and the one on p.170 is? Is it that the pot size in this situation isn't large enough, or that non-drawing dominated hands will still be calling, or something else altogether?

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

I have no idea what the book says but in this case a big reason I believe not to wait is

[ QUOTE ]
that non-drawing dominated hands will still be calling

[/ QUOTE ]

what you just said.

Post the example from the book if you have time.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
This hand came up today, thought it was pretty interesting, and I'm unsure as to how to play it. I think it may relate to HEFAP p.170 for those interested.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero...


Essentially, by betting here, any K/J is going to call, and is getting odds to do so. Is the proper play here to check the flop, and then bet/raise the turn, providing no K/J falls?

[/ QUOTE ]


I ended up checking the flop, and my reasoning was as follows:

Assume a set of separate situations
1) If button bets, J/K will call, and I will get a chance to double/triple bet them
2) If button checks and next card is J/K, I save myself a SB
3) If button checks and next card is not J/K, I have shown weakness on the flop, and will most likely be bet into. Now that I have been bet into, I can raise to knock out J/K drawers.

Is my logic flawed here? Or is it just that betting the flop yields greater benefits than those I have listed for checking the flop?

EDIT: I've read TOP/HEFAP, and I am well aware of the principle of making drawing hands pay. What I am asking essentially, is whether this situation is different that normal ones, due to the number of opponents and size of the pot, as per HEFAP p.171.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

I think that example from HFAP may be for situations when you may already be ebhind, but I'm not sure.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post the example from the book if you have time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the example from p.171 of HEFAP (sorry, was 171, not 170):

You have AA on the button, many players are in, and the pot is very large. The flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and it is checked to you.

"The play is to also check! Then when someone bets on fourth street you raise -- unless a ten or a nine comes off. Again, if someone is going to draw out on you on thet urn you can't prevent it anyway. By playing your hand this way you'll be able to stop him from drawing out on you on the end."

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]

Assume a set of separate situations
1) If button bets, J/K will call, and I will get a chance to double/triple bet them
2) If button checks and next card is J/K, I save myself a SB
3) If button checks and next card is not J/K, I have shown weakness on the flop, and will most likely be bet into. Now that I have been bet into, I can raise to knock out J/K drawers.

Is my logic flawed here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is. Terribly so, IMO. If you think the button will bet, won't he perhaps raise? Then you DEFINITELY should bet to cut down the odds of the field when button raises. Hoping he will bet so you can 3-bet is foolish. Anyone with a gutshot will still have odds to call. This is NOT a hand you want to trap people into the pot with, because like you said yourself, anyone with a K or J has odds to call. Trap people when you have MONSTERS. On this board, your hand is not a monster.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

There is absolutely no reason to not bet this flop.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Post the example from the book if you have time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the example from p.171 of HEFAP (sorry, was 171, not 170):

You have AA on the button, many players are in, and the pot is very large. The flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and it is checked to you.

"The play is to also check! Then when someone bets on fourth street you raise -- unless a ten or a nine comes off. Again, if someone is going to draw out on you on thet urn you can't prevent it anyway. By playing your hand this way you'll be able to stop him from drawing out on you on the end."

[/ QUOTE ]

Sadly (for me), I don't agree with the play here either, and also cannot point out the distinction between this and your situation. So, I can certainly understand your confusion (as I am now confused, too, if this is truly the best way to play it).

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Assume a set of separate situations
1) If button bets, J/K will call, and I will get a chance to double/triple bet them
2) If button checks and next card is J/K, I save myself a SB
3) If button checks and next card is not J/K, I have shown weakness on the flop, and will most likely be bet into. Now that I have been bet into, I can raise to knock out J/K drawers.

Is my logic flawed here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is. Terribly so, IMO. If you think the button will bet, won't he perhaps raise? Then you DEFINITELY should bet to cut down the odds of the field when button raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't "think" that any of these scenarios is more likely than the other, I am just listing the possible situations if I check, and the benefits of checking under each of those scenarios. With a fairly normal 3/6 player, I don't think it is a safe assumption to say that any time the button bets, he would have raised my bet.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

An overpair is quite a bit different than top pair and very different than top two pair. You don't dominate many hands, you have fewer outs to improve, and you're more worried about protecting with the AA example. I'm more worried about collecting bets in your hand.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

mannika:

FPS.

You are way overthinking things here. You have top two fricking pair in a large pot. Bet....FOR VALUE!!! I am all for looking for ways to protect you hand, but sometimes, you just can't.

--Rico

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

If it is raised in front of you, just call. If checked to you bet. Its a coordinated board so raising will not protect your hand. If its a safe card on the turn, drop the check raise like no tomorrow.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

The example listed above from the book assumes someone is capable of folding a gut draw for 2 cold on the turn. We are not dealing with that breed of fish here. I won't even mention that the turn bet has to come exactly from your left, otherwise it will fail too. So um you bet the flop, because you are ahead and because you got position. The amount of times you will beat out a K/J should convince you to bet.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
If it is raised in front of you, just call . If checked to you bet. Its a coordinated board so raising will not protect your hand. If its a safe card on the turn, drop the check raise like no tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Hero has a chance to make it 7.5:1 (i.e., unprofitable) for any gutshot draws acting behind his raise. If someone bets this flop ahead of Hero, he should thank his lucky stars and raise like no tomorrow.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This seems like as good as any topic for a first post...

I believe that this example is similar to the HEFAP example in the following manner.

By betting the flop, the potential gut-shot player is getting proper odds to make the call. By waiting for the turn, your bet or raise will be large enough to not provide proper odds for a gut-shot draw.

With that being said, I think this hand is different from the HEFAP example in that you still have 4 outs to improve and the HEFAP example only has two. Additionally, I think that there are many other hands that you have dominated that would call a flop bet.

I would bet the flop in this situation.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

And again, it is equally as likely that Hero will fill up to a boat (4 outs) as it is anyone with a K or J will catch their gutshot (yes, if both a K and J are out, then combined, there would be 8 outs against him).

Not betting the flop is bad, bad.

This thread is starting to drive me nuts.........
 

There are only 2 reasons not to bet the flop here: #1 you have been shown AA, KJ, QQ or TT by another player, #2 you hate money.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Post the example from the book if you have time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the example from p.171 of HEFAP (sorry, was 171, not 170):

You have AA on the button, many players are in, and the pot is very large. The flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and it is checked to you.

"The play is to also check! Then when someone bets on fourth street you raise -- unless a ten or a nine comes off. Again, if someone is going to draw out on you on thet urn you can't prevent it anyway. By playing your hand this way you'll be able to stop him from drawing out on you on the end."

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest difference is that in the HPFAP hand, you only have 1 pair. If your opponent hits his straight on the turn, you have no redraws and you lose, so your flop bet is wasted. Plus HPFAP also usually assumes your opponents are rational and won't call here with crap hands like A4 or 55, so you only get calls from people who are correct to call.

In your hand, you have top 2 pair. If the straight comes on the turn you still have 4 outs to win on the river, so your flop bet isn't wasted regardless of what comes on the turn. You'll also get calls from A4, Q9, and 55 here on the flop.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

<font color="red">BET </font>


It's more likely than not that neither a K or J will show up on the turn or river. Therefore, BET when you almost assuredly have the best hand, and it will probably remain that way. Making money is fun.


Board: Ah Qc Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.6716 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AsQs }
Hand 2: 11.4028 % [ 00.11 00.00 ] { K9o }
Hand 3: 04.6925 % [ 00.04 00.00 ] { A3s }
Hand 4: 02.7165 % [ 00.03 00.00 ] { 75s }
Hand 5: 22.3768 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { JTo }
Hand 6: 04.1398 % [ 00.04 00.00 ] { 33 }

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This is just bad advice for today's LL games. Buy SSH, and make that your Bible.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">BET </font>



[/ QUOTE ]

At what point do you not bet in fear of giving people proper odds to call a gut on the turn?

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">BET </font>



[/ QUOTE ]

At what point do you not bet in fear of giving people proper odds to call a gut on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say when the pot is smaller and your hand cannot improve to the best hand. That said, betting when you have the best hand is rarely a mistake. (I know, I know, if you flop quads blahblahblah)

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
You'll also get calls from A4, Q9, and 55 here on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, by far, the most compelling reason to bet, bet, bet the damn flop.

Oh, that and you almost certainly have the best hand right now and you MUST bet to protect it. As others have mentioned, lone K's and J's will be correct to call, but you would be infinitely more incorrect to let this check through. There's likely at least one K and one J out there, so you're most likely trying to dodge something like 6 cards. Even if the straight card comes on the turn, you have a redraw to a full house.

BET, dammit!

Tom

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

Thanks for all the input, good to see that this hand generated some quality responses for the most part.

Based on what has been said so far, I've concluded that the play dictated by Sklansky on p.171 on HEFAP is only useful in very distinct circumstances, and that it is rare enough for these circumstances to occur to bother. Also, it seems as if this might have been a good play against quality opponents who would fold a double bet with a gutshot, but as someone mentioned, in small stakes, opponents are probably going to call anyways, so it is better to just get the bets in when you can.

Again, thanks for the thoughtful responses.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This is a no-brainer bet.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, it seems as if this might have been a good play against quality opponents who would fold a double bet with a gutshot,

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this is WRONG. Not betting here is so bad it defies description. Giving a free card here is an abomination. I am out of breath.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, that and you almost certainly have the best hand right now and you MUST bet to protect it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fail to see how betting protects your hand. Making them call 1SB with 12SB in the pot is NOT protecting your hand because you are not causing any of the draws to fold (with the possible exception of small PP).

If you are choosing to bet, then you are value betting, NOT betting to protect your hand. In fact, if your only goal was to protect your hand, without regard for maximizing pot size, the check would be the correct decision here. However, I think the general consensus here is that maximizing pot size is more important that protecting your hand in this situation.


Also, for those of you posting with responses like, "The bet is the obvious choice", I urge you to look into the problem a bit deeper. While at first glance this hand question seems obvious, after looking into it more in depth, I think that the decision is probably quite marginal (at small stakes I am now of the impression that the bet is a slightly better decision)

Edit: If you spend some time looking at both arguments and then choose bet, that's fine, I just would prefer if you put some analysis and examine both sides before posting something like, "Only someone with an IQ of 41 would bet here", because that really doesn't further the discussion or provide any valuable insight.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This decision is not marginal. You, and others are focusing way too much on protecting your hand against someone with a K or J. This bet is for value. You flopped top two pair against 4 opponents.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

Just as another viewpoint to look at this from (no personal attack on anyone, I'm just trying to play devil's advocate at this point), has anyone considered that you may in fact be able to get more into the pot by checking the flop?

If we assume that the K/J does not hit on the turn, the likely scenario for a bet on the flop is:

Hero bets, 2ish callers
Turn: brick
checked to Hero, Hero bets, 2ish callers.

In this situation you are getting 4.5 BB into the pot.

However, if you check, I think there is a fairly good chance that this will happen:

Hero checks, Button checks
Turn: brick
someone in MP/EP bets, hero raises, those same 2 players in the first example end up calling 2 BB.

In this situation you are getting 6BB into the pot.


Granted, it is uncertain what the difference in callers will be for the flop/turn bets, but it may in fact be the situation where checking on the flop gets MORE money into the pot, and not less.

Discuss.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

I can't believe this thread made 31 replies on clearly the easiest flop bet in the history of poker.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, that and you almost certainly have the best hand right now and you MUST bet to protect it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fail to see how betting protects your hand. Making them call 1SB with 12SB in the pot is NOT protecting your hand because you are not causing any of the draws to fold (with the possible exception of small PP).



[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're not protecting to the point of making gutshots or other draws not profitable, but you are doing the best you can do. Giving someone 11-1 odds is better than giving them infinite odds, yes?? There are many instances, not unlike this hand, where you cannot protect to the point of making someone's call unprofitable.

Theory of Poker, dude. Now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">BET </font>



[/ QUOTE ]

At what point do you not bet in fear of giving people proper odds to call a gut on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) When your hand can stand the heat that a straight would bring. It cannot here.
2) When you fear others will not call your bet if made on the flop. He's likely to get plenty of action here.

As such, this hand is not a candidate for a slowplay.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

Never. Just b/c they're getting correct odds to call, doesn't mean we're not still making money on money going into the pot, let alone the favorite to win the hand.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

How are you ever going to make money with your big hands if you don't bet them for value?

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

The main reason to bet this hand has nothing to do with protection, although you will get some if some hands fold. That's an ancillary benefit.

The reason to bet this hand is that you have a monster. You almost certainly have the best hand, and people WILL call. That means you make money. Let's say the hand were played 10,000 times from the flop on. You bet every single time, sure sometimes you'll lose that bet along with the rest of the pot, but overall, you come out way ahead, and you come out more ahead when you bet the flop and get inferior hands to call.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

Examples you see of waiting for the turn card to raise usually are when you have a questionable amount of pot equity on the flop and are waiting for a safe turn card to raise (when your equity has probably increased). That absolutely does not apply here.

Any thinking player may even fold a lone J or K knowing that a split pot would be a good possibility and also that with this board they are vulnerable to redraws. But I don't really care if they call or not here.