Hand to Talk About
 

Hi Everyone:

Here's a hand I played last night (Saturday) in an $80-$160 game at The Bellagio.

I was first one in and raised from an early position with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. A middle position player called and the big blind called.

The flop came A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The big blind checked. I bet. The middle position player folded. And the big blind called.

The turn was the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The big blind bet and I called.

The river was the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The big blind bet and I called.

All comments welcome.

Best wishes,
Mason

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Any read on the player?

I think you have to raise the river. Very few hands ahead of you, wouldn't be surprised to see a AQs or A10s.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

I want to raise the river, but I feel like by saying that I'm stepping into a trap.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

That was my intial reaction but a set may c/r the flop or turn unless they are 100% sure Mason has AK and they think he will raise so they can 3bet. Once the pot got headsup villian had better options to take I think if he just filled up his set. A c/r also charges the most for mason to draw to a higher boat. Could be 3 to 4 outs if villian has JJ or AJ or could be as many as 10 outs.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

raise the river

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

[ QUOTE ]
I want to raise the river, but I feel like by saying that I'm stepping into a trap.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my first instinct too. Guess we'll see how this pans out.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

nice hand tommy......

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

You missed a river raise. There are no more streets for him to bluff if he is. The player could be value betting a big pocket pair he smooth called with, a J, or have an ace and not put you on one since that would only leave one. Or, he could be bluffing, and I dont think you want to show your ability to just call his bluffs. You want him to bluff more if he is, and value bet(raise) if he has something he will call with. It cant be that big a mistake to raise, because sometimes you will get 3 bet and still be ahead.....

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Mason -

This looks exactly like your stop and go BB defense plan.

So what do we know about the player? I'm having a hard time not seeing a river raise, if he's a reasonable but average player I see Ace/trash, JK, JT, QJ suited or not, almost any pair. His holding seems timid so I don't want to stop him since you're now likely way ahead, but there has to be value in a river raise even though it won't be paid off most of the time.

Thx,
slavic

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Well, you apparantly won, which means raising was the right play.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Or maybe he was beaten by one of the very few hands that do beat him and hes going to bash us all for saying to river raise. Since raise the river is such an obvious response I'm sure theres a lesson hes trying to teach us all. But, I presume anyreason he thinks he may behind is from a tell or from how the player plays that he isn't telling us. Because, based solely on the cards you have to presume you are ahead.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I want to raise the river, but I feel like by saying that I'm stepping into a trap.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my first instinct too. Guess we'll see how this pans out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

[ QUOTE ]
Or maybe he was beaten by one of the very few hands that do beat him...

[/ QUOTE ]
Have you ever read one of Mason's "Hand to talk about" threads before?

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

No, I guess this is me losing my virginity and all things that are common in other posts don't apply.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

mason not raising the river is atrocious. the rest of the hand is perfect. you will get shown AQ and other worse aces (as well as Js and other pairs that wont let go for one more bet) plenty enough to make a raise on the river (and call a 3 bet) significantly +EV. it's black and white and there's no way around it barring some sort of extra special player details on the bb that might make it closer to reasonable.

the only way i can explain your mistake here is maybe you are out of touch with how loose people's river calling standards have become in today's games, even some players who seem quite reasonable, and at limits as high as 200-400. my experience says reasonably big error not raising on the river. it'll be interesting to see what snakehead says because he's the one who really knows.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

"anyreason he thinks he may behind is from a tell"

hi. welcome to the forum.

mason doesnt do "tells".

enjoy.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Mason also doesn't post hands that he loses.

Welcome to the forum.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

hi mason, as almost everybody else had stated, why no river raise?

your hand should be worth 2 bets on this river. sure, a bluff won't call, and maybe he'll fold a pair, but the pot will be big enough where he'll sometimes call a jack or QQ or whatever and he'll never ever fold an A here.

or maybe you just want to see his hand so you can have an idea of his play in later hands? sounds plausible, but like stated before, he'll call often enough anyways for you to see and even if he folds you'll know he probably had some type of pair.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Hi Mason:

Sure this is the right line against some players but there isn't a lot for us to discuss without a read.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

If the BB was going to trap you I tihnk he would have gone for a Checkraise, that being said, not too many hands beat yours, I would have raised the river.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Mason,

I have to say I agree with mike l. here. The concern is primarily with him paying you off when you have a better hand, no? I can see him paying off with the vast majority of worse hands, so I definitely see a river raise here.

Rob

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

I think if BB has any more than trips he c/r our hero. Hero raised preflop to show strength and bet the flop which puts hero on an Ace. I think that you missed a raise on the river.
However, I think the betting pattern of the BB is a little weird too. Could it be the case that Hero didn't have much respect at the table and BB bets the turn and river to represent trips (which presumably puts Hero on a small to medium pair) Anyone agree or disagree?? Any thoughts on Villian's betting pattern??

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

I think Mason gets some sort of sick pleasure out of having people disagree with him.

-DrG

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Hi Mason,

Unless you are playing against a solid opponent and is extremely tricky, I can see why a flat call down here is possible. If an opponent knows you are too smart to be check-raised, then his option of betting the turn and river is the correct play.

Otherwise against most standard opponents I will 3-bet that river.

Lawrence

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Hi Mason,

Do you put him on AJ or 22 (possibly JJ), if not why no river raise?

Tyler

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

I like calling the turn to trap in weaker hands that plan on folding to a raise but clearly enough hands will call on the river that a raise is well worth it. Against a fairly competant player who would fold all hands you beat to a river raise you can just call to. However most players in the 80-160 game at the bellagio will not be able to fold trips with a worse kicker and some will always call the river raise with a jack. It would help alot if you clarified how your opponent plays. Against the majority of players in that game a raise is warrented in my oppinion.

SHAMA LAMA...DING DONG!

You put him on 5 3, and calling.....
 

if you thought the big blind would call your raise,
which he did, the only logical hand you feared was
5 3 for the straight. Hitting your trip A with the best
kicker, I don't believe you was thinking of him filling up
with his JJ or 22.
So, am I right, the only reason you did not raise the river
was the str8?
Thanks Mason

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

You might run into the random 3-bet on the river but I still think it's the best play, unless I had a big read on the player in question.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

You let KJ push keep you down here? Why the hell you didn't raise the river, only you can explain.

These games, these days, make this an easy river raise.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Once you call the turn, what hands do you think that BB would value bet? In particular does he expect you to call with KK and QQ?

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

No matter how many times I read the hand, I can't see a good reason for not raising the river.

SpaceAce

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Tried to calculate the EV of raising. The EV depends very much on which hands he will call the raise with. It is about break even if:

1) He will fold a jack, but call with a better hand worse than yours.
2) You will have to call a 3 bet, but never win it.

I have no idea how this game plays, but in any game I've played in a raise would be very profitable. What hands do you think he will fold here?

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

While the mindset is bad, this is about as close as I can get:

Pre-flop ... the BB put in the bet, closing out the action, with A-X, hoping you have just a big pair.

The flop comes with an Ace. You bet, apparently not scared. Oh, no, perhaps you have AK / AQ -- he'll call, hoping to dirty two pair you.

Turn: an Ace -- AHA! There is no way you have the case Ace. He'll bet, as you know he has A-X and he wants to make you pay to "catch" -- if you raise ... he'll call you down.

You don't -- his hand is "good" -- so he bets the river.

Likewise, the same mentality with KJ putting you on 10's or maybe KQ suited or something and NOT the Ace seeing as how there are two on the board.

LOTS of hands act like the BB did without having the A2 / JJ / AJ / etc etc.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

[ QUOTE ]
No matter how many times I read the hand, I can't see a good reason for not raising the river.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

Manson may believe he will not get called by a worse hand, raising the river will make it very obvious to his opponent that he is beat so, at this level, he folds his losers calls/raises his winners.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

[ QUOTE ]
nice hand tommy......

[/ QUOTE ]
No doubt, these two should write a book together.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

A little off topic, but would YOU value bet a pair of jacks on the river after Mason called the turn? Don't think I would. In fact, I might even check an iffy ace (although this is more debatable, since I can expect KK or QQ to pay off).

I suppose it all depends on how much (and how well), his opponent thinks. I'd like a river raise better if his opponent had bet the flop (or check/raised). But because of the lack of draws, I think it improves the likelihood that his opponent is betting the turn and river, not to "charge", or get "paid off", but is either bluffing or trying for 3 bets. IMO-

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

[ QUOTE ]

You will have to call a 3 bet, but never win it.



[/ QUOTE ]

?????

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Yes, just a computational shortcut/assumption. Would take too long to go into the game theory to find the optimal strategy here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

Nice hand, Tommy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm not so sure about the river raise everyone seems to want. He didn't bet or check-raise the flop, so when he bets the turn, it sure doesn't look like he has an ace Mason can beat. And he's going to fold pretty often to a river raise from Mason, unless he indeed does have him beat.

Re: Hand to Talk About
 

"A little off topic, but would YOU value bet a pair of jacks on the river after Mason called the turn? Don't think I would. In fact, I might even check an iffy ace (although this is more debatable, since I can expect KK or QQ to pay off)."

first off mason may check KK on the flop. that's one of his plays he's written about and it makes some sense. no i would not bet a J there but i in particular should because he would call *me* w/ TT and 99 if id been doing the mike l. show and getting out of line. also i can think of just about zero hands with a J that i would be in there with if he raised preflop after one limper. nor any hands w/ an A except AQs.

"I suppose it all depends on how much (and how well), his opponent thinks. I'd like a river raise better if his opponent had bet the flop (or check/raised). But because of the lack of draws, I think it improves the likelihood that his opponent is betting the turn and river, not to "charge", or get "paid off", but is either bluffing or trying for 3 bets."

youre overthinking this. very few opponents he can be against will be thinking on this high of a level. a player looking to get the most out of a very strong hand wouldve went for a checkraise on the flop and/or turn. this is either a bluff or a good but not great hand. either way mason must raise the river and give his opponent the chance to call or reraise with a worse hand.

mason played this hand like his opponent must know he's mason and must care and be worried as a result. that's silly.