Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Please excuse if you consider the below terrible poker play. I'm still learning. Was this a terrible call on the turn? I think I would have folded if it I only had a four flush and not the added gut shot possibility. One question about pot odds -- don't you have to take into consideration the money you would win (ie future pot expection) if you hit your card? Or do you just calculate based on what's in the pot at the time? Do you include your own money going in as part of the total?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.66 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.33 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (20.33 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 20.33 BB

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please excuse if you consider the below terrible poker play. I'm still learning. Was this a terrible call on the turn? I think I would have folded if it I only had a four flush and not the added gut shot possibility. One question about pot odds -- don't you have to take into consideration the money you would win (ie future pot expection) if you hit your card? Or do you just calculate based on what's in the pot at the time? Do you include your own money going in as part of the total?

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but with these questions, what are you playing 15-30 for? You must have some deep pockets.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Maybe you could have just helped answer my question instead of putting me down? I just have never understood about pot odds whether you are to take into account only the money in the pot at the time or also add on the future money you expect to go into it. Thanks

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

i would have folded the turn, but your call isnt that bad. neither one of your draws is to the nuts, someone could have a set and it may easily get capped here as it did. youre lucky another player came along for the ride increasing your pot odds.

as for your question about calculating odds for future bets, we call this term "implied odds". yes this is relevant, and if you hit your flush draw you will gain a couple extra bets assuming the river doesnt get checked through. if someone has a higher flush then you we call this "reverse implied odds", because youre losing extra bets for the rest of the hand.... the money that you have put into the pot is irrelevant, all that matters is how much money is in the pot in general.

while bernie was certainly rude in his post, he is probably correct is assuming that you are not at all ready for PP15-30 if you have to ask these questions.

i suggest you read theory of poker by sklanksy if youre interested in learning more about these subjects.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

You should add bets you will make on later streets, however in order for the call to be correct you generally need to have really close odds.
In this situation, you have to account for the times your hand is no good when it gets there. Beaten by a boat or a higher flush.
The A or 2 of diamonds pairs the board, and there is likely a set out. plus the odds of a higher flush, you go from having 9 outs to about 6-7, on top of this the pot is laying you just better than 3-1, with 7 outs you are a little better than 7-1, you wont make those bets up on the river, its too great.
You dont count the money you will be putting into the pot when counting down your pot odds.

Rude?
 

[ QUOTE ]
while bernie was certainly rude in his post

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think i could sugarcoat it any more than saying, 'No offense' at the beginning of it. Sorry if it was too honest of a question. It's a question i'd like to ask many of the 20-40 players where i play. Except, there im not on a forum that's there to help people, im there to make money off them.

b

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

I think the call is better if the A is the ace of diamonds. In this case, someone could have aces with a diamond draw, which leaves you drawing almost dead. You should really learn about pot and implied odds, as it will improve your game tremendously. Best of luck.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

This is a really tuff spot for a beginning player, especially considering the amount of money involved.

Here goes my meager analysis. You sir are [censored] on the turn and you need to get away from this hand.

However..... I play my draws like if I hit them they are going to be the best hand. Tha said, If I flop a draw I think is good I put the money in on the flop. I do this for value and to make my call on the turn when I miss better [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Pure and simple you should have gotten in 4 small bets on the flop if you could with this many callers.

After doing that and missing you are in a check call mode. Period. Make your judgement on the flop and go with it.

By the way, I'm not trying to be rude at all, but you need to have a good grasp of basic theory at this level, or you will get killed. You don't have that grasp yet, no big deal, just learn.

My style in summary, decide if you are drawing to a winning hand, balance the odds wih the number of callers, and GET THE MONEY IN ON THE FLOP. It makes so many turn decisions that much easier.

Oh, by the way, you should of mucked the turn considering the pot size on the flop.

FJM

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Wow. It's rarely correct to fold a draw this big, but this might just be the time. Note that the pot is really rather small, can still be raised again behind you, and you're not winning much by calling even if you're live, while the possibility of drawing dead looms.

I'd have a hard time folding this, but that's probably the best play.


good luck.
eric

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
My style in summary, decide if you are drawing to a winning hand, balance the odds wih the number of callers, and GET THE MONEY IN ON THE FLOP. It makes so many turn decisions that much easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

While not ridiculous, this really isn't good advice. It's far too simplistic. In particular, ramming and jamming a medium flush draw with no other outs against two or three opponents is not a great idea.

mmy 2 cents.
eric

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

I know my advice was simplistic but he is at a pretty early stage in his development. If you are getting three callers the money going in on the flop has positive expectation if he indeed has the best draw. If you don't think you have the best draw why in the world would you call any bets with what is currently ten high?

I understand the criticism of my simplicity, but what good does passively playing decent non-nut draws do? Might as well muck it if you are that big of a pessimist. The last thing I would do is just check call the ting and get myself caught in a spot like he did on the turn.

Also, I think by putting in as many as possible on the flop I will have a much better idea how live my draw is once that goofy action breaks out on the turn.

As it is, he called one small bet when he probably had the best draw and a multiway pot that gave him positive expectation to raise, then he got trapped for 4 BIG BETS without getting the right odds for his draw.

I really think a lot of the old hands really play non nut flush draws to passively. Fine, reduce variance, but then why bother getting involved at all? There have been times in my life when I have simply called the flop and check folded this type of draw on the turn when big action broke out. I was on a short bankroll, needed every dime I had, and was trying to grind a 20/40 for 300 a day. In this day and age players who passively play non nut flush draws are leaving money on the table.

FJM

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Anyone want to mention that it's a horrible flop call? It's suited. Has basically no straight potential. Once card straights are often tied, and lose to 2 card straights. If you miss all that, you want a 5 high flop, since any 10 should kick your ass (or noone has a 10 and you win little $$)

Once you fold, it's easy to play.

$0.02

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone want to mention that it's a horrible flop call? Once you fold, it's easy to play

[/ QUOTE ]

No. But i'll mention how horrible this statement is. He flopped 4 to a flush with 3 opponents in. I'd raise in this spot. Folding is out of the question.

Do you often fold 4 to a flush on the flop for a bet and 2 callers?

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
You sir are [censored] on the turn and you need to get away from this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way is he getting away from his hand here.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Your turn call is fine.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have folded if it I only had a four flush

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold 4 to a flushes on unpaired boards. For now, always figure you're going to the river with them. I cannot believe people are advocating folding on the turn here.

Many of the biggest pots i've seen taken down have been by baby flushes. Given the turn action, barring the board pairing, I'd feel strongly that if I hit my flush on the end it will be good.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

In particular, ramming and jamming a medium flush draw with no other outs against two or three opponents is not a great idea.

This is just not true against 3 opponents. Even given that some of the time you're going to make your flush and lose, you're still 1.86:1 to hit by the river (which you will be seeing almost 100% of the time).

Checkraising the flop in this example is clearly a +EV play.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

There is some, to say the least, "interesting" advice in this thread.

Folding on the turn would be a bad idea.

I agree with Bernie's assessment that the original poster may want to consider stepping back in levels while he is learning about implied-odds, etc. (get SSHE....much of the material is applicable to party 15/30).
It may be a bit insulting, but I think it's important to walk before you can run (or something like that).

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

I can certainly agree if he happened to flop a gutshot +
flushdraw. Is cr'ing the flop still +EV with his hand?

[ QUOTE ]

Checkraising the flop in this example is clearly a +EV play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]

I can certainly agree if he happened to flop a gutshot +
flushdraw. Is cr'ing the flop still +EV with his hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Not if someone has a set, but there's no reason to believe they should on the flop.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Am I missing something here? If he thinks that the whole table will call back to him he is getting 13.33 bb vs the 3 bb he'll put in. this is around 4.5-1, the odds of him making his flush on the river is just greater than 5-1. Ok no disagreement there.
if he thinks it will get capped off and everyone will call, that is 16.33 vs the 4 bb he will put in, this is just barely over 4-1.

So you guys are advising that he SHOULD call his 5-1 shot on a pot laying him 4.5 to 1? plus there is a very good chance with this action that if he gets there he is beaten by a higher flush, and a really really good chance that if the board pairs his flush is no good. Leaving him 7 outs. pushing him to just barely better than 7-1.

Lets assume he gets 3BB out of his opponents on the river. 1 from each. which if noone has a flush or boat action will die when flush gets there. If many bets go in on the river when he gets there hes probly not good.
So assuming that you can push him to getting 5.5-1 if its not capped and less than 5-1 if it gets capped. so if it gets capped its -ev unless he can extract more than 1 bet from every opponent on the river when his flush gets there.
If it doesnt get capped it is +ev only if all 9 diamonds are clean and there is no higher flush out.

I dont think that this play wins money over time.
Am I overlooking something?

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

I agree with putting in some bets on the flop here. It is +ev to check raise and pump this pot on the flop.

Maybe as general advice for a new player you should just always call down with a 4 flush, but in this instance, I dont believe its correct to call on the turn.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
but in this instance, I dont believe its correct to call on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what? There are no reads given on the opponents in this hand. Not that that would matter, i'm still calling this turn.

You are dead wrong. You call in this spot, period. All 3 opponents are jamming here, likely without a draw. There is no real indication that if you hit your flush it won't be good. Folding here is horrendous and extremely weak, seeing monsters way of thinking. Your stomach couldn't hold enough bile that you'd expectorate should your flush come in, you folded the turn, and it would've been good in this huge a pot. What the hell is everyone afraid of here!?!

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Too many if's to make the call correct.
You cant factor in the fact that you'll be sad if it hits.

You are currently getting 3-1 on a 5-1 shot that you can most likely only give 7 outs too making it 7-1.
Maybe 8 outs making it 6-1 but I think 7 is right.
It looks like the whole table just woke up on the turn. Generally a bet, raise and reraise in front of you means somebody connected with the board.
So, you are calling against the odds, that is clear.
You are hoping to make up the bets on the river (implied odds).
I dont think with this flush draw you are picking up many bets when you are good (people like to shut down when the obvioius draw gets there and they dont beat it), and you will probly put in a couple more bets if someone has the higher flush.

So if everything happens perfectly yes you will show a slight profit.
But there is no way the call is that clear.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Folding here is a bad idea.

your statement that there is a 'good chance' that you will get beaten by a higher flush-draw is incorrect.
unless you're holding the nuts there is ALWAYS a chance someone else will be better.
But i don't know how you can say there is a 'good chance' in this situation.

There is no reason to think your flush-draw wouldn't be good. Even if you think there is a 10% chance that someone could have a higher flush (which I think would be pushing it) you should still be calling here.

folding here is -EV....calling to try to hit the flush is +EV.
It's as simple as that.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Hi Blake,

I think you may be overlooking the gutshot straight draw here. I agree that drawing to just the mediocre flush draw in this pot is wrong. The gutshot makes it close though.

good luck.
eric

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

ah ok, your right I diddnt even notice it.
Yea that adds 3 outs. pushing you to 4-1 dog.
That makes it a good call. Still fairly close, but a call none the less.
I agree now thanks elin.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that drawing to just the mediocre flush draw in this pot is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree. This is an easy call.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
Too many if's to make the call correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way too scared of thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
You are currently getting 3-1 on a 5-1 shot that you can most likely only give 7 outs too making it 7-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually 7 outs is about 5.5-1. Your also not really counting the money in the pot already, plus some implied odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe 8 outs making it 6-1 but I think 7 is right

[/ QUOTE ]

8 outs is better than 5-1.

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like the whole table just woke up on the turn. Generally a bet, raise and reraise in front of you means somebody connected with the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which can indicate that your drawing very live if the flush hits. The main thing i'd look out for is if the board paired.

It's also bad to fold here given the table and opponent description. Which is 'none'.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

I agree with Bernie that I don't agree.

The call should be routine on just the flush-draw alone.

RESULTS of this hand, what they had
 

BB shows [ Td, 5d ] high card ace.
UTG shows [ Ad, 6d ] a pair of aces.
UTG + 1 shows [ 2h, 3c ] two pairs, threes and twos.
CO shows [ As, 7h ] two pairs, aces and sevens.
CO wins $607 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and sevens.

Re: RESULTS of this hand, what they had
 

Looking at these guys hand selection and how they bet, no way am i folding on the turn in the future.

This looks like a fantastic game.

b

Re: RESULTS of this hand, what they had
 

You like that 23 offsuit, eh?

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are currently getting 3-1 on a 5-1 shot that you can most likely only give 7 outs too making it 7-1.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Actually 7 outs is about 5.5-1. Your also not really counting the money in the pot already, plus some implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

7 outs in 46 unseen cards.
odds of 1 of those 7 cards coming up on the river? 46/7
6.57-1
I generally just round up.

I was actually taking into account all money that will go into the pot. And I was assuming no one would fold for 3 bets cold back to them, and that no one would cap it. If i dont assume those things, the odds to call get much worse.
I dont see any evidence that these opponents will put in more than 1 bet each on average on the river, so I assumed 1 bet each.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe 8 outs making it 6-1 but I think 7 is right

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

8 outs is better than 5-1.

[/ QUOTE ]


8 outs is 5.75-1



[ QUOTE ]
It looks like the whole table just woke up on the turn. Generally a bet, raise and reraise in front of you means somebody connected with the board.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Which can indicate that your drawing very live if the flush hits. The main thing i'd look out for is if the board paired.

It's also bad to fold here given the table and opponent description. Which is 'none'.



[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the table description is hazy at best, but i'm assuming as the best generic play here folding is best.
I havent even taken into consderation the chance of a higher flush being out which will occur sometimes with this action.

Note that there is only 1 card left to come. And we are calling 3 big bets cold, not 1 big bet.
This is a -ev call if you do not include the back door straight draw.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

You are not missing anything. It is razpor thin on the turn, there are most likely only 7 clean flush outs. If you felt sure yuo would get called and overcalled on the river if you made your hand with a clean diamond then the call is ok.

Everyone advocating that this is a weak hand on the flop is totally wrong. Think about it. If you flopped a ten high four flush against 3 sure callers every hand you played for the res of your life you would be a millionaire in a year. Will you soetimes miss, will you sometimes lose to higher flush, will the board sometimes pair? Sure. But it is still +ev in these situaions.

If he has the best draw all flops bets are making him money.

I would even bet in this situation he absoulutely has the best draw. The single bet flop would lead me to believe I was on the best diamond draw, and the second clup on the turn adn the subseuent action would indicate sets and pairs that just picked up club draws.

As I mentioned before, getting as much money in on the flop in a favorable odds scenario makes your calls on fourth street less expensive when you miss. There would be no argument about the EV of the turn call if he go 4 small bets from 3 players in on the Flop.

FJM

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
7 outs in 46 unseen cards.
odds of 1 of those 7 cards coming up on the river? 46/7
6.57-1
I generally just round up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect.

By your logic, if I have a 46-out draw on the turn, with 46 unseen cards, then 46/46 = 1:1 odds. However, 1:1 odds represent a 23-outer, not a 46-outer.

The correct way to represent the odds for an 8-outer on the turn, for instance, would be:

(Number of unseen cards - Outs):Outs
(46-8):8 or 4.75:1

Entendido?

Re: Rude?
 

Hey, at least you weren't called a racist like mike l.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

Haha yea I just looked that over and i wrecked the math, guess im drunk ::shrug::

I agree with putting money in on the flop, the turn action is where im thinking its close.
37:9 4-1 on the turn...

With the straight draw its an easy call, but the 10 high flush draw alone seems at least close.

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
8 outs is 5.75-1

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not.

46 cards left. 8-38. It's actually under 5-1.

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the table description is hazy at best, but i'm assuming as the best generic play here folding is best.
I havent even taken into consderation the chance of a higher flush being out which will occur sometimes with this action.

Note that there is only 1 card left to come. And we are calling 3 big bets cold, not 1 big bet.
This is a -ev call if you do not include the back door straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ]
I dont see any evidence that these opponents will put in more than 1 bet each on average on the river, so I assumed 1 bet each.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no evidence either way for what these players may have. You don't err on the side of folding good draws against unknowns on a board like this.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
With the straight draw its an easy call, but the 10 high flush draw alone seems at least close.


[/ QUOTE ]

I will agree that it's close with just the flush draw. Meaning, whichever way you go likely won't matter much in the longrun. Therefore, err on the side of calling. Especially against unknowns.

b

Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
The single bet flop would lead me to believe I was on the best diamond draw,

[/ QUOTE ]

Or that the bettor is the only other one with a possible solid flush draw.

I'd c/r the flop, but i wouldn't cap it with this hand. You have to use a little discretion with smaller flush draws.

b