AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 24.75 BB

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

You didn't get lucky - but you didn't play it well either.

Bet the flop - call his inevitable raise.

Call the turn.

C/R the river.

Alex

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't get lucky - but you didn't play it well either.

Bet the flop - call his inevitable raise.

Call the turn.

C/R the river.

Alex

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya. Bet the flop.

I'd raise the turn also.

c/r the river is 50/50. I guess it depends on your table read.

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

I like it, although flop &amp; turn are a little aggressive for me.

With middle pair, runner-runner flush and one overcard which will put 3 to a str8 on the board you're not terribly strong. Likewise the raise on the turn: you're 5:1 to hit the flush and at best have 4 callers, but the implicit odds probably make up for that.

Any time you hit runner-runner flush people will berate you for your "foolish" play. And when you miss they'll take your money with nary a complaint :-).

-- Scott

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

Preflop: Standard

Flop: What were your reasoning when you raised. IMO you don't accomplish anything with that. You won't get a freecard since CO has position on you and you risk getting 3-betted. I only raise here if CO is a LAG who will bluff here almost always.

Turn: You have a really strong draw strong draw. CO might have a set or KJ which makes me wanna discount your out to 12. I do not fear UTG+2 that much, might have hit 2-pair or a weaker flushdraw. You have about 26% equity which will make this bet for value if you get 3 callers. In this big pot it's not unlikely and that's exactly what you get (3 callers). I would have settled for a call though, risking a 3-bet from CO.

River: Standard

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

Obviously the C/R on the river is read dependent - I don't even bother saying that now when I should.

I don't like the turn raise - I think he can see the river for cheap, and I'm not sure how many outs he actually has. Clearly the 9 spades are good, but the 3 aces are debatable...especially when looking at the flop action - I'd give hero about 12.5 outs - which isn't enough to justify raising this turn.

I lied - the turn raise is fine.

I still don't make this raise because I don't want to force the field to call two cold when I'm on a flush draw.

Alex

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

The turn agressor is in front of hero so I would not try to check/raise the river.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
I'd raise the turn also.

c/r the river is 50/50. I guess it depends on your table read.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise the turn you would never try to check/raise the river, I guess?

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
don't like the turn raise - I think he can see the river for cheap, and I'm not sure how many outs he actually has. Clearly the 9 spades are good, but the 3 aces are debatable...especially when looking at the flop action - I'd give hero about 12.5 outs - which isn't enough to justify raising this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has only 7 good spadeouts when CO has flopped a set. But giving 12.5 outs is a reasonable estimation, even if I'd say it's a little generous. 11-12 I would say looking at the flop action.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
I still don't make this raise because I don't want to force the field to call two cold when I'm on a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, you might fold opponents you need in the pot to make raising +EV.

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Flop: What were your reasoning when you raised. IMO you don't accomplish anything with that. You won't get a freecard since CO has position on you and you risk getting 3-betted. I only raise here if CO is a LAG who will bluff here almost always.



[/ QUOTE ]

Is the raise worth it if it drives MP3 out? If not, is it worth it if it makes two opponents call two cold or folds them? Three?

I wouldn't raise the turn though - I don't try to drive people out when I'm on a draw.

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
Is the raise worth it if it drives MP3 out? If not, is it worth it if it makes two opponents call two cold or folds them? Three?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say no.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
I wouldn't raise the turn though - I don't try to drive people out when I'm on a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree.

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

the flop checkraise is bizarre, after being 3-bet you must be behind to a king at least. the turn raise is crazy, i would call. river fine.

yes, lucky, but after the flop play and turn spade you're committed. say "i like to gambool" and move on.

Regards,
Pete Harris

Re: AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?
 

I would have bet out on the flop. Not with the intention of winning the pot right there, but even with this huge pot there is still a chance to possibly gain the button.

I don't like the flop checkraise, because at this point I really don't want to have to be in for three bets to see the turn.

Same with the turn raise. At this point you are behind. Yes you do have 13 outs to 2-pair or better, but with COs action on the flop, you need to at least consider the possibility of a set. This may sound passive, but on the river you are either going to make your set of jacks, 2-pair or flush. Or you are going to probably have to fold the river. Again on the turn, I really do not want to have to call three or four bets. Granted if all 13 outs are clean (which in this situation is slightly questionable) you only need 3 people to call your raise for value. However I think you were fortunate that it did not come back to you capped.

That said, I do not think that this was a horrendous suckout. The PF raise was good. No way in hell you fold the flop. On the turn , maybe the raise was questionable, but it is probably a close decision. So that said you are seeing the river no matter what the way this hand played out, it's just a matter of what you did on the way.