Odds to Chase?
 

This was an interesting hand for me. I limped in CO-1 with 56s and it was raised behind me. The flop left me with a gutshot straight draw. I was about to fold when I realized I had the odds to call, and that continued to the river. Anybody play this any differently?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(9 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

I'm getting 18:1 on the call with 4 outs.

Turn: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Again, I'm getting more than 10:1.

River: (16.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, CO calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 19.50 BB

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

On the flop, I would probably only call it 3 or 3.5 outs. How good do you feel about your hand if the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits the turn and BB goes crazy? I still think this call is okay though.

On the turn, I am probably done with this hand. The odds are close if you are considering hitting the straight, but with the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe not helping you and possibly losing to a full house even if you hit on the end, I would probably fold. You really need close to 11 to 1 odds of winning when you hit to make a gutshot profitable.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

Your gutshot is only worth 3-3.5 outs, due to the flush draw.

The board pairing on the turn devalues your hand more than you realize, and I fold.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

Gutshots are 10:1 based on card odds on the next cards, but I give it a 7:1 implied odds on a rainbow flop, 3.5 to 1 implied on 2 over cards and gutshot, but then discount it to 14:1 if the flop is two suited. You did you have 18 to 1 on the flop, making it correct to draw technically.. but, you got lucky in my opinion. There were 5 people to act behind you, any of them could have easily value bet raised on a flush draw or any other reason. That would have made your crappy draw even more crappier and trapping you into calling more than you'd like. I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had.. unless there were other out possibilities, such as an improvement to a backdoor flush draw.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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On the flop, I would probably only call it 3 or 3.5 outs. How good do you feel about your hand if the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits the turn and BB goes crazy? I still think this call is okay though.


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I won't discount the 3rd of a suit quite that much, but even if it is only 3 outs I'm getting more than 14:1.

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On the turn, I am probably done with this hand. The odds are close if you are considering hitting the straight, but with the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe not helping you and possibly losing to a full house even if you hit on the end, I would probably fold. You really need close to 11 to 1 odds of winning when you hit to make a gutshot profitable.

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I'm getting 13.5:1 on the turn. I thought the full house was unlikely so I wasn't worried about it, but maybe I should have considered it. Any one else?

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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The board pairing on the turn devalues your hand more than you realize, and I fold.

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How much does it devalue it, a half an out?

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

fold the turn. someone could easily raise this behind you and kill your slim odds.

the board pairing isn't a big factor compared to the 4 of flushes discount (at least 50% discount.. maybe 75%-90%) and your relative position troubles.

the board pairing may discount all your outs by 5%.. J4 or an existing boat are not too common. a T on board and I may discount it 15%-20%. i rarely think of specific discounting numbers tho.. i probably should.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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That would have made your crappy draw even more crappier and trapping you into calling more than you'd like.


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Why wouldn't I like to call if I'm getting the correct odds?

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

I'd fold the flop. The spectre of the preflop raiser raising after me catching me in between has me picking a better spot to chase. You're drawing to a hand that might not win even if you hit.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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fold the turn. someone could easily raise this behind you and kill your slim odds.

the board pairing isn't a big factor compared to the 4 of flushes discount (at least 50% discount.. maybe 75%-90%) and your relative position troubles.

the board pairing may discount all your outs by 5%.. J4 or an existing boat are not too common. a T on board and I may discount it 15%-20%. i rarely think of specific discounting numbers tho.. i probably should.

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Weird, the forum isn't showing your entire message. I wonder why?

Anyway, how do you think about someone raising behind you when you face a pot odds situation like I did on the turn? My reasoning was that no one had shown any particular aggression so far, so I thought a raise was unlikely. If it did happen, my pot odds were still going to be close for calling the raise. So I went ahead and called the bet.

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

i have a bad habit of editing my posts after submitting them, maybe it glitched somewhere.

its just a discount like any other. if its 50% likely to be raised once (you'd obviously call the raise), then you are pretty much putting in 1.5 bets, so do your pot odds calculation with that (and the expected pot size when all turn action is done).

if its 30% likely to be raised.. then do a weighted calc:

1.3 bets into a (.3 * &lt;pot size when raised) + .7 * (pot size when not raised) expected pot. then apply your other discounts.

honestly i just made this up, i assume its correct tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had..

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This is clearly wrong.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

You fold because you did not improve and others may have.

Gutshots are marginal draws anyways, but are only acceptable with the right flop and further implied odds. Once you miss on the turn, you lose a round of implied odds .. not to mention it now costs a big bet to chase to a hand that may not win.

In your example, the turn paired the board. Therefore, you may already be up against a boat. If not, you could easily be rivered by a flush or a boat. Even if you were only up against trip jacks on the turn, you had callers behind you and very likely could have been trapped with raises.

Frankly, even if the turn looks like a harmless blank.. I would let go of the hand.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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I'd fold the flop. The spectre of the preflop raiser raising after me catching me in between has me picking a better spot to chase. You're drawing to a hand that might not win even if you hit.

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Even if he knew he would be raised here, it would not be too wrong to call. He would be getting at least 12-1 in current pot odds (making the assumptions that only the raiser and those already in would stay and that no-one would re-raise). He does not know that he will be raised, so folding the flop is wrong.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had..

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This is clearly wrong.

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You're entitled to your opinion, but I don't think I give up anything to avoid the risk of being trapped for big bets on a mediocre draw.

In order for the pot to be quite big, there would probably have to be a preflop raise or a lot of action on the flop. I just don't see many circumstances where I would play a POS like 65s preflop when raised , or being trapped with a gutshot draw with lots of betting on the flop. The only gutshots plausible would be with high cards, and you just have to expect at least a raise on the turn - and then a very real possibility that your gutshot may counterfeit with someone to win a split pot.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

I didn't say I thought he should call the turn here. (I don't.) I said that failing to call profittable draws, even long shots, is wrong.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

I disagree. Why assume it won't get reraised by the flop original flop bettor? It could easily get capped by the original raiser then how do your odds look? Even if this doesn't happen one of your outs puts a three flush on the board so you can't call this a true 4-outer. Your 12:1 odds are only good if your draw is a solid four-outer to the nuts on the turn.

With this hand you kind of need to get the 4 on the turn because you probably wont have the odds to see the river if you miss. Even if you catch the non-4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 to make the str8 on the turn there are tons of redraws that kill you on the river. This is a marginal call drawing to a hand that is not the nuts. You have 9 players on the flop most of whom have odds to draw to a flush. Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had..

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This is clearly wrong.

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You're entitled to your opinion, but I don't think I give up anything to avoid the risk of being trapped for big bets on a mediocre draw.

In order for the pot to be quite big, there would probably have to be a preflop raise or a lot of action on the flop. I just don't see many circumstances where I would play a POS like 65s preflop when raised , or being trapped with a gutshot draw with lots of betting on the flop. The only gutshots plausible would be with high cards, and you just have to expect at least a raise on the turn - and then a very real possibility that your gutshot may counterfeit with someone to win a split pot.

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Well, you are also entitled to your opinion, but it's weak-tight and frankly, wrong. If you are ever folding a gutshot draw to the nuts, closing the action, and getting more than about 9:1, you are losing money. And that is just one of many situations where chasing a gutshot is correct.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

The biggest reason to fold the turn is your position to the bettor. There could possibly be a raise behind you, but more importantly if you hit on the river you won't be able to extract any extra bets. In fact, if you hit on the river and it's checked to MP1 and he bets the correct play would be to call hoping for overcalls.

Even so, the turn call is still correct. You don't need to discount your outs for the possibility of a full house because it's unlikely someone has J7,J3, 33, 77, or J4. It's possible, of course, and if you want you can take away like .25 of an out. However, you should discount to like 3.5 outs due to the flush draw.

In summary, you played the hand fine.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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I disagree. Why assume it won't get reraised by the flop original flop bettor? It could easily get capped by the original raiser then how do your odds look? Even if this doesn't happen one of your outs puts a three flush on the board so you can't call this a true 4-outer. Your 12:1 odds are only good if your draw is a solid four-outer to the nuts on the turn.

With this hand you kind of need to get the 4 on the turn because you probably wont have the odds to see the river if you miss. Even if you catch the non-4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 to make the str8 on the turn there are tons of redraws that kill you on the river. This is a marginal call drawing to a hand that is not the nuts. You have 9 players on the flop most of whom have odds to draw to a flush. Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

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If I KNEW it would be raised (much less reraised), I would fold; I just said it wouldn't be too wrong to call. We do not know it will be raised; typical Party .5/1 players are overly passive; they don't raise often enough and they certainly don't 3-bet enough. He has a significant overlay to call for 3 outs here (he is getting 20-1 in current pot odds!); more than enough to cover the redraws and the possibiblity of being raised. If it is raised (or reraised) back to us, that would stink, but I do not think that is likely enough to fold here. (Plus the flush draw doesn't HAVE to be out there.)

[BTW: If there is a flush draw out there, he is not folding for any number of bets. He would call a cap cold. Why is that relevant? (And a non spade 4 *would* give him the current nuts.)]

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

7 players to the turn.. i think the 4 of flushes needs a larger discount. i'd say about 3.25 outs, minus some rare boat potential i suppose.. 3.1 - 3.2 outs i'm thinking.

also, the top card pairing will often give TPWK a reason to raise if one of the 5 others have a J.

a turn call may be able to be snuck in, but a fold ain't bad either.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

I believe this is essentially correct. You should consider how being raised behind you effects your odds before you put in the first call. Saying to yourself,"I have the odds right now to call, and my pot odds will only be better on calling a raise behind" is not the correct way to think about it. Thinking like this will really have you making many -EV decisions. You are really committing potentially 2 bets when you call the first bet, because you are committed to call a raise, so your pot odds were really only about half as good as you thought they were when you called the first bet.

If you knew the chance that someone would raise behind you, a good pot odds calculation would be something like
Pot + (raise behind %)*(number raise callers)*(1BB) to 1 BB + (raise behing %) * 1BB odds.
In practice, you don't really know enough about the other players hands and tendancies to do this, but on a 10 to 1 or so shot with almost right at 10 to 1 current pot odds, you know that if the raise behind percent is 1% you are making a -EV call in the first place. This is why chasing is much better in position, because you can buy free cards or possibly have the option to close the betting.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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Why assume it won't get reraised by the flop original flop bettor?

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Why assume it will?

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It could easily get capped by the original raiser then how do your odds look?

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Still good, the pot is big. Also, for it to get capped, someone would need to raise, then someone would 3-bet, THEN it could be capped. Not a big concern at this point.

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Even if this doesn't happen one of your outs puts a three flush on the board so you can't call this a true 4-outer.

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This is true. Odds are still good anyway.

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Your 12:1 odds are only good if your draw is a solid four-outer to the nuts on the turn.

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I'm not really sure what you mean by this, but do you only play draws to the nuts? Anyway, he only needs around 3.2 outs to make this immediate call correct.

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With this hand you kind of need to get the 4 on the turn because you probably wont have the odds to see the river if you miss.

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Heh, well I'm sure he was trying to get the 4 to fall on the turn, but just wasn't concentrating hard enough. He still has the odds to call.

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Even if you catch the non-4 4 to make the str8 on the turn there are tons of redraws that kill you on the river.

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True.

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This is a marginal call drawing to a hand that is not the nuts

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True.

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You have 9 players on the flop most of whom have odds to draw to a flush

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They all have odds to draw to a flush but what does that have to do with anything?

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Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

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Flop call = good.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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3.1 - 3.2

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That's fine. You take the 3.1 and fold, I'll take the 3.2 and call. It's a close decision.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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3.1 - 3.2

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That's fine. You take the 3.1 and fold, I'll take the 3.2 and call. It's a close decision.

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yeah, i agree with everything you said.. but i'm not calling or folding based on 3.1 or 3.2 outs. i'm making that decision based on the likelihood of a raise behind us. that's more important that a trivial tenth of an out. .5 outs for the 4 of flushes is too much tho, just had to nitpick on that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

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Nah. It's a close decision. Folding would not be bad, but calling is not wrong.

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This discussion (in this sub-thread) is about the flop, not the turn. Are you sure it's a close decision?

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

Mah bad, thought we were talking about the turn there.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

piiop and i are talking about the turn. you guys had a separate flop discussion. the flop call is just fine.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

How does the way the action went down affect your estimate of how often it will be raised behind us on the turn? Specifically, that the original flop bettor checked and MP1 bet the turn. (Reads would help a lot here - on the bettors and players left to act)

I just dont think it will happen very often at all. Like I said in my first post in this thread, I think the biggest reason to fold the turn is your relative position. Your odds could be cut by a raise/reraise behind you and you won't pick up any extra river bets. So, if you thought the probability of a raise behind you was somewhat substantial then you could easily go from call to fold (Or fold to easier fold [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). If he folded, I definitely wouldn't say it was bad. It's on the very edge of +EV but could easily fall into -EV given the right circumstances. But I do think it can be +EV, so a call would not be incorrect.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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(Reads would help a lot here - on the bettors and players left to act)


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I'd just sat down so I didn't have any reads I trusted.

I almost didn't post this hand because looking it over I thought "Well, dummy, this is just calculating pot odds, no one's going to make any comment!" :-)

I obviously need to work on my position play; I didn't think about it nearly enough on this hand.

-- Scott