Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Hello all,

Longtime lurker, firsttime poster. Does anyone here ever try to dodge variance by quitting when they're ahead? I ask because I am looking at my regular online games right now, and they are all SO soft (it being Friday night and all), but I just went on a rush and won 50BB in about an hour. So I quit, putting me miles ahead for the day with minimal effort.

I know that I should keep playing (I'm a 3.5BB/100 winning player), and I did for a while after my big wins, but the cards were cold and I just sort of felt like I wanted to dodge the (inevitable?) downturn.

Anyways, it's goofy and irrational, but does anyone else ever try to sneak away before the poker gods balance things out?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I knew this would be the first response.

I've been playing poker for 10 years. I know this. I'm asking a lightheated question about when the itch to dodge a lightningbolt irrationally hits me. Why is everyone always so deadly serious here?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

[/ QUOTE ]

who says there has to be a next hand? quitting (permanently) is a very effective way of dodging variance.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

How do you know that you were just about to hit a losing streak?

If you're a winning player, the probability that you were about to hit a 25BB winning streak is greater than the probability you were about to hit a 25BB losing streak. So you just cost yourself money.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I knew this would be the first response.

I've been playing poker for 10 years. I know this. I'm asking a lightheated question about when the itch to dodge a lightningbolt irrationally hits me. Why is everyone always so deadly serious here?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i just like to provide correct info.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Haha. I like your attitude Puppy, but I think your getting your answer whether you realize it or not. The answer is "no". You sound like a winning player and as a winner you know that irrational thoughts have no business at the poker table.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Haha. I like your attitude Puppy, but I think your getting your answer whether you realize it or not. The answer is "no". You sound like a winning player and as a winner you know that irrational thoughts have no business at the poker table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah well, it's also irrational to pay a couple of ladies $500 to double team you, but ... actually I don't know where I was going with that.

Suffice to say I know that the sky is blue and how much a stripper sandwich'll cost ya.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get it. are you asking us to play dumb? ok, i'm game.

most people, when they're running cold, ask for a setup change (for B&amp;M poker that is). this is just about the stupidest thing you can do. what if the cards were just about to turn hot? now you got a deck of smoking hot cards just sitting in the chip tray you dumbass! the best thing to do in this situation is to stick with the original deck, but make sure to have the dealer "wash" the cards. it's the only way.

if you're talking about online poker, well here's a little trick i learned. say you seem to be catching 1 good card, then 1 bad card. like you catch a nice looking K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but then it's followed by a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. i have found the solution for this. what you do (after you've changed the deck color to green obviously) is, when you're dealt the first card, if it's a good one, you cover it up with a window. the easiest one to use is the options window that pops up when you click the dealer's chip tray. anyways, you cover the hand up with that options box before you are dealt the 2nd card. now when it's your turn to act, you slowly move the options box until you can see your 1 good card. then you again slowly move it, effectively "squeezing out" your other card. you will then find that you have been dealt a good hand.

these two methods are foolproof.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Okay, well nice try I guess. Maybe turn up the funny and turn down the suck next time though, or just stick to playing smart.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

sigh.


you have insulted my honor sir! i hereby challenge you to a heads up pot limit omaha hi/lo sit n go on pokerstars w/ buyin no less than $500! do you accept?

stand and deliver!

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
sigh.


you have insulted my honor sir! i hereby challenge you to a heads up pot limit omaha hi/lo sit n go on pokerstars w/ buyin no less than $500! do you accept?

stand and deliver!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I do! Go log in right now and make a private table, sirruh! I will be along forthwith!

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Daryn, I was digging around the archives and found this old pic of you...
http://www.picpop.com/gallery/albums...l_be_funny.jpg

lolz

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Daryn, I was digging around the archives and found this old pic of you...
http://www.picpop.com/gallery/albums...l_be_funny.jpg

lolz

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha!

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

wow, the joke is on you. that totally isn't me! i mean... oh wow. wow. the funny thing is, i don't even look like that guy! seriously, i don't! i'm not joking. seriously, ask people who have met me. i don't look anything like that! wow.. that is crazy.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Dad?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Apple-polishers???!!!!?!?!?!



[ QUOTE ]
Do you ever try to "dodge" variance?

[/ QUOTE ]


Yup. Unfortunately, it doesn't try to dodge me.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Apple-polishers???!!!!?!?!?!



[ QUOTE ]
Do you ever try to "dodge" variance?

[/ QUOTE ]


Yup. Unfortunately, it doesn't try to dodge me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, now we're doing a bit better.

Is my avatar there now, btw?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Buster, any chance you could find an image hositing site that doesnt make us go through the loops of going into the image properties?

Or is that just me?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Sir! The only way to stop the variance after a good rush is to put on an aluminum foil hat. That always keeps the bad cards away. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hello all,

Longtime lurker, firsttime poster. Does anyone here ever try to dodge variance by quitting when they're ahead? I ask because I am looking at my regular online games right now, and they are all SO soft (it being Friday night and all), but I just went on a rush and won 50BB in about an hour. So I quit, putting me miles ahead for the day with minimal effort.

I know that I should keep playing (I'm a 3.5BB/100 winning player), and I did for a while after my big wins, but the cards were cold and I just sort of felt like I wanted to dodge the (inevitable?) downturn.

Anyways, it's goofy and irrational, but does anyone else ever try to sneak away before the poker gods balance things out?

[/ QUOTE ]

i do it all the time. i table hop with the best of them and sometimes win a big pot my first hand at a table and don't post the sb

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Well daryn, I thought it was funny. It instantly conjours up images of brick and morter players squeezing out the cards, and I laugh inside every time I see that.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

yes when your hot your hot but when you get cold it's time to go.... that is the idea, to leave while your ahead, never feel bad about going away winners [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] i think it makes for a good player to know when enough is enough, i've seen to many people play tired and catch up only to lose even more.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Daryn, I was digging around the archives and found this old pic of you...
http://www.picpop.com/gallery/albums...l_be_funny.jpg

lolz

[/ QUOTE ]

How are you able to look into the future like this?

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Sure, why not.

I generally play on a schedule. So I have regular sessions. The outcome of my next session is in no way going to be affected by the outcome of this one. If I stop this session up 300 hundred dollars then I have "locked in" a three hundred dollar gain.

The only problem with this approach is that you have no way of knowing whether you would lose money or gain money if you continued to play. On the other hand, you have to stop somewhere, and when you are up big ain't a bad place to stop. I'm guaranteed to feel good about my results for the day.

--Zetack

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, you won't have to listen to advice from me again.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, you won't have to listen to advice from me again.

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got an internerd DOWN!

We have SAND in the VAGINA!

Someone get me a DOUCHE, STAT!

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Zetack makes a valid point. Quitting ahead makes you feel good. This is good for your mental health. If you are a machine (a winning one), or never ever let emotions get to you, then play on.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, you won't have to listen to advice from me again.

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got an internerd DOWN!

We have SAND in the VAGINA!

Someone get me a DOUCHE, STAT!

[/ QUOTE ]


LOLOLOLOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Omg I am still laughing. I am SO EFFING FUNNY.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everyone always so deadly serious here?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a difference between being deadly serious and simply living in the logical, real world.

You can't dodge variance. Your post is silly and lacks any real content other than "gee whiz, sometimes I quit early because I feel like maybe I won't lose my winnings back". While this is an observation and feeling that many can probably relate to, what kind of a response could we possibly give? "Yeah, I've felt that way too"?

Meanwhile, you've said that you also know that your next hand is you next hand, whether you play it now or two days from now. So what's the point of your post? And don't say you weren't looking for comments -- by posting on an open internet forum, you opened yourself up to the inevitable barrage of responses telling you that, in fact, your post lacked any sort of logical point.

Welcome to 2+2. I'm sure you've realized by now that good poker players tend to have little patiences for things they deem pointless. And rightly so.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get it. are you asking us to play dumb? ok, i'm game.

most people, when they're running cold, ask for a setup change (for B&amp;M poker that is). this is just about the stupidest thing you can do. what if the cards were just about to turn hot? now you got a deck of smoking hot cards just sitting in the chip tray you dumbass! the best thing to do in this situation is to stick with the original deck, but make sure to have the dealer "wash" the cards. it's the only way.

if you're talking about online poker, well here's a little trick i learned. say you seem to be catching 1 good card, then 1 bad card. like you catch a nice looking K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but then it's followed by a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. i have found the solution for this. what you do (after you've changed the deck color to green obviously) is, when you're dealt the first card, if it's a good one, you cover it up with a window. the easiest one to use is the options window that pops up when you click the dealer's chip tray. anyways, you cover the hand up with that options box before you are dealt the 2nd card. now when it's your turn to act, you slowly move the options box until you can see your 1 good card. then you again slowly move it, effectively "squeezing out" your other card. you will then find that you have been dealt a good hand.

these two methods are foolproof.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too funny [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

We have a winner. This thread was solved in 31 posts.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

i thought i finished it in 1 post, in less words.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

It lowers your overall EV, but I believe one way to 'dodge' variance is to avoid profitable plays that are longshots.

For instance, you may have the odds to draw to an inside straight on the turn and river, but since that won't come in very often and is going to cost you two big bets to find out, you could just fold instead.

Especially against a table of loose, passive, bad players, you can give up some hourly expectation when you are sure to be called when you have a giant advantage.

I'm not saying it's a good idea, but if you are going to be called by six players on the river (or raise by some guy whose seen WPT too many times) when you have the nuts, you may not need to eek out other tiny advantages to show a profit. You just won't be realizing the maximum profit.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Omg I am still laughing. I am SO EFFING FUNNY.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're also a snotty condesending loser.

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Omg I am still laughing. I am SO EFFING FUNNY.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're also a snotty condesending loser.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should make a poll about it!

Re: Do you ever try to \"dodge\" variance?
 

Yeah, I agree with Zetac - I occasionally like to quit a winner and lock in a winning session. I also have stop-loss limits too. Irrational maybe (or at least not supported by the science of proability when playing with an advantage) but I have a finite available playing time each day and if I'm within $x of it with 10 mins to go I'll stop rather than risk my gains.

Dave/MEL.

no because
 

im greedy,