5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

villian in this hand is a very tough/tricky pro, has a WSOP bracelet (in stud hi/low), is by far the best player on the table, and has me way covered.
he is a little steamed after losing a couple big pots, but i don't think this guy ever goes on tilt.

my image at this point is fairly solid. i've been showing down quality hands, however i have shown a willingness to semi/bluff.

i feel as though i am a better player then most at the table, and have been winning fairly easily in the game, the pro is really the only one i don't want to tangle with.

ok on to the hand.
i'm in the BB w/J5 and ~2.5K. villain is on the button and has around 6K.
4 limpers to me and i check.

Pot: $50.

flop J52 rainbow.

i lead for 50 all fold to villian who makes it 150.
i call quickly.

turn comes 3 still rainbow.

i check, villian bets 400, i think for a minute and call.

river comes 9.

i check, villian takes a chip off his cards like he is going to check, i take my chip off my cards ready to showdown, he sees this and goes back to his stack.

he bets 700.

i call.

thoughts, comments?

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

I think you should rerais on the flop to 400 or so. I think It's important for you to find out if he is on a set, and this is the best way to do it. Otherwise you will be calling down large bets drawing very slim. As the hand played out, it seems like he diden't have the set you might be worried about, but reraising and then leading the turn for 5-600 (if he just calls on the flop) is what I would do. if he raises any of these bets again I think it's now a safe fold. This way you save the bet(or your stack) you might call on the river when you are beat. What do you guys think of this line?

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

if you wernt planning to call down, calling quickly on the flop was probably a mistake vs a good player. im sure you would give it a bit more thought with a set. by the end, he can pretty solidly put you on a mediocre 2 pair or possibly even JA, which is no good for you.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

I think you push the turn here. If you call, there is approx 1100 in the pot. Your allin raise is a nice 1.5x times the pot (approx.). I dont see how he can call. The only hand that scares you is 2,2 and that is very unlikely given his play - i.e., why would he try to push you off on the flop with 3 raggedly cards? I am guessing he has J,X, Q,Q or a mid-pair.

If you just call the turn, then there are a lot of cards you dont like to see on the river - any overcard or a 4.

Come to think of it, I would probably have reraised the flop given the shakey holdings.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

oops wrong hand

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

ok here is some of what i was thinking.
i didn't put villian on AJ because i had seen him try and clear the field of limpers earlier with a similar hand in position, so i didn't think he'd be limping with that.
therefore he either had me crushed with 2-2, or was drawing to three outs.
i was originally going to C/R the river but then when it came down to 400 for some reason i found myself calling. the stacks were still pretty deep, and i guess i was trying not to pot commit myself against the toughest opponent on the table, in an unraised pot, with motown.
i felt like if i C/R his bet he was dumping everything but 2-2, and since there were no draws i was worried about i decided on just calling. one thing i forgot to mention in the original post was that the villian was very capable of laying down big hands (not set big, but i'd seen him dump top two earlier) however other then the set there weren't really any hands i was too worried about.

on the river i thought about a blocking bet, however i decided that that would look to suspicous to this guy, who would probably tell i didn't like my hand too much.

i think the only reason he fired on the river was because he saw me take my chip off my cards prematurely.

does anyone like leading on the river trying to get a call from QJ or J10?

how about raising the river?

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

I think your analysis is pretty solid, however what would make you think that if he is the best player in the game, that he would decide to make a big bluff at you becuase you make a clear reverse tell of taking your chips off your cards?

I say he picked up 2 pair on the river holding 9-2, and thought he could suck a lot of money out of you if you slowplayed QQ, KK, AA or may still call suspecting a bluff on AJ or worse.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think your analysis is pretty solid, however what would make you think that if he is the best player in the game, that he would decide to make a big bluff at you becuase you make a clear reverse tell of taking your chips off your cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

the thing is it was a pretty unconscious action. he took his chips off his cards and i honestly thought he was about to showdown, i was not trying to give a reverse tell, and i didn't think he was making a bluff.

i didn't think he had a set, and at first i thought he had a hand like QJ or KJ, and was value betting becuase he would have thought that with two pair i would have taken a more aggressive line.

however at the last second it occured to me that he might have J9, and so i just called.

it turned out he had 5-2 for a smaller flopped two pair.

obviously in retrospect reraising the flop or turn would have won me a bigger pot, however by the time the river came i don't think he's paying me off if i move in.

but i honestly don't know.

i guess the reason for my post, is that i was kind of at a lost for the best line here, and kind of got sucked into a check call line, which i'm not sure was the best way to play.

alot of how i played this hand was due to the fact that i felt like i could outplay pretty much everyone else at the table, and i just didn't want to play a big pot vs. the one guy who was much better then me.

i know this is a crappy way to think, and i'm just wondering what i should have done, or what you guys do in similar spots with deep stacks vs. very tough opponents.

i feel like if i would have reraised the flop i would have either had to play for my stack or fold.

with his bottom two, i think if i reraise the flop he either smooth calls me and then puts me in on the turn, or puts me in on the flop right there, and then i'm in a really tough spot because i have to decide if he has the set.

i just didn't want to play a big pot vs him, and was trying to keep the pot as small as i could, despite my positional disadvantage.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

My other thoughts on this hand are that you have to remember to not get busted in an unraised pot. no way I'm committing $2.5K when I flop top 2 to a pot of $40... especially if you feel there are easier marks in the game than the pro.

You stress that there was only one player in the game you wanted to avoid ... and if you wanted to avoid him, why sit to his right?

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

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You stress that there was only one player in the game you wanted to avoid ... and if you wanted to avoid him, why sit to his right?

[/ QUOTE ]

first of all i was sitting to his left...hence him being on the button and me being in the BB.
secondly, you can't always pick where you sit in a live game when you arrive at a full table.


[ QUOTE ]
My other thoughts on this hand are that you have to remember to not get busted in an unraised pot. no way I'm committing $2.5K when I flop top 2 to a pot of $40... especially if you feel there are easier marks in the game than the pro.

[/ QUOTE ]

while i understand the idea of not wanting to go broke in an unraised pot, i most certainly am not going to avoid playing a big pot in an unraised pot when i feel i have the best of it, and the pot was not at $40 for very long. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

This is terrible advice against a strong tough tricky fold: play your hand in such a manner that he can bluff you with impunity on the river. This would make sense against someone (most of us) who don't have the guts to make a big river bluff against someone known to have a fairly strong hand, but isn't good advice against this player.

Making a play "to get information" only works if you won't get the info some other way, if the info is very reliable, AND the information is very useful. Against this kind of player the info isn't reliable.

- Louie

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Your main fear about playing against these really good folks is that he can put you on a hand better than most. Secondarily your fear is going to make you play more predictably which is good for him in general AND helps him read your hand even better. This means he's good at deducing your hand, especially with the moves-false-moves you described preceeding the river bet: that was a potential disaster for you. He could easily have deliberatly removed his chip just to get a reaction from you, which he got, and can more accurately deduce your holding.

Checking and calling this sort of aggressive player makes a lot of sense, so long as you know what to do if faced with a big all-in bet later. Against folks who bet more than they call, checking and calling generally works out better (so long, as I said, you aren't going to lose a great big pot later because if it). It turns out your fear caused you to underplay your hand which accidentally caused you to play the hand with the highest EV against this guy: he isn't going to call a turn raise with his bottom two pair.

- Louie

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Hi DanK,

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should rerais on the flop to 400 or so...reraising and then leading the turn for 5-600 (if he just calls on the flop) is what I would do.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent way to go broke against a set. If he does have a set, a good player with position obviously just calls on the flop, and probably on the turn, too. But even if he reveals himself on the turn, it has cost you about 800, and you didn't get to see his hand. Riverboat's line cost him 1100, if he was beaten, and he got to catch possible bluffs, and extract more against smaller hands who thought they were value betting.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Hi Utah,

[ QUOTE ]
I think you push the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. There's only one unlikely draw on the flop, so if you think your hand is good enough to push on the turn, push on the flop. Not that I think it is. Pushing the turn is a losing play in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
2,2...is very unlikely given his play - i.e., why would he try to push you off on the flop with 3 raggedly cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's a very good player, and he wants it to look like he's trying to push you off. He knows that he won't get paid off against a skilled opponent, unless they also have a very good hand, so he loses nothing by raising here. Well, he loses riverboat if he was semi-bluffing, but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.

What you're suggesting is to play a big pot with this hand, which I don't think you can profitably do against an expert who has position on you.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Hi riverboatking,

I was posting a long response, and the power went out, and I'm lazy. So here's a synopsis.

This is a tough hand to play, unless you read your opponent very well. And given your comments about him, that seems unlikely.

One important factor to consider is, would he play any 2 cards pre-flop? I do, when I think I'm the best at the table, and the game is passive. Two-pair is a 4 to 1 favorite mathematically, but if he'd only play J5, J2, and 52 if they were suited, it's very close. But, he might put you on just one good pair, and figure you won't see it all the way through. I wouldn't be surprised to see a set or a split here, because I think he needs to check behind with a smaller 2 pair.

The stuff on the river does indicate a value bet with 2 pair, if it's not an act. And since J9 is really unlikely, I like your chances.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

[ QUOTE ]
but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

who said he viewed me as a little weak-tight?
i don't think that was his picture of me at all.
while we hadn't really gotten involved in a pot together, my image is definately not one of weak tight.
first of all i'm the youngest player on the table (24), and as i mentioned in my original post, i have shown a willingness to semi-bluff.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Sorry, bud.

[ QUOTE ]
who said he viewed me as a little weak-tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I mixed it up with another post I'd just read. My point was that even though you'd shown a willingness to semi-bluff, there's only one or two hands to semi-bluff with on this flop, and I don't think he expects you to lead into the field with 43 or 64.

I've read the results now, and I agree with Louie that you accidentally maximized your EV, especially with the little move at the end. As I indicated in my first post to you, I think he has a pretty clear check on the end with bottom 2. I have no doubt that your willingness to get the hand over with led him to "value-bet" you on the end. And even with that info, if he thinks you're good, the only hands that he should expect to get called by and beat are overpairs (unlikely) and AJ, which many good players wouldn't call with in your spot.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, bud.
I think I mixed it up with another post I'd just read

[/ QUOTE ]

no prob.

yeah i think it was my unconcious river move that led him to "value bet", although that certainly was not my intention.

throughout the hand i just kept thinking about how good this guy was at laying down second best hands, and so i just couldn't see what point there was in raising as there were no draws i could put him on.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

villian in this hand...

Yet another "villian" thread? Perhaps any "definately" around for company [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]?

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Probably had jacks and decided whether to value bet or not, so I think in this case it was good that you decided to play meekly; that way you will also lose less vs a set.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

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No way. There's only one unlikely draw on the flop, so if you think your hand is good enough to push on the turn, push on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cant push the flop without massively overbetting the pot. However, I did advise reraising the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing the turn is a losing play in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

How so? What hands do you put him on? You are in favor of giving him a free shot at beating you on the river if he is behind. What happens when a scare card comes and you check and he scoots all his money into the middle?

As noted, the opponent is a better player with position. Pushing takes both those advantages away.

[ QUOTE ]
Because he's a very good player, and he wants it to look like he's trying to push you off. He knows that he won't get paid off against a skilled opponent, unless they also have a very good hand, so he loses nothing by raising here. Well, he loses riverboat if he was semi-bluffing, but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Respectfully, I disagree with this analysis. 2,2 is not impossible, but I still think it is very unlikely. The problem with the "he wants to look like he is trying to push you off" play is that it is far too likely that the bettor does not have a big enough hand to continue. Therefore, it is too likely to achieve exactly what wasnt intended - to cause the other player to fold, even if the original bettor suspects that is what the expert is doing.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

I was just checking to confirm your identity...

I thought I remembered that hand ... but I swear that he turned over 9-2.

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

[ QUOTE ]

How so? What hands do you put him on? You are in favor of giving him a free shot at beating you on the river if he is behind. What happens when a scare card comes and you check and he scoots all his money into the middle?

[/ QUOTE ]

what in your mind is a scare card?
a deuce is the only one i can think of...
in my original post i already explained why i didn't put him on AJ so a four doesn't bother me that much...

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

Hello,

I just found your comment on A,J. Sorry, I didnt see it because it was in a followup post by you. Just because he ran that play with the A,J once doesnt mean he runs it every time, especially if he was caught doing it once already.

Cards that I dont like are: K,Q,10,9,4 possibly an A (if he was on more or a bluff like A,5 or still the potential A,j). These cards all potentially give him a better hand. The worst thing though is that it puts you in a very difficult situation if he puts you to the test for all your money on the river when you have a hand that you might not be so comfortable with after the river card.

If you are uncomfortable going against this guy then I would rather be the one putting the test to him on the turn. With an allin bet you take any play out of him and I like the chances with the 2 pair.

Also, even if it is only a 3 outer, why give him a free shot at it on the turn? What does your turn call accomplish? I dont think a)dont want to play a big pot and b)worried about 2,2 are good enough reasons not to raise. Curious, what do you think he would have done if he were in your shoes?

Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are uncomfortable going against this guy then I would rather be the one putting the test to him on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

while i have the most respect for this guy out of everyone, if my cards warrant it i will go all in vs. anyone. it pretty much boils down to what play i think will win me the most money most of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, even if it is only a 3 outer, why give him a free shot at it on the turn? What does your turn call accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

as i mentioned earlier, this guy is damn good at reading hands, i think that a raise on the turn will only be called by a better hand (looking to trap me), while there is a good chance i may be raised by a weaker hand (forcing me to lay down a winner).
i think a smooth call on the turn disgues the strength of my hand effectively, as most players would reraise with two pair.

i know that from playing online, alot of players have been conditioned to go to extremes in order to avoid giving free cards, even when in all likelihood there are only two or three cards that can hurt you.

[ QUOTE ]
The worst thing though is that it puts you in a very difficult situation if he puts you to the test for all your money on the river when you have a hand that you might not be so comfortable with after the river card.

[/ QUOTE ]

in this case if i smooth call, he still has no idea what i have, and in most cases i will not be facing a huge overbet on the river, but rather a value bet, either from a worse hand which he thinks is good, or from a better hand looking to get paid.

if i reraise the turn, the pot is now much bigger on the river, and now i face a much tougher decision.

i agree that there is more then one way to play a pot, especally in this case, which is why i posted the hand.
and i appreciate all the response, i am by no means trying to degrade your opinions, or suggest that my line is superior, just trying to delve deeper into what i feel is an interesting discussion.

Some EV Calculations
 

I agree that this hand is very interesting and I might have been wrong.

I spent an hour running some EV calculations and it favors only calling on the turn.

Here are my basic assumptions:

His hand 2,2 = 30%
His hand two pair = 10%
His hand = 1 pair = 60%
He folds to a move in bet on the turn with less than trips
He doesnt bet the river with less that 2 pair
he bets the river with 2 pair 50% time

Lets look at the simpliest case first:

You move in on the turn:
If he folds 70% of the time = +$770 for you
If he calls with trips 30% of the time = -$1400 for you (calculated as +2800*.09 + -1800*.91)

EV = $350 for you

Now lets look at the more complex case if you just call:

A) He has one pair. He hits .07 percent of the time. Lets say he bets pot when he does hits and he checks behind you when he doesnt hit. Lets assume you call when he bets. This leads to an EV of 950 (1100*.93 + -1100*.07).

b) He has trips. You hit your 4 outer .09 percent of the time. Lets assume all the money goes in when you do. Lets assume that you dont hit and he bets pot and you call. This is -750 = .91*-1100 + .09*2800

c) Lets say he has two pair. This is the most complex because he can hit his discreet two outer, you can hit your discreet two outer, or you can both hit the common two outer. Additionally, he might bet his two pair when you both miss (I figured 50% of the time given he was right on the cusp of whether to bet). I will leave out all the calculations (I can supply them if you want) but I come up with an EV of +$1400

So, total EV = .6*950 + .3*-750 + .1*1400 = $485

However, if he can outplay you then moving in on the turn might be better. For example if he is capable of pushing you off on the river with an allin bet or if he is capable of getting away from his set when you hit your 4 outer.

Also, I was pretty liberal with his odds of having a set. If you get to around 15% the EVs wash.

Re: Some EV Calculations
 

I've been gone for a couple days so I'm replying before I read any of the other posts (sorry if I say something that someone else already mentioned).

I absolutely cannot believe you just flat-called him after he saw what you did on the river and made that bet. There's no way in hell you're trailing after he sees you ready to showdown and then makes a huge bet. If he has 2-2, he's value betting the river no matter what (and in this spot it looked like he was genuinely about to check). It looks like he has a garbage two-pair and has put you on J, good kicker. I know it sounds risky as hell, but based on his actions, I'd re-raise all in on the river (I think J-9 or a set is very, very unlikely).