TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

15-30 in the cutoff with Ak spades with 6 other opponents. I raised all six called. Flop was QJ2 one spade. It was checked to me one off button and i bet hoping to get a free card on turn and the fact that my hand could be the best hand. The reason i am posting this is after telling this hand to a friend of mine who plays for a living said it was an ill advised bet. I told him his play was weak(and scard poker) to not bet cause his reasoning is he couldnt have the best hand most of the time and didnt want to be charged more than necessary to draw. He then said there was chance to get free card but it was on flop when only one left to act behind. And trying for free card on turn wouldnt work often enough to bet into 6 others on a QJ2 flop which is a flop that will usually hit alot of opponents. And could get checkraised or worse very easily and get caught in a whipsaw on flop when i could have easily checked the flop. Which is correct play?

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

vince haven't really played limit for 2 years but seems to me there are too many bets in the pot not to bet your overcards and gutshot and backdoor draw there. that's more important than getting a free card, although that can be a nice side benefit. you at least want all the medium/little connector hands and king-little and ace-little out.

matt

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Vince,

Since you are going to the river with your hand I can see your friend's point of view of trying to get there for the minimum price. However given the size of the pot and the strength of your hand I like betting this flop (especially since you believe there is a chance that you may be able to take a free card on the turn).

-- Manzanita

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I don't like the bet here, particularly if there was a two flush. With 6 callers for 2-bets PF and QJ flop you will almost never have the best hand and will likely not even have your fair share of pot equity (your overcards make too many likely straights). Wouldn't it make you sick to have it be 3-4 bets back to you? Also, I can't see why it would help to get Kx and Ax out now since they may bet into you on the turn (if an A or K turns) and you can pop it if nobody else has yet. I also might pop it if a spade comes on the turn (and obviously if a 10 falls).

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I think the best way to explain it to your friend would be to post another AK hand with an entirely different set of circumstances on 2+2 where betting is a much better option and hope that no one recognizes it as such.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I like betting here: you might clean up some outs, get a free card, make more money if you hit. If you get check-raised well heck, you are going to the river anyway barring extreme circumstances, and there are already so many bets in the pot that I don't think being scared of a wittle bitty check-raise should be a major concern.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Hi Vince,

It would help a bit more to have player or game type descriptions.

If(A) you believe you could get smaller pairs or gutshots that hurt your A or K outs to fold, giving you a better shot at winning a biggish pot plus a good chance of getting a free card on the turn, then betting is fine.

If(B), you have a bunch of guys that are going to call you no matter what, then you may want to consider checking now.

If A is closer then betting is better. If B is closer then checking is better.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

If(B), you have a bunch of guys that are going to call you no matter what, then you may want to consider checking now.

I think the types of players that like to check/call on this flop also like to check to the flop bettor on the turn.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

In the Californa Mid-Limit games I play in, weak gutshots ALWAYS call 1 SB for a 12 SB pot. The problem with betting is not merely having it check raised, but having multiple opponents just waiting to pounce on your bet. So if the game was typically aggressive, on a QJ flop, it seems fairly likely to me that it would be 3-bets back to you unless you for some reason can pick up on tells from multiple players that they have lost interest in the hand . And now this hand really becomes interesting... do you have the discipline to muck? As a side note, I think relying on these types of tells is dangerous because often when you pick up on them one or more of your more astute opponents also does and therefore you risk being C/R by a hand that might not have wanted to previously.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

[ QUOTE ]
If(B), you have a bunch of guys that are going to call you no matter what, then you may want to consider checking now.

I think the types of players that like to check/call on this flop also like to check to the flop bettor on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats fine. The ideal situation is you clear the field of hands that hurt your outs, and keep in hands that you have beat, or can cleanly draw to beat. The turn will determine whether or not you take a freebie or bet for value.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

[ QUOTE ]
you at least want all the medium/little connector hands and king-little and ace-little out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you actually want those hands out. You just want to charge them for drawing to runner-runner or at best 3 outs.

EDIT: maybe you do want the three-outers to fold, although I doubt that pairing a little card will win a showdown given this board.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Hi Vince,

I love you, but I don't love your play here. I am siding with your friend's analysis on this one. The other posters have mentioned the reasons for checking. I would only add that I doubt your Ace high is the best hand with both a Q and J onboard.

Sounds like a frisky game and hope you won a bundle.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I like the bet here. You have good value of your hand, and can withstand lots of action on the flop. Plus, you may get a free card on the turn. If you were already last, then it's close, though I still like betting, because you'll still get a free card on the turn often enough. You are correct, Vince. Stop listening to those locals.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

With six opponents on this coordinated board, there is a very good chance that you will get checkraised. I would take the free card (with infinite odds), and if you spike a 10 on the turn, there will undoubtedly be heavy action.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Hi Vince, I like a bet here. You will get the turn free card more often than most people expect, and an early position check-raiser might just clear up your over card outs if he has some sort of average kickered queen. So I say bet and see what happens because you've got a ton of redraws even if you are behind.
-James

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

No votes for pot building? (not saying that's where I am at, just asking)

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

One thing about betting the flop is it will tend to make the hand play more straight-forward. I guess in Las Vegas this is less important since the play more straight forward, anyway. For example, in CA, if you check, on the turn a rag comes, someone may bet 88, and someone with J4s will raise. You may have to fold because you think you have only four outs when you really have 10. In Las Vegas they play a lot more passive, especially at this limit, so the guy with the J4s may fold or just call. I don't even know if they play J4s there.

It was nice seeing you at Raymer's thing at the Bike. Oh yeah, you didn't show up.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Vince your hand is a little stronger than an OESD. I'd bet an OESD just about 110% off the time here. If I get a free card on the turn that's gravy. Of course I reserve the right to bet the turn also.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I am not sure that a check on the flop follwed by a ten on the turn will lead to heavy action - in fact, the check might inhibit it.

Note: The above is just a passing comment. I don't mean to suggest that Vince should bet the flop in order not to inhibit heavy turn action if he catches a ten.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I would be in this hand until the turn regardless of the action with a 4 bet cap, as in California. In Vegas, I may end up folding, but not likely. I play these California games, and betting is correct 1000% of the time here.

FWIW, if you have a gutshot and are getting 12-1, it's an easy call. On the flop, you will often call getting less than that, usually when you close the action or you know whne you're gonna get paid well. You have some things to learn, it appears.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Yeah, what he said. Do you actually live inside my poker brain? Kind of scary, dude. Scary, indeed.

Re: do not bet
 

you have 6 opponents, you are not best, and even if you hit one of your overcards how often does 1 pair hold up with this many seeing the flop? common limping hands are qj, aj, kj, etc. you could hit an overcard and easily lose. add to that that if a K comes it puts KQJ on the board vs 6 opponents. you have a backdoor nut flush draw and a inside str8 to the nut str8. so take the free card, but do not give someone with an open ended draw, 2 pair, or the unlikely set, the chance to charge you 2 bets. the flop missed you, your getting the right price to call one bet, but you are in trouble here and betting a hand that looked great preflop, into 6 postflop opponents is not good poker.

Easy Bet
 

Vince if you posted this ?, it makes me think that you think its an easy bet aswell, but respect the person who said check. Personally I would bet 100% of time here in that game, no ifs ands or buts about it.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

felson,

one flip here is average # of callers and average true outs. maybe 7-8 on average counting the runner-runner as 1-1.5? if he gets 2 callers he gives up next to nothing by betting, even if check-raised. so unless he gets check-raised and no one else calls, he on average gives up little by betting and therefore should bet right? sure he might be dominated for all but 5-5.5 outs, but what if he's not? the chances of him having the best hand are small, but is that 4% small? even 4% makes the bet clear because of the pot size and his outs. and blowing little hands out gives him a percent or two each. just seems you add all those up with a 12-bet pot and you really should bet. more i think about it the more it seems nearly a small-bet sized error to check (much bigger than i thought at first). but it's been a long time since i thought limit.

matt

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I'd bet and hope one of the next two players to act did check-raise.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

[ QUOTE ]
Vince your hand is a little stronger than an OESD. I'd bet an OESD just about 110% off the time here. If I get a free card on the turn that's gravy. Of course I reserve the right to bet the turn also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Against 6 players the OESD is stronger than a gutshot and overcards. Against 1 or 2 opponents, you hand would be better.

Re: do not bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
you have 6 opponents, you are not best, and even if you hit one of your overcards how often does 1 pair hold up with this many seeing the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Less often than most people seem to think. He's got four clean outs. This dogma about "cleaning up outs" isn't really applicable against six opponents with two connected board cards in the playing zone. Hit your ace or king and see how often at least one opponent has two pair or a straight. Also, if he bets, it's going to be two, three or four bets back to him a fair percentage of the time.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW, if you have a gutshot and are getting 12-1, it's an easy call. On the flop, you will often call getting less than that, usually when you close the action or you know whne you're gonna get paid well. You have some things to learn, it appears.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm.. Well I certainly have lots to learn or else I wouldn't be on here, but I think you misread what I wrote. If you are referring to my line that typical players in CA mid-limit games ALWAYS call getting 12 to 1 on a weak gutshot, I don't think you realize that nearly applies to me! I only muck when I am fairly certain it will be raised and reraised behind me (and I'm not playing cards that make a weak gutshot on a QJ flop up front anyway).

So the bet really depends on the texture of the game, but I just think you have to be cautious in a typically aggressive game. Say you bet here, the button raises, the SB 3-bets, and it is folded back to you. You aren't getting 12 to 1 at all, now...try 9 to 1 with a great possibility of it being capped behind you and likely heavy action to come on the turn. If you miss the turn, you will be in a major predicament, being trapped by two people with made hands that want you out. Now if the game is more passive than my usual games, this may be an obvious bet.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Vince, a bet is so clearly correct to me that I will feel a severe nausia until I find out that you also strongly agree a check is correct.

-Ezcheeze

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

what gives

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

err I meant "agree a bet is correct". See how this is already affecting my vision?

-Ezcheeze

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Hi a couple buddies of mine and me read you reply and ended up in heated discussion to its meaning so if you could bare with me and answer a question you could solve our debate.

Here goes. When you use the phrase less important is there a difference in the importance in las vegas as to the difference in LA. Another words they are arguing that there is no difference in importance to you from you betting in LA as opposed to vegas. I said there is a difference in importance in your opinion that's why you said it less important. You even showed the reasoning why its more important in LA to bet cause could get played off on turn and less important in vegas. So when you wrote less important was that to mean the same importance as in LA or to mean what it actually said which was that you felt it less important in vegas. Thanks in advance for your help.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

I don't really understand your question.

I didn't mean to say that betting was more important, in this case overall, in CA. I just meant betting would probably make the hand play more straight forwardly, in CA. Betting in this case, could be just as important or more important, in LV, because it is more likely that a better hand will fold.

What I meant to say was, it is less important to do something, in Las Vegas, to make a hand play more straight forwardly. In CA, it is often a good idea, to do something to get the hand to play more straight forwardly. (In CA, as a rule, the players play trickier than the players do in LV. Often you would like them to play less tricky. Other times, you don't care. In fact, sometimes you may want them to play more tricky. In this case, I think you want them to play less tricky.)

I hope this answers your question. I've read it a few times, and I still don't know what it means. Maybe I should call a couple of my buddies and we could argue about it.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Good foresight.

The other reason to bet is that you may not get checkraised by a player near to your right even if he flopped a Queen or a Jack. i.e. you bet and a couple of guys to your left call with weak draws, strong draws...whatever. Now, the guy with JT or KQ or AJ may only overcall as opposed to checkraising. You are then in good position to take a free card on the turn if you so desire.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Actualy you confused me more lol. The jist of the argument was they were arguing that your statement of less important in no way meant that betting in LA was more important in your opinion than betting in vegas. I said if the importance was the same why would you say its less important and point out examples why it was more important in LA.

No right answer
 

Sometimes you should take the free card and sometimes you should bet instead of letting everyone know you missed.

Saying any answer to this question is so clear cut, with this hand and this many people in the pot, I think is narrowing poker strategy down a little too much. Situations like this are rarely that simple.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Ok, that's the ideal situation, but can you name one hand that will be folded for 1 bet that would somehow be hurting your outs? Unless of course, you mean that someone will check-raise you knocking those hands out and improving your chances of winning with a pair of aces or kings. To be honest I doubt if anyone will dump a hand like that for two bets, at least in most CA games.

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Hi Chizoad,

Perhaps a hand like A-10, or A-2 suited drops. Maybe a pair of 6's and 7's drops when someone c/r's, and I get it heads up on the river with a draw like K-10 and my AK holds up. By reading the vegas folks posts, they're dropping because they put you on a big pair, since none of them want to bet AK or expect someone to bet AK. I know lots of players that proudly fold better hands here. I also know a few that C/R and some that bet out. This is a situation where you may have to get a few players out one street at a time. If they don't fold, a chance at free pass to the river is reason enough to bet.
The only situation I come up with where a check is good here, is in a situation where the players are bad and will not fold. In that case you'ld just be wasting chips by betting into a field of callers, as oppossed to taking free cards and value betting when and if you catch.

Re: No right answer
 

This is a situation where the vast majority of the time betting is correct and rarely other factors than what have been given will sway you into checking. Against complete unknowns I would always bet. It's like raising pocket aces preflop. Almost always it's correct but sometimes you have a high chance for a limp reraise so you don't raise. The few exceptions to betting in our case have basically been outlined in other posts: only if it's somehow extremely likely it will be 2 bets or more back to you. The only way I can see this being extremely likely is if either you have a tell or your opponents are willing to check-raise and check-reraise with very weak hands.

-Ezcheeze

Re: TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND
 

Your friends are right, so pay up.