What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Abdul Jalib says that having everyone fold to your preflop AA raise is a "statistical disaster." This implies that you want some callers, but do you really want everyone to call? Doesn't that mean that there are probably too many drawing hands out there? If thats the case, then in a ten person "typical" game there should be a theoretical ideal number of callers, correct? If not, why? If so, how many?

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

in a 10 handed limit hold em ring game, i would like precisely 9 callers...

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Well is there a theoretical number of best callers, and if so, is that it?

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Did you miss thirddan's reply? You want all the callers you can get.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

You can pretty much give the other 9 players any cards but one with AA, and you are still going to make out better than 1 player folding with the best of those 9 hands.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

If you can get all the money in preflop, then you definitely everyone to play with you. The same is probably true if the preflop action is capped.

On the other hand, if you raise UTG and everybody calls, and then the BB is a decent player and holds 22, then I would prefer that BB fold. BB will only give you postflop action if he flops a set, and he has the pot odds to do it. He would be making a mistake to fold, and that's a mistake I want him to make.

But don't let this deter you. With aces you want as much money in preflop as possible, from as money people as possible. Most of the time people will be facing off against you with worse hands than pocket pairs. So raise, raise, raise, and be happy when people put their chips in the middle.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Abdul Jalib says that having everyone fold to your preflop AA raise is a "statistical disaster." This implies that you want some callers, but do you really want everyone to call?

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Yes.

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Doesn't that mean that there are probably too many drawing hands out there?

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No. AA welcomes action from drawing hands in limit holdem - they don't hit nearly often enough to make up for the two preflop bets they have to call.


[ QUOTE ]
If thats the case, then in a ten person "typical" game there should be a theoretical ideal number of callers, correct? If not, why? If so, how many?

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I'd prefer nine callers. AA wins around one third of the time against nine random hands - in EV terms, that's much better than winning 85% of the time against one random hand.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Good. Thanks guys.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I doubt you could lose money playing low liimts and raise AA at every street and never fold.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Is 25 callers suboptimal? 25BB is a pretty nice sized pot, but not the biggest I've ever seen. If the floor man is going to insist on dealing board cards, that means you can only get 22 callers at most. How does AA do against 22 random hands? let me see if I can get two dimes to do this.

It looks like twodimes doesn't like dealing more than 12 hands of holdem:

Holdem Hi: 98280 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 69052 70.26 28732 29.23 496 0.50 0.703
Qs Qc 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
Qd Qh 1840 1.87 95944 97.62 496 0.50 0.019
Js Jc 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
Jd Jh 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
Ts Tc 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
Td Th 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
9s 9c 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
9d 9h 0 0.00 97784 99.50 496 0.50 0.000
8s 8c 0 0.00 96112 97.79 2168 2.21 0.009
8d 8h 48 0.05 96064 97.75 2168 2.21 0.009
7s 7c 25172 25.61 72612 73.88 496 0.50 0.257

As Ac
Qc Qs
Qh jd
jc js
jh qd
tc ts
th td
9c 9s
9h 9d
8c 8s
8h 8d
7c 7s
7h 7d
6h 6d
6c 6s
5c 5s
5h 5d
4c 4s
4h 4d
3c 3s
3h 3d
2c 2s
2h 2d

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=606867
pokenum -h as ac - qc qs - qh jd - jc js - jh qd - tc ts - th td - 9c 9s - 9h 9d - 8c 8s - 8h 8d - 7c 7s - 7h 7d - - 6h 6d - 6c 6s - - 5c 5s - 5h 5d - 4c 4s - 4h 4d - 3c 3s - 3h 3d - 2c 2s - 2h 2d
usage: ./pokenum [-t] [-mc niter] [-h|-h8|-o|-o8|-7s|-7s8|-7snsq|-r|-5d|-5d8|-5dnsq|-l|-l27]
- - ... [ -- ] [ / ] ]

not even when I mix up the hands a little bit. need to find another plan of attack.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I would say that 25 callers is optimal. With 0 cards to come the worst you can do is chop 52SB with the other AA, but the chances that both aces have been dealt to one player are pretty tiny.

I'm not sure what the odds are against 22 other players, but I'm sure they're still in your favor for a huge +EV

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Abdul Jalib says that having everyone fold to your preflop AA raise is a "statistical disaster." This implies that you want some callers, but do you really want everyone to call? Doesn't that mean that there are probably too many drawing hands out there? If thats the case, then in a ten person "typical" game there should be a theoretical ideal number of callers, correct? If not, why? If so, how many?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was a post in the um.. recent past, maybe... where somebody ran numbers for something like a 20 handed HE game.

AA was still tops on EV. The suited broadway cards went way up in value here, but if I recall correctly, AA and KK were still tops.

So, the number of callers you want is merely dictated by bankroll and your risk profile. If you've got a proper roll, then the answer is: as many as you think you can get that are easy to play after the flop against.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

22

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Screw callers, I want those 9 in there with it capped!!!

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

The best situation is when everyone calls. Yes, you can contrive an example where AA is the underdog against the field, but in general they'll have each other's cards.

Think about it. If everyone is in with "reasonable" hands, some hand MUST be THEY favorite. Which hand is it? JTs? 94s? 33? No, its AA.

- Louie

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

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I doubt you could lose money playing low liimts and raise AA at every street and never fold.

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SOOOOO WRONG!!!! What's the difference between losing a lot of money in high limits to that in low limits.... Losing half my stack in 3/6 because I overplayed AA is not something I like to do.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I doubt you could lose money playing low liimts and raise AA at every street and never fold.

If you mean lose money with AA, I don't know for sure, but you're probably wrong.

If you mean lose money overall, I think you're very wrong.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt you could lose money playing low liimts and raise AA at every street and never fold.

If you mean lose money with AA, I don't know for sure, but you're probably wrong.

If you mean lose money overall, I think you're very wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he meant AA every hand, and you always raised/reraised with it. At least thats how I read it.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I think a lot of the posts here are missing the real point of the question. Certainly AA always has the most pot equity, and therefore wants the biggest possible pot preflop. But when you're trying to figure out the optimal number of callers, a better chance at taking down a smaller pot.

For example, lets say, for the sake of argument, AA is 30 percent to win against 9 random hands and 60 percent to win against 4 random hands. Assume you can count on no limpers folding to your raise.

With 9 callers, you will have ten big bets in the pot on the flop. Assuming the players play somewhat reasonably, players who miss the flop entirely (no pair and no draw) are going to fold to a bet on the flop. So say you get 5 calls on the flop (13BBs), three on the turn and 2 on the river (18BBs), which you will expect to win about 30 percent of the time (6BB)

On the other hand, say you have 4 callers to a preflop raise. You will start with 5 BBs. Assume 3 flop callers (7BBs), 2 turn callers (10BBs) and 1 river caller (12BBs). If you win this 60 percent of the time, then you actually have a higher EV with fewer callers.

jc

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Its easy to make up reasonable assumuptions that support the position, one way or the other.

Anyway, I strongly suspect that the "optimal" number of callers would be very influenced by Hero's ability to handle the callers: if hero can "outplay" 3 callers with clever check-raises, slow-plays, or free cards but cannot "outplay" 6, such as routinely checking when a "scare" card comes, then the optimal number is probably lower for hero than for some other folks.

- Louie

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

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If you mean lose money with AA, I don't know for sure, but you're probably wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming your opponents aren't psychic and know you're doing this, he's not wrong.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Depends what you mean by "theoretical". If you want to get abstract, it does have a max, but it's definitely gotta be higher than 10. For example, if you were playing from some gigantic deck of cards in a huge ring game, eventually a hand like AA isn't going to be good enough, because it can't make a straight flush (with both cards.)

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I don't know about the rest of you but I don't care much about the pot equity with AA. I just want to win the godamn pot, because it's such a hard hand to get away from and it comes around so rarely--it's a highly psychologically difficult hand to play correctly. Ergo, I want few people in there and I don't want any fuss. It's just one pair, after all. So I prefer no more than 2-3 people in the pot with me. Any more than that and I feel extremely vulnerable with AA.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
For example, lets say, for the sake of argument, AA is 30 percent to win against 9 random hands and 60 percent to win against 4 random hands. Assume you can count on no limpers folding to your raise.

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30% of 9 will always be more than 60% of 4.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Abdul Jalib stated that AA is worth about 4BB. It's also known to be a fairly bad idea to slowplay AA preflop, as that can lead to someone drawing 2 pair with crap on the flop, and we all know how much we can lose when 74o two-pairs on the flop and we keep pushing our AA. So the theoretical breakeven point would be to raise AA preflop and as long as we receive at least 2 callers (4BB), we're still good and there's much less chance a flop like K74 rainbow will kill us as someone with 74o is unlikely to call our raise. And for the others, yes AA will beat out most hands 33% of the time, but the other 66% of the time, it will lose more than twice as much money as it wins that one time. I have no empirical proof of this though, anyone willing to run a simulation would be nice.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

22

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Perhaps, your question needs to be restated. The answer is simple even to a beginner like me. You have the best starting hand. You want as much money is in ASAP. The question I think you might really be asking is (and I have the same quesion) how many do you want after that? Of course, it depends on the flop, etc. But it is a general question you are asking as I understand it.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Opponents, percentage won, estimated pot equity (assuming same number of bets per player):
1 85.3 1.704
2 73.4 2.202
3 63.9 2.556
4 55.9 2.795
5 49.2 2.952
6 43.6 3.052
7 38.8 3.104
8 34.7 3.123
9 31.1 3.110

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Here is a gut answer for you, not a statistical answer.

If I raise UTG with AA I am happy to see 2 or 3 callers, very happy to see a 3 bet/cap. With 4 or more callers I get a little uneasy.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

You know, aside from mine, thats the first sensible post ive seen on this topic. I would still agrue for less than 8, because i think the same number of bets per player assumption skews the results a little, as well as the fact that the chart assumes random hands (i assume) rather than likely callers (note that the edge between 6 and 8 callers is pretty thin).


[ QUOTE ]
Opponents, percentage won, estimated pot equity (assuming same number of bets per player):
1 85.3 1.704
2 73.4 2.202
3 63.9 2.556
4 55.9 2.795
5 49.2 2.952
6 43.6 3.052
7 38.8 3.104
8 34.7 3.123
9 31.1 3.110

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I have to disagree, you don't want 9 callers, your chances of winning that pot have greatly diminished. I think you want 1 or 2 callers w/ hands with small pairs and A-x. If you have one guy call w/ a suited connected it's fine, but when you have 5 callers w/ suited connectors, chances are, one of them will hit. That's my opinion if you're talking about one specific hand w/ aces. But i'm sure you're looking at the %'s, and sure, if you deal me AA 100,000 hands in a row, I would want 9 callers. But in the real world, I don't think you do.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have to disagree, you don't want 9 callers, your chances of winning that pot have greatly diminished. I think you want 1 or 2 callers w/ hands with small pairs and A-x. If you have one guy call w/ a suited connected it's fine, but when you have 5 callers w/ suited connectors, chances are, one of them will hit. That's my opinion if you're talking about one specific hand w/ aces. But i'm sure you're looking at the %'s, and sure, if you deal me AA 100,000 hands in a row, I would want 9 callers. But in the real world, I don't think you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sense does that make? If you'd want it for 100,000 hands in a row, then you want it, period. The only time your comment is applicable in the "real world" is in a tournament, where you might get kicked out. In ring games, you can't get kicked out. And you're playing long term percentages, so of course you want more callers. Who cares if your chance of winning the pot is only 20%? That's awesome when you only put 10% of the money in there.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

No question you don't want that many callers. If even five people call a raise and you don't hit your ace on the flop, then there is a very serious chance you may get beaten on a draw, by two-pair, or even a set. From my personal experience I would say that in a ten-handed game you would probably want 3 callers, TOPS. Provided the flop isn't dangerous (i.e. K-K-x, Q-Q-x, J-Q-K, etc.) you can then bet big and hope to scare off everyone else, or isolate just you and another player, who, depending on the turn, you can hopefully get to put all their chips in.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

going by the results of your statistics. It would seem that 2 or 3 callers would be the optimal amount. Assuming the pot equity is in BB. For 100 times with AA, you'll bring in 161.6268BB and 163.3284BB for 2 and 3 callers respectively. So 3 callers is the slight favourite to 2.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Unless your postflop skills absolutely suck, the more callers the better. (In a ring game at least). It's not an opinion question. Unless there is another pair of aces out there, which there aren't, aces make money with EVERY bet players put into the pot before the flop. It's true that with 2 or 3 callers you win more pots, but you win less money that way too.
Sheesh.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Yes, but perhaps in your gigantic deck of cards it can make seven aces....

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's true that with 2 or 3 callers you win more pots, but you win less money that way too.
Sheesh.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems to come round so often in this forum we should make it a sticky.

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

Then there would be a barrage of posts along the lines of "I know there was a sticky about this, but..." [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

And you're multiplying pot equity by %age to win... why? The former already takes into account the latter. PE is your %age to win multiplied by the size of the pot.

jc

[ QUOTE ]
going by the results of your statistics. It would seem that 2 or 3 callers would be the optimal amount. Assuming the pot equity is in BB. For 100 times with AA, you'll bring in 161.6268BB and 163.3284BB for 2 and 3 callers respectively. So 3 callers is the slight favourite to 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: What is the best theoretical number of preflop callers to AA?
 

I disagree with your last statement in this case. With two or three callers you win more money. You'll win a higher percentage of hands, the goal will be to maximize the win percentage and the amount won. According to the statistics. That would be with 2 or 3 callers. Let's also not forget that with the times we lose with many callers, there's a likelihood that we'd have put more money in the pot (because most people figure their aces CAN'T lose) than in the situations where we do hold up. What I'm saying is that on average (I think) we lose more when we overplay AA against many callers than we win when it holds up.