Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

In the WPT Finals at Bellago. OK I don't know the dates but it's the one where the last three are Philips, Hansen and Tomko. Hansen has 2.3M, Philips 2.8M and Tomko has 800k.

I ragged on Philips about this situation last year. I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that but I wonder which made the bigger mistake. For those of you that didn't see the hand:

blinds were T25-50K.

sb: Phillips T2.8M
bb: Tomko T800k
button: Hansen T2.3M

Hansen: TT, Raise T250K
Phillips: All-in T2.8M
Tomko: fold
Hansen: Call.

The only play that I think was correct was Tomko's fold. I also believe that Hansen's call was a bigger mistake than Phillips move in. Anyone agree? Why?

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

well its hard to say who made the bigger mistake since i don't know what PP had here.
but i can comment on what each player might have been thinking.
while i don't know the exact payout structure i'm assuming there is a pretty significant jump in prize money between 2nd and 3rd place.

with that in mind PP (paul phillips) probably knows that gus can't call an all in without a premimum hand due to the fact that dewey is so short stacked. pp may then try and steal from gus so that he can increase his chip lead and have a greater shot at winning the title, which we know is pp main goal.

now gus may know this fact and therefore put pp on a wider range of hands and therefore decide that he has way the best of it and call, knowing that if he wins he is virtually assured first place.

it is very possible that in this situation neither player made a mistake whatsoever.

pp knows that it will be hard for gus to call in that spot without aa or kk and gus knows pp knows this so he calls w/10-10.

by the way what did pp have i never saw the episode.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow that's cute when david does it. With you, the effect is to prove you should keep your psychiatrist on speed-dial.

Re: paul?
 

just curious....what did you have? and how did the hand play out?

Re: paul?
 

Paul had AQ... That was one of the more memorable hands from last year.

I don't see how anyone can criticize Paul's play here, or Mr. Hansen's for that matter. Paul's AQ figures to be good against a wide range of Gus' holdings, and his extreme overbet might even get Gus to fold some of the hands that are ahead, especially ones that have a significant preflop edge.

I'm not sure of any better way to play that hand in Paul's situation. Calling out of position seems pretty weak, especially for a big stack. Re-raising could be dangerous as well, given Gus could very well move in with a smaller ace..

As far as Gus goes, I guess he could have folded to the allin, but the way Paul appeared to be playing Gus that evening, I don't think you can fault him for taking the chance. Plus, if I recall correctly, Paul had position on Gus for 2/3 of 3 handed play..

But hey what do I know? I haven't come close to the pressure of a 10k event, let alone one that is being televised.

That episode was the best to date IMO. I only wish we could have seen all the hands..

Re: paul?
 

I think the play was fine. Neither player at this point could put the other on a dominating hand when playing three handed. My question is - what are the blind and ante sizes? Was Tomko in a desparate situation with only $800,000? If not, Tomko can wait for a chance to double through and it would be anyone's game. I don't think this is similar to what happened at the Bellagio last week with the Phams and Mortensen with regards to moving up the prize ladder.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

who made you the authority on good or bad plays?
where can i get your book?
if you think there was no chance hansen was ahead you're wrong(a chance he was up against a smaller pocket pair). if you dont think aq is a pretty good hand 3 handed you're also wrong.
you probably play 5 - 10 limit at most.
i guess you will say they should have waited for the short stack to bust but not all that inciteful.

Re: paul?
 

I think the blinds were 50K/100K with a 10K ante, giving Dewey Tomko about 8xBB-- Hansen and Phillips could probably have guaranteed themselves 1st and 2nd if they specifically aimed to knock out the short stack. As it was, they both wanted 1st badly enough to get involved in a race situation that would result in one of them entering the headup portion with a huge chip advantage and the other going home in 3rd place. For what its worth (i.e. not much given my low stakes/low experience situation), I don't think either of them played it badly.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

I think they both played it well. Paul has been coming over the top of Gus regularly and while there is always a slight chance that he will run into a monster, with Gus's opening standards he is very likely to have the best hand or a coinflip and unlikely to be dominated. Gus will probably have to lay down but if he dosent Paul will still usually be in OK shape. With as much pressure as hes been putting on gus, and guss' penchant for not likeing to get pushed around he may even get called by a weaker hand. I also think Gus made a big league call there. He (i think correctly) realized that he needed to draw a line in the sand or pp would continue to take pot after pot away from him.
It should also be mentioned that neither of these players is likely to be playing the move up the ladder game. While im sure they both are not trying to maximize their expectation they are trying to win the tournament(the ev is a little hazy in these situations with the extra money people winning WPT events stand to possibly make)
Anyhow, there certainly are other ways to play this hand but i think the way it was played was a resonable choice for two players focused on winning the tournament.
matty

An aside...Tomko
 

Tomko seems to often end up on the short stack late in tournaments. Anyone more familiar with his play have an idea why?

Do you ever play short-handed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In the WPT Finals at Bellago. OK I don't know the dates but it's the one where the last three are Philips, Hansen and Tomko. Hansen has 2.3M, Philips 2.8M and Tomko has 800k.

I ragged on Philips about this situation last year. I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that but I wonder which made the bigger mistake. For those of you that didn't see the hand:

blinds were T25-50K.

sb: Phillips T2.8M
bb: Tomko T800k
button: Hansen T2.3M

Hansen: TT, Raise T250K
Phillips: All-in T2.8M
Tomko: fold
Hansen: Call.

The only play that I think was correct was Tomko's fold. I also believe that Hansen's call was a bigger mistake than Phillips move in. Anyone agree? Why?

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Paul and Gus both played correctly.

Gus raised 3 handed with TT like anyone would.

Paul put him on an underpair or a typical Gus BS hand, and raised all in. This is a standard play three-handed. Paul is only behind AK, AA, KK and QQ. Gives Paul 2 chances to win - Gus folds, or Paul wins a coin flip.

If Paul just calls, he misses 2 flops out of 3 and will be forced to fold to a Gus bet, and Gus is first to act. If Paul reraises 750K, Gus would either go all in or call, and Paul has the flop problem again.

Gus correctly put Paul on overcards and not an overpair, and was getting 6-5 pot odds in a hand in which he was a 11-9 favorite.

Where is the mistake?

Re: Do you ever play short-handed?
 

I think you oversimplify when you say Gus put Paul on overcards. If Paul has overcards, the call is EV neutral in terms of prize money, maybe a little bit negative.

Think of it this way. How do you suppose Dewey felt when he saw all the money go in? Do you think he was indifferent? I'm sure he was thrilled, knowing that either he would move up to 2nd place, or that one player would be reduced to an even shorter stack than Dewey had. It's a zero sum game, so if Dewey is happy, then someone must be correspondingly unhappy. Someone gave up EV somewhere along the line.

Putting that aside, the reason why Gus has to make this call is because there is a significant chance he is a 70-30 favorite in the hand, for the reasons other posters have explained. While he might be behind a big pair, he might also be ahead of a smaller pair, so those considerations cancel out.

If Paul's cards are face up it is probably slightly right for Gus to fold, in terms of prize money, but the swing is not huge.

Interesting claim
 

[ QUOTE ]

I ragged on Philips about this situation last year. I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that but I wonder which made the bigger mistake. For those of you that didn't see the hand:

blinds were T25-50K.

sb: Phillips T2.8M
bb: Tomko T800k
button: Hansen T2.3M

Hansen: TT, Raise T250K
Phillips: All-in T2.8M
Tomko: fold
Hansen: Call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that Paul priced Dewey into calling, with a much larger range of hands than normal? Or were you looking for Paul to TRY to price Dewey in, by limping, and get a better chance of knocking him out between Paul and Gus?

Or was it the AQ specifically that you didn't like, since if it gets called it's likely a loser?

Are you saying Gus shouldn't have risked his tournament life here, and the resulting prize jump, on TT against the overbet?

So many questions about your thoughts, Vince

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

a preflop all in play? yawn

Phillips had A,Qo.
 

nm

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
you probably play 5 - 10 limit at most.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? If you think tournament poker is poker you are wrong? BTW would you say that these plays were good in a live game?

Vince

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

Paul, care to comment further here?

If you have overcards, you're like 65% to pair by the river, correct? Did you assume a fold from Tomke? Did you put Gus on rags or a hand? I'm assuming you felt you're reads on Gus were very good, continually going over the top gave you some great info! Did you put him on a percentage of holdings based on percentage of folds?

Tomke (spelling?) looked to me like he was playing for second, trying to avoid any clashes, they showed one hand he folded AKs...

Re: Interesting claim
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that Paul priced Dewey into calling, with a much larger range of hands than normal?

[/ QUOTE ]

No

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that Paul priced Dewey into calling, with a much larger range of hands than normal? Or were you looking for Paul to TRY to price Dewey in, by limping, and get a better chance of knocking him out between Paul and Gus?

[/ QUOTE ]

No

[ QUOTE ]
Or was it the AQ specifically that you didn't like, since if it gets called it's likely a loser

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying Gus shouldn't have risked his tournament life here, and the resulting prize jump, on TT against the overbet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

Vince

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the effect is to prove you should keep your psychiatrist on speed-dial.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now see Paul, I say your play was a mistake and you divert my ontention to one of personal attacks. I guess you'll never change. Poor baby.

Vince

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Paul has been coming over the top of Gus regularly

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what?

[ QUOTE ]
It should also be mentioned that neither of these players is likely to be playing the move up the ladder game.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what?

[ QUOTE ]
draw a line in the sand

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that what you call Gus's play? He makes weak calls all the time and this was a prime example of that.

[ QUOTE ]
also think Gus made a big league call there

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you ever heard the term bush leaugue? Gus Hansen has been touted as a great tournament player. Even Sklansky has been up here touting his abilities. Why would a great tournament player risk his very good chance of winning the tournament on at best a toss up so early in the competition. Why wouldn't he let his great play find a better situation to risk all of his chips or continue to apply pressure to the small stack as e had effectively been doing? Since when is it good tournament stratey to go up against another big stack? Why aren't both Phillips and Hansen guilty of playing against the big stack?


[ QUOTE ]
With as much pressure as hes been putting on gus, and guss' penchant for not likeing to get pushed around he may even get called by a weaker hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what?

[ QUOTE ]
i think the way it was played was a resonable choice for two players focused on winning the tournament.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong! It was a reasonable choice for two players willing o "gamble", not focused on winning through skill.

Vince

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
pp knows that it will be hard for gus to call in that spot without aa or kk

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you have never watched Gus Hansen play. PP knows Hansen WILL call with a heck of a wider randge of hands than A,A or K,K.

Vince

Re: Do you ever play short-handed?
 

Did you ever play short handed? Well, yes. And I've won the great majoriyty of the time that I have. So?

Hansen and Philips were playing in a tournament. Short handed live action play takes second place to tournament strategy where you must win all of the chips to win and when you are busted you are gone.

Vince

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you have overcards, you're like 65% to pair by the river, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. That's not the kind of thing I think about.

[ QUOTE ]
Did you assume a fold from Tomke? Did you put Gus on rags or a hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was no way to narrow his range much. His button raise is nearly automatic in that spot. So the only questions were how AQ did against a nearly random hand, which hands he'd call me with, how much I'd win if he folded, how I'd be doing if he called, and what I'd have left if I lost.

The answers looked good for me so I pushed.

[ QUOTE ]
Tomke (spelling?) looked to me like he was playing for second, trying to avoid any clashes, they showed one hand he folded AKs...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you 100% sure of that? I have no memory of it which makes it feel very false because it's the kind of thing I'd expect to remember.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

Notice how vince conspicuously evades telling us the "correct" way to play AQ in that spot. I sure wish he would so we could all learn how the real pros do it.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
His button raise is nearly automatic in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

a lot of people seem to be missing that.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you 100% sure of that?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been trying to pay attention to everything, I'm pretty sure, OK, I'll hedge a little, 99.8% SURE!, AK clubs. Sorry, if I'm wrong...

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

KQ clubs

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

How anyone could question the play of Dot.com or Gus is way beyond my rational thinking.........I will be in the main event next year and I hope my table is in the other direction of both.......UGAISTHETEAM.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

I didn't see any problem with either Gus's or Paul's play. AQ vs. a pair of tens three handed? Looks like a good showdown to me! Besides, as others have pointed out, Paul had been pushing Gus around a bit (based on the TV hands), and does anyone expect Gus to fold a pair of tens?

I was just upset one of the backgammon players didn't win the tourney [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Frank

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

> blinds were T25-50K.

I believe that the blinds were 50-100K with a 10K ante.

> sb: Phillips T2.8M
> bb: Tomko T800k
> button: Hansen T2.3M

> Hansen: TT, Raise T250K
> Phillips: [AQ], All-in T2.8M

Moving in with AQ was obviously correct. This situation is not particularly complex or advanced. Paul needed to reraise; his hand was an order of magnitude better than the average Gus three-handed button raise. AQ is a very difficult hand to play out of position, so the reraise needed to be substantial, enough to make Gus lay down a hand like KT. There was already 420K in the pot, 670K if you include the chips that Paul would be using to call Gus's 250K, so what did you want Paul to do? Raise 800K more, committing a total of 1.05M and 38% of his stack? He couldn't lay down AQ to an all-in reraise after putting all those chips in the pot, so why not move in himself?

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gus Hansen has been touted as a great tournament player. Even Sklansky has been up here touting his abilities. Why would a great tournament player risk his very good chance of winning the tournament on at best a toss up so early in the competition

[/ QUOTE ]

Paul and Dewey aren't exactly internet qualifiers. If Gus has any skill advantage, it isn't gonna be so great that he can pass up chances to double through against someone who is capable of making that play with such a wide range of hands, given the situation.

Gus doesn't strike me as someone who cares that much about waiting out Dewey for 2nd. And considering how well Dewey has played short stacks in the past, that isn't a given either.

I'm sure Paul would be thrilled if everyone laid down everything but JJ or better to his raises.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that but I wonder which made the bigger mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear how you'd play this hand.


Paul played it absolutely correctly IMO. There is 325k of dead money in the pot for him to pick up. And even if he loses, he has 500k vs Tomko's 750k.

I think if Gus makes a raise to 150k, Paul is faced with a much more difficult decision.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
pp knows that it will be hard for gus to call in that spot without aa or kk

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you have never watched Gus Hansen play. PP knows Hansen WILL call with a heck of a wider randge of hands than A,A or K,K.

[/ QUOTE ]

which makes the play even more correct. if as you say PP knows gus will call with "a heck of a wider range then AA or KK" then why not reraise and welcome a call by a dominated hand? however PP doesn't in fact know this.
you talk as though all this happened after most of gus's tv appearances.
in fact this was one of the earlier episodes before PSI and the other wtp shows.
your assumptions as to PP thinking about what gus will call with are absurd and not really based on objective facts.
besides that maybe you should reread my intial response (the first in this thread) in which i clearly laid out why neither player made a mistake in this hand.
ITS CALLED POKER and sometimes in poker two hands go to showdown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
besides that not one person has given a different opinion.
no one besides you has attempted to show that one player made a mistake and your attempts have not been compelling.


ps. how do you do the quote inside a quote?

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that

-------------------------------------------------------------

Somehow that's cute when david does it. With you, the effect is to prove you should keep your psychiatrist on speed-dial.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice refutation.

Anyway, even though you don't agree with Vince on that point, would you care to comment on Vince's view that Gus played his hand less optimally than you played your hand?

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, even though you don't agree with Vince on that point, would you care to comment on Vince's view that Gus played his hand less optimally than you played your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
Can one play less optimally than another? Are there degrees of optimal or is optimal an absolute? Hmmmm......

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Notice how vince conspicuously evades telling us the "correct" way to play AQ in that spot. I sure wish he would so we could all learn how the real pros do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I must admit to agreeing with your assessment about Vince's rather oblique analysis, in the interest of being at least somewhat constructive...

...could it not be a good spot here to simply call and take a flop? If we can agree that Gus is likely calling pairs tens and up (an assumption, I know, but not a huge stretch), AK, and AQ, seeing the flop relatively cheaply might not be the worst thing in the world. If you flop a pair and Gus doesn't have the goods, he might be in for the long haul. If you miss, you can get away, and 3rd place money is not even in the picture yet.

If you're dominated, you were, of course, going to be dominated anyway. Minimizing your commitment to this pot might definitely serve as damage control should the flop miss you both, particularly AK vs. your AQ.

I would think that minimizing 3rd place as a newly-distinct possibility would be a fairly large consideration.

I see no value in raising a smaller amount here.

The allin has two big advantages--moving Gus off a small/medium pair (and, I suppose, possibly off of AQ), and, obviously, pushing Dewey out of the pot. This (perhaps too liberally) assumes Gus will call with his tens.

God, how I hate AQ, especially short like this in a tough situation.

I'd like to see the math, even though I cringe at some of the math I see here, and weep at my woefully inadequate math skills.

OK. I've said too much.

Re: Do you ever play short-handed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Paul just calls, he misses 2 flops out of 3 and will be forced to fold to a Gus bet, and Gus is first to act. If Paul reraises 750K, Gus would either go all in or call, and Paul has the flop problem again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seven words:

Implied odds, limited liability, and prize money consideration.

I like your thinking; it's some of the only potentially constructive posting in this thread.

I simply disagree. I think that we're all so (generally correctly) anti-calling that we fail to see that sometimes, it might make the most sense.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
KQ clubs

[/ QUOTE ]

Different universe.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

A couple of notes here...

To second-guess Paul or Gus's play here shows a big misunderstanding of the game. Three handed TT and AQ are going to lead to a race 99% of the time.

During that episode, Paul talked about his "anti-Gus" strategy or something to the like. Obviously it was successful, and I think I see a lot of the other pros emulating Paul's strategy. So much so, that it looks like Gus has tightened up a bit and evolved his strategy. Since he doesn't get credit for having a hand he's been cashing in when he does and folding more small pairs and suited connectors than he has in the past. At least from what's shown on TV.

And about Tomko - he's a pro's pro tight player. Folded AJo on the button 4 or 5 handed on one of the earliest episodes. This risk aversion leads to him being short stacked on occasion, but he's got a couple of bracelets so he's doing something right.

Re: Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, even though you don't agree with Vince on that point, would you care to comment on Vince's view that Gus played his hand less optimally than you played your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Paul is bothering to respond to this part because he's rehashed this hand a ton already on his web site. I don't blame him for not wanting to do so again, when this tournament took place over a year ago.