whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

I tried searching, but typing in win rate in the search (and clicking on search subject only) brings up topics that don't have to do with win rate at all... whats up with that?

Anyway, I was wondering what a good->great NL player averages in BB/100... I've heard 10-15 BB/100, but I only read that off one person's post, so I'm not sure. Basically I just want to know what to shoot for right now.

Thanks.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

I'm just catching up some after missing several days posts, but I want to bump this. I've wondered the same thing. So why no response, has this been covered and I missed it? If so, could someone point me to the thread, because a search turned up nothing.

I'm no great player, and I've only had Poker Tracker since early summer, so the sample is small. I'm at work and don't have access to my exact stats from here, but I have slightly over 15k hands in the database at 3 levels from $0.25 BB - $1 BB (all at Paradise) and my average for all levels is currently around 17 BB/100. I've been running pretty good over the summer, so I expect that will probably drop over a larger sample size, but I don't have any idea what to expect. Anyone?

Mack

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

come on guys, this is the millionth thread of this.

the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100
the average very good 2+2er does 10-15 and the newbies gusually start winning at about 4 and move up until they cap out at 10-12. obviously this is all game-dependant.

if you're around or above 10, you're solid.

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

Thank you. I guess I missed the other 999,999 threads. The search feature around here must not work very well....

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

Just a question, when U say xxBB/100 hands, you are talking about big blinds I guess? Cuz I know most of you use PT and
because it´s mainly done for limit it uses "big bets" in NL to.

For now I´m making about 10 big blinds per hour
in 0.25-0.5$ NL game. That would be around
14-15bb/100 hands.

Am I correct?

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just a question, when U say xxBB/100 hands, you are talking about big blinds I guess? Cuz I know most of you use PT and
because it´s mainly done for limit it uses "big bets" in NL to.

For now I´m making about 10 big blinds per hour
in 0.25-0.5$ NL game. That would be around
14-15bb/100 hands.

Am I correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you play 50 hands/hr, then 10 big blinds/hr is 5 big bets /50 hands or 10 BB/100.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

well, when i say BB i mean big bets (ie the big blind x2). I think this is pretty much the standard as most people just C&P their PT data. 10 big blinds per hour, depending on table, is about 5-8BB/100, depending on site etc.

bear in mind that comparing winrates in NL is pretty stupid. one fish at a HU game can have you making 100+BB/100 if you play it right and he's on tilt. what you really need to focus on is making the right move and being sure you're ahead (hopefully by a large margin) when the money goes in. If you can beat a 100/200 blind uncapped NL game for 4BB/100 and i can beat $10NL at my apartment for 50BB/100, who's the better player?

fim

ps- to the guy i berated for making this thread, sorry about that. yes, the search feature sucks. badly. I just think there should be a rule about new people starting threads. all you people out there: lurk for a month or two, then post some hands, then post some responses to hands, THEN start posting about the generalities of poker.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100
the average very good 2+2er does 10-15 and the newbies gusually start winning at about 4 and move up until they cap out at 10-12. obviously this is all game-dependant.

if you're around or above 10, you're solid.


lol
Are you serious?
If I translate this right..
the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100 = 40-50 Big Blinds!??
the average very good 2+2er does 10-15 = 20-30 Big blinds!!?

Are you really serious when you say that someone can win 50 big blinds per 100 hands!!!
Do you know off anyone that does that? Over a big sample? Like 100,000 hands?

I will personally pay you $200 if you show me evidence (PT stats maybe?) where someone is making 50 big blinds/100 hands over a long sample.. At least 100,000 hands.
And.. please.. No photoshop editing. Thx.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

okay, so I'm not the only one who thought he was crazy...

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

Hes just messin w/ the guy. 4-8 big bets/100 is very solid play (for 50xBB games). Dont listen to the jerkstores on here who claim to make more than 10BB/100, as they always have the tiniest sample sizes. The important thing is that you pay attention to your play, not you WR. The WR will take care of itself if you play well(and wont be nearly accurate for thousands and thousands of hands anyways). I used to go on tilt when my WR at 25NL droped by 1 from 2 hours of play. That was retarded of me.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

my average for all levels is 12bb/100. thats even with my horrid horrid attempt at playing 100 NL. mostly 25/50nl stats.

rj

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

i'm simply quoting what others have posted here. you need to re-read what i said.
for ME, i always put things in terms of Big bets (2xbb). for people who directly cut and poaste pokertracker, the same is true (as PT uses big bets). others have claimed winrates on the order of 20BB, but they have not defined what that means.
the original poster wanted to use big blinds, so that's what i gave him his answers in. and by the way, when i played prima, i consistently (over at least 30K hands) beat the game for much more than 19big blinds/100 (9.5BB/100).
obviously, im not the best SSNL player out there. just bear in mind that a lot of people are absolutely crushing these games; just because your winrate isnt as stellar, doesnt mean its impossible...

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

i make 12bb/100 at 50nl but those players suck...but...i suck too.

rj

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]

the average very good 2+2er does 10-15 = 20-30 Big blinds!!?


[/ QUOTE ]

I play shorthanded .5/1 NL$50 at Party. I average 9xBB/100 hands, which is ~$18/100, and since shorthanded averages ~100 hands/hr, I make about $18 hour playing this. I mainly play 1 table, sometimes 2. I don’t have many hands yet, maybe ~7k, but I had this same winrate at NL$25, for ~4k hands which was why I moved up. I’ve looked at my hand distribution and my hole cards are not running particularly hot, and my subjective evaluation from play is that I’m not particularly lucky.

I try to be aggressive about going for good game selection, and use the buddy list to track fish.

I’ve been playing poker for ~9 months, and been very dedicated/obsesive in that time period. I consider myself an intermediate player, certainly not an expert, and think I definitely have leaks and get can my winrate higher.

--Greg

Edit: I also moved up to $NL100 and got my ass kicked so moved back down. I attribute my good results to playing against bad players, but also playing fairly well. I’m sure I can get better, and that should offset any “untraceable” luck I’ve been getting

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

20-25 BB's/100 hands????? Where did you hear this? I would be interested to know who makes this much.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

please read the other post. the BB numbers i quoted to the OP were in big blinds, as that is how he expressed his numbers.
I personally beat the prima 50, 100 and 200 games for more than 19big blinds/100 over about 30K hands, with about 23-25big blinds/100 on the last 15k hands. and i am very very far from the best SSNL player on these boards...

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm simply quoting what others have posted here. you need to re-read what i said.
for ME, i always put things in terms of Big bets (2xbb). for people who directly cut and poaste pokertracker, the same is true (as PT uses big bets). others have claimed winrates on the order of 20BB, but they have not defined what that means.
the original poster wanted to use big blinds, so that's what i gave him his answers in. and by the way, when i played prima, i consistently (over at least 30K hands) beat the game for much more than 19big blinds/100 (9.5BB/100).
obviously, im not the best SSNL player out there. just bear in mind that a lot of people are absolutely crushing these games; just because your winrate isnt as stellar, doesnt mean its impossible...

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

30,000 hands is nothing. My WR still moves around a lot after well over 100k hands.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

30K hands is a good enough number in nl. you shouldnt be moving up and down much if you have 100K in your system.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
30K hands is a good enough number in nl. you shouldnt be moving up and down much if you have 100K in your system.

[/ QUOTE ]

30k hands is enough for a very rough idea. The ballpark of your WR. my WR has moved by almost 1bb/100 after 60k hands before (when i ran INSANELY hot once).

The fact of the matter is, WR is not even CLOSE to accurate at 30k hands. Even in NL.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]

The fact of the matter is, WR is not even CLOSE to accurate at 30k hands. Even in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? evidence? did you consider that your win rate increased over your last 60k hands because you improved? you can show that 30k is a fine number for a decent estimate by just looking at the average variance. when you say "the fact of the matter is" i expect some proof so lets hear it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The fact of the matter is, WR is not even CLOSE to accurate at 30k hands. Even in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? evidence? did you consider that your win rate increased over your last 60k hands because you improved? you can show that 30k is a fine number for a decent estimate by just looking at the average variance. when you say "the fact of the matter is" i expect some proof so lets hear it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Take you WR and SD after 30k hands and enter them into the WR confidence formula and post the results.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

To be making something like 15 big bets / 100 hands you would have either to be running extremely well or be exceptional compared to your competition. If you are just starting out, then aim for something like 5BB/100, this is a perfectly solid win rate.

Re: Answer me this!
 

I currently win about 30$/hour average playing 5 tables at the same time.
How many BB/100 does that make?
I have pokertracker but i dont trust his figures

Re: Answer me this!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I currently win about 30$/hour average playing 5 tables at the same time.
How many BB/100 does that make?
I have pokertracker but i dont trust his figures

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fisrt of all, what stakes do you play. Second you dont trust PT? thats absurd.

Re: Answer me this!
 

That is absurb. Especially since, if I remember right, this is the same player that told me there was no way I could be making 15 bb's/100 hands or whatever I had during one of my posts. Everything this guy says is absurd.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

You said:
the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100

Then Jimbolitio asked:
Just a question, when U say xxBB/100 hands, you are talking about big blinds I guess?

You answered:
well, when i say BB i mean big bets (ie the big blind x2).

I asked:
the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100 = 40-50 Big Blinds!??

You said:
for ME, i always put things in terms of Big bets (2xbb).
the original poster wanted to use big blinds, so that's what i gave him his answers in.


Really? So all off a suddenly you changed your first post to Big Blinds? lol Very convenient.. isn't it? How the heck should we know what you are talking about? Are we supposed to be psychic!???

If you don't have at lest 50,000 hands. Don't post your win rates. I have had downswings or break even sessions over 8,000-10,000 hands. It's a joke to use a tiny sample size when you are comparing win rates.
And also, when people are posting your winrate in BB/100. Please tell us what you mean! Are you talking about Big Bets or Big Blinds. I don't care which one you use. But you must clarify your post if you only post "I make XX BB/100 hands". Otherwise people won't know what you mean.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

I find it hard to believe with the edges you can find at $25 NL that you can have bad streaks that last thousands of hands.

I almost never went in behind in my 10k hands there, much less had down swings of thousands of hands.

I guess it's possible though.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

sorry if i confused you. i thought the emphasis on ME indicated that when i'm discussing things in general on the board, and other people are using big blinds, that i will follow suit; however, if I PERSONALLY posted something like: MY winrate is xBB/100, it would be in big bets as that's what pokertracker uses. anyhow, this discussion is completely irrelevant for a few reasons:

1. 20+K is plenty of hands to determine winrate at a certain game within a good margin of error. There are reputable posters on these forums, if you do a search, that beat small stakes NL for more than 10BB (20 big blinds)/100, so your challenge is invalid.

2. the sites with deeper stacks offer a greater overlay over weak opposition. turning 50big blinds/100 at party's 50BB structure, which i'm sure you're referring to, is very hard, though i wouldn't say impossible. however on the sites which offer 100BB buyins, this is more feasible. hell, my friend andrea kicks the crap out of 5NL on prima for WAY over 50BB/100, so there's your evidence right there.


the point here is that winrates in NL arent something to get huffy about. if someone is posting huge winrates, then congratulate them and dont get defensive if yours isnt the same. the scales are most likely not equal and they may have a juicier game. The structure of limit is fairly constant. NL has many different formats which could lead to grossly exaggerated or underestimated winrates.

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

much less had down swings of thousands of hands.

I play about 2000-2200 hands per day. I can have a losing day several days in a row.. That is swings off thousands off hands.
And also.. who says we are talking about Party NL$25? We are talking win rates. Not win rates on party NL$25.. Even if it's included.

If you don't understand variance.. Please read an excellent post by Zag.
Here is the link:
The link to Zag's post about variance.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

NL has many different formats which could lead to grossly exaggerated or underestimated winrates.

That why you need a big sample.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

i think wayfare understands variance.

several 2K+hands/day (i take this to mean 5+) losing days in a row at NL screams holes in your game. unless you're misposting here and play a very tough, very high-stakes game that belongs in the mid-high forum, these games don't offer much variance to a solid player. that's often the reason people play them, namely that the winrate/bankroll in NL is many times better than in limit, where variance is much, much higher.

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
NL has many different formats which could lead to grossly exaggerated or underestimated winrates.

That why you need a big sample.

[/ QUOTE ]

um, think about that one for a moment...

you play $1000NL with $1/2 blinds and i play 50NL with the same structure. we're both the best player at the table and equal in skill. no amount of samples will make my winrate equal to yours.

do you understand?

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

damn, and i was just gonna chalk this one up as a zero-response, stupid-question post...

so now i'm confused again -- lemme see if i get this straight: pokertracker lists winrate as BigBet/100 correct? So for 100NL party with $2 big blinds, the Big Bet would be $4? so if i win X BB/100 I win $4 times X per 100 hands?

So a good/great player wins >10 Big Bets/100?

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

Yes.. off course.. You are supposed to have a higher win rate at the 100xBigBlinds games than the 50xBig Blinds game.
But that have nothing to do with your sample size.
You still need a big sample size before you are sure about your winrate.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

last post for the night.

beating a NL game for 10big blinds/100 is an admirable goal. This is the standard rule of thumb. There are certainly (reputable) posters here who have claimed upwards of 50big blinds/100; i am not one of them.

the real measure of NL success is if you are ahead and if so by how much when the money goes in. on a shorter stacked game like party, a smaller winrate is expected; in a deeper game like prima/intercasino, your winrate will be bigger in terms of big blinds simply because of the structure.

in reality, anything above 0 is great; with the rake it means that you're doing better than the majority of your opposition.

oh yeah, and i'm a liar, froggy is dumb and wayfare punches kittens. purplemonkeydishwasher.

fim

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

about this variance stuff. the reason i say 30k hands is good enough is because that will get you to within 1 of your "real" win rate. some people often say that they want to know to the tenth what their wr is, and consequently they need a much larger sample. well, getting that accurate is pointless. when you get down to the tenth, there are other factors that distort statistical win rate that far outweigh sample size problems. A copule of examples are improvement in skill, increase in average opponent quality, improvement in notes on other people, and other peoples improvements in notes on you. further, saying you need one huge database is also pointless because the win rate is most often used to predict future successes. if you have 100,000 hands where you were a 2BB/100 player and 100,000 hands where you were a 8BB/100 player, it does not mean that you are currently a 5BB/100 player.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

[ QUOTE ]
about this variance stuff. the reason i say 30k hands is good enough is because that will get you to within 1 of your "real" win rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true.
Of course, it's entirely dependant on the SD/100hands. For me, at the 100NL, my SD/100 is 37.5BB (I will use the big bet convention throughout). I'm pretty aggressive, so let me know if this number is way too high.

Lets assume your play and the playing conditions do not change throughout the sample.

After 30k hands, the 95% confidence interval is +/- 4.2BB/100 from your true winrate( e.g. if your true winrate is 5BB/100, after 30k hands there is a 95% chance that your actual winrate will be between 0.8 and 9.2BB/100).

After 100k hands, the 95% c.i. is true winrate +/- 2.3BB/100, so you are still not nailing it down to within one BB.

The long run is very long.

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

Could you please tell me one person who claims to make over 50 bb's/100 hands. Also, how deep are the stacks at Prima?

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

my variance is like 18 so i guess that is where our discprepency comes from

Re: whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?
 

use the search function, im not going to put words in anyone's mouth.

the stacks at prima are 100Xbb

andrea beats the $5NL game there for (much) >100BB/100.

fim