commerce hand
 

10-20 NL at Commerce. I limp after some limpers in MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and a few more come in behind me. 7 or 8 of us see:

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Lots of people check, I check, guy behind me bets 200. Surprisingly, all fold to me and I call.

This guy has about 3500 and I cover. From the few hands I've seen he seems tight-aggressive. On the rail next to my elbow sits his portable fan, and on his head are Bose noise-cancelling headphones. He keeps straightening his chips and bills or subtly adjusting his fan when my arm gets too close.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, he bets 700, and I call.

River J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 1500.

Re: commerce hand
 

I'd like to start by saying I don't play as high as 10-20 and so am not going to try and second guess your thoughts in this hand.
I would like to say though, that I love the way you played it.
You could have fired on the turn, as it looks like he has at least a decent ace and possibly 2pr AT and wants you to go away. The call on the turn is probably scarier to him than a c/r or firing into it.
The only hand I would be worried about is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], so when the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] came on the river I think it was a great bet of 1500.
He can't call with 2 pair and if he had a str8 draw which he hit (unlikely to have Q9/79 with the read tho) he has to be worried about the flush now, as well as you slow playing a set on the flop.
I look forward to seeing the result... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: commerce hand
 

you are leading the witness. by your description he is the kind who will lay down an ace there. so your bluff is good provided he's also the kind who will bet that ace on the turn. if he won't bet an ace on the turn he's (semi)bluffing or has you crushed barring maybe top two, in which case you are better off check-folding or check-raising on the turn. by your description of his habits best guess is he's not an ace-bettor or a big bluffer. so i'd check-fold the turn given you checked. also pays to bet that turn sometimes.

ni han if you won.

matt

Re: commerce hand
 

What's your table image? You are trying to represent the flush, but does he think you will call $700 with one card to come? I think he folds an ace here, but isn't going to fold much else if he feels you’re a solid player.

Re: commerce hand
 

I've shown down one hand where I put in a big flop raise with a pair + flush draw and sucked out on bottom set. I'm folding more than a lot of these guys, but that isn't saying much. Also, I'm younger than everyone else (but not dressed WPT-kid style.) That's what he'd seen from me; I didn't know what my image was.

Re: commerce hand
 

I'm gonna go ahead and say that I don't like your play at all - regardless of what the results were.....on the turn, you are out of position with only one more card to come and you call a $700 bet in an unraised pot with a straight/flush draw against a tight opponent when the board just paired.....I think the $2k you spent post-turn on your outs (god knows which ones - if any - are clean)/ bluffing equity (whatever) is generally -EV......I check/fold this turn all day...

Re: commerce hand
 

Your description obviously has this guy pegged as a "folder," which changes the entire dynamic of the hand.

However, being out of position on the turn, one of two things has to happen: you have to make your hand and get in enough money by the end to justify the $700 call on the turn or bluff at the pot successfully enough to justify making the call. However, I would like to look at the flop for just a second:

On the flop you were (I assume) just looking to stack this guy cheap with a gutshot, and that call is probably a good one if you think that he is agressive enough to trap himself with only a strong ace.

Back to the turn, he is still only laying you around 1-1 on the pot, yet both your outs and "bluff outs" have improved dramatically. What I would think about when trying to count those "extra outs" with the diamonds flush (as you know he doesn't have the diamonds) is whether he will fold enough to justify a large bet on the end.

At least from my vantage point, this seems like a pot which you changed your plan mid-way, from stacking him with a gutshot to making a rather large play on him. My main question is whether it is worth EV wise to go from calling with implied odds to making a huge bluff on the end when his original flop bet was only laying you 1:1? I would have folded and moved on to the flop bet.

Note that I do not play at a level nearly this high, and I am posting partially to develop my own thought process towards situations like this.

EDIT: Would calling the flop and leading the turn be a better play due to the possibility that he is on a good ace and will start to fear a slowplayed set? Is he the type of player who will raise a stop-and-go? I know I'm not.

Re: commerce hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he won't bet an ace on the turn he's (semi)bluffing or has you crushed barring maybe top two, in which case you are better off check-folding or check-raising on the turn.
matt

[/ QUOTE ]

what about this addition? if you dont think he will bet his ace on the turn, then planning to check/call the turn then betting on several possible river bluff cards is not a good idea for another reason. this line is only really tempting when he bets the turn, and if there is a good chance he will check it behind, then you are stuck basically with a flush draw and a gutshot. this is because if a diamond falls, he will call your river bet too often since he thinks that your bluffing frequency increased dramatically when he checked the turn. so it is possible that if you know he will check behind with 1 pair on the turn a decent amount of the time, you may want to check planning to fold, bet, or check/raise more often than you would if you knew he would bet the turn. thoughts?

Re: commerce hand
 

GoG flopped a double gutter.

Re: commerce hand
 

it's a double-gutter, not just a gutshot.

ok, continue your very educational thread.

Re: commerce hand
 

Hi GoG,

Given that you are a somewhat known quantity (he's probably observed that you're a thinking player who will bluff for big money), I don't like your play much on the river.

The flop is an easy check-call, IMO, since you have a hand with good deceptive potential, and you will have a host of bluff-outs on the turn (the diamonds). The turn is not a bad card for you, but unless you thought he was very weak, I wouldn't bluff there either, since he sees all the draws, and won't give you much credit for having called with bottom pair or a set on that flop.

Then, on the river, you bet 1500. This is a good bet against thinking players, who see that it looks like you want to be called. But I don't think it will work here, unless he's the type who'll never commit a lot of chips without a very big hand. Some of your description possibly pegs him this way, while "tight-aggressive," does not.

And, the other problem is, it's just not as much as you could have bet. Good players can go back and forth forever about bet size in spots like this (or when you hit), and I go back and forth myself a lot. These days, I think it's best to face him with that extra 1100, so despite it looking like you want him to fold, he's getting 3800 to 2600, as opposed to 2600 to 1500. Plus, the card is admittedly scary.

All of this, plus the small chance that HE could've been semi-bluffing with a diamond draw--presumably you read him as not likely to have it this time.

All in all, bluffing here can't be a big mistake, but this time I would've passed (check-fold the river), I think.

Re: commerce hand
 

I like the line.

I'm thinking of how I'd play this if I were your opponent. Even with trips I think I'd be laying this down on the river. The straight and flush draws come home on the river, and your play was consistent with a strong draw.

-Ben

Re: commerce hand
 

i also like the play. there is no hand that he can beat that you would do this with other than JcQc. i doubt you would have stuck around the turn if you didnt pick up your flush draw. because reading your hand is near impossible, i doubt hed call with an ace here, hed have to have a house or a nuttyflush to call.

Re: commerce hand
 

i think that the turn play is by far the most interesting of the hand. the ability to create turn/river combo lines is what seperates decent players from good players. when it gets to the river, it is a pretty simple decision of whether to value bet or not.
edited out last sentance, misread

Re: commerce hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
when it gets to the river, it is a pretty simple decision of whether to value bet or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think he is betting for value

Re: commerce hand
 

haha i misread the hand. thought he made a striaght on the river. ooooops. posting while playing is dangerous. still would anyone like to comment on my other post?

Re: commerce hand
 

you're kidding, right? gab is bluffing.

--turnipmonster

Re: commerce hand
 

check calling the flop is weak. once this play is made the whole hand is out of whack. check calling the turn is even weaker.

Re: commerce hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
And, the other problem is, it's just not as much as you could have bet. Good players can go back and forth forever about bet size in spots like this (or when you hit), and I go back and forth myself a lot. These days, I think it's best to face him with that extra 1100, so despite it looking like you want him to fold, he's getting 3800 to 2600, as opposed to 2600 to 1500. Plus, the card is admittedly scary.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. If GOG pushes here he looks like a maniac who just called $700 with one card to come, his opponent will not want to pay him of.

Re: commerce hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Back to the turn, he is still only laying you around 1-1 on the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be almost impossible. He bet 700 into about 550, laying you 1250:700, or about 1.8:1.

Justin A

Re: commerce hand
 

[ QUOTE ]


check calling the flop is weak. once this play is made the whole hand is out of whack. check calling the turn is even weaker.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the brilliant insight.

Justin A

Re: commerce hand
 

GOG was planning on making a move on the river when he misses, raisng the turn here is a big mistake.

Re: commerce hand
 

no calling the turn is a big mistake, a fold is in order.

Re: commerce hand
 

do you need insight spoon fed to you? i could make it more complicated but the answer is very simple. i play in the 10-20nl at commerce from time to time, (its generally not as good as the 5-10 at bike or 5-5 at hollywood) these set up moves with the big bet out at the end are fairly common and transparent.

Re: commerce hand
 

"These days, I think it's best to face him with that extra 1100, so despite it looking like you want him to fold, he's getting 3800 to 2600, as opposed to 2600 to 1500. Plus, the card is admittedly scary."

How do you get those odds? I have, $150 (preflop) + $400 (flop) + $1400 (turn) = $1950. Which leaves the guy with $2500 left, so a $1500 bet leaves the guy with $3500:$1500 odds or an all in gives $4500:$2500. I was wondering if there's any chance the bad guy would fold a flush to an all in bet on the river (I think GoG could credibly have a fullhouse with tens there, and then lead out all in) but the pot odds just seem too good for him to fold a flush. $1500 looks like a good bet size to fold out an ace if he's going to take this line. And actually now that I think about it, it might not be credible for GoG to have a set there, I think he'd probably playback on the flop, on that board.

Re: commerce hand
 

Despite what everyone is saying about you i find your posts great to read.


... it's just ashame you'll be bust soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] and then follow the trend and post only in the internet forum

Re: commerce hand
 

Who are you referring to 1800? Ambiguous.

Edit: I guess it was prop?

Re: commerce hand
 

Look at who he's replying to...

Re: commerce hand
 

i've never played on line. ill be at HP wed in the 5-5 cleaning up on the residue of the Phil Hellmuth invitational. stop by and mention 2+2. ill chat with you away from the table.

Re: commerce hand
 

When you look at his hand and that flop, the first thing that should pop into your head is "double-gutter, sweet!" If you didn't see that right off the bat, you should probably, I dunno, do some studying or something.

Just wanted to mention that.

Re: commerce hand
 

Would he bet into a wide field with just a flushdraw like KT/QT/T9 – I wouldn’t think so as better to keep people around or chkrs. Would he play that way with TT/88 –no, I think he’d underbet the pot on the turn. But he’s anal so he’s got a good hand – gotta be 2 pair or TP. For 2pair, If it’s T8 or A8 you’re screwed, but again I think those hands bet the turn less to keep you around or show more weakness. So AT of spades or hearts. For TP, figure AK would have raised preflop, so AQ/AJ possible. But that would be ballsy to lead that into 7 limpers.

So he’s got AT of hearts or spades. You’re representing at least the flush, and he’s getting 2.7:1 on a call. So does this tight/anal player think you're bluffing at least 40% of the time; well, probably not. so well played.

How’d I do?

--Greg

Re: commerce hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i play in the 10-20nl at commerce from time to time, (its generally not as good as the 5-10 at bike or 5-5 at hollywood)

[/ QUOTE ]

How deep do you play?

Re: commerce hand
 

i always buy in for exactly 100x the BB in any game i play. i have my reasons. i will even filter out of a game if im too deep compared to the victems and their playing styles and filter back in for 100x the BB.

Re: commerce hand
 

OK, that's what I figured. If you're playing $500-1000, I can imagine those games being better. But the Commerce 10-20 game is consistently great and plays much, much deeper than that.

i dont understand what you\'re saying.
 

I buy in for 2k and have 2k at least for the start of every deal. many players have upwards of 10k in that game but it has no effect on me. i will only keep that much on the table if the victem is loose passive. if hes loose aggressive i dont need to play huge pots with him i'd rather play a series of big pots. in that game there used to be no less than 3 world class spots at any time, is it still hosted bt Jim? scotty, bobby, fisherman and limon played regularly...i can GUARANTEE you you will never see a top notch player in ANY spot at HP or the bike thats why i havent played at commerce in over a year.

Re: i dont understand what you\'re saying.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I buy in for 2k and have 2k at least for the start of every deal. many players have upwards of 10k in that game but it has no effect on me.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so you're buying in for $500/$1000/$2000 in the three games. Got it. Still, what I'm saying is that if you're going to play a 2k stack, I can believe that you can find better games elsewhere. If you're going to play 5k or more, the 10-20 can provide multiple stacks of that depth with plenty of action. But maybe I'm wrong - how deep do those 5/5 and 5/10 games typically get?

[ QUOTE ]
in that game there used to be no less than 3 world class spots at any time, is it still hosted bt Jim? scotty, bobby, fisherman and limon played regularly...

[/ QUOTE ]

Jim still hosts the game. Scotty plays often. Bobby I haven't seen too much when I've played (wkends mostly), but he apparently still plays it a lot. Fisherman Greg I've seen a lot. Limon I dunno if I've played with or not. Doug, Jake, Gabe and a couple of other regulars are also very good. But even with all those guys, the game has been great. They often get 3 or 4 full games going on weekend nights. Lots of action to go around.

[ QUOTE ]
i can GUARANTEE you you will never see a top notch player in ANY spot at HP or the bike thats why i havent played at commerce in over a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: i dont understand what you\'re saying.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jim still hosts the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? this is a casino game, right?

Re: i dont understand what you\'re saying.
 

the 5-5 game at hp gets ridiculously deep at times, theres a couple of armenian "importers" and a couple of afroamerican "rap artists" that buy in for 10k or more for no apparent reason. i chop them down 1k at a time and if my stack gets over 3k i filter back through. the 5-10 at the bike is still a iddy bidy lil baby. no one ever has more than 5k in my experience. ave stack is 1k.

Re: i dont understand what you\'re saying.
 

Did not realize the HP game played that big. Will have to give it a try next time I head down there. Thx.

Diablo
 

Diablo, I'd appreciate your take on the play, specifically the flop check/call.