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-   -   When will we have next repeat WSOP winner? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=131354)

betgo 10-03-2004 08:28 AM

When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
The only players to win the WSOP more than once are Moss, Brunson, Ungar, and Chan, all of whom are almost legendary figures. When will someone do it again? I think it is a little more difficult now.

BarronVangorToth 10-03-2004 08:37 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
There are some amazing players nowadays -- arguably better than there were in yesteryear -- but the sheer numbers make it such a longshot. Look at Dan Harrington: two final tables two years in a row. That is a feat I doubt few will replicate in the near future, let alone WINNING the whole potato.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Neil Stevens 10-03-2004 09:12 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
It'll happen when the buy-in is raised to keep out the riff-raff.

Equal 10-03-2004 09:19 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
[ QUOTE ]
It'll happen when the buy-in is raised to keep out the riff-raff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%. The really bad players are the ones keeping the pros from repeating. On that note, I am moving up from $1/$2 to $15/$30 so people will stop calling me with crap. It's just impossible to beat the low limits!!

fsuplayer 10-03-2004 09:24 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
I agree 100%. The really bad players are the ones keeping the pros from repeating. On that note, I am moving up from $1/$2 to $15/$30 so people will stop calling me with crap. It's just impossible to beat the low limits!!

seek help. now.

Neil Stevens 10-03-2004 09:24 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Surely you can see the difference between low-limit ring games and monster-sized tournaments?

Kurn, son of Mogh 10-03-2004 10:15 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
I think (hope) he was being sarcastic. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

jwvdcw 10-03-2004 10:22 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Surely you can see the difference between low-limit ring games and monster-sized tournaments?

[/ QUOTE ]

Surely you can see the difference between sarcasm and sincerity?

Neil Stevens 10-03-2004 10:55 AM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Not in this medium, not consistently.

BarronVangorToth 10-03-2004 01:04 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
[ QUOTE ]
It'll happen when the buy-in is raised to keep out the riff-raff.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it won't. Say there is a $25,000 buy-in. Poker Satellite X will have 1,000 people online for $25 a head. Online poker is here and these tourneys will ALWAYS be filled with online qualifier players. And that's GREAT for the pro, because it adds a lot of value to the prize pool, plus, I have to tell you, while I'd relish the opportunity to be at a table with the likes of Phil I., Howard L., Paul P., Daniel N., Doyle B., etc etc etc -- I'd like my chances of advancing a whole lot better if it was against PokerBabe38 and HESTud69696969.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

betgo 10-03-2004 01:17 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
It's not the bad players in themselves, but the bad players attract average professionals and strong amateurs who wouldn't have played when most of the field was world class players. Guys like Raymer, Moneymaker, Varkonyi (I know Raymer > Moneymaker > Varkonyi), Arieh, Williams, and Krux probably wouldn't have played when the field was stronger. When you put several hundred fairly strong players like this is a field with maybe 50 established world class players, it is more likely one of the fairly strong players will win, because there are so many more of them.

Trainwreck 10-03-2004 04:33 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
I think raising the BUY-IN is not that big of help, the online sites/casinos will just adjust the sats....

I first thought that would work too, and after further thought ^

WPT's new pro only tour might be the solution: previous tournament finishes requirement

The pros could wreck havoc on the WSOP by ALL boycotting it...
<chances of this: I put at .000000001%>

My .01 on the subject...

Repeat winner wise, I think we will have a former winner take it down by 2014.

>TW<

DimensionPresident 10-03-2004 05:35 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
I never knew the specifics, but does the WSOP give a certain number of these spots out for promotion, or do the online card rooms simply pay full price for an entry?

If it's the former, why can't the WSOP just say there can be no online sat winners?

CrisBrown 10-03-2004 05:38 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Hi betgo,

An interesting (perhaps) corollary question: when will the next (true) "Tiger Woods" figure appear in poker, and is it even possible?

I'm not talking about Phil Ivey (who is commonly referred to as the Tiger Woods of poker). I'm talking about a player who will raise the bar of performance in such a way that: (a) he'll win a bunch of tournaments at first; and, (b) everyone else will be forced to adjust their games to compete.

In the 1980s and early 90s, commentators were saying there would never be another Hogan-Palmer-Nicklaus sort of dominant player, because the fields were bigger and the average skill level in the field had risen. Greg Norman and a handful of others won often, but on any given week, in the PGA Tour, just about any of the players could win.

Then along came Tiger Woods. He not only had the mechanics but also the athleticism to raise the bar for golf. He hit the ball farther, straighter, and more accurately than just about anyone else on tour, and for several years all of the other pros were having to play catch-up. They had to go to the weight room, develop their athleticism, and fit it into their overall games in order to compete. Now many of them have, and while Tiger is still very good, he's not going to win as often as he did, simply because the rest of the field has caught up and can compete again.

Is it possible for a "Tiger Woods" like figure to emerge in poker? What additional skills/abilities -- over and above those the top tournament pros already typically possess -- would such a player need in order to dominate and force everyone else to adjust their games in order to compete? Or is the nature of poker so inherently different from golf that this is not possible?

Cris

ismisus 10-03-2004 05:39 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Raising of the buy-in will lower the amount of entries. Thus lowering variance. Thus inscreasing the chance of a repeating champion.

Its all simple, no one wonder even tools like Paul Phillips win so much money in Poker over people like you.

The4thFilm 10-03-2004 05:45 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Probably the field/2

DimensionPresident 10-03-2004 05:52 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Raising of the buy-in will lower the amount of entries. Thus lowering variance. Thus inscreasing the chance of a repeating champion.

Its all simple, no one wonder even tools like Paul Phillips win so much money in Poker over people like you.

[/ QUOTE ]

What f_cking drugs are you on, buddy? My question was does the WSOP give away a certain number of entries to online casinos in exchange for the promotion they will receive from those online casinos, or do the online casinos pay full price for the entries they give away?

I am fully aware of the fact that a smaller field will increase the chance of a repeat champ. Douche.

donny5k 10-03-2004 06:03 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
The point is it will lower the number of entries a negligible amount. In fact the rate of growth in number of entries due to online qualifying most certainly outweighs any change resulting from increasing the buyin.

ismisus 10-03-2004 06:18 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
The basic rule of economics is this. As price increases, demand decreases. So eventually, the increase of the buy-in will lower the amount of entries.

I would argue that growth of online qualifiers is negligible. Since the buy-in can be raised to an infinite amount, while the amount of qualifers cannot.

Tyler 10-03-2004 07:13 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Phil hellmuth will win next year kakaka [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

donny5k 10-03-2004 07:27 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Your basic rule of economics only holds if you hold all other variables constant. Sure eventually if you raise it high enough you can lower the amount of online qualifiers. But even a lot of "top" pros cannot play in THAT high of a buyin event without risking too much of their bankroll. The WPT final event is a 25,000 buyin and had a plethora of online qualifiers.

DimensionPresident 10-03-2004 07:51 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
So, I take it no one knows if the online casinos pay full price to send their qualifiers or if the WSOP / WPT gives each higher profile online casino a certain number of free or discounted entries in exchange for the promotion?

donny5k 10-03-2004 07:53 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
The online sites already make tons of money off of the tournament fees on the satellites and the satellites to play in the satellites so I don't think it makes that much of a difference.

TomCollins 10-03-2004 08:10 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Another dillusional post by Cris. The difference in skill between Joe Poker and Phil Ivey is a LOT less than the difference between Tiger Woods and Joe 9-iron. A slightly above average could never beat Tiger in a match. Maybe one in 100,000. But an amateur could beat Ivey in a poker match at least 10% of the time. Possibly more. The amount of luck in a poker tournament as huge. I will make the following prediction. No one will ever reach the final table in a 2000+ player event two years in a row. Is this an even money bet, or even worse? Who knows. What are your thoughts.

donny5k 10-03-2004 08:39 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Well since you say ever, the EV of your bet depends heavily on how long the WSOP will stay in existence.

DimensionPresident 10-03-2004 10:12 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
[ QUOTE ]
The online sites already make tons of money off of the tournament fees on the satellites and the satellites to play in the satellites so I don't think it makes that much of a difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

It makes a world of difference. If the online casinos get free entries to give away in exchange for promotion, the WSOP / WPT can cut them off. Then the online casinos would be faced with $10,000 (or more) PER entry in increased expenses they hadn't had to deal with in the past. This would certainly effect the number of entries they would give away from that point on, if any.

If the online casinos already pay full price on entries, then it would be less important.

CrisBrown 10-03-2004 10:59 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Hi Tom,

Whence the delusion? I included as a possibility that poker was so different from golf that we would never see Tiger Woods-like dominance in poker. I didn't say that either possibility was more likely than the other. I simply solicited others' opinions on the issue.

Cris

Bremen 10-03-2004 11:16 PM

Re: When will we have next repeat WSOP winner?
 
Dimension, the satellite buyins are supposed to cover the cost of the seat. Since the online sites also take an additional fee I would think there is no discount. Besides if bug events gave discounts they would have to cover the costs out of their own budgets. I'm not positive but I would believe the majority of people get in through satellite's. So subsidizing them is out of the question.


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