How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

Thinking about Hellmuth's 4-1 comment, I ask this question:

First hand of the tourney. If you take some of the best players in the world like Lederer, Bruson, Ivey, Hellmuth, etc. told them what everyone at the table had for this hand. If a person went all in and the superstar pro was a 2-1 favorite, would he call? What about a 70% favorite? How much of a favorite do you think the top pros would have to be in order to call all in on the very first hand of the tourney.

Or heres another somewhat similar question(perhaps Annie or Barry can chime in here): You hold QQ on the very first hand of the WSOP. Some unknown internet guy goes all in from EP. Do you fold? What about if you hold KK in the same situation?

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are there really people out there that are 90% favorites? That seems so high to me. That would mean folding aces preflop if somone bets all in. That would mean folding top flopped set if there is a flush draw out there that you put your opponent on and he moves all in. I can't imagine even the very best pros being that good...can they?

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

This is mathematically the right way to look at it, but there is no way any player in the universe is close to a 90% favorite to double up.

I think Hellmuth's comment was just talk. I don't think there is any way he, or anyone else, passes up a 4-1 edge.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.

[/ QUOTE ]



cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 1315168 76.81 391637 22.87 5499 0.32 0.770
7d 6d 391637 22.87 1315168 76.81 5499 0.32 0.230

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you wanted the worst case scenario with aces, it'd actually be middle suited connectors, something like 67 suited in a suit you dont have. Then aces are only (only?)around 77ish %.

Edit: Guess I was a little slow.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you fold Kings here? I'm by no means a world class player, but I am a long time winner at the $215 STTs online and at the big buy in multis, and folding Ks preflop boggles my mind. I've only folded Qs preflop three times and both of those were because it was near the bubble.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

The list of hands other than Aces that I could put someone on who goes all-in in EP on the first hand of a big tourney does not include 67s. That is why I picked KK as the worst case. I know there are some maniacs out there but an all in preflop in this spot really limits the range of thier possible holdings.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

The list of hands other than Aces that I could put someone on who goes all-in in EP on the first hand of a big tourney does not include 67s.


Someone you've never seen play pushing from EP could have 23o.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

HLederer and Men the Master have both said in the past they could easily fold KK preflop to big all-in raise. Obviously whether he would or not is another question depending on read,etc.

Raymer and Paul Phillips have both posted in the past that they would avoid slight favorite situations, but not be afraid to get money in if they were sure to be somewhat favorites (fossilman said 60-40 was good enough). Both have cited “I could be doing other valuable things like making money elsewhere” as the rationale.

It’s about $/hour, not $/tourney, and you still have to get lots of chips to make big $ yet.

--Greg

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]

HLederer and Men the Master have both said in the past they could easily fold KK preflop to big all-in raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most decent players would quickly fold KK to an all-in early in a 10K tournament unless the opponent had already been playing maniacally. However, this really doesn't come up.

[ QUOTE ]

Raymer and Paul Phillips have both posted in the past that they would avoid slight favorite situations, but not be afraid to get money in if they were sure to be somewhat favorites (fossilman said 60-40 was good enough).

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

Incidentally, someone else was talking about 90% favorites being uncommon, and they're certainly right about that, but look what happened to me at the bike this year.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

A cashgame player myself, this boggles my mind. I mean, I can understand avoiding plays that were +EV, but still dangerous in a tournament situation, but those are only plays with a slight +EV. The cards won't always hit in a tournament, and you only have 200BB to start the WSOP, (and less in other tourneys) and eventually, if you don't get cards, it's down to 30BB, when you're at that point, you're going to be making a LOT of plays with probable -EV.

I may be wrong in saying this, but i BELIEVE that if I were a seasoned tourney pro and everyone at my table pushed all-in to me and I saw AA, I'd call, knowing I only have a 30% chance of winning (obviously assuming it's a multitable)

Would I be wrong?

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I may be wrong in saying this, but i BELIEVE that if I were a seasoned tourney pro and everyone at my table pushed all-in to me and I saw AA, I'd call, knowing I only have a 30% chance of winning (obviously assuming it's a multitable)

Would I be wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to see the same threads that come up twice a month on rgp are here too!

Here's one among literally hundreds of other discussions on the same topic.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

What is amazing is not that these threads continually recur, but that no matter how many world-class players give the right answer, people still persist in these crazy beliefs that you should never risk your survival no matter how great the odds.

There is this myth that if you are a great player, you can breeze through an MTT by picking up small pots, getting involved in big pots only when you have the nuts, and so forth. "Myth" is probably the nicest word I could use for it. It's a shame this view is so prevalent, it really hurts the quality of discussions here sometimes.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

HLederer and Men the Master have both said in the past they could easily fold KK preflop to big all-in raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most decent players would quickly fold KK to an all-in early in a 10K tournament unless the opponent had already been playing maniacally. However, this really doesn't come up.

[ QUOTE ]

Raymer and Paul Phillips have both posted in the past that they would avoid slight favorite situations, but not be afraid to get money in if they were sure to be somewhat favorites (fossilman said 60-40 was good enough).

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

Incidentally, someone else was talking about 90% favorites being uncommon, and they're certainly right about that, but look what happened to me at the bike this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll take a 60% advantage, yet you'll fold KK to an early all in.

So pretty much if anyone goes all in early on in a tourney and you have no reads on him, then you think that he has aces 60+% of the time? This seems to not accurately reflect some of the aggression I've seen from the WSOP.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
A cashgame player myself, this boggles my mind. I mean, I can understand avoiding plays that were +EV, but still dangerous in a tournament situation, but those are only plays with a slight +EV. The cards won't always hit in a tournament, and you only have 200BB to start the WSOP, (and less in other tourneys) and eventually, if you don't get cards, it's down to 30BB, when you're at that point, you're going to be making a LOT of plays with probable -EV.

I may be wrong in saying this, but i BELIEVE that if I were a seasoned tourney pro and everyone at my table pushed all-in to me and I saw AA, I'd call, knowing I only have a 30% chance of winning (obviously assuming it's a multitable)

Would I be wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not clear on what you're saying here...are you saying that if your opponent had AA? If so, why on earth would you call?

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]

That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

I’ve discovered the secret of getting Paul to post more often here – simply misquote him!

Seriously, thanks for correcting the record. Actually, I remembered both you and Fossilman saying good side of coinflip (~53%)was good enough to take early on, but felt that would be putting even stronger words in your mouth than hedging to 60-40. Oops!

--Greg

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is mathematically the right way to look at it, but there is no way any player in the universe is close to a 90% favorite to double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the increasing number of bad players in big tournaments, you could theoretically get to the point where a top player has a 90% chance of doubling his initial stack just by playing his normal game and not taking big gambles. I tend to agree, though, that no one is probably at that level currently. But I don't have any stats to prove it one way or the other, so that is why I gave my answer mathematically.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

Yes, I do not understand this concept either. In fact, I think the only time I would ever fold KK preflop would be when someone in EP calls, then moves all-in after a raise.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You'll take a 60% advantage, yet you'll fold KK to an early all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I assume we're talking about something like blinds are 25-50, I make it 150 out of my 10000, guy moves all-in. I've never seen him before and it's very early. This is an easy fold.

[ QUOTE ]
So pretty much if anyone goes all in early on in a tourney and you have no reads on him, then you think that he has aces 60+% of the time? This seems to not accurately reflect some of the aggression I've seen from the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that you do not have enough data to perform good bayesian analysis. Obviously if he shows me something other than aces I would call, but the very first time you see someone make a ridiculous all-in overbet, my experience is that you'll do MUCH better over time assuming they have the nuts and folding everything less than the nuts. If they are making a habit of this, you'll know it soon.

Every stage of a tournament is different and as it gets later such dramatic overbets become impossible because the average-stack-to-blind-size ratio shrinks so much. But if I have 200 big blinds, there's no way I'm putting them all in the middle preflop without aces unless I have meaningful evidence my opponent will do it with at least one hand other than aces and kings.

So I suppose in a sense I'm advocating "waiting for a better spot", but not because I am intentionally passing on an edge; rather because I have too little information to assess the edge, and I believe I'll have much better information in the very near future.

I did fold KK preflop in the first hour of the WSOP this year: the one and only time I've done that in a tournament.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You'll take a 60% advantage, yet you'll fold KK to an early all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I assume we're talking about something like blinds are 25-50, I make it 150 out of my 10000, guy moves all-in. I've never seen him before and it's very early. This is an easy fold.

[ QUOTE ]
So pretty much if anyone goes all in early on in a tourney and you have no reads on him, then you think that he has aces 60+% of the time? This seems to not accurately reflect some of the aggression I've seen from the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that you do not have enough data to perform good bayesian analysis. Obviously if he shows me something other than aces I would call, but the very first time you see someone make a ridiculous all-in overbet, my experience is that you'll do MUCH better over time assuming they have the nuts and folding everything less than the nuts. If they are making a habit of this, you'll know it soon.

Every stage of a tournament is different and as it gets later such dramatic overbets become impossible because the average-stack-to-blind-size ratio shrinks so much. But if I have 200 big blinds, there's no way I'm putting them all in the middle preflop without aces unless I have meaningful evidence my opponent will do it with at least one hand other than aces and kings.

So I suppose in a sense I'm advocating "waiting for a better spot", but not because I am intentionally passing on an edge; rather because I have too little information to assess the edge, and I believe I'll have much better information in the very near future.

I did fold KK preflop in the first hour of the WSOP this year: the one and only time I've done that in a tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

very good post and I agree with you.

Ok, how about this then(sorry if my continued hypothetical questions are annoying): What if a guy goes all in 3 times in the first hour preflop. The second time you hold pocket Ks...what do you do? If you fold that one, the third time you also have pocket Ks...what do you do?

Other than that your only reads on him are that he is an internet player. Not terrible, but definitely not on the level of the pros.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

Second time I probably call with kings. Maybe. Unless I think he's smart enough to have done it the first time to set me up for this. No, even then I call. If the poker gods are so cruel as to give me KK vs. AA against a guy who recently made a ludicrous overbet and is now making another, then I wasn't destined to win this tournament. I accept their punishment.

Anyway, I can always suck out.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did fold KK preflop in the first hour of the WSOP this year: the one and only time I've done that in a tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

That only puts you 3 behind Hellmuth in that category.

Kevin...

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

I think this is what makes Sklansky's all-in strategy so interesting.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

first hand, gotta be AA or I drop it

what a great story that would be - losing an all in preflop with AA - sure, yer first out, but no one could honestly blame you for it...

RB

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I assume we're talking about something like blinds are 25-50, I make it 150 out of my 10000, guy moves all-in. I've never seen him before and it's very early. This is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

At first when I read your post your points seemed to make perfect sense to me. Also I must point out that you have played immensely more hands than me and so you would be better suited to correctly play this situation than I.

However, what range of hands can you put your opponent on in this situation? I highly doubt somebody with AA would move all-in in this situation. It seems that even an incompetent player would probably either call or make a smaller raise in this situation. I'm not saying that moving in here with AA is necessarily wrong, (though I think it might be... is it?) but I think any pair between 66-QQ are nearly as likely as AA. Am I way off?

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I assume we're talking about something like blinds are 25-50, I make it 150 out of my 10000, guy moves all-in. I've never seen him before and it's very early. This is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

At first when I read your post your points seemed to make perfect sense to me. Also I must point out that you have played immensely more hands than me and so you would be better suited to correctly play this situation than I.

However, what range of hands can you put your opponent on in this situation? I highly doubt somebody with AA would move all-in in this situation. It seems that even an incompetent player would probably either call or make a smaller raise in this situation. I'm not saying that moving in here with AA is necessarily wrong, (though I think it might be... is it?) but I think any pair between 66-QQ are nearly as likely as AA. Am I way off?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree somewhat with this. You have to ask yourself: What is my opponent trying to accomplish with this bet? To me, it looks like he doesn't want any callers. Aces wants a caller.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

I read your post Paul(http://tinyurl.com/6mkfl).. so I take it you make that call w/ AA facing 9 all ins? You never specifically said in your post.. Just curious.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I read your post Paul(http://tinyurl.com/6mkfl).. so I take it you make that call w/ AA facing 9 all ins? You never specifically said in your post.. Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how anyone could read that entire post and not understand whether Paul would make the call. He only said about 10 times, in vehement and emphatic terms, that any good player has to make that call.

I share the amazement of others who fail to understand how there is still a debate over folding AA preflop. Oh noooooo... if you lose you're out... oh nooooo... you mean a good player doesn't win every single tournament he plays in?

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

I just reread that entire thread. It is hilarious. We have had many similar threads on 2+2.

Keb

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He only said about 10 times, in vehement and emphatic terms, that any good player has to make that call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh.. he does indeed insinuate that one would have to be foolish to not make the call, but he does not ever say whether he would actually do it or not. I don't believe that he actually would, given the context of the situation.

Lets say for the sake of argument, that you are at the WSOP
1st hand dealt, you're in the BB w/ AA.... ALL IN's all the way around to you. - Do you actually call?

In a vacuum... yes - because of the reasons Paul mentioned in his RGP article. But alas, poker is not played in a vacuum and you have to allow for some kind of + or - EV on future actions based on the information given. In the context of the situation, one would have to be FOOLISH to make this call w/ AA. Why you ask? Because after the 3rd or so all-in.. one would have to assume that the remaining 6 people who are about to go all in, are complete and utter morons, with little or no poker skill whatsoever. After all.. what could they possibly be pushing with after the 3rd all in? Probably much less than AA(since we have AA already).. so you know that it is likely that they will eventually be putting their chips in when they are at a huge disadvantage to our hand. Given that... that makes this an easy folding situation.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ahh.. he does indeed insinuate that one would have to be foolish to not make the call, but he does not ever say whether he would actually do it or not. I don't believe that he actually would, given the context of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
Paul isn't foolish. Of course he'd call.

[ QUOTE ]
.. so you know that it is likely that they will eventually be putting their chips in when they are at a huge disadvantage to our hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have AA. They will never be at a bigger disadvantage to our hand than they are right now.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He only said about 10 times, in vehement and emphatic terms, that any good player has to make that call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh.. he does indeed insinuate that one would have to be foolish to not make the call, but he does not ever say whether he would actually do it or not. I don't believe that he actually would, given the context of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do I have to do, say it in swahili? What kind of topsy-turvy world do we live in where a guy can say something ten different ways and still leave some people saying "ok he may have said it ten different ways, but not this eleventh way, so I don't think he meant it."

Of course I would call. I would call. Call. Yoda style: "Calling with this hand you are doing?" Yes. That.

[ QUOTE ]
In a vacuum... yes - because of the reasons Paul mentioned in his RGP article. But alas, poker is not played in a vacuum and you have to allow for some kind of + or - EV on future actions based on the information given. In the context of the situation, one would have to be FOOLISH to make this call w/ AA. Why you ask? Because after the 3rd or so all-in.. one would have to assume that the remaining 6 people who are about to go all in, are complete and utter morons, with little or no poker skill whatsoever. After all.. what could they possibly be pushing with after the 3rd all in? Probably much less than AA(since we have AA already).. so you know that it is likely that they will eventually be putting their chips in when they are at a huge disadvantage to our hand. Given that... that makes this an easy folding situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, barring the board making rainbow broadway or something equally improbable, eight out of nine of them are going broke this hand. I covered that aspect in one of the umpteen posts I wrote on rgp.

But even if they all could and would rebuy once for 10K after losing the nine-way all-in that you skipped, you'd still have been completely wrong to fold the aces.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

What about this situation.... 9 in front of you have gone all in, but based on some previous information you are 95-99% sure ONE of them also has aces (say there is another pro three seats in who calls for all his chips after two all ins).

I know the great theoretical situation of the family all in would never happen.... but how much would things changed if you just knew another player had aces....

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

I'd like to point out that the situation most people are describing is one that will just never happen. Sorry but I've never seen a sitation like this, it's just too perfect.
However (I give, I'll answer as if it were real), just call with the damn aces. Yeah it's mathematically wrong but so is everything about that situation. Paul is right (I guess we can agree on something), put the money in and roll the dice. At very least you'll get to have fun with everyone else whose fate hangs in the balance.

Cody

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

[ QUOTE ]
However (I give, I'll answer as if it were real), just call with the damn aces. Yeah it's mathematically wrong but so is everything about that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]


this just keeps getting better and better.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

I guess I'm a little slow, care to explain the sarcasam.

Cody

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

It isnt mathematically wrong to call. It is completely, utterly correct.

Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
 

I suppose I just don't like going in with a 30% (I'm not sure what the real percentage is, but it can't be much better if it's at all better) chance of winning, even if it means nonupiling up. Cash game, certainly. Tournement, which was what I thought we were talking about, no way. That's just the difference between the two, go broke and your done. Odds alone don't justify the call.
That said, if this bizarre situation happens, go for it, math be damnned, that's just to odd to pass up.

Cody