15/30 TT against a TAG
 

MP3 is a TAG. I have played almost 1,100 hands with him, though given that it's spread out over quite a few different screen names, I'm not sure if he realizes exactly how many hands he's played against me. He is definitely a winning player, very aggressive, though I've also seen him call down in situations where it was clear (at least to me) that he was beat. His VP$IP is 21, and his PFR is 9.

Needless to say, I don't go up against him that often, which is why I found this hand interesting.

The BB is a typical Party LAG.

Given all that, what hand do you put the TAG on and what should I do on the turn?


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Nightwish is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 <font color="purple">(TAG)</font> calls, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB <font color="purple">(Loosie)</font> calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Loosie bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">TAG 3-bets</font>, CO folds, SB folds, Loosie calls, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish caps</font>, TAG calls, Loosie calls.

Turn: (12 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Loosie checks, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">TAG raises</font>, Loosie folds

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

Night,

I give him A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], maybe A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I know the pot is big, but I'd let it go on the turn. I dont think he is gonna check behind this river, he's got ya. Also, even though the third player doesnt command a lot of respect, he gives a you little protection because it's harder for the TAG to make a move on you with him in the pot.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

Hmmm . . . TAG cold-called but didn't 3-bet. I'll take a shot and say he has something like big suited clubs, AJ or possibly KQ. It's very hard to imagine that he has a set or A2/A3/A5, even suited, or 44.

You need to call the turn bet. You're getting 15:1 and (assuming that he doesn't have the unlikely set or even more unlikely straight) have two T outs to win and three chop-outs in the non-club 4s.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt notice the 4 makes it a chop. That changes things a bit.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. He might also have AJ of clubs. But anyway these seem to be the only reasonable hands a winning TAG would call you with pre-flop assuming he knows your line of play, and then play the flop and turn the way he did.

-pete

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a TAG would call with AK suited especially if he thinks Nightwish is a TAG. He might want to try and play this multi-way rather than 3-betting and isolating Nightwish

-pete

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

AJ or AQ of clubs are good possibilities. 44 or 55 are also fairly likely. And if he's smart he might be making a move with 66-99 or JJ on the turn knowing you probably wouldn't cap with any hand that includes an ace and knows the turn card is definitely a scare card for you (unless you have AA).

I'd fold against most TAG players.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

You're probably up against A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but you could be facing, say K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 66, 77, 88, 99. There's enough doubt about your opponent's holding and you have enough outs to improve to a win / chop that you should simply call it down.

my 2 cents.
Eric

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

TAG player that cold-calls 2 pre-flop and 3-bets the flop? And then raises again on the turn? Screams big pair to me (although I'm not sure why he cold-called pre-flop, maybe a variation?). I'm done with this hand. I don't think he's on a flush draw since he'd be really cutting down the field with that flop 3-bet.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

I agree with the others that he most likely holds AcJc or KcQc.

That said, can you please explain to me what you're hoping to accomplish with the flop cap? Anyone else think that a better line is to call the three-bet and bet out on the turn if anything other than an ace a four or a club falls?

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
AJ or AQ of clubs are good possibilities. 44 or 55 are also fairly likely

[/ QUOTE ]

well put choppy.

I think AJ and KQ clubs is certainly possible, but I think 44, 55, 33, and 22 are also very valid holdings. I would overcall a raise even with 22 in his spot I think pre-flop. poor play?

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

Forget the TAG description if he's calling 2 cold with small pairs.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
That said, can you please explain to me what you're hoping to accomplish with the flop cap? Anyone else think that a better line is to call the three-bet and bet out on the turn if anything other than an ace a four or a club falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he puts him on overcards/clubs then he's jamming it with the best hand, forcing a draw to pay maximum value.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

why?

I consider myself TAG and i think calling 2 hear with 22 isnt a terrible play, but wnat to know if it is so I can stop doing it.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

I agree with the others that he most likely holds AcJc or KcQc

If he cold calls a good early player's open raise with either of these hands, he's not a TAG, he's just another Party clown.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

ed miller advocates cold-calling with these hands, unless i mis-interpret which is entirely possible, why is that a bad play?

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

If you label players based on one hand then you are mislabeling alot of players. Ever hear of mixing it up?

Orange

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

My VP$IP is around 17-18% and I regularly cold call 2 in multiway pots with small pairs.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the others that he most likely holds AcJc or KcQc

If he cold calls a good early player's open raise with either of these hands, he's not a TAG, he's just another Party clown.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC from SSH, those are 2 out of only 3 hands with which Ed Miller recommends cold-calling, the other being AQs.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

With one limper and 1 raiser, I think calling 2 cold with small pairs is a mistake. Too expensive, no guarantee that you will get multiway. On the button with 3 or 4 already in and I'm willing to discuss it.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

Mix it up by limping hand that you usually raise with. Or raising a hand you normally limp with. But cold calling with a hand that should be folded is not mixing it up, it's -EV.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



AK is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I didnt notice the 4 makes it a chop. That changes things a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]


I miss that too often. Calling is worth $9.20, with it.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

So since we all seem to be going to the river, how many are able to give up the river for one bet?

MATH question for Analyst or others
 

I posted this in the beginners forum but didn't quite get the answer...so if anyone wants to take the time to enlighten me I'd appreciate it.

Analyst wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
AK is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

[/ QUOTE ]

If there are 4 board cards, 2 in hero's hand and we "know" opponent has AcQc, that makes 8 known cards......why are you calculating your two T outs among 42 remaining cards instead of 44 (52-8)?

i.e. why 2/42 instead of 2/44

Thanks!

Re: MATH question for Analyst or others
 

[ QUOTE ]

If there are 4 board cards, 2 in hero's hand and we "know" opponent has AcQc, that makes 8 known cards......why are you calculating your two T outs among 42 remaining cards instead of 44 (52-8)?

i.e. why 2/42 instead of 2/44

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Because subtraction is apparently beyond Analyst's grasp . . . [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Let's try this:

2/44 * 450 = $20.45
3/44 * 225 = $15.34

Still an easy, easy call unless you think that there's ~~~20% or higher chance that villain has a set.

Sorry about that!

Re: MATH question for Analyst or others
 

np

None of the other posters objected so I thought I was missing something.

RESULTS
 

First of all, thanks to all who responded! Some very interesting discussion.

When the TAG called preflop, I put him on AQo, AQs, AJs, KQs, as well as pairs TT and lower. I don't think he would call with worse hands, and I think he would 3-bet with better hands.

So when he 3-bet the flop, I narrowed it down to AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, and once again pairs TT and lower. So unless he had 55/33/22, I was pretty sure I still had him beat, and the moron tagging along in the BB made it an easy cap for me.

Thus, I was somewhat surprised to see him raise the turn. Would he raise with anything that doesn't beat me? The only possibility is something like 99/88, but I would consider that a pretty sophisticated move. The reason I say that is that he needs to be fairly certain that he read me correctly for a high pocket pair and he needs to know that I'm capable of folding. The presence of the loosie in BB makes this move even more difficult.

Now comes the embarrassing part. I actually didn't even consider the outs for the chop. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] So since I was pretty sure that I was drawing to 2 outs, I mucked. Of course, the correct EV for calling (assuming he doesn't have a T or a 4) is:

(2/44)*15 + (3/44)*7.5 - 39/44 = 0.307 BB

So my mistake cost me $9. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Incidentally, the math above assumes that I'm capable of calling the turn raise and folding on the river without improvement. If I'm not, mucking is still the correct turn action.

Re: RESULTS
 

you didn't see his hand?

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he cold calls a good early player's open raise with either of these hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Reread the hand. This was not an open raise.

Re: RESULTS
 

No, I folded, and he didn't show.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
But cold calling with a hand that should be folded is not mixing it up, it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a meaningful distinction. Mixing it up is -EV. One way of playing any given hand has the highest EV and playing any other is -EV. When this loss of EV, that is (EV of best play) - (EV of play you make), is less than you think the future gain of altering yor image is you make the play. The cross from positive to negative EV is irrelevant.

Oh, I also don't call the two cold here. But I still thought this point was worth making. How you think about the game is alot more important that what decision you reach in one situation.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

I get your point. Variation that doesn't maximize the EV in the current situation lowers your overall EV. I meant you don't usually make a strongly *net negative* EV move for variation. I think we're on the same page.

To take it to the extreme, you wouldn't limp/raise with 23o UTG as a "variation" move. Maybe with 89s, if you're not giving up too much and it may have some image implications in the long run.