NFL betting - tips?
 

I have bet on football before but have no real strategy. I follow the season pretty closely and I know what teams are good to bet on and what not.

My question is how do you guys bet on the games? Straight up? Parlay? Other? I have been told by others that parlay's are a waste of money and shouldn't be attempted.

I'm looking for a smart way to bet on games; not a gambling fun way.

Thanks

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Parlays are a bad play. One the bigger things in sports gambling is control, if you are an action junkie you will never win. I normally play odd number amounts of games, such as 1, 3 or 5 wagers, never 2. if you play two games and go 1-1 you lose juice, If I play 3 games I have a better chance of going 2-1 and coming out ahead.
The next is studying, you need to study if your serious. I not only study all week, but I have pay alot of money each month for software to watch line moves at 50+ dif casinos both in vegas and offshore. Also, it's good to know bookies, find out where the money is going and go the other way, the general public is clueless and will lose.
Sometimes, if I hear more than a few people say they love so and so, bet the other way. Mostly though it's about studying and watching line moves, watching where the smart money is going etc.
I bet to win money, bottom line, I am not in it for the action. If I get ahead early in the week I guarantee that i am collecting at the end.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Concentrate on finding live underdogs and betting them on the money line. If you isolate four solid underdogs each week, you only have to go 2-2 to win, and occasionally you can go 2-3 and break even.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

A majority of my plays are underdogs, but I am not necessarily looking for an outright win, that's why I avoid the money line except in rare situations.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

First off avoid parlays- they are real bad mathematically speaking. Then ask yourself "What is my motivation for betting on sports?" If it is for pure entertainment value, go ahead and spread your bankroll around on high profile, televised football games using straight bets (pointspread with 10% juice on losses).

If you are serious about making money you need to isolate just a few games a weekend and hammer them- these games will tend to be more obscure matchups where the money flow is inconsistent and the oddsmaker may post a "weak number" (incorrect spread). I like Slacker's "odd number" game strategy- such as playing 3 games. Going 2-1 is virtually just as likely as going 1-2 but for most players, the thought of going 1-1 just stinks- they would rather have the satisfaction of "being up" and risk being down a game, rather than just breaking even minus the 10% juice...

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Can you explain the advantages/disadvantages of betting on the money line vs. betting the spread. I usually always bet the spread.

Also, can you explain the money line please?

Thanks.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

I personally always bet the spread. I will pick out a few good money line plays throughout the season but for the most part it's betting with the line.

A money line play is betting without a line but laying or getting odds instead. For example you can either take (below) Northwester +6.5 as your familiar with, or you can take northwestern +230, which means you lay $100 to win $230.
Or you can take TCU -6.5 or bet them with no spread involved and take TCU -275 which means you lose $270 on a $100 bet or you risk $275 to make $100.


NORTHWESTERN +6½
TCU -6½-

NORTHWESTERN +230
TCU -275

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can you explain the advantages/disadvantages of betting on the money line vs. betting the spread. I usually always bet the spread.

[/ QUOTE ]

In order to maximize your profits, you should consider both types of bets.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, can you explain the money line please?

[/ QUOTE ]

Baltimore Ravens +135
New York Giants -145

You're betting on who wins the game, regardless of how much they win by.

+135 means that if you bet on the (underdog) Ravens and they win, you win $135 for every $100 you bet.

-145 means that if you bet on the (favored) Giants and they win, you win $100 for every $145 you bet.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Thank you..much clearer now!

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you play two games and go 1-1 you lose juice, If I play 3 games I have a better chance of going 2-1 and coming out ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this. You also have a better chance of going 1-2. It is a long season. Why would it matter if you go 1-1 this week, for example, and 2-0 next week? You would still be up on the season. And if you are a losing bettor (i have no idea whether you are or aren't) you are going to lose either way. I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different. It is one long season; just like it is one long poker game. In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season. I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc... Just my two cents. Any thoughts appreciated.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you play two games and go 1-1 you lose juice, If I play 3 games I have a better chance of going 2-1 and coming out ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this. You also have a better chance of going 1-2. It is a long season. Why would it matter if you go 1-1 this week, for example, and 2-0 next week? You would still be up on the season. And if you are a losing bettor (i have no idea whether you are or aren't) you are going to lose either way. I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different. It is one long season; just like it is one long poker game. In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season. I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc... Just my two cents. Any thoughts appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't worry about individual weeks. Focus on being a winning bettor overall. If you're 1-1 on point spread games in week 1, you had a losing week, who cares? The important thing is to be betting with an advantage within your bankroll, and that means making profitable bets where you find them, regardless of whether you make an odd or even number of bets each week.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different.

[/ QUOTE ]
I play poker very well thank you.

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea.

[/ QUOTE ]
First of all, and I didn't really want to get into this but now I must, I have not lost betting sports (football) in 6-7 years so I am curious to hear how you do. I am one of the few who can with 100% honesty say that I win betting sports. Football Only, I am not very good at basketball or baseball and that is why I stay away from those sports.

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season.

[/ QUOTE ]
What? Having fun? if your betting simply to have fun then you shouldn't worry about the $5 -$10 dollars that is at risk. Ok, then why don’t you just bet parlays, there is no juice because you obviously expect to go 2-0 when you bet. My way of doing things is exactly that, my way. You don’t have to like it but it makes a lot more sense than betting 2 games, IMO you should bet odd numbers.

If I go 1-3, then yes I lose, if I go 0-3 then yes I lose but I do not expect to do those types of numbers. I am looking at 3-0, 2-1 or 3-2 where I make money, If i go 1-3 my losses are minimal and can be made up in another 2 games or the following week. If I am down I quit playing, if I am running cold I slow way down or quit and when i am up I always collect. That's proper money mgt.


[ QUOTE ]
I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc

[/ QUOTE ]
I can’t even answer this one. (scratching my head)

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't worry about individual weeks. Focus on being a winning bettor overall.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree and disagree with this. Your correct you should concentrate on being an overall winner but that is pretty much common sense, but someone like me who bets 98% of his action on football it is now narrowed down to a season, and weeks of a season. And because I collect on a weekly basis from a book then I base everything weekly with of course looking for an overall winning season.

I have been betting sports for quite awhile, and I am friends with guys who are also very good at betting sports (they taught me) but there are only a few of them, on the other hand I know one hell of a lot of people who are absolutely horrible at betting sports for a various amount of reasons, whether they are action junkies, bet the teams with the blue jerseys, whatever, bottom line they either have no control or do not take the time to study and make an effort to put the edge in their favor.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

All I was trying to say was that if your bets have +ev, it doesn't matter if you bet 5 games (does not happen a lot in the NFL unless you are getting great numbers at some square shops) or 2 games. I apologize, I guess I should have just said that. What I don't understand, is if you see 2 games that look really nice, will you not bet them if there is not a third game to bet? This is an honest question, not an attack of any kind.

Also, I never once questioned whether you are a winning player. In fact, I said, you may or may not be. But, in response to your comment, I am a winning player. My first year was horrible (I had no idea what I was doing), but my last few years have been really good; especially in NFL. But, I think the reason I have done well is not my handicapping ability, but by being able to find very very soft lines at square shops (though there is some handicapping in this as well).


Also, you made a comment about parlays. There are situations in baseball where betting parlays is very profitable; i.e. correlated parlays.

craig

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Sorry, maybe I read more into what you said. I apologize.

[ QUOTE ]
What I don't understand, is if you see 2 games
that look really nice, will you not bet them if there is not a third game to bet? This is an honest question, not an attack of any kind.


[/ QUOTE ]

Definately, keep in mind I am not betting all 3 or 5 games at once, this is spread out throughout the week and you should never force a third, or fifth or any game if it is not a good play. If you play 2 games and go 2-0 I am not saying you should bet 3 or 5 at all, it may be a good time to quit while ahead and collect. Maybe I wasn't clear when I wrote this. Also, you need to keep in mind that not all bets should be treated equal, some may be worth a higher wager amount etc. Let’s put it this way, if I was in a contest picking football for an entire season and had to submit x-amount of games per week I would give them either 1-3 or 5 games and never 2 or 4. My reasons may be a bit vague but the main reason is I cannot see going 1-1 and losing the juice. That’s it, nothing written in stone and maybe I shouldn’t have even mentioned it because to be honest explaining my reasons why I do it are harder than I thought, it’s just something I do and was taught to do by the guys who taught me sports betting.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Slacker,

When you are talking about line moves, are you saying the following?

Buffalo -3
Jacksonville

then if the line moves to

Buffalo -3.5
Jacksonville

then you would bet on Buffalo b/c that's where the money is going, or you would bet on Jacksonville b/c the general public are a bunch of idiots. Thanks for the advice and if you have anymore I'd really be interested in hearing it.

-Ftball

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you are talking about line moves, are you saying the following?

Buffalo -3
Jacksonville

then if the line moves to

Buffalo -3.5
Jacksonville


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes your correct, they are called steam plays but the key is knowing who is moving the line. Normally the smart money will come in right after the lines are set and right before kick off, it's the line moves in between those times that are driven by the general public. That's why I pay for the software I have because I get the line moves in real time so if i see Buf -3 and all of a sudden right before kickoff the jumps to 4.0 or 4.5 I know that the smart money has come in and effected that line and you would want to bet Buf. It's much better to have local bookies than offshore IMO that way when a line does move like that many of the local bookies do not react quick enough inmoving their lines and you can get very good value, it's very common in that situation to have a 1/2 pt to a point line difference and more in your favor.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the key is knowing who is moving the line.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the most important part. If it is public money, then one shouldn def. wait to bet the other side. I am a contrarian though.







[ QUOTE ]
That's why I pay for the software I have because I get the line moves in real time

[/ QUOTE ]

what is the software you use?

craig

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what is the software you use?

[/ QUOTE ]

I use Don Best DBS2K at http://www.donbest.com . It's a bit pricey at $550 a month but it pays for itself easily. You would have to be a decent sized bettor to warrant paying that money.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

thanks. i thought that might be what you use, but wanted to make sure. do you just pay for that during football season?

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
do you just pay for that during football season?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, most of the time, sometimes I will play line moves during the beginning of basketball but I am so bad at buckets that doesn't usually last long. Then I rely on others who know basketball and just piggy back their plays.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

I have a somewhat serious question for you. Suppose you bet 3 games a week for 16 weeks of Pro football. Now that is an even number of games right? What is the difference between you betting those 3 ganes a week for 16 weeks or betting 4 games a week for 12 weeks then stopping for one reason or another? You have made the same number of bets (48) which is an even mumber of total bets. If your win/loss record was identical during both betting periods the amount of money won/lost would also be identical.

Now do you see why there is nothing magical, smart, useful or different by betting an odd number of games a week?

Jimbo

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Jimbo, bet whatever you like. I am regretting even posting that at this point. To me it makes no sense to pick two games whether it's in a day week or whatever. If you go 1-1 you lose 10% juice on one side. If I have two games I like on a saturday I am either going to find a third or I am going to bet one. If I win one bet on Monday nite, then lose on thursday I am going to find a big game on Saturday to put me ahead. It's just the way I do things, nothing magical, nothing smart, etc...I already stated in an earlier post that I really have no explanation of why I do this. If you got two games you like and are confident in those two games you may as well just bet parlays then, but parlays are a suckers bet for a reason because most people cannot hit 2 games. They may be able to hit 1, they may be able to hit 2 out of 3 and if so they are still ahead.
Sorry, if you looking for scientific data to back up the way I do things it's not there. I am not here to brag, gloat, toot my own horn etc...but I win every year betting football, maybe because I am extremely controlled in the amount of plays, I never force a game and I only bet odd amount of games per week, I study my ass off, Im lucky, whatever it may be.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the difference between you betting those 3 ganes a week for 16 weeks or betting 4 games a week for 12 weeks then stopping for one reason or another?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don’t look over a month long period, as stated in another post I base everything on a per week basis and sometimes a per day basis, my week ends on Sunday and that’s how I base my week, I cannot worry about next week, where I may make just one big bet, or 5 bets.

I have to run, hurricane coming. Have a good one.

My Thoughts/Philosophy...
 

Here are my thoughts/philosohpy when it comes to sports betting. I am sure some will say that what I am about to say is BS, but if you have followed my picks thru the past 5 years here, you will know I am a winning sports bettor. Basically, I have been winning at sports betting for 9 straight years now. I work full time but my winnings have allowed me to buy a hot tub, big screen TV, new car a few years ago, trips to Vegas, etc. This is no BS, just the truth. Before I became a winning sports bettor, I, for many years, was basically a break even player. With the vig, I was a loser over the long haul. I finally decided batting .500 was a hell of a waste of time and money. I took a year off and literally spent it analyzing my plays for the past 15 years (I keep very detailed logs of my sports bets). The following is what I found, and it has led me to 9 straight years of profits from sports betting. I am not advocating what I am about to say to anyone, I am just telling you what worked for me and changed me from a loser to a winner.

I only bet the NFL (regular season), NBA playoffs and NCAA college hoops playoffs. I do bet an occasional college football game and it usually involves USC (my alma mater) and as evidenced by my picking them to cover against Virgina Tech a week ago, was a loser. One of the first things to remember is dont bet with your heart, bet with your head. I touted USC more because of my affinity to them, totally stupid thing to do. If you are serious, dont bet a team solely because they are your favorite team, or you went to school there or you are in love with Brett Favre. Make your decisions based on rational analysis, not because you love or hate one team or the other.
To be honest, I think there is not much of an advantage to comparing one teams offensive line against another teams defensive line. Some guys do in depth analysis, position by position match-ups. If you follow the NFL at all, you should know basically how one team stacks up against another. The line has incorporated all of this already for you. I do look at the injury charts but do not give much weight to when a big name is out (usually a QB, wide receiver, or running back). This is when I look at the offensive and defensive lines. This is where the majority of games are won. Big names that arent playing because they are hurt get the headlines and move the line, but its the O and D lines you want to focus on.
I also tend to play home favorites. Football is a very emotional game. Home field advantage is critical in football. A team is a favorite because they are the better team, period. What you want to find is a home favorite that is far superior to the other team and the line is not correct. I also only play 2-3 games a week, sometimes only one. I think it is a mistake to play a bunch of games.
I just noticed the time, I have to go home. I will post more tomorrow if anyone is interested.--Big Al--

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Slacker,

Thanks for the explaination. I'm very interested in sports betting and enjoy it immensely, however despite knowing alot about sports I was never comfortable betting with a point spread. Strangely enough I have always done best during the early rounds of the NCAA tourney. Big Al, I'd be interested in hearing more of what you have to say and slacker dodge those raindrops

Thanks,
-Ftball

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you play two games and go 1-1 you lose juice, If I play 3 games I have a better chance of going 2-1 and coming out ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this. You also have a better chance of going 1-2. It is a long season. Why would it matter if you go 1-1 this week, for example, and 2-0 next week? You would still be up on the season. And if you are a losing bettor (i have no idea whether you are or aren't) you are going to lose either way. I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different. It is one long season; just like it is one long poker game. In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season. I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc... Just my two cents. Any thoughts appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to write almost the exact same thing. I agree.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, maybe I read more into what you said. I apologize.

[ QUOTE ]
What I don't understand, is if you see 2 games
that look really nice, will you not bet them if there is not a third game to bet? This is an honest question, not an attack of any kind.


[/ QUOTE ]

Definately, keep in mind I am not betting all 3 or 5 games at once, this is spread out throughout the week and you should never force a third, or fifth or any game if it is not a good play. If you play 2 games and go 2-0 I am not saying you should bet 3 or 5 at all, it may be a good time to quit while ahead and collect. Maybe I wasn't clear when I wrote this. Also, you need to keep in mind that not all bets should be treated equal, some may be worth a higher wager amount etc. Let’s put it this way, if I was in a contest picking football for an entire season and had to submit x-amount of games per week I would give them either 1-3 or 5 games and never 2 or 4. My reasons may be a bit vague but the main reason is I cannot see going 1-1 and losing the juice. That’s it, nothing written in stone and maybe I shouldn’t have even mentioned it because to be honest explaining my reasons why I do it are harder than I thought, it’s just something I do and was taught to do by the guys who taught me sports betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said: 'I normally play odd number amounts of games, such as 1, 3 or 5 wagers, never 2'

NEVER 2. To me thats terrible advice. You should evaluate your number of plays based upon the number of worthwhile bets, not have some preconceived number of bets in your head. What if there are 2 great bets out there and all of the rest are 50/50s, which means you'll lose money on the juice in the long run? I just don't see your logic here.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am regretting even posting that at this point. To me it makes no sense to pick two games whether it's in a day week or whatever. If you go 1-1 you lose 10% juice on one side. If I have two games I like on a saturday I am either going to find a third or I am going to bet one.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the point isn't to have winning days, it is to have winning years. You should take the best bets only. Why take a not so good bet simply for the sake of being able to come out ahead for the week.

The following are facts:

1.If you bet 3 games as opposed to 2, you do indeed have a better chance at coming out ahead in the week.

2.You also have a better chance of coming out behind by more than a little bit(by more than the juice).

3.By taking bets that aren't your favorites, you are hurting your EV. Consider the following: Suppose you have $1000 to bet. There are 2 bets you like a lot. Both of those you consider to have a 60% chance of winning. There is one other bet that you think has a 52% chance of winning. To following your strategy, you bet $333 on each game. In reality, you'd be better off betting $500 on the two games at 60%. Do you see this logic?

4.If for some reason, you really insist on playing an odd number of games, and you have an even number of plays you like for that week, I think it'd be more +EV to drop your least favorite game and bet more on the others, rather than to add another game.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
NEVER 2. To me thats terrible advice. You should evaluate your number of plays based upon the number of worthwhile bets, not have some preconceived number of bets in your head. What if there are 2 great bets out there and all of the rest are 50/50s, which means you'll lose money on the juice in the long run? I just don't see your logic here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read my response to this same question. I am no longer going into this. You do whatever it is you do to win, I wish you the best of luck.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

It's amazing all the experts on this subject. I win period, I need not prove anything to anyone on this forum, if you look at it as bad advice then so be it, I am gald you do well betting sports, Good Luck!

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's amazing all the experts on this subject. I win period,

[/ QUOTE ]

It has nothing to do with being an expert handicapper. Actually even if I had never heard of football, did not know the rules of the game or how a winner was determined but only understood how winning/losing bets were calculated and paid I would know that your odd game theory was incorrect. This is what you are missing, it is mathmatically incorrect and has nothing to do with being a winning player. In fact I am 100% sure that if you did not insist on making an odd number of plays per week you would have won more money in the last 8 years than you have.

Jimbo

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's amazing all the experts on this subject. I win period, I need not prove anything to anyone on this forum, if you look at it as bad advice then so be it, I am gald you do well betting sports, Good Luck!

[/ QUOTE ]

Slacker, nobody is questioning your sports betting expertise. Everyone, however, is questioning your money management and game selection expertise. Your advice is logically unsound. You have a preset number of games you want to play....this is wrong! You're great at picking winners; You're terrible at understanding the logic behind this issue.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Slacker, nobody is questioning your sports betting expertise. Everyone, however, is questioning your money management and game selection expertise. Your advice is logically unsound. You have a preset number of games you want to play....this is wrong! You're great at picking winners; You're terrible at understanding the logic behind this issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since more that one poster has said this I sat back and really thought this out, why I do that etc.. I myself am really questioning this now. I think I have stuck with this simply because it has always worked for me even though there was no logic behind it and maybe it's comes down to "if it's not broke don't fix it" type of thing. I also contacted one the guys who first started teaching me the in's and outs of sports gambling and asked them why they taught me this way and he basically said it was more for control than anything, so that I wouldn't be betting numerous amounts of games per day/ per week etc... And maybe I too found very little logic in it at the time but like I said it worked for me and I continued on without questioning the reasons why.
I do not always adhere to this practice, but I have been following it way too much and I need to re evaluate the way I have been doing things.
I apologize if I came off like an ass, I simply felt as though I was getting slightly attacked here for something that has been very successful for me but I do understand your’s and Jimbos point and even though I like to think of myself as a very logical person maybe this is one that slipped passed me. Anyway, thanks for the advice, hopefully I can return the favor by giving you some winners.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

I didnt read the posts, so somehow may have said this, but play

DOGS and UNDERS and get a good number, have 2 outs at minimum, should have 3 really.

Re: My Thoughts/Philosophy...
 

I'm interested. Any tips for betting NBA Playoff games?

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

Teasing games over key #'s is the most simplistic way to give yourslef a chance at winning.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

have 2 outs at minimum, should have 3 really.

Yikes!!

I have 12 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

i was just about to comment on that, sublime.

craig

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Slacker, nobody is questioning your sports betting expertise. Everyone, however, is questioning your money management and game selection expertise. Your advice is logically unsound. You have a preset number of games you want to play....this is wrong! You're great at picking winners; You're terrible at understanding the logic behind this issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since more that one poster has said this I sat back and really thought this out, why I do that etc.. I myself am really questioning this now. I think I have stuck with this simply because it has always worked for me even though there was no logic behind it and maybe it's comes down to "if it's not broke don't fix it" type of thing. I also contacted one the guys who first started teaching me the in's and outs of sports gambling and asked them why they taught me this way and he basically said it was more for control than anything, so that I wouldn't be betting numerous amounts of games per day/ per week etc... And maybe I too found very little logic in it at the time but like I said it worked for me and I continued on without questioning the reasons why.
I do not always adhere to this practice, but I have been following it way too much and I need to re evaluate the way I have been doing things.
I apologize if I came off like an ass, I simply felt as though I was getting slightly attacked here for something that has been very successful for me but I do understand your’s and Jimbos point and even though I like to think of myself as a very logical person maybe this is one that slipped passed me. Anyway, thanks for the advice, hopefully I can return the favor by giving you some winners.

[/ QUOTE ]

No bad feelings at all man. I definitely expect to learn a lot from you, as I'm trying to get a lot better at picking football.

I think that your advice actually may be okay for a beginner(which was the initial point of this thread) because many beginner's need the reassurance of seeing positive results each week in order to not go on 'tilt'(if I could use that word with sports betting). However, with a more established gambler, I think he can handle a losing week, and therefore he should simply stick to optimum plays.

Anyway, it made for a good discussion, and as I said, I'm definitely looking forward to learning from you this year. Best of luck.

Re: NFL betting - tips?
 

[ QUOTE ]
have 2 outs at minimum, should have 3 really.

Yikes!!

I have 12 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no clue what you guys are talking about [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]