15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

This reminds me a bit of the 30/60 discussion in the other hand.

I have no real read on the opponents. What should I do?


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Nightwish is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG caps</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Nightwish calls, Button calls.

Flop: (18.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Every single day i play the 15 i think the 3 bet preflop sucks more and more yet seems so standard. It just doesn't have a good chance of getting rid of the blinds (it really sucks in this case because of the 2 limpers), the players are (in this case) correctly loose postflop and we aren't dominating much yet have a good risk of a big pair. I'd consider this a simple call.

Fold the flop, i really couldn't care about my 20:1 odds because my 9 isn't good 100% of the time and [censored] taking this to showdown. Oh yea, you aren't closing the action, this is a v. easy fold.

White Stripes - Jack the Ripper.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

20.66:1 on the call...21.66:1 in my mind b/c the button has done nothing but call the whole time and there's nothing to suggest he won't call here nor does it seem he'll raise. if he does though, its likely you won't be able to call the 2 or 3 back. that doesn't seem likely though so i call here.

UTG limped and capped, its like 5:1 or less that he's got aa in my mind because whenever i see that given the action it is almost always UTG saying "its gunna get capped anyway so let me do it for deception."

also, assuming utg has a great hand it can be AKs or AKo along w/ aa. QQ doesn't seem too likely from utg and you should only fear it from MP2. if MP2 is a very good player then QQ certainly a likely hand, but we don't see many great players on party now do we [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ...

anyways, if you hit on the turn you'll likely collect many bets in addition to the pot which is now 20.66bbs and likely 22.66 by the turn. also, when you lose many bets after hitting you can at most lose 8bbs. also, you can fold on the turn when you miss.

therefore, all things considered, i call.

-Barron

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I agree-- I don't do the raising to isolate with smaller pocket pairs anymore at the Party 15/30. It doesn't work.

-rory

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree-- I don't do the raising to isolate with smaller pocket pairs anymore at the Party 15/30. It doesn't work.

-rory

[/ QUOTE ]

what about the flop?
-Barron

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Your flop analysis is correct.
-James

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Run the math that you are only good 1 in 6 times when you hit and button raises 50% - 20%. It's a fold. Give yourself ~6SBs (when not raised) in implied odds too.

The fact that the button gets the raise button on his screen here makes these long shot draws a fold. You want 22:1, say you are getting 20:1 he raises you are getting 10:1, he raiss 50% of the time 15:1, 30% 17:1. Given that you could get there and lose and lose more BBs makes this a fold.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Every single day i play the 15 i think the 3 bet preflop sucks more and more yet seems so standard. It just doesn't have a good chance of getting rid of the blinds (it really sucks in this case because of the 2 limpers), the players are (in this case) correctly loose postflop and we aren't dominating much yet have a good risk of a big pair. I'd consider this a simple call.

Fold the flop, i really couldn't care about my 20:1 odds because my 9 isn't good 100% of the time and [censored] taking this to showdown.

White Stripes - Jack the Ripper.

[/ QUOTE ]

i totally agree with your preflop analysis. its also great b/c it "saves" a bet on the flop if you agree w/ me and call b/c the pot won't warrant it.

but in this case you can't just toss implied odds out the window and say i fold here.

despite the fact that whenever we disagree you turn out to be correct 80-90% of the time im sticking to my guns on this one. the turn is too easy to play if you miss your nine. if it hits the worst that can happen is you lose 6-8bb's..BUT that 6-8bb loss will happen so rarely given the action that its worth taking that risk in my mind. do you really see AA in utg's hand? since you do play that 15 game every day, do you aggree with my about 5:1 against aa FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE?? i often see that limp reraise/cap and it so often turns out to be a pair or JTs or something like that thinking its gunna get capped anyway and the person wants to gamble. so when you hit your nine and win you will likely win at least 3 bb's from those 2 so that's 6 plus the 10.5-11 thats already in there and it'll fall 1 in 22.5 times. and you'll win 34 or more bets when it does and holds up. (Assuming bet call raise fold call call. check check bet call call)

-Barron

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Run the math that you are only good 1 in 6 times when you hit and button raises 50% - 20%. It's a fold. Give yourself ~6SBs (when not raised) in implied odds too.

The fact that the button gets the raise button on his screen here makes these long shot draws a fold. You want 22:1, say you are getting 20:1 he raises you are getting 10:1, he raiss 50% of the time 15:1, 30% 17:1. Given that you could get there and lose and lose more BBs makes this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

first, i just pulled 1/6 out of nowhere and its likely less than that given how much more likely AK/AKs is than AA or QQ (not to mention JTs or small pair gambling) and that the button has done NOTHING but call. why would he suddnely raise here? its much less than 30% he'll raise in my mind.

-Barron

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Button called 3 cold. While this is party poker i'd imagine this gets raised about 20% of the time here.

I actually think the 5:1 behind figure is higher. Limpreraises are usually about AA 40% KK 20% QQ 10% AK 20% Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.

Regardless, even considering the chance we may hit our long shot draw and lose makes this a fold.

Lemon Jelly - Experiment Number 6.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Button called 3 cold. While this is party poker i'd imagine this gets raised about 20% of the time here.

I actually think the 5:1 behind figure is higher. Limpreraises are usually about AA 40% KK 20% QQ 10% AK 20% Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.

Regardless, even considering the chance we may hit our long shot draw and lose makes this a fold.

Lemon Jelly - Experiment Number 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i just flat disagree with your numerical assesments here. aa 40% puts it at 3:2 against. i'd say its a longer shot than that given my experience. is there a way for me to see that from poker tracker? (i.e. what is the count of limpreraises to hands etc...?) further, there are no reads given. the button called 3 cold, yes. that makes me think he has precisely a low pair hoping to hit a set or something like QJs or KQs which i've also seen, not to mention A9s which a lot of people have trouble tossing away. he'll be looking to get to a showdown more than the 4:1 that you're giving against his raise. also, you started at 50% and now down to 20% so you must agree that the raise is a longer and longer shot than you initially supposed.

anyways, this may be a case where we just never end up converging as opposed to the usual case where i hang my head in shame, and you prove to be correct again and i learn one more thing from you....here i think my analysis is what i'd do and what i'd recommend night should do.

-Barron

EDIT: PS- what is with you're new sign outs? lemon experiment? and the first one?

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.


[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad there are not more of them.

Orange

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.


[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad there are not more of them.

Orange

[/ QUOTE ]

77-99no....but i've seen that limp cap all the way down to 22...

-Barron

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Lets just put AA and QQ as 10% shots and say it never gets raised behind you.

Over 230 hands.

220 times you lose 1SB. -220bb

9 times you win. 21SB + 6SB in implied. +243SB

1 time you lose 1SB + 6SB in implied. -7bb.

net, +0.072BB per hand.

Say 20% of the time he has it. -220b + 216 - 14 = -0.078 per hand.

So 15% looks the breakeven number. This is without the button being allowed to raise once he raises your pot odds and implied odds get cut in half.

Levellers - Just The One

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I don't need to go further as I agree with 800gambler 100%.

The only time the 3 bet pre-flop works is when you have a chance of getting the flop checked to you most of the time, and you can get a free look at the turn. From what I've heard about this game, that sounds like never.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

i dont see the similarity at all. utg capped it preflop and the flop is now AQx and someone is calling him as well. you have just about the easiest possible fold in all of creation.

dont call for implied odds theyre not there because you may be drawing only to runner runner quads. fold fold fold fold fold. this one is very far from close.

oh one more thing: a big part of this is i dont trust you or other players to fold on the turn here enough. you will decide the pots too big and it's time to call down now and make him (them?) show you it. yuck. reverse implied call down hell.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

nice. one more thing to think about are the other players in the pot. there will be times 99 makes a set that beats utg (or that 99 is good on the flop or even the turn) but then hero is beat by one of the other players making a bigger hand. this is different then just looking at a heads up decision.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I agree with 1800gambler's hand analysis, and music choices, as well.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I've seen people limp rr with a much broader group of hands than the ones you suggest.
-James

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Yea. Me too. This is still a fold.

Oasis - The Girl in the Dirty Shirt

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

That flop would make me wish I folded my 9s preflop rather than making a futile attempt to isolate.

RESULTS
 

I folded for the reasons outlined by mike l and GAMBLER (one of the few times GAMBLER and I seem to agree [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). The biggest problem was that I wasn't closing the action. The guy behind me called 3 bets cold, which in this game means either a suited A or a pair. I would call if I knew for a fact that there would be no raise behind me, but a raise felt likely here.

Sure enough, the guy behind me raised, and the rest of the field just called. The turn was the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Ouch.

It was checked to the raiser, he bet, and only the preflop limp-reraiser called. The river was the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], making the board

[4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The limp-reraiser now check-folded.