up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

super loose passive where the hell am i game.

EDIT: passive but not retarded, as in if somebody hits a good hand they'll raise but not many moves being made as is normally the case.

i get JcJs on the button, 6 limpers i raise everybody calls (blinds included) NINE of us for 2 bets...

Qs8s6c. every single person checks to me...i bet, 5 callers. 6 of us to the turn for 12 bbs.

Qs8s6c[As]. every single person checks to me. i ?

-Barron

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Keep betting, on the rare chance you are ahead every fold is so valuable.
-James

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Keep betting, on the rare chance you are ahead every fold is so valuable.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

a few notes: people playing Axo(s) can hit two pair. flush got there. if i bet and have to call a few more bets back to me i would have wished i checked. at the same time, if i check and let somebody with T8 hit two pair i will have cost myself the pot.

saying it like that makes me pretty sure i should bet because in the long run at WORST it's between a .25 and 1bb mistake (if most of the times i have to call 3 bbs thats a worst case scenario it still won't happen that often), but the times i don't bet the mistake is huge...

shoulda thoughta that before i posted lol. thanks james
-Barron

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

I think because the pot is so big even the rarest of times that you are ahead(and the fact that you might even gain value from calls if your possible 11 out draw is good) make this bet good even though it feels so wrong. If you described these players as smarter or more aggressive, however, I'd be more inclined to check.
-James

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Just the fact you have Js makes this a bet. You easily have overlay given your chances you are ahead + chances you are drawing. Gettng raised by the player on my right would make me choke on my own vomit though.

RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gettng raised by the player on my right would make me choke on my own vomit though.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, my sentiments exactly...but you and james are right and i should definately bet.

now i think i'll post the results here:

i pussied out and checked. river pairs the bottom card. checked to a guy 2 to my right. he bets folded to me i obviously call and a guy in ep raises one cold caller and the original bettor calls and i fold (that is the one thing on the later streets im 100% sure is correct). ep riaser flips over a king and the paired bottom card for trips. the other two guys had a queen and a lone ace respectively.

-Barron

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Wow, I'm really surprised. You get 5 flop callers and everybody wants you to fire again just because you have the second nut flush draw? This pot is so big, I cant see you winning in unimproved, and there is no way you are ahead. I would also fear the player on my right may cut down the field on me which would really suck.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I'm really surprised. You get 5 flop callers and everybody wants you to fire again just because you have the second nut flush draw? This pot is so big, I cant see you winning in unimproved, and there is no way you are ahead. I would also fear the player on my right may cut down the field on me which would really suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats why i posted it originally but don't you think given the value of the draw you may have its worth a bet plus the fact i might be ahead, plus the fact i may get correct callers to fold plus the fact it'll rarely be more than 1 more bet back to me?

-Barron

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

[/ QUOTE ]

thats why i posted it originally but don't you think given the value of the draw you may have its worth a bet plus the fact i might be ahead, plus the fact i may get correct callers to fold plus the fact it'll rarely be more than 1 more bet back to me?

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but I think we can rule out the times when you either fold a better hand or get called by a worse hand because that just wont happen very often with 5 flop callers and that turn card. Your draw does has value, and you may get called in a few spots considering the amount of money in the pot, but how about the times when you are up agaist the K of spades, that might add a little to the case for checking as well. Personally I think you played your hand fine, but I'll be interested in reading some of the other responses.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

I don't think it's worth it. I much prefer to take the free card here. The chances you have the best hand are getting pretty close to zero.

-Michael

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's worth it. I much prefer to take the free card here. The chances you have the best hand are getting pretty close to zero.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

more and more players whose opinion i respect take differing lines...

how much of a mistake does each side of it cost? what are the real values of each side..

these simple questions i'mhaving trouble enumerating b/c i always seem to think in a full circle back to betting..

help..
-Barron

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Just the fact you have Js makes this a bet.

If you think there's any chance you're ahead you should be more likely to bet without the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] than with it. Not having the flush draw makes you much more vulnerable to being beaten by a free card.

Gettng raised by the player on my right would make me choke on my own vomit though.

That's a pretty good reason to check.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]

at the same time, if i check and let somebody with T8 hit two pair i will have cost myself the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

Admittedly i don't play these stakes and have never even watched a game, but it seems to me that the pot is so large, the only hand that can outdraw you which might fold on the turn is one containing a non-spade K and nothing else worthwhile, and this guy only has two outs. I really doubt checking it through on the turn costs you much.

If someone with T8 is going to fold to your bet, you should definitely bet, though.

Guy.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

i mean that it will be a bigger mistake than checking could be if i don't make him pay for that 5 outer... but if he'll 100% call anyway its really only a fraction of a bet and not the pot.

-Barron

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Whenever the decision is that close, I would rather err on the side of the aggressive, thus I would bet (and of course likely be chkrasd).

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Eh.

Us having the flush draw increases the value of our hand because it increases the chances we win at showdown. We are ahead here a % of the time and we will improve a % of the time, these two added up should very well give us overlay the majority of the time against callers hence we are making money. The only time we aren't is when a raise like that happens.

Without the Js we may or may not be getting overlay on our bet, it's just a lot less likely.

I don't check here just because i have outs. Having the Js no way makes me more likely to check.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

bet it.

even if you are behind you have the odds to draw to a flush which isn the 2nd nut, the odds of you hittin in on the turn is 4.1 to 1. And with 5 to 6 opp, calling your turn bet you really don't mind if they all call.

Ohh my goodness you can spike a set too, so add 2 more outs to your hand, so with 11 outs, you really don't mind getting called or even raised because you have a lot of equity in this pot.

Bet! Throw those chips in.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

I check.

There's close to 0 chance of still having the best hand at this point. Assuming your J outs are good, you are about 3:1 to improve. So if you can get 4 or more callers and if no one raises and if no one has the K of spades, betting for value would be a good play. But that's one too many ifs for me.
Also, it was mentioned that betting could get some hands to fold incorrectly. However, no better hands will fold here so the only hands you will fold are hands with a marginal draw (middle pair, gut-shot straight draw) which may or may not have the correct odds to see the river. However, these hands are only taking away from your equity if you currently have the best hand. But since you need to improve to the best hand, and the hand you are drawing towards is basically the 2nd nuts, you don't have to worry about one of these draws improving on the river to beat your hand because if you hit your draw on the river, you will have the best hand most of the time (K of spades isn't going anywhere obviously), and if you don't, you didn't have the best hand anyways. So really, the people that would fold incorrectly are taking away equity from people who are holding hands like AT or KQ without a spade, not from you.

I'd say there's less than 5% chance of you still having the best hand right now and that's not enough for me to bet here.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

I disagree. Checking will not be a big mistake here. You are still assuming that you have the best hand on the turn. What do you think the chances of that are? I don't think it's very high. There's really no need to get those 5-outers to fold or pay as they are taking away pot equity from your opponents who have a lone Q or A and without a spade, not from you. The only times they are taking equity from you is when you still have the best hand, which I think is less than 5% here, perhaps much less.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

What are the odds that 9 people see a flop and no one has a Q? Or an A? Or 2 spades? (Also, when did everyone just decide to discount the presence of FIVE callers?)

Why anyone wants to open up the betting again here is beyond me. The ace of spades now makes it a virtual lock that you're losing given the flop action. This is the reason the button is so valuable, take the free card and hope for a spade.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

what choppy said

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
i should definately bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Re: RESULTS
 

with the choppy and astro camp here. I check because again there are 5 callers and the chances of me being ahead at this point are slim to none

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

Well, there's a big chance I'm behind but there's also a good chance I have outs. So I check.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

i'm very surprised at a lot of the answers here.

the argument for betting to drop someone with a low pair is ridiculous. you ARE beat here. somebody has an ace. if not an ace, a queen. getting that T8 to fold so he won't hit two pair is pointless, because if you can't beat two pair, you're going to have nothing but a pair of jacks, and you're not going to win this pot with a pair of jacks.

you could argue that you could bet here to get queens to fold, but i doubt many queens would fold with 13 BB in the pot and more to come. but there's aces out there anyway that won't fold, so who cares if the queens fold.

the only reasonable argument for betting is to build the pot in case you hit your 11/9/2/0 outer, but is there really any value in this? probably not. unless you can be certain everyone will call, you're just charging yourself money to see the river... but there's also a strong possibility of being check-raised by a king high flush/pair of aces/two pair/whatever, in which case you may be drawing dead or to 2 outs but you'll have to call to see the river which you'll probably miss. and when the rag comes, it'll be tough to lay down your pocket pair to one bet with the pot this huge.

Re: up a creek...where\'s that damn paddle...JJ
 

I check, not planning to even call a bet on the end without hitting the flush