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-   -   Weird science... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=116479)

fnurt 08-25-2004 12:15 AM

Weird science...
 
Strange things happen in the Stars rebuy. Here is one example.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t14220)
Hero (t10185)
MP2 (t12090)
MP3 (t935)
CO (t12160)
Button (t41085)
SB (t6365)
BB (t8845)
UTG (t16130)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t800</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t600.

Flop: (t1800) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets t600</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t2600</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t4600</font>, Hero calls t2000.

Turn: (t11000) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets t1000</font>, Hero calls t1000.

River: (t13000) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets t1000</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t3760</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: t17760

I honestly have no idea what was going on in this hand. How was I SUPPOSED to play it?

La Brujita 08-25-2004 12:29 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
Shouldn't you fold to the river bet? Oh wait... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Looks like you played it very well. Did you think of pushing on the turn as a semibluff after the tiny turn bet by your opponent?

durron597 08-25-2004 12:47 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
It looks to me like UTG had a very poorly played 99 or 66... he clearly has no concept of pot odds. I agree with La Brujita, you played the hand perfectly.

ethan 08-25-2004 12:57 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
Looks like you played it fine, although pushing the turn's a plausible line too. What was your plan going into the turn? (Or is the point of this post that you didn't have one? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) More specifically, what would you have done if he pushed instead of making that weak bet? After just calling the turn bet, what do you do on a river blank?

I'm really not sure what your opponent could have had looking at how things played out...99 maybe? ATs would push the turn, right? I guess he put you on a draw or better pair and got scared when both the possible OESDs and the flush hit. I have trouble imagining him playing a no-pair hand this way.

donny5k 08-25-2004 12:58 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
I might have put it all-in on the flop after the strange minimum reraise he made.

Potowame 08-25-2004 01:13 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
Another hand of yours I watched that was crazy was your trip JJJ vs. 77

What was that guy doing calling off all his chips to you with 77 lol. Looks like you have been visited early by Santa this year and he is bring lots of chips,lol.
Playing great.

ethan 08-25-2004 01:49 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
The 77 might have thought he was against the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and actually ahead. Calling all-in with a 7-high flush draw seems questionable, but if the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] read was off and he was actually behind then he'd still have outs.

Potowame 08-25-2004 02:44 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
I think his play, from preflop to the turn was questionable. called a early position large raise preflop with a weak PP. called pot size bet on the flop , with two overs and possible against a stronger PP, than called rest of his chips off with three overs and still the possiblity of a stronger PP.
And all these calls against a player that has played very soild the whole game. possibly against a manic, or really lose player, but not in that situation. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Jason Strasser 08-25-2004 03:16 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
Fnurt,

I dont like your flop play, I think calling is a poor idea. You have FD/2 overs. You are not going to be very far behind anything, and you have folding equity. Calling sucks because when you miss the turn you may have to fold. Pushing really can't be far from wrong in this spot. I wouldn't have called his reraise, but pushed.

-Jason

durron597 08-25-2004 10:23 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
Hm... Jason, if you really feel that way, then I'll have to remember the "pot committing, pot odds set move in my playbook".... though if I had a set here and my opponent used fnurt's line I definitely push the turn.

fnurt 08-25-2004 10:41 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Fnurt,

I dont like your flop play, I think calling is a poor idea. You have FD/2 overs. You are not going to be very far behind anything, and you have folding equity. Calling sucks because when you miss the turn you may have to fold. Pushing really can't be far from wrong in this spot. I wouldn't have called his reraise, but pushed.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt like I had more folding equity by saving my money for later. I don't think someone raises the flop in the way he did with the intention of folding to a reraise.

I agree that I can't be very far behind, but I still didn't want to gamble vs. some crappy pair, and I thought I would have a better chance to get him off that pair later. I really don't understand what he had though.

Bernas 08-25-2004 11:14 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
Whatever he had he knew it couldn't beat a flush. Looks like he correctly put you on a flush draw and tried to confirm it with his small river bet.

He probably had a decent pocket pair.

fnurt 08-25-2004 12:37 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Whatever he had he knew it couldn't beat a flush. Looks like he correctly put you on a flush draw and tried to confirm it with his small river bet.

He probably had a decent pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're right that he put me on a flush draw, then he was pretty dumb to bet almost nothing on the turn, wasn't he?

Bernas 08-25-2004 01:56 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
For Sure. Maybe I was giving him more credit than he deserved. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Maybe he just a really bad player who had no idea what he was doing. Sometimes we try to read to deep into a persons play. Maybe he just has no clue.

Jason Strasser 08-25-2004 02:10 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
Fnurt,

Let's be real, your opponent played this hand very poorly. Every possible hand he had, including absolutely nothing, can not be represented for by his actions.

While you say that he didnt have intentions to fold to a reraise on the flop, you are assuming too many things. If you had posted this hand, and stopped telling us what happened as he raised you on the flop, everyone would probably say push or fold. Calling sucks because an average to good opponent will push this turn everytime, especially with a hand that can make that sort of flop raise.

I personally don't pass on these small edges very often. You can play scared of a pair, but you are going to often be ahead in this hand enough in my view to make it profitable. The fact that:

1) Your opponent *could* fold to a flop all-in, so you do have folding equity, and that
2) Your opponent could have a draw without a pair

Make this a push for me. I suppose you could take the cautious rout and call the flop and check/fold to an all-in on the turn. But I am much more apt to take the aggressive approach here, even though it may be slightly reckless. I'd rather take a coinflip, then check/fold on the turn when I miss my outs, but that's just me.

-Jason

P.S. If you were against an expert opponent who may have read you for a draw, this is even a better reason to get your chips all-in on the flop, because you may not get paid out if you hit your spade on the turn. An ace also may kill your action. This would be a disaster, to call, hit the draw, and not get paid off. If you knew this was going to happen, then you can in no way justify flat calling the flop.

Jason Strasser 08-25-2004 02:13 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
[ QUOTE ]
I felt like I had more folding equity by saving my money for later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but in the long run wont the value of your hand also decrease as you miss your outs 1/3-1/4 of the time on the turn? And who says you will have folding equity on the turn, don't you expect him to bet the turn at the least? And normally push the turn?

I'm not sure how you can say you have more folding equity waiting. The only explanation for this would be that your opponent has a draw, and will miss his hand later. Most of the scare cards in the deck help you, so if they hit on the turn you would have folding equity, but you would also be ahead.

Tosh 08-25-2004 02:20 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
[ QUOTE ]

I felt like I had more folding equity by saving my money for later. I don't think someone raises the flop in the way he did with the intention of folding to a reraise.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is you need a lot more folding equity by waiting because you will have less equity in making your hand after you miss on the turn.

fnurt 08-25-2004 02:24 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
These are very good points, and the kind of help I was looking for when I posted the hand to boot. Part of my thinking was that I expected to have a call on the turn in any event (do I?). If it's going to be a fold on the turn if I miss, then I agree that I definitely have to push on the flop.

SossMan 08-25-2004 04:15 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
[ QUOTE ]
I felt like I had more folding equity by saving my money for later.

[/ QUOTE ]

....

[ QUOTE ]
Part of my thinking was that I expected to have a call on the turn in any event (do I?). If it's going to be a fold on the turn if I miss, then I agree that I definitely have to push on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

these thoughts seem incongruent.

I like Jason's line of pushing the flop, unless you are against a set, you cannot be far behind, and you get him to fold even top pair many times. You are ahead of TP if he doesn't share a kicker, so might as well get the chips in while you have FE and are most likely ahead. If he flopped big, then go ahead and river the nuts.

fnurt 08-25-2004 04:38 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
The thoughts are incongruent because I don't know whether he will push on the turn (and in fact, he didn't).

SossMan 08-25-2004 05:05 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
then it seems you were playing it based on the hope that he would price you in on the turn. I guess what I'm saying is that you either make a play for it on the flop, or hope he prices you in on the turn. If the turn bricks and he bets anything, you no longer have much FE and don't really have much but probably 9 or 12 outs...if that, it might be 7 outs.

Jason Strasser 08-25-2004 07:44 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
Fnurt,

The decision on what to do on the turn when you miss is so tough, and can be avoided. If you hit, you may not get paid off. If you miss, a fold is probably correct to an all-in, but I'm not sure about it. Either way, you WILL have more FE on the flop because you can expect your opponent to bet into you almost all the time on the turn, which means better odds to call. This logic that you can wait for more FE is incorrect. It would maybe hold some merit if you were first to act, but because you don't have position, expect a bet into you on the turn and therefore less FE.

-Jason

fnurt 08-25-2004 09:44 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
Very good points. Thanks for the comments all.

DaffyDuck 08-25-2004 11:23 PM

Re: Weird science...
 
Isn't it possible he called preflop with 77,44,TT and hit his set? Now he puts out a 1/3 pot bet as he wants to build the pot. He may not want to check raise fearing overcards would check and get a free card. When he is raised he re-raises hoping his opponent will re-raise all-in getting all the money in.

Same logic on the turn, puts in a small bet, building the pot, hoping for a reraise, but not enough to provoke a fold.

The river is a test to see if the 3 to a flush helped his opponent. The reraise back says it did and he bails.

Is this unreasonable or poor play? Personally, I don't like to slowplay to allow a possible flush draw to hit, but there are a lot of people that would want to milk as many chips as possible.

Bob

P.S. I don't understand the advice to get all-in on a draw. I don't think this player folds to a reraise all-in on the flop, I think that's what he wanted. So, I am going all-in on a draw with no folding equity? I don't think so.

Jason Strasser 08-26-2004 12:16 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
So... what do you do? Call then fold on the turn?

DaffyDuck 08-26-2004 01:07 AM

Re: Weird science...
 
[ QUOTE ]
So... what do you do? Call then fold on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was primarily trying to divine some reason for his opponent's play since everyone seemed to think he played badly no matter what he might have had.

However, if I was in fnurt's position, having no read on this player I believe I would have called his bet on the flop and seen what the turn brought. I don't have that much invested in this hand. I'm certainly willing to let it go if I don't hit the flush and he prices me out on the turn.

Not that I necessarily find fault with Fnurt's play here. He may very well have had a read on this player that he was taking a stab at the pot and tried to raise him out. But when he is reraised he should be willing to shutdown. I don't even know if the almost 5:1 he is getting on the flop re-raise is even enough to call there. He is certainly behind and he only has 9/8 outs if he is up against a set, which is certainly a distinct possibility, and as you point out there is a definite possibility his opponent pushes on the turn (or worse he hits his A or Q and is still up against a set or worst the board pairs).

Still I doubt I end up needing to make that decision as I don't raise on this flop unless I have a very good reason to think it will provoke a fold.

Bob


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