Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

About the Yankees doing it with smoke and mirrors considering their starting pitching (or, rather, their lack thereof?) I may have been wrong about them missing the playoffs (although it's still possible), but it sure doesn't look like a team that can go anywhere in the post-season. Gordon and Rivera have been wonderful, but that's it. They're in a hitting slump and I know how bad a team can look when they're not hitting, but their runs scored/runs allowed totals show that they were lucky the first half of the year.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Yea, in the playoffs, if you have an average offense and 2 stud horses to throw out there, you're at a decided advantage over a good offense and an average staff. If the Yankees have just an average offense heading into the playoffs, and no pitchers pitching effectively.... it looks like a pretty quick exit. But I'm sure ol Georgy will be cobbling together an all-star rotation this off-season.

I think the Cards have just enough decent pitching (Morris has been unbelievably inconsistent this year) to go all the way. I don't see any teams that should give the Cards many problems.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

And Boston just stumbled into another victory tonight.

Not getting Randy Johnson was a big non-deal that may haunt the Yankees.

Still with about 35 games left - A lot of time for things to swing up (or down [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]).

You still are lucky, I've been reduced to asking myself if the Diamondbacks can win 50 games this year in addition to hoping the Mariners pull out 65 wins. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

-Zeno

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see any teams that should give the Cards many problems.

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Not even the Dodgers?

-Zeno

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Hmm, not sure if you're kidding or not, but I hate the Dodgers with a passion, so take what I say with a grain of salt. Adrian Beltre has turned in an unbelievable year, but really, does anyone else on the Dodgers lineup even remotely scare you? Their pitching on the surface looks solid, but when you look at their home/away numbers, there's a huge difference. Odalis Perez is the only really effective pitcher home and away, and let's face it, nobody really considers Perez to be an ace (yet). I just don't think anyone right now can beat the Cards in a 7-game series.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

I would give the Cubs a shot, as well.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Oh, absolutely, I love the Cubs' chances a lot more than the Dodgers'... they got a good offense, and terrific pitching. But here's the big question. Assuming the Cubs make the Wild Card, and given the fact that in the playoffs teams typically only use 3 starters, who are they gonna be? Zambrano should be a lock, but outside of that, who's it gonna be? If Kerry's 100% healthy (which is a BIG if), then he should be in... but who's the third? Clement clearly has the best numbers out of the rest of the rotation, but are you really gonna keep Maddux out? And what about Mark Prior? Something's clearly going wrong with him. It'll be interesting to see what Dusty decides on.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

As things now stand this sounds about right. I did not realize you hated the Dodgers so much.

I started following them a bit since I made a silly bet on them to win the WS. I passed on the Cards at 9/4 and took the Dodgers at 10/1 (in late July). So I am not a fan, just that the D-backs and Mariners are so dismal that I wanted to have something to scream and whine about during the playoffs. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-Zeno

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

"You still are lucky, I've been reduced to asking myself if the Diamondbacks can win 50 games this year in addition to hoping the Mariners pull out 65 wins."

Interesting. Which is tougher, do you think: being a fan of a team that fails to make the playoffs year after year, (say, Tampa Bay or Milwaukee); or being a fan of a team that comes close but no cigar year after year (Oakland recently)? It's probably more fun being a fan of a good team during the year, but then those playoff almosts have to hurt. My team has lost two of the last three World Series, one in excruciating fashion in the bottom of the ninth in game seven, but there were 28 other teams that didn't get that far (and then again, they pulled out two games in that series with two out in the bottom of the ninth).

I LOVE your 10:1 bet on the Dodgers.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's probably more fun being a fan of a good team during the year, but then those playoff almosts have to hurt.

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Boston fan here. Still hurting.

Announcers were rehashing the Pedro and Grady show tonight while I was watching the Sox in the bar... they just don't let you forget.

I think Boston is an extremely dangerous team when they are hitting and can beat anybody. However I'm not stoked about Cabrera, but the D looks a lot better now and Manny and Ortiz are just destroying everything in site (including the outfield grass tonight [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Way to go Manny!)

I think I pick the NL this year to win it but I'm not counting my guys out yet. They've got a lot of clutch experience and they can beat any team on a given night.

I didn't think their win tonight was too bad. Timlin was back in tip-top form which was a welcome sign. But why all the fastballs? I guess he's got a lot of confidence in the heater... or he was afraid to throw one in the dirt with Alomar on third.

NT

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Which is tougher, do you think: being a fan of a team that fails to make the playoffs year after year, (say, Tampa Bay or Milwaukee); or being a fan of a team that comes close but no cigar year after year (Oakland recently)?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a tough question. Sort of like which is better -Long slow torture year after year or a good time for awhile and then all your high hopes get crushed like a ping pong ball with a sledgehammer, then the same thing next year. Egads. That's ugly. Since we are in the thick of the political season, I will abstain from voting on this issue.

[ QUOTE ]
I LOVE your 10:1 bet on the Dodgers.

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Thanks, I thought it would be a fun bet. I put $20 on it. I also put $20 on the Dodgers to win the NL pennant at 7:1. I was thinking a C-note on each one but pussied out. I am a baby at sports betting and do it more as a thinnly veiled joke than for serious reasons.

-Zeno

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

I got 70:1 on the Anaheim Angels winning the World Series in 2002 a couple months into the season..... good thing I bet a whole $5 on it. :P

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think their win tonight was too bad. Timlin was back in tip-top form which was a welcome sign. But why all the fastballs? I guess he's got a lot of confidence in the heater... or he was afraid to throw one in the dirt with Alomar on third.


[/ QUOTE ]

I watched the last part of that game. I was thinking along the same lines - why not a sinking fastball or low slider. Does Timlin have a good one? Guys on Second and Third may have had something to do with it. But you don't win games by being timid. You should pitch to your strengths, IMO.

He still did well and got one batter to fan.

-Zeno

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

betting on the Angels this year wouldn't be a horrible bet...they just swept the Yankees...personally, I do fel it'll come down to one of the West teams in the American League...

as for which is tougher, rootign for a perenial loser or a perenial almost-wins-it-all...well, I'm an Angels fan and a Buffalo Bills fan so I've seen it from both sides...

I'ev got to say, watching the Angels actually win the World Series in 2002 after 25 years of rooting for them...wow...can't imagine feeling that good being a Yankees fan an watching them win yet again...but we'll see how I feel after the Angels win it all again this year... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

It's beginning to look like the Red Sox trading of Nomar could be addition by subtraction. Apparently Nomar wasn't too tight with his teammates and maybe it's just a coincidence but they didn't start playing up to what everybody expected until he left.

But I agree with you about the Yankees and doing it with mirrors. And where would they be without El Duque? And can he keep it up at his age after coming off rotor cuff surgery.

The Red Sox could be a very scary team to meet in the playoffs. Two stud starting pitchers and a lineup that can score some runs with a decent closer. Their achilles heel is their middle relief, kind of shaky.

But it's great that they've closed the gap so the last 6 games with the Evil Empire should be great to watch.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

I always felt the Yankees had an advantage in the playoffs during Pedro's great years in that, since they were in the same division as the Red Sox, they never had to face them in a 3 out of 5 series. Torre said the best way to deal with Pedro was to be up 2 games to 0 when he pitches.

St. Louis looks like the team to beat.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

After looking extremely vulnerable for that recent bad stretch, the Bombers win their 2nd game in a row on their last at bat for a league leading 48th come from behind victory. Their players are tough in the clutch. That's how they are doing it!

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Can't hit, can't field, can't pitch. They're in trouble. They're surviving on Gordon and Rivera and when Gordon doesn't do the job, like tonight, they've got very little left.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Z-

Timlin has a nasty splitter. He hadn't thrown one yet and probably didn't want to bounce it.

I thought that inning, while it wasn't the most efficient way to go about it, showed incredible persistence and control for Timlin. He had to have placed the fastballs very well to keep guys from really unloading on him, since they probably had the timing down.

The victory last night backed up my growing sentiment that Timlin is returning to post-season form from last year, when he was truly unhittable. For those that missed it, he came in with the bases loaded, nobody out, and dominated three Jays hitters - striking out two and getting the third to ground out to short. I think he gave up a run the following inning, however, but he showed that he is one tough SOB in the clutch.

NT

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
they've got very little left.


[/ QUOTE ]

What's that old Jackson Browne song - Running on Empty. The Red Sox are only 5.5 games back. The Mariners and Airzona and the Dodgers lost tonight. Thank you Jose Lima.

Chin up Andy. Things will turn around.

-Zeno

Pythagorean W-L
 

I just want to point out something to people who think the Yankees get "lucky" every year with their W-L record or get carried away with Bill James stuff (much of with I agree).

Since Joe Torre joined the Yankees in 1996, the Yankees have a better W-L record than their expected pythagorean W-L record 8 out of 9 years (1997 is the only exception).

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have failed to reach their expected W-L record 5 out of 8 years.

All I'm saying is that there is no doubt some teams just know how to win.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

No chin down, just trying to be objective.

Re: Pythagorean W-L
 

That's interesting about the Yankees. I wonder if anybody's investigated on possible reasons: high on-base percentage? mangerial decisions? Rivera? Or perhaps, as you suggest, they just know how to win (i.e., Torre, Jeter, et al, are baseball wise).

Re: Pythagorean W-L
 

One hypothesis is that it is primarily a product of the way their bullpen has been designed. Led by Rivera, they have generally had way above average pitchers throwing crucial innings in close games, which should lead to an advantage in those situations. But they also have seemed to often have below-average guys in the rest of the bullpen, who are often tossing garbage innings. So perhaps this leads them to give up more runs in blowout situations, making their run differential less impressive.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Andy,

You're beginning to sound like a Red Sox fan. The Sox could start the year 82-0 and half of Boston would point out there's still a long way to go.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Remember, I said at the beginning of the year they didn't have sufficient starting pitching to make the playoffs. It's actually been even worse than I had anticipated with Mussina being basically useless and Brown hurt. The thing I hadn't foreseen was how good Gordon would be.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Just so you all know where I'm coming from, I'm a Red Sox fan. But another Yankee win in their last at bat for their league leading 49th come from behind victory. Is this one of those statistical things that seems incredible but really isn't because I'm sure impressed by it?

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

A lot of it has to do with poor starting pitching. It's easier to compile an impressive come from behind resume when you're behind.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Good point! They have so many come from behind victories simply because they are behind so often because of their starting pitching.

I knew there had to be an explanation. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]