WTF do I do here?
 

Opponent seems ok preflop, a little loose post-flop.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero...?

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I check this. An alternative is to bet/fold, but I think we get c/r'ed too often, or a better hand calls too often, for this to be profitable.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I usually check here and lose to the 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

...makes the dealer take back the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and deal out the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] instead. Threaten him if you have to.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I check behind. I don't think opponent calls with much that we beat on this scary board.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
...makes the dealer take back the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and deal out the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] instead. Threaten him if you have to.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ahhh... what was I thinking? This is a much better plan.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I love threatening digital dealers...make sure you threaten not to toke him.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

*grunch*

Easy check behind...i cant see you getting called by a hand that doesnt have you beaten here. Just be thankful villian didnt bet the river and make you have a tough decision...

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Easy check behind...i cant see you getting called by a hand that doesnt have you beaten here. Just be thankful villian didnt bet the river and make you have a tough decision...

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

Check.

If your opponent has the flush or straight, you lose, he'll call or raise your bet. If he doesn't, he will fold if you bet. So what do you get by betting?

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I bet this river. He limped in with a small PP, given his stubbornness to call you down to the bitter end. He might call your bet without a heart. Then again, he might call/raise with one as well:)

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

Bet/fold. If he's loose, virtually everything he was calling with he's still calling with.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, that sums up my thinking so much better[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

i dont understand the value of bet/fold here. you are never going to be called by a worse hand and you wont force a better hand to fold. am i wrong? im a bit of a noob.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand the value of bet/fold here. you are never going to be called by a worse hand and you wont force a better hand to fold. am i wrong? im a bit of a noob.


[/ QUOTE ]

One thing to keep in mind here is that you have been playing the hand as though you are not on a draw, which in fact you aren't. Most villains would therefore elect to value bet this river if they flush for fear that you will check your non flush. Also, because you have not played this like a flush, there is no reason for this guy not to call with his previous holding, which could be any piece of the board.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

This might be incorrect, so don't quote me on this...

Given the calldown by villian and his "slight looseness", I'm assuming he's got a pocket pair and he's putting us on an "Ace Hand".

He might call us here with a worse hand(ie a pair) if he thinks we'd bluff this river with A-high. This make sense to anyone or it just isn't worth the risk in this spot?

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This might be incorrect, so don't quote me on this...

Given the calldown by villian and his "slight looseness", I'm assuming he's got a pocket pair and he's putting us on an "Ace Hand".

He might call us here with a worse hand(ie a pair) if he thinks we'd bluff this river with A-high. This make sense to anyone or it just isn't worth the risk in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think it's worth it here. I'd say we probably get c/r'ed about 25% of the time, get called and lose about 20% of the time, fold him 25% of the time, and he calls and we win 30% of the time.

His range: any 2 broadways with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 66 or 88 maybe JJ, JT-JA with no heart

Everybody who's saying he's playoing it like a pp, his most likely pp is 66-JJ. He doesn't have 99, 77 raises flop or turn, TT has us beat, JJ has us beat, as does 66. Other than that, he's not calling turn without a heart or a J IMO. I actually think the estimates I gave above are off by quite a bit...I think it is much less favourable to bet than I mentioned above.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I think he is just as liekly to have 2 ocs, with a J for the straight draw and one heart for the flush draw on the turn.

either way, easy check behind.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

lau or buck, is my reasoning above somehow flawed? I just can't see a bet being worth it, but I would like some feedback on my analysis.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

No, your logic looks good and pretty compelling. I'm just saying that the board doesn't neccesarily change the texture of his hand, and that it's even more likely that it didn't change it after he checks the river.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

How often do you think a passive opponent has something like QJ with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here, where he'll call but won't raise?

He doesn't have a 9. What do you think he called the flop with?

......Adam

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

Ugh, check the river. You're not folding a better hand from this guy

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

adam.

cry, til you cant cry no more.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

PF: good
F: good
T: good
River: your choice: Bet-fold, or check, but not bet-call.

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
PF: good
F: good
T: good
River: your choice: Bet-fold, or check, but not bet-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, there may be some merit to my analysis here (hehe... I love calling that garbage analysis):

How often does this situation occur (in 10,000 hands, say), and how big is the difference between bet-folding and checking?

If it's not much, then we should be investing our precious braincells into pot-smoking or something equally constructive instead.

(Sorry, Adam.)

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

I would have to say check. This situation is not good either way. Betting then him folding is possiblity, but also is ch/raise...

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

Check. Who would possibly call you with a worse hand here?

Re: WTF do I do here?
 

3xjacks,
3x6's
9xHearts

9+3+3=15Cards.

15/45 cards beat you

The maths is something like 15/45 * 15/44 right? Assuming any two random cards?

Then i confuse myself and can't comeup with an answer so ill stick to strategy whilst someone explains the maths for me PLEASE.

Bet/Fold or check.... I go with check as i want to see his hand.