Betting system for UK soccer
 

This is what to do every Saturday:

Pick two banker Homes.

Pick two banker Aways.

Bet these four certainties with each one of a block of five games in Division Two to Draw.

Five 5-game accumulators at £1 each returns about £20 for each successful bet, no matter how low the Home and Away odds are, because of the Draw odds.

For instance, today I had 2/7, 2/7, 10/11, 10/11, and 9/4 to return £19.58.

There is "always" at least one Draw in any block of five games in Division Two, which makes the bet so profitable in the long run. Ironically, it's more often a "cert Home" that lets me down.

I bet at Ladbrokes as I think their bets display is quick and easy to use; but that's simply a personal preference and anywhere that covers the full 50 or so Saturday games would be fine.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

Sounds cool. I'll check it out.
Shouldn't this be in Sports Betting though?

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

So, just to make sure. "Division 2" is the 4th league... the one with Wycombe, Grimsby, Carlisle?

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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Division 2" is the 4th league... the one with Wycombe, Grimsby, Carlisle?

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Yes.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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Shouldn't this be in Sports Betting though?

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Possibly. But it's also Internet Gambling, I think.

And I rarely leave the Zoo.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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And I rarely leave the Zoo.

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Good man, good man.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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There is "always" at least one Draw in any block of five games in Division Two

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Well, you certainly seem to be right about that part. Here are the total number of draws in that league:

1998/1999: 147/552 (27%)
1999/2000: 146/552 (26%)
2000/2001: 157/552 (28%)
2001/2002: 146/552 (26%)
2002/2003: 167/552 (30%)
2003/2004: 149/552 (27%)

And so far this year, 36%!

Good stuff.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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Ironically, it's more often a "cert Home" that lets me down.

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this is why i stopped betting on it.....english footy is soooooo rigged

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

So, after doing some thinking on this system. What we are doing for each 5-game accumulator is making four "safe" bets and one additional bet that simply is to bet a draw on a random game in division 2.

If betting a draw on a random game in division 2 is -EV we would be better off with just our "safe" bets. It shouldn't be too hard to figure out if the draw bets are likely to be +EV... From the statistics above we can be pretty sure that at least 25% of the games are draws. This means that the odds we get for a draw has to be 3/1 or better on average. (I'm not used to this odds notation since we use decimal numbers in Sweden, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

I don't have the division 2 odds in front of me so I can't tell you if it actually is +EV or not.

Anyway, if the division 2 draw bets would be +EV, wouldn't we be better off just betting combinations of division 2 draws and don't bother with the "safe" bets?

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

The thing that you forget to mention is that the draw pays out based on a win rate of approximately 31%. I noticed the high percentage of draws about 2 months ago and it has been paying dividends each week.

Each week I look for the matchups of teams that have the highest number of draws. If they have similar goals scored and allowed and are close in the league table, I bet on the draw. I pick 3 matches each week that best match my filter and I have yet to have a losing week.

League 2 is filled with plenty of teams that draw at 40% or better in their matches. Nothing like taking advantage of some +EV situations. I have started to wonder how long it will be before the books adjust the draw odds for the league to represent the results. Our saving grace in this could be that the draw is by far the least bet result in any match.

I will also add that there are teams in other divisions in the UK that play as if they have no desire to anything but draw against any team with moderate ability. I will give one that is drawing at over 60% and is playing today - Southampton. They have been cashing the draw like they have their own money on it.

I realize that past results are no guaranty of future results, but until these teams are willing to prove me wrong, I'm willing to keep cashing in.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

Good post.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

The draw in League 2 pays between 3.20 and 3.45 on your average match to convert to decimals for you. The math works out to paying out at a rate of 30-31%.

If the draw is +EV, I would imagine that, with the juice on each wager, the sides on any game would have to have a fairly large -EV.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

Thanks, I didn't want to let out the information since I don't want the draw to start getting the odds that the French league gets on their draws. Italy Serie A has started to draws at under 3.00 on certain matches and that was a league where the same theory had been working for the last year or so, when filtering the matches as I described.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

good system, good thread. thank you!

a few questions/comments:

is there any reason not to just do the tie games separately? i.e. are you getting better odds on the tie thru parlays? i know parlays pay more but i'm trying to isolate the effect of the tie's pricing

bear in mind i'm from canada, know football/soccer reasonably well for over here, but these divisions keep changing names. anyhow out of the 5 division (numbered #1 thru #5 by me, it seems #2 and #4 are very good for ties

you could break it into home/road/scoring although not totally sure how much that would improve things.

as others said, when will the bookies change the lines? will they change the lines even if the public doesn't drive the change (i.e. will they make their proprietary bet?)..... or teams stop tying as much??

but i really appreciate the heads-up.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

good thread, i used to bet on the english footbal, just one request i have for the reasonable people here: stop calling it soccer, it's a [censored] insult to the beautiful game [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

Personally, I have been flat betting ties in division 4 as you call it. My win % on individual games does not justify making large number of team parlays. The favorites usually don't give the value necessary to justify placing a bet on them. I rarely bet on a team for less than even money because of this.

I noticed this morning that the League Championship (division #2) has 17 of 24 teams in the money for flat betting ties. I didn't do the math, but I would suspect that the league is fairly close to the magical 31% to be a money winner.

The bookies probably don't get much action on the fourth division in England. How much money could be wagered on this league? Ties are known to be the least wagered outcome for any match, so the tie action is probably minimal. My thought is that the prices could stay good for the rest of the season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the outcomes will be as good.

The bookies do make changes for draws in the top leagues. Italy Serie A just had their tie prices dropped in the last couple of weeks. I'm just not sure how much thought goes into England fourth division odds.

Wrong Forum
 

Better watch out, the Mods here are real wank\\\\ dic\\\ strict.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

I'm not a big UK football follower or bettor, so I'm sure there are many better systems out there for those who know their stuff, like some of the posters in this thread.

What I like about this system is that I can look through the 50 games and pick out the two "worst" Home odds, (showing the teams that the professional and highly knowledgeable odds-makers think are the most likely to win), and the worst Away odds, within seconds. Then I look at the lower divisions' odds and try to pick a block of five games where the odds-makers have not made either team a big favourite, and select them as my Draws. Bingo. A fun bet done.

As I said, I bet £5 and hope to win about £20. On occasion I get two or three Draws and pick up maybe £60 for my fiver. I've never yet hit the full house, but £100 for £5 would be nice, one day.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

Paul Steeles book is the one to get for football bets, he analyses the various systems that are possible as well as suggesting one of his own, some are simple based on form or table position and can be worked out in seconds, others are more complex with weighting systems etc and need many hours of research and data analysis.

His power system does well (as to a point you would expect) but some of the simple ones are pretty profitable as well.

Amazon link to the book