Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

Background on hand. Villain doubled me up on the hand just prior to this. He missed a turn check raise on a T422 board with QQ and let me hit a ten on the river. He got so mad that he check-raised me all in anyways.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($405)
MP ($454.55)
CO ($483.70)
Button ($161.25)
SB ($175)
BB ($200)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $7, Button calls $7, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($24) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22</font>, CO calls $22, Button folds.

Turn: ($68) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $65</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $130</font>, Hero....

I'm interested in getting some feedback on the turn bet, and then how to proceed from this point forward.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

I like the turn bet. I also like money, so I push the turn here. Any spade or big card on the river could easily kill your action. Your momentum from the previous hand also makes this push easier.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

So what hands are we looking to get called with by pushing the turn? 84? QQ?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

This would be a really tough spot if there wasn't such a strong case for a tilting villain. He'd have to be crazy to call a push without an 8, and I don't think he's that crazy. I'd call and push any non-spade river, and try and valuebet a spade one.

Edit: Make that push any river.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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This would be a really tough spot if there wasn't such a strong case for a tilting villain. He'd have to be crazy to call a push without an 8, and I don't think he's that crazy. I'd call and push any non-spade river, and try and valuebet a spade one.

Edit: Make that push any river.

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I agree with your reasoning regarding the turn, and I think pushing any river is pretty strong. However, does the same reasoning not apply?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

He can put you on a spade draw and make a heroic call on the river, not as likely to do that on the turn. Still, this hand is pretty tough to get paid off. If he is bluffy you might consider checking the river too, but I don't like a threebet. This is so WA/WB.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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He can put you on a spade draw and make a heroic call on the river, not as likely to do that on the turn. Still, this hand is pretty tough to get paid off. If he is bluffy you might consider checking the river too, but I don't like a threebet. This is so WA/WB.

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I don't think it qualifies as WA/WB because I am not WB a better 8 due to my spade draw. If behind I likely have 12 outs and 6 more outs to a split.

Of course I could be drawing damn near dead.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

OK, WA/slightly behind, you're right. The point is you're not pushing him off a better hand, and just about any worse. I mean he could have a spade draw too I guess, but that wouldn't make sense.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

So I think you and I have established that this is a really interesting/tough spot to be in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

Villian sounds tilted. I'd go broke if he has me beat here, chances are too good that he's spewing. He probably thinks you're full of it anyways since you raised preflop and the board looks like that. I'd call the turn, value bet the river. I wouldn't push the river. Give him a chance to make a crying call with an overpair or if he's real tilty, A7.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

Preflop raise is fine, what do you mean?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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Pre-flop I'm raising for value.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly.

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It's how bad LAGs do it.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly.

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It's how bad LAGs do it.

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I've been outed!

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly.

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It's how bad LAGs do it.

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I've been outed!

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What's your reasoning for this raise? What do you mean you're "raising for value?"

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

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No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT?

I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly.

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It's how bad LAGs do it.

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I've been outed!

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What's your reasoning for this raise? What do you mean you're "raising for value?"

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I'm surprised you asked, since it's so obviously awful (in your view).

Let's assume folding is EV=0. Let's also assume that coming in for a raise vs. limping is close in terms of +-EV. I always come in for a raise if I'm going to open the pot so I'm not going to consider the EV of calling.

So the question is, over all trillion+ possible starting hands, flops, turns, rivers, betting actions, etc etc, can I squeeze out a dime of profit by raising this hand in early position?

If it turns out I cannot (maybe is unprofitable by a dollar), can I make up for it with the action I get on my other hands from observant opponents (whether they see that I raised an 85 UTG or whether they simply see I'm raising more hands than would seem possible).

Obviously it is nearly impossible to answer these questions. To the first question as to whether it is profitable in a vacuum, I would suspect it's really really close. It's very dependent on the skill of your players and whether they can properly adjust to this sort of play. This play certainly increases my variance. However it gives me the ability to splash around a little more than I would otherwise, and I think it can't hurt the action I get on my better hands.

Just the thoughts of a bad LAG.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

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No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT?

I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s

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Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me!

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

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No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT?

I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s

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Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me!

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I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises)

When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make.

Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

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No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT?

I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s

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Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me!

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I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises)

When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make.

Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player.

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All I can do is pray I never run into this good player you speak of!

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

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No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT?

I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s

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Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me!

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I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises)

When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make.

Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player.

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All I can do is pray I never run into this good player you speak of!

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I raise with suited connectors from any position all the time and have yet to run into someone giving me alot of problems, but if I see you raising that crap, I'll be reraising you all day long. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river.

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Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in?

I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river.

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No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT?

I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s

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Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me!

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I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises)

When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make.

Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player.

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All I can do is pray I never run into this good player you speak of!

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I raise with suited connectors from any position all the time and have yet to run into someone giving me alot of problems, but if I see you raising that crap, I'll be reraising you all day long. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I guess I'll have to keep my screen name a secret.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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So I think you and I have established that this is a really interesting/tough spot to be in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Yeah [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

FWIW I am starting to lean towards the check call line. If he has air here I think he'll bluff his stack off on the river v often.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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First of all
your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold.

As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff.

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This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly.

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It's how bad LAGs do it.

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I've been outed!

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What's your reasoning for this raise? What do you mean you're "raising for value?"

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I'm surprised you asked, since it's so obviously awful (in your view).

Let's assume folding is EV=0. Let's also assume that coming in for a raise vs. limping is close in terms of +-EV. I always come in for a raise if I'm going to open the pot so I'm not going to consider the EV of calling

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Ok.

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So the question is, over all trillion+ possible starting hands, flops, turns, rivers, betting actions, etc etc, can I squeeze out a dime of profit by raising this hand in early position?

If it turns out I cannot (maybe is unprofitable by a dollar), can I make up for it with the action I get on my other hands from observant opponents (whether they see that I raised an 85 UTG or whether they simply see I'm raising more hands than would seem possible).

Obviously it is nearly impossible to answer these questions. To the first question as to whether it is profitable in a vacuum, I would suspect it's really really close. It's very dependent on the skill of your players and whether they can properly adjust to this sort of play

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This analysis really offers nothing when you look at it closely. You sorta just come to arbitrary conclusions w/o any evidence.

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This play certainly increases my variance. However it gives me the ability to splash around a little more than I would otherwise, and I think it can't hurt the action I get on my better hands.

Just the thoughts of a bad LAG.

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This is true, but pick better hands to accomplish this.

First of all, I didn't mean to indicate that you are a bad LAG (seemingly that's how you interpreted it).

You can't raise for value with 85s UTG. That doesn't make any sense.

I raise lotsa hands, but the most important part is to have decent position and have a hand where you can flop something hidden (ie-gapper connectors). Your hand holds no strength whatsoever--you're trying to flop a weak two pair? a low flush draw? trips with a weak kicker that will put you in a very difficult decision given your image? i mean it's imporant to have a somewhat wide range of hands UTG, UTG+1, but you can choose better hands to accomplish this. Obviously you'll have the opportunity to bluff at every flop you miss (and you will miss pretty much every one), but I contend that this will cost you more money in the LR. You're going to get into really tough spots and need to bluff a lot more than is necessary to kill the NL200 games.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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You can't raise for value with 85s UTG. That doesn't make any sense.

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Can I raise it for value in any position?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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You can't raise for value with 85s UTG. That doesn't make any sense.

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Can I raise it for value in any position?

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Well, I really don't know what you mean by raising for value, but I assume you mean is it +EV. And I think there's lots more solid reasons to raise it with good position--ie- to punish limpers. But, you should be raising lotsa hands as it is and thus your hand range is already large. For this reason, it seems to me that adding 85s into that range does nothing other than hurt you; especially out of position.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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Well, I really don't know what you mean by raising for value, but I assume you mean is it +EV.

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What else would it mean?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

When I use the term "for value" I refer to my equity in the pot, not EV. Incorrect?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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When I use the term "for value" I refer to my equity in the pot, not EV. Incorrect?

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No, you are correct. Betting for value is betting to get worse hands to call, by definition. Opening with 85s is probably -EV and definitely not "for value".

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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When I use the term "for value" I refer to my equity in the pot, not EV. Incorrect?

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No, you are correct. Betting for value is betting to get worse hands to call, by definition. Opening with 85s is probably -EV and definitely not "for value".

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So to clarify your position.

Suppose I am on the button with JT suited, and everyone limps to me. If I should choose to raise, I would not be doing so for vaule?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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So to clarify your position.

Suppose I am on the button with JT suited, and everyone limps to me. If I should choose to raise, I would not be doing so for vaule?

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No. Not in the sense that other people use the phrase, no.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

And in limit poker if I have the nut flush draw and there is a bet and 7 calls to me a raise would also not be for value? Because by definition a value raise is to get worse hands to call?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

That's entirely different, in that a 7 way pot with pot equity of greater than 1/7, anything you bet is for value. Show me how a PF raise with 85s get's called by worse hands, I'll show you a value bet. Same delio for TJ.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

In the JT suited scenario I think it should be obvious that my pot equity is greater than 1/7.

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

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In the JT suited scenario I think it should be obvious that my pot equity is greater than 1/7.

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Obvious how?

Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
 

Load up poker stove and give the other 8 guys some limping hands at small stakes NL hold em. Take a look at how JT suited fairs.