Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

What do you think? I know not to call three cold on the flop. Was this play more Ed Miller or Lee Jones? All comments are appreciated.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks,

Flop: (5 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (13 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 16 BB, between SB, BB and CO.</font>

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

I think you made the right play here. With a bet and TWO raises in front of you, you have to assume someone has flopped a flush, unless you are at a table full of loose and aggressive players. At this point you have very little invested in the pot. It's always tough to laydown a set, but here I think you have to get out and save your money.

That being said, it wouldn't be a terrible move to cap it here because even if someone does have a flush, you still have 7 outs to make a full house or quads. And it's possible that you are up against naked A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and two pair or something like that. It all depends on your style of play and your read on the other players. Personally, I would do exactly what you did.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

This fold is HORRIBLE. Even if you do not have the best hand, you will make a boat or quads more than 30% of the time, and will get paid off shitloads when you do. You should be capping for value, not folding.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Pardon me for being harsh, but if anyone is capable of a fold on the flop here for any amount, you need to give up the game.

You've got 10 outs twice to what should be the best hand. You might even have the best hand now, and are caught in a war with two players who are vastly overplaying their hands. You're about a 1.5-1 underdog to improve by the river. Your implied odds are gonzo here. Things will likely slow down on the turn. Only a stone cold fool would fold here.

If someone has TT, dems the breaks. You're going to pay him off. And I don't care what the final result was, this was a brainless fold. Neither Miller nor Jones would associate himself with it in any fashion whatsoever.

Go ahead and cap the flop. You may be behind, but against two other players, you'll improve more than enough to make up for that extra SB you're putting out on the flop. Call anything on the turn, and if the action is to you on the river and it's one bet for a showdown, you're calling that, too.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Nate said it, you should read it.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Good to see someone actually make a "big laydown" on these boards. Instead, everyone is always raising and reraising with hands that don't seem to deserve it. You flopped a pretty big hand here with your set of 4s, but with all that action one of them has to have a flush (and if not at least a good draw) so you are almost certainly behind. You're going to lose this hand more often than you win, so time to get out while the getting is cheep right.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're going to lose this hand more often than you win, so time to get out while the getting is cheep right.

[/ QUOTE ]

And when you win this unexpected hand then you will probably win more bets than you ever lost by folding this hand. Be agressive - CAP THE FLOP! And speaking of agressiveness, you should have raised PF. It will eaither build the pot for your eventual win, or shake out that suited player who just might beat you with a flush.

In da club [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

oh yeah i guess i forgot the [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]

You've got 10 outs twice to what should be the best hand .... You're about a 1.5-1 underdog to improve by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you just 'miss-spoke', but he's not 1.5:1 against... more like 2:1. He's got 7 outs on the flop and 10 on the turn - 36.67% from 1/6.7 + 1/4.6.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

This is interesting: posters I respect on both sides of the issue. Despite this (and I will throw my opinion in for what it's worth), this fold seems to me to be a very very very large error. If you are behind to a flush you have seven outs on the turn, and ten on the river. If you are behind to a set of tens... thems the breaks.

The only real debate I see is whether or not to cap the flop. I initially (intuitively) thought just call. However, giving it some thought (which in fairness you don't have a whole lot of time to mull these things over in the heat of the moment) capping for value might be wise, and it strikes every fiber of my poker being as a sin to cold call 3 bets.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

I think the flop play is a pretty easy call

But what happens on the turn if Monkey plays on and a blank or another [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls?

Does he bet out if checked to him?
How many bets does he call?
One bet to him, call, capped on the way back, what now?

With the huge pot how many bets can he call on the river if he doesnt fill up? 0,1, more?

These are probably just simple pot odds questions, but its late and I am tired.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Ouch. Thanks for being honest guys. This isn't much of an excuse, but this was actually my third set in about 200 hands and I dropped big pots with the first two. I wasn't even thinking about my boat outs because I was positive the board wouldn't pair. I didn't have any reads, but through my first few hands at the table it looked typical party loose passive, so I didn't think anybody would jam this much with a single diamond. I guess I should have bit my lip and capped the sucker.

I'll save the results for now so that the morning crew can give me more of the berating that I deserve. Anybody have any guesses on the villan's hands?

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

You probably had the best hand.
I put CO on a set of deuces, the other guys on 2pair or pair flush combos.

If you never folded a set you would not be way off.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I put CO on a set of deuces, the other guys on 2pair or pair flush combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

The old put them all on something I can beat theory ... excellent.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll save the results for now so that the morning crew can give me more of the berating that I deserve. Anybody have any guesses on the villan's hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll guess roughly 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

And this should be the math, unless I have no clue what I'm doing...

Assume someone has made the flush and won't fold.
Making the boat by the river: !(!15%*!22%)=34%

Raise? 34% win rate, 25% contribution: Yes. +EV
Eg. You bet 1 unit and three people call it. 34% of the time you win 3 units, and 64% of the time you lose 1 unit.
34%*3-64%*1=.38 units

Call? I don't know. How can you accurately predict the future betting? Anyway, if the raise is correct the call can't possibly be greater EV.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Let's make the math super simple.

Monkey: AA

Board: A B C

On the turn, you have 3 B's and 3 C's and 1 A that can give you a boat/quads. 7/47 which is approx 14.8%

Turn: A B C D

On the river, you have 10 outs to a boat or quads (3 B's, 3 C's, 3 D's, and an A) whish is 10/46 or approx 21.7%

14.8 + 21.7 let's just say is around one third of the time you'll improve to a boat or quads by the river. That means odds are good that you'll win this pot one third of the time. Well, there are 3 people willing to call any bets you make. Like EdSchurr said above me, the situation is clearly +EV to raise, since you will get back in the long run 1.38 bets per bet that you make in this situation. What you're doing here is pushing your pot equity edge. On that flop you can say 'I'll win this 33% of the time'. That's much more than your fair share against a field of 3.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

When I flop a set I tend to put my opponents on something I can beat, maybe you are much smarter than me though.

TT would probably raise preflop.
Flopped flushes are extremely rare, even given the flop action.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

I think this call is rather simple, you look at the pot odds, if they are anywhere near 5.6:1 you call, if not you think about the implied odds which are very very big if someone flopped a flush. And I think there is always a 10% chance at party that these players raise and reraise the flop without a flopped flush, so folding would be a very big error in this situation I think.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

The only problem I see is adding the probabilities. I'm not 100% sure I'm right, but here is the reasoning for the way I did it (some discrete math required...though...I'll explain it):

You want the probability of hitting on the turn and/or hitting on the river. The math function you want is "or".

So (x)OR(y)=the percent of hitting on the river from the flop.

You can't just add to do OR. There is, in fact, no really easy way to do it. But AND is easy -- you just multiply the terms together -- and we can make OR look like AND by DeMorgen's rule/law/something.

So we negate the equation twice, because !(!(1)) is still 1. (I'm using the ! symbol to be negation, from comp sci)

"!" by the way is the same as doing 1-x. !(!(1)) is 1-(1-(1)) which is 1.

The reason we negate the equation is because negating an OR produces an AND. So !((x)OR(y)) is (!x)AND(!y).

So, with some rough numbers, !(!(20% OR 30%)) is !(80% AND 70%). To do the AND function, try .8*.7 which is .56. So we have !(56%), which is finally 34%. I'm not sure about the best way to do calculations on the fly. Practice I guess. There are usually approximations that exist but I don't know them.

And so concludes our discrete math for poker lesson, which may or may not be wrong, and which may or may not be applicable. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

"I'll save the results for now so that the morning crew can give me more of the berating that I deserve."

Morning crew is here - Absolutely terrible fold! Call or cap, probably doesn't matter much. My guess is that there will be some major chilling out on the turn. You should be able to see the river for only 1 BB if you don't fill.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

It's boring I know, but does anyone else fold this preflop?

RH

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's boring I know, but does anyone else fold this preflop?

RH

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

In most PP poker games, I would play this UTG, so I'm definitely not folding on the button with limpers.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop play is a pretty easy call

But what happens on the turn if Monkey plays on and a blank or another [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls?

Does he bet out if checked to him?
How many bets does he call?
One bet to him, call, capped on the way back, what now?

With the huge pot how many bets can he call on the river if he doesnt fill up? 0,1, more?

These are probably just simple pot odds questions, but its late and I am tired.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just read this item yesterday:

Bet, Raise or Fold

I wonder if the author would take his own advice here - cap both flop and turn?

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

My two-cents. On the flop, I think you are correct to assume that you are behind. However, it gets to you (11SB) you have to call (3) to see next card , at this point you have 7 outs; however the next card can probably do nothing but help you; if it misses it gives you (10) outs for the river (3-tens, 3-twos, 1-four, and 3-Xs), if it hits you have a FH. Also Even if you assume that only the BB will call the raise, you are not that far off from what you need for pot + implied odds, even to see (1) more card (As it is obvious that if you hit at least (2) people will be calling your bet.)

I think you have to see this through. That said I am not sure about capping, it is possible that the SB might fold and I am not sure that we want that. Also it is doubtful that all three of those guys would give you a free card. Indeed if you hit on the turn, you want them betting into you.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

I'm not as experienced as most here, but think this was a pretty ghastly fold. Cap the flop; if another diamond falls, call (don't raise). You've got more than enough equity against everything else but a higher set, which happens occasionally, but not often enough to fold.

Rob

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just read this item yesterday:

Bet, Raise or Fold


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that article is just full of horrible advice.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was positive the board wouldn't pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh. My.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

You CANNOT FOLD THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You have so many outs to a full house it's not even funny.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good to see someone actually make a "big laydown" on these boards. Instead, everyone is always raising and reraising with hands that don't seem to deserve it. You flopped a pretty big hand here with your set of 4s, but with all that action one of them has to have a flush (and if not at least a good draw) so you are almost certainly behind. You're going to lose this hand more often than you win, so time to get out while the getting is cheep right.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to lose EVERY SINGLE hand you play 3-way or better more than you win. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-d

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Definitely cap the flop with 3 callers.
Definitely cap the turn with 3 callers (you're still 1:4 to fill-up/make quads, so if they all call, you're golden)
Check/call one the river unimproved.

-d

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was positive the board wouldn't pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh. My.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. I'd like to say that comment was sarcastic, but it wasn't. I think I've learned this lesson. Now I'm off to hide under my bed and reread the post flop section of SSHE.

Final Pot: 16 BB
Main Pot: 16 BB, between SB, BB and CO.

Pot won by CO (16 BB).


SB shows Qs 9d (one pair, nines).
BB shows Qd 8h (high card, queen).
CO shows Ts 6h (two pair, tens and sixes).
Outcome: CO wins 16 BB.

I know, I know. I felt like putting my head in the oven when I saw it. I guess it was a 20+ big bet lesson. Don't fold a set on the flop. Fortunately this happened a few hands later.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (18.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls.

River: (30.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 33.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 33.50 BB, between SB, MP3 and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (33.50 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB shows 8c 9c (high card, ace).
MP3 shows Ah 7c (two pair, aces and sevens).
Hero shows Kc Kd (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 33.50 BB. </font>

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

The SB in this example is why you can never assume that someone has something good to call you down the entire way.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Pot won by CO (16 BB).


SB shows Qs 9d (one pair, nines).
BB shows Qd 8h (high card, queen).
CO shows Ts 6h (two pair, tens and sixes).
Outcome: CO wins 16 BB.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know I should not; but looking at the action i find this totally shocking

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

Me TOO! I was thinking made flush, top pair Ad, and a set of two, taking away a bunch of the outs - this is incredible.

These results are just scary.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just read this item yesterday:

Bet, Raise or Fold


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that article is just full of horrible advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Remember, it is always correct to fold if you think you are beat. It's ok to get bluffed. It happens, and good players can be bluffed, bad players cannot."

Huh? Fold for one bet on the river after betting like crazy until that point? Ed would kick this guy's butt [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

This is akin to folding KK when it is 4-bets to you preflop.
Though folding this set is worse.

You guys haven't played on party much if you are 'shocked' by those results.
Crazier pots with crazy multiway bluffing/overplaying are a common sight up to 2/4.
(Which is as high as I have played, maybe it continues higher.)

Edit: took out the obnoxious told you so part.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

I havent read the posts yet but this fold sucks big time. You're probably 2-1 to make a boat and you're getting 3-1 for every bet you put in on the flop. Cap for value.

Edit: Okay i basically just repeated what most people said. bleh

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno know why Nottom implied I was out of line for suggesting hero probably had the best hand on the flop.
Monster under the bed syndrome?


[/ QUOTE ]

I just think its absurd to actually put someone on an underset rather than a flush. I think its reasonably likely our hero has the best hand.

Honestly I don't even understand why this thread is still going, becasue folding the flop is such a blatent mistake its hardly worth discussing.

Re: Flopped set on a suited flop: Cap of fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is akin to folding KK when it is 4-bets to you preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it seems to be OK to fold KK to a 5-bet .