I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I have a strong suspicion many of the wrong teams will be favored in just about each series or at least be overinflated.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I have a strong suspicion many of the wrong teams will be favored in just about each series or at least be overinflated.

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Boston and NY will be favored in the AL, and IMO they should be.

The red sox opened at -150 at Pinny, which may be a tad high.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I have a strong suspicion many of the wrong teams will be favored in just about each series or at least be overinflated.

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Boston and NY will be favored in the AL, and IMO they should be.

The red sox opened at -150 at Pinny, which may be a tad high.

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Yes, that sounds high for a team going on the road without an ace. Mrbaseball will probably shoot me for saying that I think Red is better than White, but I think it's pretty close to a 50/50 proposition.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Glad to see they are up. HUUUUUUGE bargain on the White Sox! Grab it while you can! Their pitching is on fire. I hope the Yanks get favored too and I hope the Cards get big fav status to fade as well.

I ignorant public will slobber over Boston an NY inappropriately and totally dis SD. It very similar to the bar stool pundit thing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I think it's pretty close to a 50/50 proposition.


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Okay I'm a White Sox homer but the line is inverted. The best and hottest pitching staff in the playoffs should be favored as well as best record in the league and best performer down the stretch.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I have a strong suspicion many of the wrong teams will be favored in just about each series or at least be overinflated.

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Boston and NY will be favored in the AL, and IMO they should be.

The red sox opened at -150 at Pinny, which may be a tad high.

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Yes, that sounds high for a team going on the road without an ace. Mrbaseball will probably shoot me for saying that I think Red is better than White, but I think it's pretty close to a 50/50 proposition.

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I think the Red Sox are the stronger team. BP 3rd order wins has them at about 4 wins stronger than the ChiSox. Of course you have to factor in the HFA, but that has already been shown to be not as important as its made out to be.

-150 is high, but I dont see this any lower than -125.

Then again, I think pitching is overrated in the postseason (before anyone attacks that statement, think about how much peiople think pitching is worht in the postseason)

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I think the Red Sox are the stronger team

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Name one Red Sox pitcher who could break into the White Sox rotation? Or anyone who would replace any of their bullpen?

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I think the Red Sox are the stronger team

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Name one Red Sox pitcher who could break into the White Sox rotation? Or anyone who would replace any of their bullpen?

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I don't think it matters. We all know the White Sox have better pitching, and Boston has better hitting.

The thing is, the two pitching staffs are quite similar other than the fact that one sucks and one doesn't. There is no major difference between #1 and #4 on either team. It's not like the Diamondbacks of 01, or Houston this year - two teams that obviously are suited for the playoffs. Even Boston last year was set up for a playoff run with Pedro/Schilling.

I'd put the line at more like -115 for Boston.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I hope the Yanks get favored too and I hope the Cards get big fav status to fade as well.


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I thought the Yanks would be favored by a bit more than they are. Anaheim is +160 now, which doesn't sound that far off for the hottest team in the majors with an obvious ace with HFA.

Before the lines were posted at Pinnacle, I thought to myself: +160 or better I take Anaheim, +300 or better SD. Those ended up pretty much right on the mark, with SD getting a slightly better price at +330.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

White Sox are the outsider of four (+354 ) at WSEX for the AL title.

Lori

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Here's why I think WS are a huge bet.

Is Contreras (AL Sept pitcher of the month) gonna be a dog in Game 1? Is Buehrle (also on a hotstreak) gonna be a dog in game 2? Playoffs are a craqpshoot for sure and dead even lines in all series make sense to me. They are all good teams and all have good chances. But given my druthers I'll take the pitching and let the ESPN hypnotized morons lay the wood for teams with lesser resumes on the road.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

SD is HUGE at this price.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Well, +330 dint last long...

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I now have a bet on Boston by default. I had bet somebody in Sporting Events that CWS wouldn't win a series. I was going to hedge it, because I knew CWS would most likely be dogs no matter who they played. But, I think with Boston playing (where my heart lies [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ), with me getting an even money bet on Boston, and the fact that the guy might not pay and I could lose then, I will just let it ride.

craig

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

5 Dimes had pennant prices up, ChiSox +380, hou +320

Series prices soon

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I got some [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

-205 gets you Bos/La/Chi for AL pennant, hmmm

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

As a White Sox fan I'm absolutely terrified! Chicago is all about choking and underperforming and usually not even getting a chance to fail on a national stage.

But as an objective sports bettor I really like their chances at this price. As an objective sport bettor it is a totally out of whack line.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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-205 gets you Bos/La/Chi for AL pennant, hmmm

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sounds pretty good.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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5 Dimes had pennant prices up, ChiSox +380, hou +320

Series prices soon

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I like Houston at this price. I think they are the 2nd best team in the NL, and with the top of the rotation so strong, they might even be the best "playoff" team.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I would agree with you about the line being out of whack. But, at even money, it is pretty good to be on Boston.

craig

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I suspect Pinnacle might not be the place to bet on the Padres, Angels, or White Sox. The lines there tend to be "sharper" than other books. Bowman's in particular seems to have square lines that often differ quite a bit from Pinny.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

These moved fast -220, +305 now.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Mr B, are you on all 4 dogs?

I know you like the Padres, that's the only one I can't touch.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I would agree with you about the line being out of whack. But, at even money, it is pretty good to be on Boston.

craig

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I agree of course. I have been screwed beyond screwed with my efforts to resist hedging this year (bets on Oakland and Boston to win their divisions could have paid off big earlier this year, and because of a crappy tiebreak rule I get nothing for either of them).

The AL lowdown on overpricing
 

Had you bet NYY every game this season you would have lost 4.25 units. Had you bet BOS every game you would have won 5.95 units. The Angels +17.4 units and the CWS + 24.25 units.

So these lines just continue the mispricing we have seen from day one. If you aren't on LAA or CWS you shouldn't be betting these series because there is no value in laying the wood on the other 2 teams.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I like the fat lines (LAA, CWS and SD). Atl and Hou is close enough to be fair and I don't see any value there.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Like, I said, I probably would buy some CWS back, but I don't want to get stiffed (I don't think the guy will stiff me..but you never know).

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I agree with you on SD. If there ever was a "live dog" I would say they are it. And I am not saying this because I live in SD. I don't like the Padres or their fans, or their barely .500 division winning team. If BOS blows it, then I will pull for my hometown HOU.

craig

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Hou-ATL I agree is a coinflip. I'll be taking whoever loses game 1 with the adjusted line. Comments on taking the game 1 loser ?

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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Like, I said, I probably would buy some CWS back, but I don't want to get stiffed (I don't think the guy will stiff me..but you never know).

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Well screw you then. You suck, and if the Red Sox lose, it's your fault.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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Hou-ATL I agree is a coinflip. I'll be taking whoever loses game 1 with the adjusted line. Comments on taking the game 1 loser ?

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Umm, hard to comment on a line that hasn't been put up yet. FWIW, if it is really a coinflip, you need +220 to break even on the game 1 loser.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

It will be my fault. I want to make it easier for you to blame me:

THERE IS NO WAY THE RED SOX DON'T WIN THE WORLD SERIES!!!!! YOU STAT GEEKS SUCK AND KNOW NOTHING ABOUT CAPPING!! I AM PARLAYING THE RED SOX WINNING THIS SERIES WITH THEM WINNING THE WORLD SERIES!!! EASY MONEY!!!

craig [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

They are up...

http://www36.pinnaclesports.com/gues...MLB%20Playoffs

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Should we wait on these to move... Will the public push the NYY and BOS lines further?

Im going to place a medium sized bet on both, and at (+xxx) I like the odds that atleast one wont move on [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Interesting season long profit totals for playing all games throughout as well

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I think the dogs have already moved to worse odds in most circumstances.

craig

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

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I think the dogs have already moved to worse odds in most circumstances.

craig

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LAA has gone from +139 to +141 in the past 15 minutes at pinny

CWS doesnt appear to be moving as much

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

The books are already "loaded" with futures bets on Bos, NY and StL from preseason so depending on the amount of action here lines could shift back the other way. I think the initial push of sharps pushed it toward the dogs but as the public filters in it may drift back toward the favs.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

Good point about the futures. And it was most likely sharps betting the dogs early.

Re: I can\'t wait for the playoff series lines!
 

I just took SD at 28-1 for the world series.... betfair is fun sometimes.

Lori