15/30 JJ
 

UTG+1 is a well-known 2+2er. MP1 is a 60/5/1.5 fish who I know would have raised the flop with a Q.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, I call.

Turn: (6.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (12.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

What do you expect to call you for value?

- Jim

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you expect to call you for value?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a valuebluff. The fish will call with any pair here.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you expect to call you for value?

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a valuebluff if I'm reading this correctly.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

I think it's very unlikely that your opponent will fold the winning hand 1-in-13 times even in a "protected" pot but I'm probably off-base here. edumacate me.

- Jim

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

I don't think UTG+1 will fold a better hand often enough.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think UTG+1 will fold a better hand often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if he is calling the turn raise then he is likely going to SD. I'm kinda unsure about the rest of the hand as well, I'll have to take a closer look...

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

I really don't like your river bet. UTG+1 appears to have you beat and is not going to lay it down as the pot is so big.

SGS

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like your river bet. UTG+1 appears to have you beat and is not going to lay it down as the pot is so big.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he reads my raise as a free showdown raise and doesn't expect me to fire again? What if he thinks I'm getting crazy with AK and calls with 88/99? What if he folds JJ? What about the fact that I don't have to fold AQ/KQ that often?

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

My experience with most 2+2 types is this donk is always a queen. If you said who I might have a better read (I might not too). But I think you are underestimating how often you are beat. My default play would be to muck on the flop.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
What if he thinks I'm getting crazy with AK and calls with 88/99?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you really ever gonna go crazy like this with AK when you have a protected pot and a bad player that is calling you down with as you said any pair? Do you think he would bet the flop and turn with 99/88?

[ QUOTE ]
What about the fact that I don't have to fold AQ/KQ that often?

[/ QUOTE ]

2p2er is thinking my AQ/KQ only has to be good 1 in 14 or whatever, so I think he is folding those two hands about never. It just seems to me that all hands that beat you are calling and all hands that you beat are folding.

SGS

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if he thinks I'm getting crazy with AK and calls with 88/99?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you really ever gonna go crazy like this with AK when you have a protected pot and a bad player that is calling you down with as you said any pair? Do you think he would bet the flop and turn with 99/88?

[/ QUOTE ]

He could bet the flop and turn with 88/99 putting me on AK and not wanting to let me off easy.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What about the fact that I don't have to fold AQ/KQ that often?

[/ QUOTE ]

2p2er is thinking my AQ/KQ only has to be good 1 in 14 or whatever, so I think he is folding those two hands about never. It just seems to me that all hands that beat you are calling and all hands that you beat are folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

To call the turn raise AND a river bet he has to think he's good 1/8.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

Judging from your many well thought out posts, I am of the opinion that anybody who plays with you realizes that you are very aggressive. This will certainly stick in the mind of your opponents here. For example, your flop raise is a little out of line with that queen out there. When you are bet into again on the turn and pop another raise - that is pure spewing. I do not see any reason to expose yourself to a 3-bet here. You raised the flop, so the idea of you having a 10 v. a Q seems slim. Your attempt to get villain to fold a better hand would work SO MUCH BETTER if the fish were acting before the 2+2er forcing him to overcall your river bet. That way the times you have the fish beat (who calls with any pair) there might be value in your river bet as villain might fold. As it stands this river bet has as much value as enron stock.

I guess there is about a 20/1 shot that villain was betting KJ or folded a weak Q and fish called with a small pair. I really do not see any other reason that you would post such a hand.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

Thank you for your well-thought post, but I did not raise the flop.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

My comments were directed solely at the river bet.

Edited to add: Suppose the 2p2er did bet 99/88 on flop and turn, I really doubt he is calling a turn raise with those hands.

SGS