squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

M=15 pot odds 4.6 to 1, no stopping the action, the bb is very active, are you in?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t4530)
UTG+2 (t4746)
MP1 (t8450)
MP2 (t6500)
MP3 (t2070)
CO (t2286)
Button (t16660)
Hero (t6806)
BB (t2374)
UTG (t3150)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t700</font>, UTG+2 calls t700, MP1 calls t700, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t700, 1 fold[/i]</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> Hero ?

<font color="white"> Hero folds[/i]BB raises [t2374] t300, UTG+1 calls t1674, UTG+2 calls t1674, MP1 folds, CO calls [t1586] t700.

Flop: (t6598) Ad, 7s, 6h (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 calls [t2372] , UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (t6598) 4s (3 players)

River: (t6598) 4c (3 players)

Final Pot: t6598
bb 99 utg+2 AK c/o 6c7c</font>

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

There are two lines I would use here:

1)Push now
2)Wait for BB to push, some yokels to overcall and then overpush

3)Your fold suuuuuuuuuucked (there need to be more u's in there)

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

Okay, hold on, let me get this straight...

YOU FOLDED?!?!?!?!?!

This is an instant push every day of the week. The only reason I favor this is because you could end up looking silly if BB doesn't want to play along with option 2.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

At first, I thought your question was to call, hoping the BB would push for you, so you could either overpush, or get heads up with some dead money.

I thought that was too risky.

THEN I read the white stuff

ARE YOU SERIOUS?????????????

My idea of risk was that you werent going to be able to get all of your ships in preflop if your read on the BB wasnt perfect.

Dude, you cant fold that hand, and honestly expect to win. This is the situation that even the weakest tightest players wait for.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

Auto-push. Unless you're in a really low limit tournament, the only guy calling is going to be UTG+1. This was a big opportunity for you.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

This fold is bad. What are you fearing? You might get a call from a middle pair, but at least you put them to the test if you push. there is so much money in there now i would have considered pushing with a lot worse than AK. Next time you get a golden oppurtunity like this, dont waste it.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

thanks for the replies,
My first line was push to isolate,
I knew bb was in with any hand, The villain in my mind was utg+2, solid,
and one over caller, with the bb

Then I had a second thought, I wonder if I can fold this hand? Nah, but then I thought maybe I can.

I'd just spent the day (yesterday) running a table of - holdem hands vs std range of villain hands.
ev table etc,
I couldn't see winning this hand, often enough for what might be 3:1 probably 5:1

I've run std range in Poker Stove for 3, 4 and 5 villain against AK and it choked,
I backed the range off and the best I get is 10% to 25% in Poker Stove. 15% on a results based range. So what it's only chips.
If I'm correct and I do get 3 in with me, pot odds are there. If I'm wrong and I get 2 with one monster, they are not.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the replies,
My first line was push to isolate,
I knew bb was in with any hand, The villain in my mind was utg+2, solid,
and one over caller, with the bb

Then I had a second thought, I wonder if I can fold this hand? Nah, but then I thought maybe I can.

I'd just spent the day (yesterday) running a table of - holdem hands vs std range of villain hands.
ev table etc,
I couldn't see winning this hand, often enough for what might be 3:1 probably 5:1

I've run std range in Poker Stove for 3, 4 and 5 villain against AK and it choked,
I backed the range off and the best I get is 10% to 25% in Poker Stove. 15% on a results based range. So what it's only chips.
If I'm correct and I do get 3 in with me, pot odds are there. If I'm wrong and I get 2 with one monster, they are not.

[/ QUOTE ]

That analysis is intensely wrong. Like, really really wrong. Please copy and paste your pokerstove results because you are definitely making a mistake. even if he has kings you are better than 25%. AK is better than you think apparently.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.4583 % [ 00.01 00.14 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 15.4583 % [ 00.01 00.14 ] { AKo }
Hand 3: 47.9726 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 4: 21.1108 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { 76s }

Hand 1: 26.1201 % [ 00.25 00.01 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 36.4290 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { QQ-99, AKs-A9s, AQo-A9o }
Hand 3: 22.6118 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-A7s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KJo }
Hand 4: 14.8391 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { A6s, KTs, 76s, AQo, A7o, KTo }

Hand 1: 14.0544 % [ 00.02 00.12 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 14.0544 % [ 00.02 00.12 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 54.8079 % [ 00.55 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 4: 17.0832 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { A6s, KTs, 76s, AQo, A7o, KTo }

Hand 1: 18.7194 % [ 00.02 00.17 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 18.7194 % [ 00.02 00.17 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 38.0673 % [ 00.37 00.01 ] { 88, ATs, AJo }
Hand 4: 24.4940 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { 99, 66, AKs-A7s, KJs-KTs, 76s, AKo-A7o, KJo-KTo }

Hand 1: 09.2060 % [ 00.01 00.08 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 09.9219 % [ 00.02 00.08 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 22.3219 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { 88, ATs, AJo }
Hand 4: 14.7745 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { 66, 76s, ATo }
Hand 5: 20.8911 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { JJ, 77, A7s, A7o }
Hand 6: 22.8846 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { TT-88, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }

Hand 1: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { 88, AQs-ATs, AQo-AJo }
Hand 3: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { JJ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-ATo }
Hand 4: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { QQ-55, AKs-A7s, JTs, T9s, 98s, AKo-A7o }
Hand 5: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { 77-44, KTs, K6s, QTs, Q6s, KJo, K9o, Q9o }
Hand 6: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { AhKs }
Hand 7: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { QQ-88, AKs-A7s, AKo-A8o }

and I maintain this pot was not going to be isolated, it was multiway all the way

I view a std range of holdings heads up as
A thru 7
K thru Js
Pairs to 55

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

Come on bro, of course if you give one opponent EXACTLY AK, your results are going to look bad. Unless you are Dr. Emmit Brown, you cant give him an exact range like that (it doesnt matter that he actually had AK).

Also, you are not sure that this is going to be a multi-way pot. The way it played out, it was, but it may have been different if the original pusher was the tightest man alive i.e. you, rather than someone who you knew with 100% certainty was going to push from the BB.

Bad bad play, the sooner you realize it the better. I understand the natural human instinct to defend your move, but seriously, if you want to be a winning poker player, understanding why this was such a bad move is important.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

Uninstall pokerstove from your computer right now - you're using it to justify terrible plays. work on your game (a lot) before you start to even bother with pokerstove.

oh yea, did i forget to say PUSH? yea, PUSH!!!!! PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSH PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSH

ok said it.

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

[ QUOTE ]
{ JJ, 77, A7s, A7o }

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know, this is usually a range I will put opponents on.

Hmmm, I'll bet he has jacks...or 7s. Definitely has at least one 7. Maybe A7. Thats it!!! Jacks, 7s, or A7..definitely!

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

agreed - call it a John Vourhaus moment-can I really do this?

Now what range is utg on (he only retreats after an A flop)
Still have to put him AK-AQs TT up
UTG+1 AK-AQ QQ-88
Draw Man any
BB active

I push and draw man leaves and utg stays?
If utg+1 is on this forum he stays, right?
BB maybe

Now what do you think?
This is the point

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now what range is utg on (he only retreats after an A flop)
Still have to put him AK-AQs TT up

[/ QUOTE ]

Way too tight. Even if he is a solid player, KQs, ATs, 77+
Since we dont know, KJ+, ATo, 55+, even JTs, QJs arent out of the question here.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 AK-AQ QQ-88

[/ QUOTE ]
So you dont think that someone calls with AJ, AT for a 2.3xBB raise with AT? You have to stop thinking all of your opponents are Tom Mcevoy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Above range, plus all PP and probably AXs



[ QUOTE ]

Draw Man any
BB active


[/ QUOTE ]

ok

[ QUOTE ]

I push and draw man leaves and utg stays?
If utg+1 is on this forum he stays, right?
BB maybe


[/ QUOTE ]

The UG raise represents more strength than a raise from the button, but he folds about 70% of the time to your push

UG+1 folds to your push &gt;70% of the time here. Even if he is on the forum, a UG raise, a push from the SB and a call means he will only call with a premium hand (which he most likely doesnt have). He is up against a high PP too often to call here, IMO

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
{ JJ, 77, A7s, A7o }

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know, this is usually a range I will put opponents on.

Hmmm, I'll bet he has jacks...or 7s. Definitely has at least one 7. Maybe A7. Thats it!!! Jacks, 7s, or A7..definitely!

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have to stop thinking all of your opponents are Tom Mcevoy.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol nh

Re: squeeze play coming - do you still make the play
 

cool, this makes sense
your ranges, my read -bb is in - utg or utg+1 is in
easy push
4746 to win 16702 3.5:1

no bb - utg or utg+1 stays
pot odds = probability
4746 to 14328 3:1
cheers

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 28.5593 % [ 00.28 00.01 ] { AA-55, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, JTs, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 16.0213 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { QQ-22, AKs-A5s, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 22.9799 % [ 00.21 00.02 ] { 88-55, AKs-A7s, KQs-K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 4: 32.4396 % [ 00.31 00.02 ] { AKo }

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 22.6289 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { AA-55, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, JTs, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 11.4407 % [ 00.11 00.01 ] { QQ-22, AKs-A5s, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 20.2463 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 88-55, AKs-A7s, KQs-K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 4: 20.5207 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-55, AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, JTs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KTo, QJo }
Hand 5: 25.1634 % [ 00.24 00.01 ] { AKo }