Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Two things to know about this hand:

1. The hand previous to this, I won about $85 with AA when I flopped a set, that turned into a boat against a single opponent, not the villian. Don't know if it's relevant, but will just point it out.

2. About 10 hands previous, villian was in MP facing a 3xBB preflop raise, and he reraised 3x that with 10-10. Otherwise he has been somewhat passive at the table.

The hand: (sorry, converter doesn't work for my site)

$1/$2 blinds NLHE
Hero UTG ($280)
Villian UTG+1 ($120)

Dealt to Hero K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero UTG raises 3xBB to $6
Villian UTG+1 raises to $20
all others fold
Hero calls $14

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

(pot $43) Hero checks, Villian bets $30, Hero folds.

PS As I finished typing this I realized why point #1 was relevant at the time. But, I would like to hear other's thoughts first before I reveal my results orientated thinking, although you can probably guess.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

No, I don't
No, I can't
No, I wouldn't

He's so short-stacked, I don't know if there is any line that you can get away from this hand. Lead the flop and fold to all-in? Maybe, but I'm probably calling anyways...

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Why did't you move in preflop? Odds are he will call you with whatever he has and if he will play only pocket pairs TT and up this way, Baye's theorm makes it about 3 to 1 against him having Aces. If he will even play some more hands like AK and 99 this way (I often even run into players that raise and even reraise any PP) then you are doing even better.

I probably go ahead and call the all in on the flop and pray for him to turn up AK, QQ, or the other 2 kings.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

First off, I don't see where Cooker is getting the "call the flop all-in" business. Did I miss something?

Anyway, I don't like your raise preflop. If you're going to raise, might as well make it ATLEAST 4xBB. Generally, I like to raise a little more with KK because I know some idiots will call with a weak ace and get lucky.

I like leading out on the flop. By checking, you're inviting him to bluff. I even like check-raising in this situation. Especially if you put him all in. He couldn't call it with AK or worse. He only thing he'd call it with is JJJ, 101010, 999, KK, or AA. Most of the time you'll be ahead on the flop. If he does have a set, you still have your gut shot and counter-set draws (a grand total of 6 outs).

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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Why did't you move in preflop?

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Because I was being a wuss. I was +$160 on the session at that point in only about 30 minutes (I was only one tabling at this time), and was going to be leaving shortly. He was passive, and so I am thinking, win a nice medium sized pot after the flop. But this flop was the worst possible flop to have for the range of hands I was about 80% certain he had.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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Anyway, I don't like your raise preflop. If you're going to raise, might as well make it ATLEAST 4xBB.

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I vary my preflop raises when I open, randomly between 2.5 and 5 times the BB. I do not vary them based upon the strength of my holding, nor should you. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

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I like leading out on the flop. By checking, you're inviting him to bluff.

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My read on this guy (passive), combined with my table image to him at the time told me the chances of him taking a chance and bluffing at me were pretty slim. Plus $30 was a nice sized bet for him. He bought in for $50 shortly after I got there, and doubled up with those 10's and won another recent pot to get to that $120. So $30 to this guy I read as a non bluff bet. (I had never played with him before this)

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

You have to stop thinking about how much you are up each session. That will only lead you down a road toward losing poker. You have to play each hand the way it should be played. I like reraising all-in preflop. He's putting $20 dollars on the table. I don't see anything wrong with raising all-in on the flop either. You got KK vs one opponent. That is like a monster. No ace on the flop either. He could have AK, AQ , AJ, anything. I'm putting him on AJ actually. You had him.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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I'm putting him on AJ actually. You had him.

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?

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Just reading this is making me sick to my stomach.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Raise all-in preflop. If he's a standard 1/2 NL reraiser he won't fold any type of hand. My personal favorite was the guy who minreraised my raise to 14 with t9h and when I moved all-in with AA, he called his remaining 185 instantly LMAO.

On the flop you've got six outs against every hand that he is beating you with (4 Q and 2K )and blockers to his QQ. Just get all-in on the flop and hope for the best. AK or QQ is just as likely as JJ TT AA. 8 Combinations of AK and 6 of QQ =14. AA six combinations 3 jj 3 tt= 12 combinations. 14:12 you have him beat assuming he always puts in a continuation bet. Now at showdown both AK and QQ are going to beat you roughly 30% of the time. You are going to beat AA JJ TT roughly 25% of the time. This would changes the odds to 9.4 to 9 which means you will win this matchup slightly more than half the time. Basically the idea is to keep something like AK or QQ betting as long possible b/c against these two hands you are a favorite and you will be against them at least 1/2 the time (14:12)

Raising the flop is a poor idea b/c it lets these hands of easy. You may want to consider a passive calling route while folding to an A or 8 on the turn or river. If you hit your King on the turn call and only raise if you fill up on the river. If your opponent does not have QQ. He has to suspect QQ to be a your likely holding . If the Queen falls on the turn I think an argument can be made for getting all the money in, but a better route might be to wait until the river and raise only if the board doesn't pair. Its 15:8 after the queens falls that you opponent is not holding AK (6 combinations AA + 3 QQ + 3 JJ+ 3 TT= 15) Which means if you raise the river all-in and get called you will be profitably over 60% of time. If checked to on the turn check behind-- no point in being check raised off your draws when your opponent has a set.

The general idea is to rope-a-dope the hands that you beat while conserving money against the ones that have dominated.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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Just reading this is making me sick to my stomach.

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Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

I wouldve moved all in pre flop. But you didnt, so, I wouldve called if I were you. What did you think he had?

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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You have to stop thinking about how much you are up each session. That will only lead you down a road toward losing poker. You have to play each hand the way it should be played.

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Yes and no. We can't allow our bankroll, or our current session up or down to influence our in-hand decisions. Which I admit, did contribute *slightly* to how I ended up playing this hand. One long game, make the best decision each time, blah blah blah, I agree.

However, one of the reasons I make a nice chunk of change at internet poker is because I quit winners. I don't say I am going to play x hours, or quit when I am up so many BB's. It's all by feel based upon table situation, my current attitude and image, etc. Poker is my only income right now, and my obligations are minimal, so I can play 24/7 if I want. This allows me to play 6 mini sessions spread out over the day if I choose too. Optimally I would like to win each session, each day, each week, etc. I do it all by feel, no set rules.

Here, I was up $160 on the session. I'm happy with that for a half hour's work. I was leaving the game either after this hand or after one more orbit because I had an obligation away from the computer to take care of.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Thank you blue, for a reasoned response. Most are agreeing I should have pushed preflop, and I agree to this. But I didn't and now I have decisions to make. I knew at the table that raising this flop was a bad idea, but I was leaning toward a check raise. I thought it thru after his raise, and decided to fold. My read on him was that the chances of him bluffing or making a continuation bet of that size, where very low. Although I think he would have just called me preflop with a non pocket pair, your analysis shows I am not dead in the water with the range I put him on.

TY for your response--aj

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Christ that's weak-tight.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

A 3xBB raise from UTG is not a good idea. vaarying your raises is great, but I wouldnt raise that small from UTG with KK. Youre going to get mulitple callers alot of the time and you are totally out of position. Not to mention the fact that alot of people will reraise you with things like AQ when you only raise to 3BBs and now its tough to figure out if they have a real hand or not.


Pushing preflop is normally not a great idea because most people will fold anything but AA. Although, this guy might not since you already saw him reraise with TT.

Since this guy DID already reraise with TT and he only has $120, I probably would push preflop so you dont second guess yourself on a flop like this.

Since you didnt push, I would fold now. Thats just me though. I like low variance. Pushing in isnt bad either, but your preflop play is what put you in this spot.

I think its pretty read dependant. He reraised with TT, but will he reraise with AK/AQ?

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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I wouldve moved all in pre flop. But you didnt, so, I wouldve called if I were you. What did you think he had?

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My read--Preflop, I was 80% certain he had a middle to high pocket pair, 99-AA. He was passive, and I think he would have just called preflop with a non paired hand, AK on down. I don't think he was capable of bluffing or making a continuation bet of this size. I checked with the intention of check raising if he bet small. When he bet semi-big, I was even more certain he had pockets 99-AA, so I folded. Turns out my read was right, he did have one of those pockets. Sadly, it was the only one I was ahead of at the time, QQ.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Your logic is flawed.

On the flop you've got six outs against every hand that he is beating you with (4 Q and 2K )and blockers to his QQ. Just get all-in on the flop and hope for the best.

Having six outs is not much to cheer about. If I thought I had six outs I would fold, not raise.

AK or QQ is just as likely as JJ TT AA.

99 should be included too.

Now at showdown both AK and QQ are going to beat you roughly 30% of the time. You are going to beat AA JJ TT roughly 25% of the time. This would changes the odds to 9.4 to 9 which means you will win this matchup slightly more than half the time.

Unimproved AK isn't going to showdown with you, unless you're planning to give him two free cards to get there.

Basically the idea is to keep something like AK or QQ betting as long possible b/c against these two hands you are a favorite and you will be against them at least 1/2 the time

I thought your plan was to go all-in on the flop? You can't have your cake and eat it too. Either you're blowing AK out on the flop and taking the worst of it against AA-99, or you're letting AK/QQ see more cards to try to catch up.

Raising the flop is a poor idea b/c it lets these hands of easy. You may want to consider a passive calling route while folding to an A or 8 on the turn or river.

Again, your initial plan was to get all-in on the flop.

If you check and call and try to improve your hand, you will continue to not have any clue where you are at no matter what comes. If you catch blanks then you still lose to sets and AA. If you catch a Q you lose to AK. If you catch a king you lose to QQ. You don't know what card you want to catch, and all of the cards that improve you put four to a straight on the board. This reduces your implied odds to almost nil. Once again, you are in a position to only get your money in the pot when your hand is no good.

Which means if you raise the river all-in and get called you will be profitably over 60% of time.

No one is going to value bet the river when any king makes a straight, unless they have a king. Even if they do bet it, they aren't calling a raise with it. Raising the river with an obvious one-card non-nut straight cannot possibly be +EV except against the absolute worst of fish.

It's not about having the best hand. It's about having the best hand when the money goes in. And this is not a good situation for it.

I would suggest that you reread TOP. Especially the sections on effective odds and reverse implied odds.

I don't see what the big deal is here. The guy tried to trap a little with his KK and make sure he extracted value from the hands he was beating. On the flop he's no longer beating most of the hands he was beating preflop, so he cuts his losses. It happens sometimes. You can't win em all.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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Just reading this is making me sick to my stomach.

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Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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[Wow], that's weak-tight.

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Yeah, preflop it sure was. I'm a super TAG tho, so I am not sure how that leaked out. After the flop, I stand by my fold though.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

looks good. a reasonable hand range for your opponent's holdings has you smashed at this point. leading into this pot just gets you into trouble since he can flat call with a wide range of hands that had draws to nut straights or with sets if he isn't afraid of a heart draw from you. i would need more confirmation on villain's preflop reraising range before i'm ready to dump 50bb's more with just an overpair.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

I didn't read the action as carefully as I should have. Obviously, the flop is a tough decision since the $30 is not an all in bet. I agree that you need to bet out or check raise this flop, but the entire situation is created by muddled preflop play.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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I don't see what the big deal is here. The guy tried to trap a little with his KK and make sure he extracted value from the hands he was beating. On the flop he's no longer beating most of the hands he was beating preflop, so he cuts his losses. It happens sometimes. You can't win em all.

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The big deal is that when a 60BB stack puts 20% of it in preflop, he's already trapped. It's crucial to fetch and clean the pelt before the meat goes bad.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

Just because someone didn't have the proper odds to suck out doesn't mean we are obligated to pay them off when they do. I tend to do it a lot, and I'm not so sure that I shouldn't have been able to get away from some of them. The most optimistic calculations so far show that Hero will defeat villian's range of hands 50% of the time at showdown. And as it has already been brought up earlier, some of the assumptions made in that calculation may not be accurate (specifically with regard to how likely AK is). Hero made a read on the opposition's range of hands and went with it. The math based upon that read ends up being close (when the probability of AK is reduced). At worst he lost a few dollars of EV by folding, at best he saved a few dollars. So once again, I don't see the big deal. There are surely more significant things to worry about.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

I agree the fold was hero's best decision in the hand.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

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However, one of the reasons I make a nice chunk of change at internet poker is because I quit winners. I don't say I am going to play x hours, or quit when I am up so many BB's. It's all by feel based upon table situation, my current attitude and image, etc. Poker is my only income right now, and my obligations are minimal, so I can play 24/7 if I want. This allows me to play 6 mini sessions spread out over the day if I choose too. Optimally I would like to win each session, each day, each week, etc. I do it all by feel, no set rules.

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why do you believe that you make more money playing poker if you quit winners? i am pretty sure you would win more if you would just keep playing (unless you get so scared that you can't continue playing good poker).

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

The reason he can push preflop is that villain already put in $20 or 1/6th of his stack. Villain will not have AA , 1 in 6 times so therefore, it is +EV , basically.

Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did't you move in preflop?

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Because I was being a wuss. I was +$160 on the session at that point in only about 30 minutes (I was only one tabling at this time), and was going to be leaving shortly. He was passive, and so I am thinking, win a nice medium sized pot after the flop. But this flop was the worst possible flop to have for the range of hands I was about 80% certain he had.

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Actually, you had already left. I know this feeling and I've felt it. If you are incapable of playing at your highest level, it's time to go.