common sickening river card decision...
 

2-4 6max 5-handed

I've been playing with villian for 50 hands and he's looking at a lot of flops and seems laggish. He has not PF raised alot and hasn't done anything unreasonable.

UTG (822.35) raises to 16, hero (541.70) calls with t [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] t [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], everybody else folds

pot ($38)

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villian bets 12, hero raises to 35 and villian calls

pot ($108)

turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villian checks, hero bets 100 and villian calls

pot ($308)

river: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villian hesitates for a second and pushes...Hero has $334 left.

I'm pretty sure i know the answer to this one but i want to make sure.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

I hesitate for a second than call

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hesitate for a second than call

[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you expect to be ahead?

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

this is a tough one...but i think i fold, he can very easily have the Ah, something like AJ or AQ.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

Fold.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you expect that i'm beat here?

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

I dunno, but i expect him to have the Ah very very often.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

if this is a dry A bluff, i will eat a bucket of glass.
PARTY 2/4!

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you expect that i'm beat here?

[/ QUOTE ]

At a wild guess, 80% of the time.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
if this is a dry A bluff, i will eat a bucket of glass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you are the man. Where are you from?

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if this is a dry A bluff, i will eat a bucket of glass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you are the man. Where are you from?

[/ QUOTE ]HOUTEX.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

come down and i will take you to some psyyycho 10/25 round of each games.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
HOUTEX.

[/ QUOTE ]

nevermind, not cool. [censored] texas.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
HOUTEX.

[/ QUOTE ]

nevermind, not cool. [censored] texas.

[/ QUOTE ]BE CAREFUL!

RESULTS:
 

I called and he showed me A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

As soon as i called i was extremely upset with myself because i knew it was wrong. It can be hard to lay hands down in the Party (400) game because there are so many donkeys. But i did not think this guy was a total donkey and therefore that bet had to be the nuts.....The reason i posted the hand is because i wanted to make sure i wasn't being results oriented.

Calling off chips on the river is almost without a doubt my biggest NL holdem leak. It's something i will be focusing on. Thanks for the replies.

Re: RESULTS:
 

This is a MAJOR leak in my game that I have been working on (to some success). I think I definitely need to up my 48.7% of WSD. What is yours Aggie? What is an ideal #?

Re: RESULTS:
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I definitely need to up my 48.7% of WSD. What is yours Aggie? What is an ideal #?

[/ QUOTE ]

My WSD is 46.4 which definitely seems low (and this is not a very big sample). I have no idea what the ideal # is but i think it would vary greatly depending on ones looseness.

I think there are several legitamate reasons for a low WSD that are not necessarily bad. Here are a couple i can come up with:

-I bet more on the river than my opponents. So when i have a big hand i try to get paid off big. My opponents therefore probably call slightly less often but i get paid off more when they do call. This leads to a lower WSD though

-My opponents often make tiny bets on the river (which are truly awful). I will be pretty darn sure i'm beat but they often lay me propper odds to call. again this affects my WSD.

I'm sure there are others but the point i am making is that I think it would be very hard to come up with a ideal WSD because that depends very much on one's style and the quality and type of one's opponents.

Re: common sickening river card decision...
 

I have a virtually identical thread right now elsewhere here, only it was live. I think it can be a very tough laydown since you know that your opponent knows that you weren't betting a flush draw, so they know you don't have the flush, and it's very easy to imagine a good, aggressive player pushing that river thinking you can't call without it. That would be my biggest reason for calling.

However, the last several times this has happened to me, they had it every time. Not enough people just have the balls for that kind of bluff and until I know that my opponent does from having seen them do it before, assume they got it.

Kirk