Hand against Numpty...
 

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Numpty is 27/18/1.9/39 over 27604. He is probably a 2+2er. He is capable of trying to isolate me. I'm not sure how he is going to react with the 3rd player all in. I don't really expect him to bet worse hands on the turn. I'm calling strictly for my draws.

Krishan

Converter error. There is a guy all in preflop.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

I'd bet the flop and call a raise.

Turn fine.

On the river, I'd bet and call a raise 100% of the time. I dont think your river fold is good, particularly based on datamined information, and given your read that he tries to isolate you.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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I'd bet the flop and call a raise.


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What is the point of a flop bet?

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

I play it the same, although I call the river, saying to myself "I only need to be good 1/12".... But I don't see what he is 3-betting that you beat, so it's probably a good fold.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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I'd bet the flop and call a raise.


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What is the point of a flop bet?

Krishan

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you win more when you spike a J silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i dont like the river fold either.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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I'd bet the flop and call a raise.


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What is the point of a flop bet?

Krishan

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you win more when you spike a J silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i dont like the river fold either.

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Why not and what is your river line? What hand is he 3-betting here that I beat?

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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I'd bet the flop and call a raise.


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What is the point of a flop bet?

Krishan

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you win more when you spike a J silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i dont like the river fold either.

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Why not and what is your river line? What hand is he 3-betting here that I beat?

Krishan

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my answer is the same as stigmatas really. KQ is of course that hand that i tell myself he has and i call. i try not to overthink situations like this on the river and just take the easy way out and call. or in other words, because i dont like the river and say that i call doesnt mean that i am right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

me = sucka

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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I'd bet the flop and call a raise.


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What is the point of a flop bet?

Krishan

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you win more when you spike a J silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i dont like the river fold either.

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If this guy is isolating you, a flop bet helps you know whether he has isolated you with a middle pocket pair, or a hand like AJ. The value of this is whether you can call/make a showdown bet if your K or Q pair.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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I'd bet the flop and call a raise.


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What is the point of a flop bet?

Krishan

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you win more when you spike a J silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i dont like the river fold either.

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Why not and what is your river line? What hand is he 3-betting here that I beat?

Krishan

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I think the question has less to do with "what is he three betting", and more, "what hand do I expect him to bet on the river?"

If he will bet any ace on the river, your checkraise makes an extra bet. But I think this is optimistic, since the only aces that he might bet on the river are AJ-AK, since any lower kickers have been counterfeited.

If he will check the river with KK or JJ or a middle pocketpair, or ace-no kicker like AT or worse, you lose a bet.

If you bet and he raises, you will beat all overplayed aces and big pocket pairs. Your bet on the river smells a bit like a bluff-donk on a paired board, so hands like AK might well raise for value.

Of course, if you are absolutely crushed by hands like AQ or TT, you still lose 2 bets, but you made it to showdown.

Therefore, I like betting the river and calling a raise.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

How much do you think it matters that a player is allin? I've been noticing (at 5/10 at least) that, when there's a third player allin, people have somewhat of a tendency to overplay their hands.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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How much do you think it matters that a player is allin? I've been noticing (at 5/10 at least) that, when there's a third player allin, people have somewhat of a tendency to overplay their hands.

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I agree a bit. I think he'll overplay his hand up to the river. But on the river I think he'll play more conservatively.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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How much do you think it matters that a player is allin? I've been noticing (at 5/10 at least) that, when there's a third player allin, people have somewhat of a tendency to overplay their hands.

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I agree a bit. I think he'll overplay his hand up to the river. But on the river I think he'll play more conservatively.

Krishan

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Wouldn't that argue for a river bet rather than a river c/r?

Rob

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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Wouldn't that argue for a river bet rather than a river c/r?

Rob

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I think he would value bet any ace. And I thought that was enough for me to cr. I think he would check behind with KK, JJ.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

betting the flop is complete and utter suicide

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

are the 4 combos of QJ possible?

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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are the 4 combos of QJ possible?

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It's a stretch. I'd discount to 10% at a minimum.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

ok if you're sure he's a reasonable, solid player that seems like a good fold then. KJ beats you too

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

Alright, here is my analysis. I think he'd 3-bet with KJs+, A9s+, ATo+ 66+. But I don't think he fires the turn with underpairs to the board, especially with the 1 guy all in. That narrows his hand range considerably.

I'm actually having second thoughts about the turn.

I think the river is tough. Some aces got counterfeit and there are still a lot of hands I'm behind to. I think bet/call, check-raise/fold both have merits.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

Yes, this turn would be a textbook spot for him to check behind KK/JJ/KQ/QJ if he can have it. So if you know he's good you should probably fold.

Board: Ad Ts 9c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 10.2691 % 09.27% 01.00% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 89.7309 % 88.73% 01.00% { AA, QQ, TT-99, A9s+, KJs, ATo+ }

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

kq and qj are definite hands here.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

I don't think this is a spot to save a bet and fold the river. I think you're getting the right price and folding strong hands in good size pots is not a spot I think you should be looking to make the big laydown generally. I like a bet/call or CR/ call 3 bet, but I like bet/call a tad more.

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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Yes, this turn would be a textbook spot for him to check behind KK/JJ/KQ/QJ if he can have it. So if you know he's good you should probably fold.

Board: Ad Ts 9c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 10.2691 % 09.27% 01.00% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 89.7309 % 88.73% 01.00% { AA, QQ, TT-99, A9s+, KJs, ATo+ }

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I agree. Pot is tiny. Villian had KJ.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

I like it start to finish.