Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

This just happened, and my mind was doing summersaults whilst the hand went down.

UTG (38/14) limps, Hijack raises (unknown), and button (27/12) threebets. SB mucks, and I call in the BB w/ AdKc. Four of us see the flop.

Flop comes 962, two hearts. I lead out. Yeah, I know this is hugely debatable, and maybe even flat out wrong. I'm trying right now to set myself up to win vs. another AK instead of chopping. Plus if UTG has a hand like QJ, I want him OUT. Da Soona Da Betta.

Instead, UTG raises, HJ and Button call two cold, and I call, wondering what I'm doing here.

Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here.

River is an offsuit ace.

I check and start licking my chops, thinking the button 3-bettor will bet his AQ and I can checkraise and do a little dance. But, alas, visions of me dancing get thwarted by UTG betting again.

Now, it's true that he may have Axh, so I guess I'm going to call him.

Hijack calls.

Button calls.

So I muck.

Comments?

Josh

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

I don't see how the hijack and button overcalls affect your decision to call the UTG bettor. Given that the turn was checked around, don't you think one of them would raise the river if they could beat TPTK?

I think folding here at 13:1 is awful

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I muck.


[/ QUOTE ]

You misspelled checkraise.

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

Hi Josh,

I'd be much obliged if you would explain why you mucked on the river?

thanks,
WT

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

bad muck josh.

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I muck.


[/ QUOTE ]

You misspelled checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

well put. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] i also like a checkraise/fold to 3bet line. with 3 players you have alot of equity and i dont know why you think a call doesnt have value, but since you think folding might be correct of course checkraising wouldnt be. so one of us is really confused by the value of our hand here.

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

Even if you don't checkraise, at least call here. By just overcalling, the other two players are pretty much assuring you that they don't have you beat. This is the best/2nd best card in the deck that could have came off for you, and you played your hand to get into this position.

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

I think the flop bet is pretty awful, but not nearly as bad as the river fold. I don't really understand what you were thinking on this hand.

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

I assume you posted this hand because someone had 2 pair or something, but as far as the action went the hand was played fairly backward.

~D

Quick thoughts, more later
 

The flop bet, as I said, is hugely debatable, maybe. I'm not sure that I can provide an adequate argument FOR the bet. I'll talk about it later tonight, maybe.

The river fold is easier to explain. I tried putting my opponents on hands. And, well, I ran out of aces in the deck. If I just had to overcall, I could do it, but by having to over-overcall, well, that meant that UTG couldn't have an ace. It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button.

But the problem is UTG...what does he have? Unless he is stone cone bluffing into a field of four when the worst possible card for him comes on the river (which I think he does way less than 1 outta 20 times, probably more like 1 outta 50 times), I'm hosed.

It's funny that everybody so far as criticized the river fold, but nobody has put anybody on a hand yet.

I probably need to have the best hand here at least 10% of the time to justify a call (because I'll be chopping a decent chunk of the time). And even if I was ahead this time, I don't think I'm ahead 10% of the time.

I tried putting them on hands, and I ran out of aces.

Josh

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Josh,

I'd be much obliged if you would explain why you mucked on the river?

thanks,
WT

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for the hijack...awesome avatar.

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is the best/2nd best card in the deck that could have came off for you...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is sorta true.

It's true that preflop (or even on the flop), I'd say "heck, the ace of purple horseshoes would sure be a splendid card right about now". No doubt.

However, by the time the river bet came around to me, three (not one or two, but THREE) opponents liked their chances of winning with that ace out there.

In fact, this could be THE WORST card in the deck for me. It's kinda like when you have QJh on a QJT9 (with the T9 of hearts) board. The betting is capped threeways on the flop and turn. The river is a king. THere's a bet and a call to you. Do you call or muck? Well, with a huge pot, you quite often call, right?

You get shown AK, and lose an extra bet. The King on the river made you call. It was a bad card for you, it cost you a bet. If it had been the 2c, it would have been a much better card for you.

Three people (besides me) thought that they could win with that ace out there. This means that three people (including me) thought that they could win with that ace out there.

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
I tried putting them on hands, and I ran out of aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

So UTG has a set or middle two pair and decided to try and CR the turn even through no one showed they liked that flop?

I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand to be honest, but I don't think it really matters because you are ahead of the other two guys enough here given their passiveness throughout the hand. Plus, given the utg's check on the turn I think you have an easy call in a large pot with TPTK.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG (38/14) limps.......Flop comes 962, two hearts.....I lead out. UTG raises..
Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to do the hands and could only come with 78s for UTG. I could see him playing it the same way and going for turn c/r. Maybe I'm wrong, but 38/14's do things like that.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

You didn't run out of tens and pairs in a huge pot from guys thinking that seeing a showdown is basically mandatory.

The problem is that you were going to call UTG, and then 2 guys basically tell you that you have them beat and add money to the pot, and then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did. No, the callers don't need aces when the pot is this big. There's nothing to run out of. And I've seen guys bet 6 high into a field of 5 when an ace hit since it -is- a "scare card."

~D

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

The dude plays 38% of his hands. You have to relax logical hand-reading against people who play 38% of their hands. Call the river. . .

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

"then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did."

I don't think this is so unusual. An ace comes, a guy bets, we figure the ace hit him. But now several other guys, who figure to have aces, call. If it's me, that decreases the possibility that the original bettor had an ace from what I figured were his chances of so having when he bet out. And since it's likely the others have aces, and it's likely he knows this, it's likelier that he can beat an ace.

Not saying it justifies folding, just saying changing the thinking about what the bettor might have in light of the two calls makes sense.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't run out of tens and pairs in a huge pot from guys thinking that seeing a showdown is basically mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but neither HJ nor button have those (they'd bet the turn), and they aren't calling with no pair on the river. So, that leads me to the same "what does UTG have?" question.


[ QUOTE ]

The problem is that you were going to call UTG, and then 2 guys basically tell you that you have them beat and add money to the pot, and then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, when the river came, I would have called utg. But before I had the chance, I had new information presented to me. Namely, the other two both had aces. UTG still thought he could win the hand. UTG could beat an ace. I chose to use this new information, information I didn't have when I planned on calling UTG.

[ QUOTE ]

No, the callers don't need aces when the pot is this big.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, this is absolutely true. In this case, because they obviously don't have a pair on the turn, they DO need an ace to call the river.

[ QUOTE ]

There's nothing to run out of. And I've seen guys bet 6 high into a field of 5 when an ace hit since it -is- a "scare card."

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, maybe UTG is bluffing here a naked bluff. But I think that it's probably less than 1 outta 20 times. And, I need to be ahead 1 outta 10 times to justify a call. River bets at 30/60 into fields of 4 are stone cold bluffs less than 1 outta 10 times. I don't think ANYBODY here denies that.

Josh

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

UTG is a 38/14 who limped preflop, then called two cold back to him. I'm going to assume he isn't the greatest player at the table.

As such, I can put him on hands like JTh, QTh, KTh, 98h, 97h, etc. He flopped a pair plus flush draw or two overs plus a flush draw, and therefore raised the flop. When his flush doesn't come, he checks the turn. Or maybe he pairs the T in addition to his flush draw and decides to check-raise. Then he refuses to acknowledge the A and bluff/value bets his weaker pair/ busted flush draw on the river.

Just because you (or any sane player) would never lead an ace high river in this situation with less than a pair of aces in your hand doesn't mean that UTG didn't.

Even given the likelyhood that you're splitting with one of your other opponents, you're getting a good 8:1 or so from the pot. I still maintain that UTG shows up with a stupid bluff or pair plus busted flush draw more than 1/9 times.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
"then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did."

I don't think this is so unusual. An ace comes, a guy bets, we figure the ace hit him. But now several other guys, who figure to have aces, call. If it's me, that decreases the possibility that the original bettor had an ace from what I figured were his chances of so having when he bet out. And since it's likely the others have aces, and it's likely he knows this, it's likelier that he can beat an ace.

Not saying it justifies folding, just saying changing the thinking about what the bettor might have in light of the two calls makes sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy, I love you. No, not in that way.

See, you don't play online (I don't think). You rely on getting information the old fashioned way...throughout the hand. Too many people on here (and I'm not singling out anybody, least of all Duke), gather all their information before the hand, in the neat little VPIP and PFR numbers. They see those numbers, then act accordingly.

There are no stats that I've seen that take into account post flop play. The information you can gather via postflop play is soooo valuable, and people just aren't used to using that information anymore.

Josh

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still maintain that UTG shows up with a stupid bluff or pair plus busted flush draw more than 1/9 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then we agree to disagree. No harm in that.

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
The dude plays 38% of his hands. You have to relax logical hand-reading against people who play 38% of their hands. Call the river. . .

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

I still say he bluffs the river less than 1 outta 10 times. His (preflop alone) aggression numbers don't indicate he's a degenerate bluffer.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]


So UTG has a set or middle two pair and decided to try and CR the turn even through no one showed they liked that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.

[ QUOTE ]

I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand to be honest, but I don't think it really matters because you are ahead of the other two guys enough here given their passiveness throughout the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, I definitely have the other two beat. I was going to checkraise the river if one of those bet. We agree on that.

What we DISagree on is the merits of being second best. Saying what UTG has doesn't matter because I can beat the other two is silly.

[ QUOTE ]

Plus, given the utg's check on the turn I think you have an easy call in a large pot with TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG (38/14) limps.......Flop comes 962, two hearts.....I lead out. UTG raises..
Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to do the hands and could only come with 78s for UTG. I could see him playing it the same way and going for turn c/r. Maybe I'm wrong, but 38/14's do things like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I just mentioned in my response to Philuva....a turn check is not necessarily looking to checkraise. It could easily be looking to allow a drawing dead hand (i.e. AK AQ AJ) to 'catch up' on the river. Betting the turn with the nuts (or two pair or set or whatever) will get a lot of these hands to fold, which is disasterous.

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

"Andy, I love you. No, not in that way."

Damn. Another bad beat.

The flop bet
 

Like I've said, I'm not going to be a big defender of the flop bet. But like the bet or not, I don't think anybody here will say it's horrible (at least not anybody who's EV conscious). As such, I hope it doesn't become too much of a distraction.

When I called preflop, I gave some merits to capping. Instead, I called, with the express purpose of being able to beat AK on a raggedy board. By calling preflop, I've disguised my hand somewhat (not a ton, but...). On a raggedy flop, I can take this pot away from AK because he'll think "oh, he's in the blind, he's likely got some of that". Or, on an ace high flop, if the other guys have AQ etc, I can bludgeon them with my kicker, which they won't suspect. So I just call preflop.

Now, here I am on a raggedy flop. It's unlikely HJ has me beat right now. About the only hand a reasonable HJ will have here that beats me is TT. He likely caps JJ or bigger, and likely doesn't have a 9, 6, or 2 in his hand.

So I bet the flop for value vs. HJ.

The button very likely has a pair. Given HJ raised and I have AK, if the button has a pair, it's most likely to be smaller than kings, so I have 6 outs (5, if an A or K is in HJs hand). By betting into the button here, I won't have to call an unimproved river vs. him, I'll be able to find out where I'm at. The bet I'm losing here will be saved later.

The question is with UTG. He plays a lot of hands. However, most of his hands won't hit that flop. Lots of QJ, KT, A5 type hands will now muck, which is just fine by me. One less opponent in a big pot is sweet. He also may have a small pocket pair, like 44. If he does, he may or may not call, but will be scared somewhat by the potential of a raise behind him.

Look, there are a lot of "maybes" "potential" "likely", etc. in this bet. I'm not trying to defend it here, so much as I'm trying to explain it. I could certainly check/call. I could certainly check/raise a button bettor. I could even check/fold.

I just wanted to share my thought process here. Even though the flop bet sticks out like a sore thumb, it's somewhat irrelevant, and not really -EV in any way shape or form.

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]

Not saying it justifies folding, just saying changing the thinking about what the bettor might have in light of the two calls makes sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point. I don't think I've explicitly thought about this before. Shows how weak my hand reading thought process is.

I've still seen too many LAGs make hopeless river bets after the turn is checked around though, despite the number of people in the pot. But I'm assuming mediocre postflop skills. If UTG is a reasonable postflop player, then a fold is in order.

Re: The flop bet
 

I think you make way too many very specific assumptions about your opponents hands and how they might play them on every street. You just can't ve that certain of how other people play.

Re: The flop bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you make way too many very specific assumptions about your opponents hands and how they might play them on every street. You just can't ve that certain of how other people play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must not have seen this paragraph in the post you just responded to:

[ QUOTE ]

Look, there are a lot of "maybes" "potential" "likely", etc. in this bet. I'm not trying to defend it here, so much as I'm trying to explain it. I could certainly check/call. I could certainly check/raise a button bettor. I could even check/fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The dude plays 38% of his hands. You have to relax logical hand-reading against people who play 38% of their hands. Call the river. . .

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

I still say he bluffs the river less than 1 outta 10 times. His (preflop alone) aggression numbers don't indicate he's a degenerate bluffer.

[/ QUOTE ]
This sounds like you think this but don't know for sure because you haven't played enough hands with UTG. And I think you need to have played thousands online against him to make this laydown. Also, you're getting ~13:1 so if he is bluffing 1 out of 10 times you have odds to call.
[EDIT: Well I guess button has AK 50% of the time and AQ 50% of the time. But if UTG has Ahxh say 2 out of those 10 times then your odds are 7:3 and the pot is offering 13-1. Even with the chop half the time that you win- I think you have odds to call. Not to mention if you are wrong in your read.]

You also said above, "Nobody can put UTG on a hand."
Sure we can.
Monster: set or straight that didn't want to lose anybody on the turn or was going to CR.
Two pair: A9 specifically, maybe A6 or A2 that got scared on the turn.
Hand you beat: Ahxh or a complete whiff

Button has an ace.
MP - no idea, but I don't care because he didn't raise.

You also wrote above
[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button.


[/ QUOTE ]
What do you mean at best? Do you mean at worst? Because the button and hijack have you beat about 1% of the time here.

[Edit to state I don't know what UTG but I think UTG won because Josh posted this hand]Now since you posted UTG probably had you beat this time but it seems to go back to basics. I'm not making big folds in big pots on the river without 98-99% certainty of my read.

If you were 99% certain then I think you need to state that - maybe you did and I didn't see it though. If you were 99% certain of your read then it was a good play win or lose. But if you were 99% certain and you folded and would have ended up winning then it's more likely that you (and by you I mean anybody) overrated your handle on the opponent -- than it was that 1%.

Thanks for posting a hand you probably knew you would get flamed for....it's always good to expand our viewpoints right or wrong, imo. And if you think I'm wrong let me know where.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

You have a lot in here I want to respond to, but so many quotes are making this cluttered. I'm going to try to get rid of some of them, but nothing critical (I hope!).

[ QUOTE ]

This sounds like you think this but don't know for sure because you haven't played enough hands with UTG. And I think you need to have played thousands online against him to make this laydown.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are right, I don't know for sure. But as I've stated throughout, I think he naked-bluffs here less than 1 outta 20 times (I think it's more like 1 outta 50). He'd need to bluff 1 outta ten times for my call to be justified.

[ QUOTE ]

You also said above, "Nobody can put UTG on a hand."
Sure we can.
Monster: set or straight that didn't want to lose anybody on the turn or was going to CR.
Two pair: A9 specifically, maybe A6 or A2 that got scared on the turn.
Hand you beat: Ahxh or a complete whiff


[/ QUOTE ]

AhXh is 'impossible' because HJ and button have aces. Of those you list, I beat only "complete whiff", and as I've said, I think he bets that here less than 1 outta 20 times.


[ QUOTE ]

You also wrote above
[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button.


[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean at best? Do you mean at worst?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what I meant. Just pretend I didn't write "at best".

[ QUOTE ]

Because the button and hijack have you beat about 1% of the time here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's less than that. I think maybe 0.1% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]

Now I'm sure UTG had you beat this time but it seems to go back to basics. I'm not making big folds in big pots on the river without 98-99% certainty of my read.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then you are losing money. In this spot, with this pot size, you only need 90% certainty.

[ QUOTE ]

If you were 99% certain then I think you need to state that - maybe you did and I didn't see it though. If you were 99% certain of your read then it was a good play win or lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I've said, it's actually 90%, not 99%, and I have stated it. I'm somewhere in the 95%-98% region.

Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, but they already called 2 cold on the flop, now they are reluctant to call 1 big bet on the turn?

Doesn't utg want to bet the turn if they are drawing dead because they will likely call a bet on turn while they are "drawing" but be reluctant to call a bet with bare Ace on the river. You need the parlay of them to be drawing dead and to make there hand on the river for it to be break even with betting the turn don't you?



[ QUOTE ]
Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be bluffing, he just has to have a worse hand than you. There's no way utg can have Ahxh? Couldn't utg have been raising the flop trying to clean up his Ace outs, then checking the turn to draw as cheaply as possible?

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

I like your basis for the flop lead sometimes, but I don't think you have the river right. I think it is much more likely that someone is betting/calling without an ace than UTG raised a set/A9/A6 on the flop and then didn't bet the turn when a blank came. He can reasonably expect a higher pocket pair to 3 bet him from the CO and button, so it probably isn't out there. His check is very bad if he has a set(since they have already cold called 2 on the flop). So bad, that I would reward him by paying him on the river.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

Sorry I edited my post - kind of wrote in a hurry - had a conference call at work.

Anyway, I didn't run the numbers with 95% certainty but it's probably an ok laydown because you chop half the time with the button.

Here's to hoping your read was on.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: Hmmm the more I think about this...and I don't say this often but, based on the way the hand went down it's almost guaranteed MP has AK/AQ/AJ and button has AK/AQ/AJ.
Which means you're right, there are no Aces left. So it comes down to how often is UTG betting into 3 players (albeit one has checked) and can't beat an ace? 1 in 20 might be right. Ha, given all that online I still make a "I can sleep at night" call. But only because I don't trust my reads past the 10% intervals yet: 90% certain, 80% certain. Maybe one day.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, but they already called 2 cold on the flop, now they are reluctant to call 1 big bet on the turn?

Doesn't utg want to bet the turn if they are drawing dead because they will likely call a bet on turn while they are "drawing" but be reluctant to call a bet with bare Ace on the river. You need the parlay of them to be drawing dead and to make there hand on the river for it to be break even with betting the turn don't you?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's not an exact science. But people 'take one off' on the flop with naked overcards A WHOLE LOT MORE than they do on the turn. If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.


[ QUOTE ]
Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be bluffing, he just has to have a worse hand than you. There's no way utg can have Ahxh?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think way less than 1% of the time, unless his "x" is the non-heart card on the flop. And even that is almost impossible. This is simply because there are only 4 aces in the deck. I've got one (100% certain), the board has one (100% certain), the button has one (over 99.9% certain) and the highjack has one (over 95% certain). I think that '95' for the highjack is also about 99.

So, if he doesn't have at least an ace, and has a hand worse than me, I call that bluffing. Perhaps he dillusionally betting K9 on the river, not thinking its a bluff. But I put that in the "less than 10% chance that he bluffs the river" category (even if he doesn't call it a bluff).


Josh

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I edited my post - kind of wrote in a hurry - had a conference call at work.

Anyway, I didn't run the numbers with 95% certainty but it's probably an ok laydown because you chop half the time with the button.

Here's to hoping your read was on.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: Hmmm the more I think about this...and I don't say this often but, based on the way the hand went down it's almost guaranteed MP has AK/AQ/AJ and button has AK/AQ/AJ.
Which means you're right, there are no Aces left. So it comes down to how often is UTG betting into 3 players (albeit one has checked) and can't beat an ace? 1 in 20 might be right. Ha, given all that online I still make a "I can sleep at night" call. But only because I don't trust my reads past the 10% intervals yet: 90% certain, 80% certain. Maybe one day.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I've never lost sleep over poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Seriously, I've tossed away winners in pots like this before (I used to put too much faith in my reads, so whereas it may seem like I'm doing that here, I've done it much moreso in the past), and it never lingers.

When I throw away hands like this as winners (which doesn't meaned flawed logic, though it often points to that), I often end up posting the hand here and getting showed the error of my ways. So far, I've yet to see any error in my ways here....I'm not convinced that UTG bluffs over 10% of the time here....

J

Re: Unusual AKo hand, 30-60
 

Anyone here with an ace is going to bet or call a bet here, regardless of what their kicker is in most situations. This pot is huge, and its also difficult for better hands to value raise weak aces in this kind of pot, and your opponents should know that. This river is an easy call.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

[ QUOTE ]
So far, I've yet to see any error in my ways here....I'm not convinced that UTG bluffs over 10% of the time here....

J

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that UTG could have Ax here (Ax hearts maybe?), and one of your other two opponents could have a horribly misplayed pocket pair that didn't turn into a set.

The button certainly has an ace to overcall the hijack, but the hijack could have less than a pair of aces, given that the turn was checked around.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

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The button certainly has an ace to overcall the hijack, but the hijack could have less than a pair of aces, given that the turn was checked around.

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Just in regards to what hijack could have....
There has to be a huge parlay for hijack to not have an ace here which means UTG doesn't have an ace:
1. No way he has JJ/QQ/KK - I have never seen one player at 30/60 play the hand this way.
2. a ten - without out another pair - like J10 - so you have to hope he called 2 cold on the flop with a J high pair draw with preflop 3 bettor yet to act
3. a nine - like J9 same comment in addition to the fact he didn't bet the turn once everyone else showed weakness
4. 77/88 you have to hope he thought UTG had a missed flushed draw and that nobody else would call.

Out of all of these I think a hand with a nine in it is the most likely candidate for hijack to have that doesn't contain an ace but still probably less than 2% of the time.

So in other words I thought it was a really bad fold at first but hand analysis shows it's a least a close call (in my opinion). But I still call in case UTG is an idiot and because I don't do this detailed of an analysis at the table.

Re: Quick thoughts, more later
 

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If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.

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This analysis is terrible. He raises his impossibly strong hand on the flop, then checks it on the turn (cuz he "knows" you will call on the flop but not the turn, that's a special kind of fish that will call at 7:1 and fold at 11:1, then call the river)? Maybe, but that's the least likely scenario. What about the flush draw, just let him see the river for free?

I'm sure you posted this hand to show us how brilliant you are, so why don't you post the results, because your arguements don't seem logical to me. And that's why I don't think it's a good river fold.