Strong hand facing river overbet
 

Villian seems fairly loose but decent. He's 29/13 after 221 hand. We played a very similar hand to the one below where i checked behind on the turn with a strong hand, he overbet the river and i paid him off (he had a set)....That's all i know about him though.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) converter

BB ($400)
UTG ($170.10)
MP ($305.30)
CO ($403.95)
Hero ($400)
SB ($342.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $20, UTG folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($58) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, BB calls $40.

Turn: ($138) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($138) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $160</font>

Hero? Comments on all streets welcome.

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

Bump

Okay, since i haven't gotten a response yet let me post a couple thoughts. With no read i would quickly call this river. The wrinkle here is that i have noticed villian overbet in a similar situation and he had the goods. So i have a read based on 1 hand. Is that enough to allow me to laydown this hand?

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

If he's thinking about the game, I would be more inclined to call this time. Unless he is thinking on the 3rd level, and figures that you will call again.

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

he cant have "the" goods since you have Ac

btw, aggie, you bumped your post after 30 mins. just thought you should know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

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btw, aggie, you bumped your post after 30 mins. just thought you should know

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Please get it right...It was closer to 40 minutes

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

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he cant have "the" goods since you have Ac

btw, aggie, you bumped your post after 30 mins. just thought you should know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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the goods can mean different things to different opponents ....in this case, it can definitely mean a set. hero checked behind the turn when the flush card came, almost a sure sign of weakness to almost any villain.

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

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he cant have "the" goods since you have Ac

btw, aggie, you bumped your post after 30 mins. just thought you should know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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the goods can mean different things to different opponents ....in this case, it can definitely mean a set. hero checked behind the turn when the flush card came, almost a sure sign of weakness to almost any villain.

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Yes, but why bomb the river w/ a good hand if you sense weakness?

Anyway, the overbet is disconcerting, but I would pay off anyway. its worth noting what he has in the future, too.

I think pf-&gt;river were played very well too

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

fold. If he has the Q, hes not betting like that. If he was If he has 99 or something, same deal. Only thing he could have been on is 4d5d type hand, missed his straight. But if y he's on that, he probably bets turn if hes going to bluff.

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

push

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

I'd fold. As stated earlier, the straight draw is the only hand you beat.

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

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push

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Yeah do it you pussy! Nonone calls here without the ace. Haha.

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

Id fold. Looks like a flush that misse the turn CR

Results and thoughts
 

I called, he had K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and i lost. Interesting that you're suggestions were pretty split. I think it's pretty close. Given the information i had at the time i'd probably call again.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

Re: Results and thoughts
 

I really hate making folds like this but am strongly in favor of folding the river, no real in depth reasoning other than getting &lt;2:1 you have to be right a lot.

--turnipmonster

Re: Results and thoughts
 

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

Re: Results and thoughts
 

so obviously he went for a CR on the turn because he felt you were strong enough, and he also knew he didnt have the nut flush. the K-10 call preflop is pretty loose though.

I think he got you to call and that was great but he also didnt get max value for his hand.. so you can look at it two ways.. you playing as cautiously due to the information you have on him saved you some $$.

do you think you could have gotten him off the hand on the flop? what did you think he could possibly hold with a call of that bet on the flop?

by you checking on that turn you obviously were a little scared off by the 3rd club and then you called on the river after you missed a betting round. so with that in mind you should give yourself a pat on the back for a good read.. BUT you denied your first instinct and called on the river anyways.. i think you played it well if you were pretty sure he had the flush.. but if he even holds AQ you miss a lot of betting there.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

Sorry you posted the results before I could get my 2 cents in, but here goes anyway.

First, there seems to be a lingering difference of opinion re: 6-Max auto-rate rules. I get mine here: 6-Max Link which makes this guy tight. The difference is one of starting hand selection. So what kind of hand range can call your flop bet?

The last point that continues to fascinate me is what I refer to as the "Pussy Rule" which says this is a clear fold. Fold here, and fold to the previous overbet where you paid him off.

Natedoggs (TAFKAn) Rule of Thumb

Re: Strong hand facing river overbet
 

that is an interesting observation.

as he stated before about the villain being a possible sneaky intelligent player.. but thats like saying my gf is a sneaky sweet person.

im a little confused by the poster saying he plays relatively loosely and then turns up the knowledge against him.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

ok so he has the flush made here..

and you're telling me that you're folding here just because last time he took the lead and he had it, and hes decided to do the same exact move that you're gonna fold this hand here 70% of the time? that doesnt sound right to me.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

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Wow. Back to math class.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

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Wow. Back to math class.

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for those interseted:

The pot is $298 and it's 160 to call...We're getting 1.862-1 to call
If we're ahead 35% of the time (according to ahnuld), that means we're 13-7 dogs and we need to be getting 1.857-1 to call. Which we are!

Seems to be a call by the narrowest of margins.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

Sure. That math looks about right. I dont mind a call because of the odds, but I dont think you win much more than 30%. Thats why its a close call and this thread was split. I wasnt really being contradictory, just a little lazy

Re: Results and thoughts
 

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I think 30% air, 60% flush, 10% some other hand, which you are ahead of 50/50

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If that's the case, it's interesting you advised a fold

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Why? You need to be right more than 50% of the time to make this call. From those percentages you are right 1/3.

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Its very scary to me that someone who would make that kind of mistake posts frequently here giving advice on poker.