An interesting J6s hand.
 

Played this hand the other day and was looking for some feedback. It was largely read/player/stack sized/situationally based. So pay attention to the details before flaming me.....

The situation: Deep in an MTT. 650 started - 60 left. Hero has a big chip lead at the table and a 3x average stack size at 64k. (avg 22k or so) Hero is in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Blinds 2k/4k.

The players:
MP2 -been at several tables with MP2. He has been consitently raising heros BB - even from earlier positions with small low risk 2-3x BB raises. Hero has been giving it up like a little girl but is waiting for a chance to play back at him. MP2 Has 26k in chips.

CO - Played solidly so far. 24k left
Button - 24k. Has not shown anything crazy.
SB - no real player read

The hand: MP2 opens for 2x the BB 8k. CO cold calls for 8k. Button cold calls 8k. SB calls 8k. Hero is BB and the pot is 32k + 4k (hero's BB). Hero has everyone at the table covered.


Reads: MP2 was raising light. I think the table knew that and had similar reads on MP2. CO could have a small pair or suited connectors. Button and SB are playing speculative hands. The pot is huge.

My thinking - no one can bust me here. 20k would hurt but certainly not cripple me. I want this pot right now. MP2 did not want all this action and should fold. Button and SB both are playing speculative hands and will probably fold. I do not think anyone has a big pair JJ, QQ, KK, AA. We would have seen more action preflop. I can call 4k and check fold any non-favorable flop. OR I can push and try to take it here. If I get called by 77,88, 99, TT - I am not that bad (68/31 ish). If I get called by AQ, AT - I am not that bad (65/35 ish). AJ would be bad (70/30). If someone slowplayed AA,KK - really bad - except at this point I dont think any of the player involved would have played those hands this way. Everyone in the pot has about 18-20k left and might not be ready to risk their entire tournament this deep. I don't think anyone has much of a hand. I think I can get a few folds. If I get one caller I might not be that bad off. The pot is freaking huge. I think making this huge squeeze play has a good chance of working. At worst I will get the pot heads ups and a 70/30 dog. I have a decent chance of winning a huge pot.

Hero goes all in with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Re: An interesting J6s hands.
 

Good play! Squeeze play...

Fold or all-in, do not call... Even with 1 call, you get good odds unless against higher PP or Aj, KJ or QJ (only AJ may call you...).

Also, you are big stack and won't be out if you loose.

Re: An interesting J6s hands.
 

Yeah I like the play especially since you only risk @ 1/3 your stack at most even if called and you probably have a lot of FE, though i would not be surprised if one of the cold-callers calls with something like AQ.

A call would be fine too.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

I dont see how you expect anybody to fold when they have 1/3 of their stack in the middle already.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how you expect anybody to fold when they have 1/3 of their stack in the middle already.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is more of a reason they might fold. Most players involved in the hand will still have average stack sizes if they fold. No one has shown any real strength and everyone appears to have hands that would like to see a flop in a multiway pot. Anyone with a solid hand would probably have pushed preflop with those stacks and a 2x raise.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

A call is better.

MP2 is going to call getting 3.2:1 even if he has nothing. At least one other player is going to call, maybe two or more given the sweet pot odds. Because of the huge overlay hero is EV+, but because of his weak hand he is unlikely to win in a multiway pot.

Your better off seeing the flop getting 9:1 on your call than pushing and having:
23% equity 3 way
19% equity 4 way
less five wys

its always EV+, for hero because of the overlay, but not that EV+ (maybe T2000), but he doesn't need to gamble his commanding stack here with j6.

Conversely many of the players will wish to gamble here with hands like 77 etc.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

You definetely getting called by at least one player. If it folds to the button/sb even most bad players realize the prize they're getting. If you're pulling this because you expect to take it down preflop, it won't happen. I would rather call and hope to flop something sexy.

Re: An interesting J6s hands.
 

This squeeze play won't work. I expect the whole table to call. MP2 is getting 3-1 odds to call, Co then gets 4.5 odds and so on. What you have done is create a huge pot with J6. This is not a squeeze play, it's chip urination.
for squeeze play to work, you need very tight image and players without good pot odds to call.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

by "prize" I meant "price."

Re: An interesting J6s hands.
 

[ QUOTE ]
This squeeze play won't work. I expect the whole table to call. MP2 is getting 3-1 odds to call, Co then gets 4.5 odds and so on. What you have done is create a huge pot with J6. This is not a squeeze play, it's chip urination.
for squeeze play to work, you need very tight image and players without good pot odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, if the blinds had been 500/1000 and you were going against a minraise in this situation it could be good, but this is just a pretty bad misapplication of a squeeze play.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

I do not like the play.

I'm making an occasional squeeze play with two other players in the hand, not four.

You are going to get called. The pot odds are simply too good.

You will be giving around 3:1 (more really) to call. Are FOUR players who have already willingly put money in this pot ALL going to fold?

I doubt it. Call and make a play after the flop if it is favorable. If it's not, get out of the hand. I'm not bluffing four players here no matter what my stack size looks like.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

This is pretty bad.

You have to consider the odds your opponents will be getting if you push.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather call and hope to flop something sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

And squeeze plays are better when you don't have a hand that can flop something sexy. 93o is a better squeeze hand thatn 87s or J6s because with the latter hands you can take your FAT pot odds, quietly outflop everyone, and get your money in later.

BettyBoop already nailed why the squeeze is bad here, so I won't water-down that sweet explanation with redundancies.

Everett

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

Yeah, Betty is correct. This could be a call, but I don't like the squeeze - even if MP folds, the button or SB will be getting 3.5-ish to 1 to call. You're not getting away with it here.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

Some of you have said just call. Without a doubt this hand is definately a instant call. I can understand wanting to see a flop but there are not many flops that will make J6s hold up against 5 players. If a jack flops I am no good - a flush and I am still worried. 2pair - mabye good.

I did not really see this hand as a squeeze play in the HOH traditional sense. I wanted to put alot of pressure on the other players in the hand. Based on my reads I felt this pot was mine for the taking. If I dont take it down preflop I am not that big of a dog against my opponents hand ranges. I just cant see the hand going call, call, call, call. The all-in is definately not going to be all around. It will be heads up at worst. My tournament was not at risk and I would still be a big stack. If I win the pot my stack will easily take me to the final table.

Some of you had pointed out the odds the other players were getting. Each had about 18k left and the pots was 50k at that point. What hands woiuld any of you call all in with there? Even if you are getting 3:1 it is your tournament on the line. What hands do you call with if you are MP2? Or CO? What hands do you put me on?

I was representing a real big hand. You could put me on AK, JJ+. I could not see anyone calling with 88, 66, JTs, 89s, QTo or similar low pair/suited connector hands. I definately felt at worst I would get the pot heads up against AQ, AK, TT, or 99.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

So when do we find out what happened?

I say just call, too many people close to crunch time, and why do you need to attck 4 players at once at this time? And if you're so unpleased with the prospects of calling, then maybe just fold. But then again I'm no pro.

Also are you the same user name on PS? If so I think we've been in a few SNGs together.

And hey if you get a chance I'd love to hear your take on my problem.

thanks,
suzzer

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

I like the push. Mathematically you stand to gain:

I computed everything in BB with the average stack at 5bb. Looking back now I realize it should be 5.5bb, but... I'll have to re-work it later.

First the probability of wining I used:
J6s vs 1-rand = 0.5060
J6s vs 2-rand = 0.3268

Case 1:
Everyone folds x% of the time, you get called (1-x)% of the time.

you push, they all fold: x*9
you push, 1 call, you win: (1-x)*16*0.5060 = 8.096(1-x)

BE: 9x + 8.096(1-x) = 8.096 - 0.904x > 4, for all x


Case 2:
ALL fold x%, (1-x)/2 you get 1 call, (1-x)/2 you get 2 calls

you push, they all fold: x*9
you push, 1 call, you win: (1-x)*(16/2)*0.5060 = 4.048(1-x)
you push, 2 call, you win: (1-x)*(19/2)*0.3268 = 3.105(1-x)

BE: 9x + 4.048(1-x) + 3.105(1-x) = 7.153 - 1.847x > 4, for all x

So in both case 1 and 2 you don't need anyone to fold.


Alternativly:
J6s vs AQ+,TT,99 = 0.3375
J6s vs QQ+ = 0.1670

I think the important thing is your reads on people in this hand and would allow for about a 5% chance you're reads are off: J6s vs 1 caller = 0.95*0.3375 + 0.05*0.1670 = 0.3298

Case 1 (re-visited):

you push, they all fold: x*9
you push, 1 call, you win: (1-x)*16*0.3298 = 5.2636(1-x)

BE: 9x + 5.2636(1-x) = 5.2636 - 3.7364x > 4, for all x > 0.3381

If everyone folds 33% or better and you get one caller with a strong hand the rest of the time you come out ahead. Unless I've made a big error I say the push is +EV.

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

What if you get 2, 3 or 4 callers, which would seem to be a very real possibility in this situation?

Re: An interesting J6s hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So when do we find out what happened?


[/ QUOTE ]

Results

I go all in. MP2 folds as expected. CO calls with AKs. Button folds. SB folds. My J6s v. AKs for a 60k pot. I outdraw his ass like any good fish. My stack is huge and I finish 3rd. This wound up being a high-risk play for alot of chips. I am still not sure what was correct.

I am still curious as to what hand ranges you guys think the opponents should call here with? Button was getting 4:1 and SB the same (60k:18k). Do you call with 88? TJ?