Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Villain is 18.6/8.2/2.76 over 185 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">8 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6 BB

I used to show this stuff down.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

If the A does not fall are you still calling the turn....I'm pretty sure I am not. I think you played correct.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Nice hand. You saved 2BBs. I think you're folding the winner here at best 15% of the time.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Great, I thought I was getting weak and letting TAG SB have his way with me.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Great, I thought I was getting weak and letting TAG SB have his way with me.

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This is how I would play too. Am I weak for folding a turn blank?

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Sometimes. This situation is really hard because it comes up so rarely in full ring. IMO There are 2 big questions.

1) what % of hands is Villain raising preflop?
2) what will Villain 3-bet?

The answer to 1) may be anywhere from 25% to 100%. This matters a lot.

2) is trickier. Hero's flop checkraise doesn't need to be a hand, especially if 1) is true. Villain might 3-bet any pair or draw, and some A-high hands, hoping to pick the pot up on the turn UI. If Hero has shown the tendency to c/r and fold turn UI to resistance he is especially vulnerable. Then again, Villain's 3-bet might necessarily indicate a big draw, better 8 or T.

Equity changes drastically. In one scenario you might cap the flop or raise the turn, and in another you need to check/fold the turn UI. Think about it: Against a big LAG you probably want to show down your pair. Now consider how much a good, aggressive TAG in a HU pot really differs in this spot.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

If you're confident that you're behind every time you can fold a blank. But 6-1 + implied odds is pretty good if all 5 of your outs are live (AT is a possible villain holding here). The problem is once you call the turn you probably should pay off on the river if it also blanks. I think it's a close decision.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

There's no way I'm folding this hand.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

a lot of the decision here also comes down to your image at the table at this point. you can certainly fold the turn here early in your session, before the whole table knows you're tight. but if you're starting to feel like its known that you're tight, you need to start calling down more than you'd like - it will pay off at this point because bluffers will be betting into you more.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Damn I made a bad laydown. I think.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Damn I made a good laydown. I think.

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Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Damn I made a good laydown. I think.

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Yea, limit holdem is all about finding big laydowns. Get real.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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The problem is once you call the turn you probably should pay off on the river if it also blanks.

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This isn't a problem, if we can make 2 +EV calls in a row it's good thing. But the first call isn't +EV so it depends on whether or not the 2nd one is.

I agree some players goes crazy hu and might 3-bet the flop with A-high (or even worse). It seems like calling down is close.
EDIT: after making some calcs it seems like calling down is easy...

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Nice hand. You saved 2BBs. I think you're folding the winner here at best 15% of the time.

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According to my calcs we only need to have the best hand about 13-14% of the time to justify a calldown.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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According to my calcs we only need to have the best hand about 13-14% of the time to justify a calldown.

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The simplified version is that you have to call twice and invest 2 BB to try to win 7, so you need to be good 2/(2+7) or 22% of the time.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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According to my calcs we only need to have the best hand about 13-14% of the time to justify a calldown.

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The simplified version is that you have to call twice and invest 2 BB to try to win 7, so you need to be good 2/(2+7) or 22% of the time.

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You're not taking the chance of hero improving into consideration.

The complicated (and correct) way of calculating:

We improve 11% (5/46=0.11) of the time.

x - 0.11x = 11% (we need to be ahead an additional 11% to reach 22%)
0.89x = 11% -&gt; x = 12%
EDIT: x = the probablity of being ahead

Then I added some since sometimes he will check the river with A-high (this also makes calling the turn and folding the river an option), but if we're ahead 15% of the time we should call down. We're also getting some impleied odds, but maybe they almost cancel with the risk of being up agaist AA/TT/AT (they don't entirely do).

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Yea, limit holdem is all about finding big laydowns. Get real.

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Get a dictionary, dude. Good =/= big. This isn't some awesome big lay down. He's not folding a set or something. He's folding a pair of 7s after fielding a lot of aggression. Jesus.

Calling station.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

It's a heads up pot between blinds. I don't understand what you're not understanding.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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You're not taking the chance of hero improving into consideration.


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You also have to take into consideration the possibility that villain is behind and improves his hand to a winner.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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You're not taking the chance of hero improving into consideration.


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You also have to take into consideration the possibility that villain is behind and improves his hand to a winner.

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You're correct, that was actually another reason I increased the precentage we needed to be ahead, but I forgot about it when I wrote the post. Besides it's much better to include it in the calcs, thanks.

0.87x - 0.11x = 11%
0.76x = 11% -&gt; x = 14%

This is assuming he'll have 6 outs on average and that hero and villain don't improve at the same time. I think 5 outs is a decent estimation since PP's, overs, gutshots, flushdraws and oesd are all possible.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

There are lots of flush draw, straight draw, or pure bluff hands in your opponents range here with that board. So I don't think you can fold that turn.

Because of that I like a turn raise - you can fold easily to a 3bet or river bet (you have represented a really strong hand with this line), could possibly get him to fold a better 7, and can bet the river if you improve.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

I'll say this one more time, any line that involves finding a way to fold this hand is NOT THE RIGHT LINE.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Why?

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

Empirical evidence.