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-   -   I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=386538)

11-28-2005 01:24 AM

I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero????

Surfbullet 11-28-2005 01:29 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.

Surf

sthief09 11-28-2005 01:35 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
i think the turn is too cute. i guess you feel like no one has anything and by betting you will get 2 folds. you certainly cant count on the button to bet. hes not that aggressive and he is super loose which means its likely he calls the flop with nothing.

the river i think is a fold. button's play is exactly in line with a flopped boat. if the pot were bigger id call since you have a strong board kicker. as it stands here, the pot isnt so big, you are hoping to chop, and you have 2 semi-sane players going to war.

so youre getting 10-2 or 12-3. you need to have each of them beat 40-50% of the time. i think the button is 50/50 having a flopped boat or AK. do you beat the SB 1/3 of the time? well i think you chop with him pretty often. maybe half the time you lose, half the time you chop. then you win .5*(.5*.5) = 1/8, so youd need 9-1 if thats right

sthief09 11-28-2005 01:39 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i see AK from the button a lot here.

augie00 11-28-2005 01:40 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
i call 2 more cold and curse my rotten luck/play

DcifrThs 11-28-2005 01:42 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal.

that is to say. bet the freakin turn.

Barron

11-28-2005 01:43 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
Thanks Barron,

I'm not saying whether I called or folded yet, but I'm glad someone took the flip side or there wouldn't be much discussion here.

This decision was TOUGH.

I am fish 11-28-2005 01:44 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I would have played the hand a lot faster. I would have probably raised the flop, especially if the button is so loose. I sure as hell would have bet the turn if I just called on the flop. I mean there were some draws on the flop so I think you can get some action.

Also if you play it faster you'd have a better idea where you're at by the river imo.

Lmn55d 11-28-2005 01:46 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

11-28-2005 01:48 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
It's a call for me, though I expect to grimace now and then as a better 5 or pockets 77 shows up. The way it was played I don't really put anyone on a 5, nor KK or QQ. I'd guess most of the time someone hit top pair with the K and someone else made 2-pair.

If it were 3 bets to me cold, I'd probably fold. But at 2 bets I just can't fold trips here.

sthief09 11-28-2005 01:49 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal.

that is to say. bet the freakin turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]


the turn check makes it harder to fold. the button checked last to act, now he raises? the sb apparently whiffs on a checkraise and now check-3bets. plus hes not getting great odds, and there is a parlay effect which is huge

sthief09 11-28-2005 01:54 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

[/ QUOTE ]


i can understand the logic behind it. the pot is tiny, the sb has pretty much thrown up a white flag, and the button probably doesnt have anything either. theres not much to call with on that board, so hell risk a free card in exchange for someone taking a stab for him

the main reason id bet there (and raise the flop too) is because i take shots at lots of pots and id like to show down that i play trips the same. there are some players who always check in unraised pots with a big hand and often take stabs with nothing. its not hard for even a novice hand reader to see this

Surfbullet 11-28-2005 01:55 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

me too. I forgot that in my original reply. I play these types of hands fast unless I expect my opponents to fold overcards too easily, in which case I play everything fast.

Surf

11-28-2005 01:57 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
It's a call for me, though I expect to grimace now and then as a better 5 or pockets 77 shows up.

[/ QUOTE ]
A5 is the only better 5.

Lmn55d 11-28-2005 02:01 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
you make some good points, but I think sb is calling more than you think he is. I could see his flop bet/turn check as being an OESD or flush draw and he doesn't want to get raised on the turn. I also think the poor playing button will call with a lot of hands that he wouldn't bet (include A high hands that he didn't raise preflop b/c his PFR is 5).

I also agree that this should be a fold despite hero's failure to define his hand. The combination of a loose passive raising (I don't think he raises a king too often there) and a nonmaniac sb check/3betting doesn't seem to bode well.

Subfallen 11-28-2005 02:04 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
Call, not close? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

baronzeus 11-28-2005 02:12 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the turn is a pretty significant mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

mscags 11-28-2005 02:17 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
Well I would have bet the turn here, but see as you didn't I think you need to fold this river. I think someone has you outkicked or is full.

Spicymoose 11-28-2005 06:16 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I don't see what is so tough about your decision. You have to pay 2 to try to win 8 or 9. That means you you need to be good 1 in 5. Button surely doesn't have trips. SB might have you beat, but he could also have a 5 that you chop with, or some other random crap.

As others have said. Bet the turn.

Nietzsche 11-28-2005 09:05 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see what is so tough about your decision. You have to pay 2 to try to win 8 or 9. That means you you need to be good 1 in 5. Button surely doesn't have trips. SB might have you beat, but he could also have a 5 that you chop with, or some other random crap.


[/ QUOTE ]
The odds are a lot worse than that. He may have to pay 3 and even when he wins he will be splitting this small pot most of the time. I lean toward folding this one (not positive it is correct though). And yes definitely bet the turn.

MAxx 11-28-2005 10:30 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
It looks incorrect to be slowplaying trips here. I think that error is more important than the river decision IMO.

MarkL444 11-28-2005 10:34 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
im just going to say whats been said already that the turn check sucks on a board with both a flush and straight draw against a SB and very loose limper.

TStoneMBD 11-28-2005 11:20 AM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

sthief09 11-28-2005 01:43 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[/ QUOTE ]


a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time

Danenania 11-28-2005 02:02 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I would tend to raise the flop. Represent a vulnerable hand to mess with SB and the loosey will still call 2 with pairs, aces, and a bunch of other hands. After calling you just have to shut him out on the turn anyway (plus plenty of turns can kill your action).

Turn check is very bad. SB has something but is afraid of the Q. Button is 75/5. At least one of them is calling, often both. Don't think Button is betting very often.

River looks like an easy fold to me. Elaborate slowplays from multiple on-the-passive-side players = you're toast (and the odds aren't good).

B Dids 11-28-2005 02:17 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I want to know more about the SB.

Is he willing to check trips on the river hoping that one of you finally shows an interest in the pot?

Is he completing with 77 in this spot? KQ? A7? Seems like his raising range should be pretty large, given that he's got a chance to get HU with a pretty massive donk (allbeit OOP).

I have a really hard time seeing us being good and thanks to playing the flop and turn in a pretty loathesome manner, the pot is small enough that you can fold.

luckyharr 11-28-2005 02:20 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
Because of the lack of turn aggression, I think your opponents could be going to war here over who has the better king. The SB looks like a somewhat reasonable player and I can't believe he would try for a turn c/r with 75 or 77 and then go for a check/raise again on the river after whiffing the turn. The button was last to act on the turn and chose not to bet, then raised you on the river. I think this indicates the river helped him and the only hand that improved to beat you would be a strangely played KK. Sure, you are going to see some horribly slowplayed hands at showdown some of the time but getting 9-2 and a likely 5-1 with a button overcall makes this a call in my opinion.

I think you should have bet the turn.

BottlesOf 11-28-2005 02:32 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
How do we feel about a flop raise?

MrBig30 11-28-2005 03:16 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I just cant believe how many think a river fold is correct. We have trips in a 3-handed game and the turn was checked through for crying out loud. MAYBE we lose this more than 50% but not by much (a split seems likely), and no way do we not have the odds to see the showdown IMO. Also consider if necessary the tilt-factor of quite possibly folding the best hand and losing a whopping 10BB. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

bugstud 11-28-2005 03:33 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[/ QUOTE ]


a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see why anyone has him on a 5 for calling once and checking the turn. Sometimes someone is full, other times they have KQ AK K7 blah blah blah. Had you bet the turn, I think you can make a case for a fold.

baronzeus 11-28-2005 03:47 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
How do we feel about a flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate it, why shut out the button? but we just gotta gotta gotta bet the turn. i mean seriously. the turn check was so bad IMO...i see josh's arguments but i still think it's godawful especially since button is likely coming along with his pair.

sthief09 11-28-2005 03:50 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think its an easy call with the turn check considered.

[/ QUOTE ]


a bunch of people have said easy call but provided no justification. would you like to be the one to explain to me why its so easy? fwiw i still think its a fold because both opponents have us beat some portion of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see why anyone has him on a 5 for calling once and checking the turn. Sometimes someone is full, other times they have KQ AK K7 blah blah blah. Had you bet the turn, I think you can make a case for a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


neither player is aggressive, and i doubt either is tricky/smart enough to think that no one has anything and take a shot like a check-3bet. one of them slowplayed something. i can admit the button will often have AK, but KQ is not likely. people do not often slowplay pairs but will slowplay a boat like this.

i think people dont realize the effect of a parlay like this one. both players very well might have us beat (though they are dependent on one anoter and that's important), and we will only win the % of times beat beat the SB TIMES the % of times we beat the button. if it's 50% and 33%, thats not good enough.

Surfbullet 11-28-2005 03:55 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
The fact that we chop most times we don't lose makes our odds much worse as well.

Surf

sthief09 11-28-2005 03:57 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How do we feel about a flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate it, why shut out the button? but we just gotta gotta gotta bet the turn. i mean seriously. the turn check was so bad IMO...i see josh's arguments but i still think it's godawful especially since button is likely coming along with his pair.

[/ QUOTE ]


i really dont think its as bad as you guys make it out to be. granted i would bet but i dont think its as bad as everyone makes it out to be.

ill try again to see if at least people see some merit in it, and if not, ill shut up about it. taking the players individually. an average aggressive SB bets out 3 ways into a 755 flop. thats usually a draw, pair, A high, or maybe sometimes a complete bluff. then he checks the turn. i think that the vast majority of the time he is done with this hand, but he might be coerced into betting the river if everyone checks.

now look at the button. he will call that flop with probably at least 90% of his range, and probably closer to 100%. so we cant just put him on a pair. even these terrible players will stop chasing their J9 on a board like this. but he has some aggression in him so maybe he will take a stab at it. and if not, we maybe can let them catch a pair to pay us off with.

the underriding concept is that the pot is small compared to the size of the bet. when this is the case our priority shifts from winning the pot to winning extra bets.

*one thing i have been thinking about lately is our opponents implied odds. for example, if we let the SB catch a gutter, it will likely cost us 3-4 bets. so in our attempt to gain a bet, not only did we lose the 3 BB pot but we lost 3 BB in implied odds. so we have to be more careful in general, because the real size of the pot for our opponent is the money in the pot + the money theyll take of our stack if he hits. this applies here and is probably a good reason to bet*

baronzeus 11-28-2005 03:58 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
one thing i thought was that the flop was Q55 and not 755. yes, im pretty sure button comes along with anything, which i didnt consider originally.

Lmn55d 11-28-2005 04:04 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
dont you think this sort of sb checks the turn with a flush/straight draw a lot?

sthief09 11-28-2005 04:06 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
dont you think this sort of sb checks the turn with a flush/straight draw a lot?

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah actually this has to be the #1 reason to bet. he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn

BottlesOf 11-28-2005 04:48 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that bad? Will you generally bet a turn UI against 2 out of position?

sthief09 11-28-2005 04:53 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he is exactly the type of player to bet the flop with a draw then check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that bad? Will you generally bet a turn UI against 2 out of position?

[/ QUOTE ]


in an unraised pot like this, ill probably take another stab. for some reason, they will make looser calls than if there was a PFR. its like the chances you have AA makes up for the fact that the pot is twice as big. ARBITRAGE. pump the pot, win just as often

Drontier 11-28-2005 05:17 PM

Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
 
I must be going insane. I was thinking this is a definite cap. I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time. Buttons hand looks like K7 or AK and his AF and PFR is very in line with these 2 hands. Maybe even KJ or smaller. I think we definitely have button beat over 85% of the time. I think sb is the real threat. He whiffs a checkraise on the turn and tries again on the river... But he bet the flop. Hes doing something extremely fancy or he has air/misclick/KQ. Even K7 works for him. A 75/5 player with his AF could easily be reconsidering betting his 7 again in fear of a raise from a 5 or someone hit the Q. Then when its checked through, he could have hit the K and figured his hand is easily good? I'm having a very hard time putting sb on ANY hand. But if hes a 75/5 (probably meaning he doesn't think like the rest of us) I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.


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