I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

SB plays over 60%of his hands, and raises about 3% of hands preflop, postflop he seems decent, and has AF 1.4

When he c/r me on the turn i knew I was behind, but figured I was probably good enough to continue... What does Hero do at the river?Raise, Call?Fold?
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="orange"> Hero? </font>

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

I am new to 6-max, but is A9o a raisable hand UTG?

I would fold the river, I think we are beat here often enough when the villian goes for the check raise. In 6-max I tend to not fear the raisers on the flop as much as I do the call, check-raise. You are almost alwasy beat on a call check-raise line from villain.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
SB plays over 60%of his hands, and raises about 3% of hands preflop, postflop he seems decent, and has AF 1.4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's really really aggressive postflop for someone who plays 60% of his hands.

[ QUOTE ]
When he c/r me on the turn i knew I was behind, but figured I was probably good enough to continue...

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by that? Did you have odds to chase your 3-outer? Was there enough doubt where you could call the check-raise? What hands did you put him on?

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

I fold pf. However, since you played...

The pot is super tiny on the turn, he c-r'ed a pf raiser with an A and a Q on board. He should put you on a relatively robust holding given your raise UTG and he doesn't seem to care. Given your read, I fold.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

You think you're behind on the turn but not 100% sure right. I figure these are his likely hands (in order of likelyhood (is that a word?)
2 pair without A, 2 pair with A, TPGK, TPNK,trips,made straight, a draw

On the river you now have QT beat but not much else in that list. I think you fold. I think my second choice is raise and fold to a reraise.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think my second choice is raise and fold to a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, an awful play. You can show it down and save a BB by calling.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

It was only 5 players playing, so A9o UTG with 5 players is a raise according to my chart.

I put him on 2 pair to be honest..Queen and either ten or seven and I thought either, Ace, Nine, Either ten or seven would help me

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

I raise this pf 5 handed UTG too.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

taking that line I guess you at least call then right?

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
taking that line I guess you at least call then right?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, would anyone raise the river though?

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

Well let's figure this out with some card frequency crap (assume 2pr or better on the turn):

QT (9 ways) - you're ahead now

Behind against...
KJ (12 ways)
Q7 (6 ways)
A7 (4 ways)
TT (3 ways)
77 (1 way)

So ahead 26 ways, behind 9. You'll win 9/35 ~ 25% of the time. Pot's offering you 8.5:1. Looks like a call.


And I also raise A9o UTG in 6-max, but I think it's close. I'm more likely to do it in a tight game.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was only 5 players playing, so A9o UTG with 5 players is a raise according to my chart.

I put him on 2 pair to be honest..Queen and either ten or seven and I thought either, Ace, Nine, Either ten or seven would help me

[/ QUOTE ]

Of those two pair hands, how many do you now beat?

Edit: And how many still beat you?

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

If you call this turn you have to call this river

the lines you can pick on turn/river to a check-raise are:

1. bet/fold
2. bet/call, check/call

bet/call, check/fold isn't a good option, as you shouldn't be calling the turn bet if you don't call the river

I pick #1 as a default (and will barely use #2 in this situation)

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am new to 6-max, but is A9o a raisable hand UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

ATo is raisable UTG 6-handed so A9o is borderline. However since this is 5 handed A9o is definitely raisable.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

You're also behind against AQ, and AT. I'm still saying fold.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
When he c/r me on the turn i knew I was behind, but figured I was probably good enough to continue... What does Hero do at the river?Raise, Call?Fold?


[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't make any sense to call the check/raise if you're going to fold on the river.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're also behind against AQ, and AT. I'm still saying fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops, yeah, I should've included those. I did intentionally leave out AA/QQ and AK. I figure that they're a wash with AJ, and all seem unlikely given the action.

QT (9 ways) - you're ahead now

Behind against...
KJ (12)
Q7 (6)
A7 (4)
TT (3)
77 (1)

AQ (6)
AT (6)

Now you win 9/47 times. ~20%. I'm still calling.


EDIT: I should say that all this is for the river. Whether to call the turn is a different story, when you're only getting 6.5:2 to call down.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

you lose to AK/AT/AQ/Set/Trips/straight
You split with most other things.

Hmmmmm call and cry.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

I'm sure this has been said, but you can only call the turn raise if you're calling the river as well, b/c you're not getting odds to call to improve your hand.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

Yes it is if you are CO+1.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

but should you call the turn given that? On the turn you gotta figure you're gonna have to
1)pay 2 bets
2)hit a A,9,7,T,or Q to continue and of those none of them are giving you the nuts so they're all partial outs.

How many outs do we give each? There are 2 Ace's and 3 of each of the others left. I'd say it would be generous to give each card more than 1/2 of an out each. That would give us 2.5 outs. A clear fold on the turn. Is my thinking correct here? Should I even be thinking of this problem in this way?

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

Either fold to the turn CR or call the river.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
but should you call the turn given that? On the turn you gotta figure you're gonna have to
1)pay 2 bets
2)hit a A,9,7,T,or Q to continue and of those none of them are giving you the nuts so they're all partial outs.

How many outs do we give each? There are 2 Ace's and 3 of each of the others left. I'd say it would be generous to give each card more than 1/2 of an out each. That would give us 2.5 outs. A clear fold on the turn. Is my thinking correct here? Should I even be thinking of this problem in this way?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I went back and edited that all of what I was saying went for the river. It gets tricky on the turn because you have to factor in how often you'll improve and how often he's bluffing. If you think he never bluffs and he wouldn't pull a check-raise with something like AJ/AT or worse, then you're right - it's a clear fold there.

Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
 

The inflection point in this hand is roughly when the pot is offering 10.3:1 (I assumed that the villian has two split, a set or trips). This means that you have to call the turn check/raise when the pot is at least this big...even if you know that you are behind. You then call the river if it improves your hand and you fold when it doesn't. I call it an infection point because there is no way for it to be profitable when the pot is below that critical value and vice versa. Currently the pot is 6.5:1 after the check/raise, so you don't have odds to see the river if you assume that you are always beat here.

So in order to continue you have to give some probability to either semibluff or a worse ace. If he could have neither you have to fold here. Even if he could be on a semibluff you will still have to fold sometimes because it implies that you have to see a showdown.

So let's say that you are a 10:1 dog 90% of the time and a 4:1 favorite 10% of the time. Your pot equity here is 16%.

EV = .16*9.5bb - 2bb = ~ -0.5bb/100

So in this case you would have to fold eventhough you are giving the pot away to a semi-bluff 10% of the time. These are the types of plays that you should be making against other people.

Edit - Call the river in the hand you present.